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I won money every single day last week and today was my first losing day but even then it was not bad because i bitched out and hedged on the heat and mavs.
tomorrow is a new day but i am not a big fan of the card for NBA ML bets. looks like I will be buying points to create big spreads again.Comment -
I think I lost all I won today betting Dallas on the ML. Did anybody else get hosed tonight?Comment -
Damn you Dallas, everyone else came through but you, @#$!Comment -
Friends, some days you're the dog, and some days you're the tree. Today people with the Mavs were
on. Many great opportunities for you to get it back and a lot more this week. Keep your chin up! It's a long season yet!
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Your never totally safe. If you only had two tonight and Dallas was one of them, you lost. I had all four tonight and lose with that game.
Yesterday I tried it with all 4 (I didn't care if they were home favorites just 7.5 point favorites) And won. Sometimes it works, tonight it didn't. I also did it with football and had 4, all of them won.
JamesComment -
dallas' habit of letting garbage teams stay in the game finallly caught up to them
they inexplicably lost to memphis at home earlier in the year (memphis is something like 4-9 on the road) and it happened again tonight. They should have won this game by 20 points
unbelievable, that absolutely killed meComment -
Dallas screwed everything up tonight but you can't really be shocked by that. So many times there will be that 1 team that screws ya. You just gotta be safe with parlays and not make them too big and you will be fine.Comment -
this was the first straight up upset of an awful road team playing a great home team I think all season long
I can't think of another upset like this actually
edit: actually, it was the 2nd. Dallas also lost to memphis at home earlier in the year
goddamn it, I had a bad feeling about this gameComment -
I disagree. It's definitely not the first or the last. In fact, Dallas has lost to Washington, Cleveland, Memphis, and Houston at home already. They were early on tho. It's gonna happen again though. Upsets are just part of the game. I also had a bad feeling about this game. I still think the Mavs are sketchy. They had been on a winning streak but it wasn't always pretty, like their game at Sacramento.Comment -
It's actually Memphis, Denver, Chicago, and Milwaukee, but your point is a good one, Herd. Dallas has only lost 5 games this season, but 4 of those are at home. We need to be extra careful with those twits.Comment -
Only really solid looking ml game tomorrow is the fakers but they might be too pricey.Comment -
Some good college teams at home tomorrow but I suspect they will be very high (like Louisville, who is -1400 at The Greek). Might employ your strategy of mucking with the spread tomorrow. I tried that tonight with four teams for the fun of it, and 3 of the 4 lost! Might not be my thing but it was fun to do.Comment -
I would go with wright st and atlanta tomorrow...Comment -
wright state seems like a huge trap to meComment -
Big loss on Monday -$2000
YTD 4-2 +$1560
Tuesday
$3000 to win $14,600
RR x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7
Phil -110
Charlotte -190
Atlanta -170
Houston -525
Denver -110
Lakers -360
Golden State -165Comment -
Suggestion
This discusses using 2 pick parlays only.
If you can do it this way, and not everyone can admittedly, make your parlays as two pick. At most books you can set up a round robin by 2 across all the teams you like. What this does is give you every possible 2 pick parlay across the listed teams. The better way to do a group of parlays is to bet them all to win the same amount, but I have not yet found an online round robin bet that would let you set them up that way so you have to do it by hand. If you use a local you can probably set the bet up that way. After I wacked my local I have had a hard time finding a new one but I digress.
You can create your own round robin by hand and I usually do it that way. I posted today's round robin the way the online books will force you to do it. Here is an example of a 3 pick round robin where you bet each game to win the same amount.
Charlotte -190
Houston -525
Lakers -360
Charlotte Houston -122 Risk $1220 to win $1000
Charlotte Lakers -105 Risk $1050 to win $1000
Houston Lakers -192 Risk $1920 to win $1000
Here, we have risked $4140 to win $3000. If one team loses we lose two bets and win one bet. Let's say that Charlotte loses, then we lose $2270 and win $1000 for a net loss of $1270.
Now lets do the same 3 plays in a 3 pick parlay to win $3000.
Charlotte -190
Houston -525
Lakers -360
We risk $2270 to win $3000.
Now if Charlotte loses we lose $2270.
Doing the parlays by 2 instead of by 3 is less risk.
Now, if 2 teams lose then the by 2 strategy really blows. We lose $4140. I have been doing this a long time and very rarely will you have 2 high odds teams lose in the same day. Over an entire season the x2 parlay strategy is better.
This is a risk management strategy and in gambling risk management is everything.Comment -
DAM !! something about the state of TEXAS.. this year when i did my college football parlays Texas killed me.. i was in 2 $4K NFL Survivor office pools this year and lost both cuase of the dallas cowboys, n of course last night Dallas Mavs killed me... DAM YOU TEXAS and your sports teams..
but we cant give up do to 1 loss... what are u guys looking at today?
what are the plays tonight (my thoughts)
bet
Den 90% at home vs Orl 60% on road
hou 60% at home vs Sac 20% on road
Golden 50% at home vs Minn 8% on road
pass
atl 66% on road vs Phil 60% at home
Char 45% at home vs Tor 25% on road
wash 60% at home vs Lakers 58% on roadComment -
atlanta and houston are absolute money
houston has blown out the last 4 bad teams they have played at home and the kings are the worst team in the league when they face good teams
atlanta has been terrific on the road, has been terrific overall (8-2 last 10 games) and the pistons have been atrocious their last 10 games (I believe they are 1-9 their last 10 games with the only win being against a collapsing cleveland team)Last edited by brahmabull117; 12-14-10, 01:45 PM.Comment -
Hedge parlay
Okay, so I have that crazy play going, risking $3,000.
Here is a solid play to win $3,000
Houston -450
Atlanta -190
2 pick parlay -116 $3480 to win $3000
Question: Are the odds makers on crack? Atlanta is -190 vs Detroit?
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there are 3 fantastic spread picks today
Washington + 10.5
Atlanta - 4.5
Houston - 9
the lakers have only 1 win this season on the road by more than 13 points, the rockets have won their last 3 home games vs bad opponents by 10+ points and pistons are just awful right now
so what I'm doing is I'm gonna buy 3 points on all 3 games
Wizards +13.5
Rockets - 6
Atlanta - 1.5
it's + 300 odds and I think it looks to be a very safe thing. Even if wizards get blown out at home (which is unlikely cause their worst home loss has been by only 8 points), they could very easily just backdoor that. In terms of Atlanta, they should cover that easily. And the rockets game?? sacramento could be playing without Tyreke Evans so they should easily lose by 10+ pointsComment -
Yesterday I teased Florida Atlantic to +9, UC Davis to +21.5 and Wisconsin-GB to +25.5 and cashed in on a small play ($150 won me $330).
Today, I think I'm going to go a little larger and do a ML parlay on LA Lakers, Louisville and Pacific ($500 to win $818.88).Comment -
I would be really careful on an ML parlay with the lakers
they are only 7-5 on the road and could easily by 6-6 (beat the clippers by 1 point). Over the last 2 seasons, the lakers are a combined 30-25 on the road. This is a team that simply doesn't care to try too hard during the regular season in meaningless games like this on the roadComment -
OkayComment -
True, but their 7 wins on the road have come against the Nets, TWolves, Bucks, Pistons, Kings, Clippers and Suns. Clips always play them tough and besides the Suns and Bucks, their beating lesser opponents on the road so far this year. I think I'd throw the Wizards in that category and don't expect that to change tonight. I do think Washington covers the spread though; they're tougher at home than on the road by far.Comment -
still at a -1000 line, the lakers are a terrible value considering there is a real risk of them losing
I think if the lakers and wiz play in this situation a 100 times, the lakers will win 85-90 of out a 100 times....at a 1000 line, that's not good value
you only take a 1000 line if the team in question would win 99 out of a 100 timesComment -
I'm looking ahead to tomorrow, what are you guys thinking??
I say
Heat
Hornets
76ers
Spurs
maybe Bulls
bulls are on a tear and raptors are struggling, so that may be a fantastic value (bulls may even be underdogs in that one)Comment -
I played a couple of the high ML college games (Louisville and Tenn) along with the SD Chargers ATS (Thurs night) as my third leg for a 3 game parlay. I also did the played a couple of tonight's NBA games (Hous and LAL) along with the Chargers ATS. Let's see how it turns out. If I win tonight's games, I can always hedge out the SD game late Thurs.Comment
what cave have you lived at?
