5-point rule

**ebbearsfb1** · 12-14-10, 10:57 PM

[COLOR=#000000 !important]this game looks scary all of a sudden[/color]

you know the total wasn't 160
????

[COLOR=#000000 !important]I got it at 186...going to be close! Lucky asses[/color]

if u call 159 or 27 points off the total close

**ebbearsfb1** · 12-14-10, 11:00 PM

would of easily went under the alternate line as well

**mlb** · 12-14-10, 11:46 PM

haha what were you guys sweating out in a sub 160 point game?

**lyon804** · 12-14-10, 11:50 PM

Not sure anybody actually recorded this but for record keeping purposes I will do it.

Philidelphia @ New Jersey Under 191.5 Winner

So far 1-0 on fading a 6.5 pt move. Anybody else that sees these moves in the future please post them here so we can track them and see how it turns out. Pinny line movement recorded below.

TOTALS - OVER/UNDER
12/13 15:04 185 +100 / 185 -110
12/13 15:06 185 -110 / 185 +100
12/13 15:07 185½ -107 / 185½ -103
12/13 15:12 186 -110 / 186 +100
12/13 16:36 186½ -107 / 186½ -103
12/13 18:05 186½ -110 / 186½ +100
12/14 00:06 186½ -116 / 186½ +105
12/14 00:10 187 -111 / 187 +101
12/14 00:43 187½ -106 / 187½ -104
12/14 01:10 187½ -113 / 187½ +102
12/14 01:11 188 -108 / 188 -102
12/14 01:34 188 -114 / 188 +103
12/14 01:51 188 -110 / 188 +100
12/14 02:17 188 -117 / 188 +106
12/14 02:18 188½ -112 / 188½ +102
12/14 02:31 188½ -108 / 188½ -102
12/14 02:32 188½ -107 / 188½ -103
12/14 02:34 188½ +100 / 188½ -110
12/14 03:15 188½ +104 / 188½ -115
12/14 06:15 188 -101 / 188 -109
12/14 07:01 188 +102 / 188 -113
12/14 07:07 187½ -104 / 187½ -106
12/14 07:25 187½ -110 / 187½ +100
12/14 08:15 187½ -105 / 187½ -105
12/14 08:17 187½ -103 / 187½ -107
12/14 08:19 187½ -101 / 187½ -109
12/14 08:25 187½ -105 / 187½ -105
12/14 08:31 187½ -107 / 187½ -103
12/14 08:35 187½ -113 / 187½ +102
12/14 08:39 187½ -110 / 187½ +100
12/14 08:51 187½ -115 / 187½ +104
12/14 08:52 188 -105 / 188 -105
12/14 08:53 188 -110 / 188 +100
12/14 08:54 188 -105 / 188 -105
12/14 08:55 188 -107 / 188 -103
12/14 08:58 188 -110 / 188 +100
12/14 09:05 188 -116 / 188 +105
12/14 09:07 189 -105 / 189 -105
12/14 09:30 189 -107 / 189 -103
12/14 09:51 189 -115 / 189 +104
12/14 09:59 189½ -110 / 189½ +100
12/14 11:00 189½ -113 / 189½ +102
12/14 12:26 189½ -115 / 189½ +104
12/14 12:45 189½ -123 / 189½ +111
12/14 12:50 190½ -112 / 190½ +102
12/14 12:54 190½ -111 / 190½ +101
12/14 13:01 190½ -112 / 190½ +102
12/14 13:10 190½ -110 / 190½ +100
12/14 16:03 190½ -113 / 190½ +102
12/14 17:05 191 -108 / 191 -102
12/14 17:17 191 -103 / 191 -107
12/14 17:18 191 +100 / 191 -110
12/14 17:44 191 -101 / 191 -109
12/14 17:58 191 -104 / 191 -106
12/14 18:01 191 +103 / 191 -114
12/14 18:03 190½ -102 / 190½ -108
12/14 18:04 190½ -105 / 190½ -105
12/14 18:05 190½ -107 / 190½ -103
12/14 18:07 190½ -110 / 190½ +100
12/14 18:09 190½ -113 / 190½ +102
12/14 18:10 191½ -102 / 191½ -108
12/14 18:12 191½ +102 / 191½ -113

**BelieveTheHype** · 12-14-10, 11:53 PM

The Mavs/Bucks game opened at 186.5 and went to 183 the other day and went well over. Not quite 5 points, but worth noting.

edit:

The Miami Heat/Hornets game opened at 184.5 and went to 188 and went under.

Portland/Memphis opened at 192, went to 187.5 and still went under.

**BettingWizard** · 12-14-10, 11:58 PM

should also keep a seperate tally on how often a middle happens.

**demens** · 12-15-10, 01:21 AM

This is the 4th game this season that this happened in iirc. 1 was the LB game NoCon pointed out. 1 was yesterday actually in the Portland vs Memphis game and 1 dont remember but i remember it was a loss.

The record is 2-2 in the 4 games.

As for this game, the outcome was heavily impacted by NJ missing 2 important players. 1 is about to get traded and was inactive about an hour before tip, another got hurt literally 2 minutes before tip. You may think the 2 of them suck but to understand the impact they have on games you have to look at who their replacements are so just trust me. THEY MAKE AN IMPACT. The line did not reflect neither player being out. Imo this result is a fluke cause it was impacted by a very unexpected situation.

Also, the 5 point rule is a bit idiotic. Not trying to offend, i mean the structure is idiotic. You may find a game that fits this rule. Place your bet 30 seconds before the line closes and your large bet moves the line back .5 at closing and the game doesn't fit this rule anymore. It doesn't even have to be your bet just the fact that within seconds this game doesn't fit the rule and your bet is already made and its made based on the rule. Another reason why i think its silly is because different books have different line. You can have the Greek, Bookmaker, 5dimes with a game that moved 5 points and Pinny will have it at 4.5. To me that game fits the rule just fine theoretically but technically it doesn't.

But lets keep track, should be interesting.

**demens** · 12-15-10, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by BelieveTheHype

The Mavs/Bucks game opened at 186.5 and went to 183 the other day and went well over. Not quite 5 points, but worth noting.

edit:

The Miami Heat/Hornets game opened at 184.5 and went to 188 and went under.

Portland/Memphis opened at 192, went to 187.5 and still went under.

It has to be 5 points or more, the other games dont matter. And the portland game closed at 187, maybe not at Pinny but i saw it all over the place at 187.

**demens** · 12-15-10, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

should also keep a seperate tally on how often a middle happens.

Should also keep track of which direction.

But really, with over 60&, i think its like 65& something of the game going UNDER recently. Is it the 5 point rule that worked on the Nets UNDER and didn't work on the Portl OVER...or did both games just go UNDER because 2/3 game in the NBA are going under right now and it had nothing to do with this rule?

**lyon804** · 12-15-10, 01:29 AM

Demons...no sense to get all worked up over it.. We are tracking it only to see if there is any validity to all these opinons. As for as the player or players missing.. what does it matter? I could understand if NJ only played with 4 players but they missed the total by a mile.. It wouldn't have mattered anyways..

**demens** · 12-15-10, 01:41 AM

I'm not getting worked up, just pointing out we should take under consideration when evaluating this. I wanna track it too to see how well it works, or doesnt.

As for the missing players, i think i've told you this before. When its Quintin Ross and Stephan Graham playing in their place, it matters BIG TIME. Its actually pretty comparable with playing with just 4 players. Even Ben Uzoh got some playing time tonight.

(all be worth it when Melo comes......shhhhhh)

**lyon804** · 12-15-10, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by demens

I'm not getting worked up, just pointing out we should take under consideration when evaluating this. I wanna track it too to see how well it works, or doesnt.

As for the missing players, i think i've told you this before. When its Quintin Ross and Stephan Graham playing in their place, it matters BIG TIME. Its actually pretty comparable with playing with just 4 players. Even Ben Uzoh got some playing time tonight.

(all be worth it when Melo comes......shhhhhh)

Nice grey text

as for what I bolded... I respect you know your team bro, but I don't know if Michael Jordan could have made up for the 40+ pts the total went under by, just putting that out there.

**No coincidences** · 12-25-10, 12:40 PM

Potential for two more coming later today:

MIA/LAL opened at 196 and is now at 192.5. If it drops to 191 before the tip, play the over.

POR/GS opened at 198.5 and is now 202.5. If it rises to 203.5, play the under (I like the under here regardless).

**$Burm$** · 12-25-10, 01:08 PM

Good work NC. Merry Christmas, hope your having a good holiday.

**No coincidences** · 12-25-10, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by $Burm$

Good work NC. Merry Christmas, hope your having a good holiday.

Same to you!

**t-wizzle** · 12-25-10, 01:26 PM

Heat-Lakers Under went from 196 to 191. Do we still apply the rule even though now some money is coming in on the over?

**No coincidences** · 12-25-10, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Heat-Lakers Under went from 196 to 191. Do we still apply the rule even though now some money is coming in on the over?

Hadn't realized it had reached the 191 mark already.

I'd wait and see, t-wizz -- though I do think the over is the play here.

**flocko76** · 12-25-10, 01:46 PM

So this theory works both ways on 5 point movement?

**CarmeLO15** · 12-25-10, 09:33 PM

GSW @ 202.5 on pinnacle.
if it hits 203 before tip-off should we go for the under pal ?

**No coincidences** · 12-25-10, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by CarmeLO15

GSW @ 202.5 on pinnacle.
if it hits 203 before tip-off should we go for the under pal ?

Rule only applies if it gets to 203.5.

**CarmeLO15** · 12-25-10, 10:01 PM

why is that ?
the line opened at 198 @ pinnacle

**CarmeLO15** · 12-25-10, 10:02 PM

or maybe i am wrong..
thanks

**No coincidences** · 12-25-10, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by CarmeLO15

why is that ?
the line opened at 198 @ pinnacle

Actually, Pinny's opening number was 200.

**lakerboy** · 12-25-10, 10:04 PM

Don't forget it only applies on the closing line.

**CarmeLO15** · 12-25-10, 10:08 PM

aha.
and the closing line is somewhere around 22:35 - 22:45 ?

**No coincidences** · 12-25-10, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Don't forget it only applies on the closing line.

Yeah -- the Heat/Lakers total did dip to 191, but it didn't close there so the over wasn't applicable.

You playing the GS/POR game, LB?

**ronjon619** · 12-25-10, 10:12 PM

it's a bunch of horse sheit.

**demens** · 12-25-10, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Yeah -- the Heat/Lakers total did dip to 191, but it didn't close there so the over wasn't applicable.

You playing the GS/POR game, LB?

You realize this is a load of bs right? I said this before and noone really answered.

If you make your bet 20 seconds before the tip when its at 5 pts and then it closes at 4.5, what then? You made the 5 pt bet didn't, but it doesn't count because the line didn't close there? Meh.

**lakerboy** · 12-25-10, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by demens

You realize this is a load of bs right? I said this before and noone really answered.

If you make your bet 20 seconds before the tip when its at 5 pts and then it closes at 4.5, what then? You made the 5 pt bet didn't, but it doesn't count because the line didn't close there? Meh.

Thats right and its called being beat by the closer, gambling 101. At that point you dont bother checking the result. MAng.

**demens** · 12-27-10, 03:30 PM

There will clearly be a game that applies tonight. Char vs Det its damn near a 10 point move.

Was there ever someone keeping track of this btw? I dont think there's been a game since the thread started i remember people wanted to keep track results of when the total moved up vs when it moved down and so on.

**ronjon619** · 12-27-10, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by demens

There will clearly be a game that applies tonight. Char vs Det its damn near a 10 point move.

Was there ever someone keeping track of this btw? I dont think there's been a game since the thread started i remember people wanted to keep track results of when the total moved up vs when it moved down and so on.

do you mean the total in that game? I see an open of 189 and currently it's sitting at 193.5 at Pinnacle. Most of the posters in this thread have a hard on for Pinnacle, so I'll use their line.
so a 5 point move = the play is fade the move right? So if Pinnacle gets to 194 the play should be the UNDER.

**chimp** · 12-27-10, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by ronjon619

do you mean the total in that game? I see an open of 189 and currently it's sitting at 193.5 at Pinnacle. Most of the posters in this thread have a hard on for Pinnacle, so I'll use their line.
so a 5 point move = the play is fade the move right? So if Pinnacle gets to 194 the play should be the UNDER.

i'll be playing the over

**demens** · 12-27-10, 04:42 PM

Yes, except Pinny opened at 187.

Other places had it at 184.5 (pregame, not sure what they refrence, Vegas or LSsometyhingsomething (dont recall the name

)

The under makes sense to me here. 193 is a hell of a lot of these 2 scrub teams. 1st game under a new coach, but i dont recall the guy being a fast pace style coach, Cavs were 14th and lower the 2 years he was there with Lebron.

Not that this play even requires thinking, this all all line movement bet. I'm not a big fan of those so i'm overthinking it but i still like it.

**ronjon619** · 12-27-10, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by chimp

i'll be playing the over

Im not playing it, but so would I.

**ronjon619** · 12-27-10, 04:46 PM

I don't see 187, but that equals a 5+ point move, so the LEAD PIPE LOCK should be the under. Thanks you gave me a reason to watch the 2 worst teams in the Association go at it tonight.