Why sharps are struggling in the NBA this year [Article]

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  • ChuteBoxe
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-21-07
    • 6885

    #1
    Why sharps are struggling in the NBA this year [Article]
    Don't worry, you're not alone...

    DIRECT FROM NEVADA
    WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

    WHY SHARPS ARE STRUGGLING IN THE NBA OF LATE

    Over the weekend we talked about sharp strategies that are working in college basketball. I wanted to do the same thing today with the NBA as we get caught up in all of basketball after the end of football. Unfortunately, I'm having trouble finding many sharps who are currently excited about pro hoops.

    In recent years, this sport has lost its appeal with many professional wagerers. It used to be a sport that was very vulnerable to sharp action. The computer guys in particular had great formulas for projecting totals. Oddsmakers were able to come up with formulas that were pretty much as good...neutralizing that edge.

    Here's what the sharps say about why pro basketball is so hard to beat:
    • The lines are solid
    • The players are overpaid prima donnas
    • The players don't give a peak effort every night
    • Nobody cares about winning until the playoffs start
    • There are too many injuries
    • Teams don't rise to the occasion any more when stars are hurt
    • The refs try to keep blowouts in check by calling fouls on the leading team
    • The schedules are so grueling that the players are exhausted all the time

    It's a mix of logic and conspiracy theory. And, frankly, some of the conspiracy theories are hard to argue with when you're watching a game that you've got a big bet on. It's definitely tough to pick winners right now for many of the guys who have been doing this a long time. What worked in the 1980's and 1990's doesn't work any more. The computer stuff has been neutralized. What are sharps to do?

    Well, I've found some guys who are having some success this year. Here's the crux of what they're doing.
    • They're focusing on short term tendencies when teams are playing with a set lineup that's working well together. Injuries are so common now that long term stats don't mean what they used to. Think about what happened to Washington right after Gilbert Arenas went out. The team played very well together for quite some time. It was a five-man starting unit with a bench rotation that clicked. The sharps who are winning are focusing on taking "clicking" teams against opponents who aren't. That sounds kind simplified. It actually takes a lot of digging through the boxscores to get that kind of read on teams.

    For these guys, the full season stats don't matter much. If Minnesota is hustling as a team, it doesn't matter that they've got horrible full season stats. You take them as long as the going is good. New Orleans had been red hot for several weeks, then hit a wall. These guys don't care about the past hot streak. They're betting on the wall right now.
    • They're paying close attention to injuries. It's amazing how many big name guys have missed action this year. If it's a minor injury where a key player is only going to miss a few games, the team often just goes in the tank until he comes back. In the past, sharps would ALWAYS take the shorthanded team figuring everyone would rise to the occasion with the star out. The thinking was that the public would bet the other side figuring it was a lock...and sharps would be getting free points with a motivated team. That worked great for quite some time. It doesn't work now. A lot of teams just go through the motions shorthanded, then play for real once the star is back in the lineup.
    • They're paying close attention to how teams prioritize games. You probably know that many conference or divisional rivals get up for each other. They tend to play flat right after a big game against a team that matters to them. The sharps who are winning have done a good job of finding the dead spots on the schedule. Atlanta jumps to mind Saturday night in Houston. They had just played (and lost) a big game against Cleveland Friday Night. Atlanta went to Houston and had nothing left to give. The fresh (and hot of late) Rockets won a blowout. It was never in doubt.

    I've always been a guy who recommended sticking with what works! I think these approaches will help you pick winners the rest of the way in the NBA. It's not like these issues are going to disappear. If anything, they'll matter more.

    In order:
    • The previous stats will become even more misleading because they'll represent 65%, 75%, and eventually 100% of the full season math. You've got to stick with recent form and let that guide you.
    • Injuries aren't going to go away. Fatigue will create even more problems for these athletes. You've got to know how teams react to being shorthanded to pick winners in a high injury environment.
    • The stretch run will create even more "big" games as all the contenders either fight to make the playoffs or to improve their seeding. There are going to be dozens of flat spots you can take advantage of.

    Fine...what used to work doesn't work any more. That doesn't mean you can't win! Focus on what the current winners are doing, and apply that to your approach. I think you'll be pleased with the results.

    Today's headline talked about why sharps are struggling in the NBA. I think the main reason they are as a group is because they refuse to change with the times. It's human nature to want to stick with what's worked in the past. When a basketball or football coach does that, we say the game has passed him by. I don't mean to suggest that sharps are dinosaurs. They still make good livings betting sports. But, for many, those good livings are coming from beating football badly, playing college basketball totals, and grinding out baseball profits in the summer. Too many longtime sharps have given up on the NBA because they want to jam their old approaches into the new game. Won't work!

    As you develop into a sharp, remember to incorporate flexibility into your thought process. Today's sharps would make even MORE money if they adjusted properly to the NBA. I think those that have given up are leaving money on the table.
  • imgv94
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-16-05
    • 17192

    #2
    It all makes sense now.. LOL

    Great article, I had conversations about not adjusting this season with my pal and I believe that has been one of my major downfalls.

    Thanks
    Comment
    • ChuteBoxe
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-21-07
      • 6885

      #3
      Yeah, this season has been crazy man. I started off hot as a firecracker, +20 units, then dropped all the way down to -50 units in 2 months, then all the way back to -13 before the break. I admit I definitely made some mistakes on my own, including chasing when I started going down big, but this year has been just soo unpredictable.
      Comment
      • capitalist pig
        SBR MVP
        • 01-25-07
        • 4997

        #4
        Im definatley no sharp but Ive been doing okay, ytd 91-62. My method of chasing may be a little different than some. If I lose my one nightly wager im done for the night. If I win it, and there is a later game I will play half of my 1st nights games profits on the 2nd game,this has worked out prety well so far.

        later
        Comment
        • tevari
          SBR MVP
          • 02-02-07
          • 4959

          #5
          Originally posted by capitalist pig
          Im definatley no sharp but Ive been doing okay, ytd 91-62. My method of chasing may be a little different than some. If I lose my one nightly wager im done for the night. If I win it, and there is a later game I will play half of my 1st nights games profits on the 2nd game,this has worked out prety well so far.

          later
          the best bet you've made all year is:

          superbowl coin toss [tails -104]

          i jest, i jest
          Comment
          • McRich
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-26-07
            • 961

            #6
            This is my first year playing action on the NBA. I find the NBA very difficult to cap. It's the only sport where I feel like just picking a game and flipping a coin.
            Comment
            • Dark Horse
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-14-05
              • 13764

              #7
              You have to divide the NBA season into different sections, each with their own motivational identity and each with their own angles. Then determine on a team by team basis how each team measures up motivationally against that part of the season. Once you do that, the fog will clear. (You get in trouble when you try to carry over angles from one section of the season to the next).
              Comment
              • capitalist pig
                SBR MVP
                • 01-25-07
                • 4997

                #8
                Originally posted by tevari
                the best bet you've made all year is:

                superbowl coin toss [tails -104]

                i jest, i jest
                Yea that was my lock of the year, I guess I should have started a "lock" thread on it.

                later
                Comment
                • hoopster42
                  Restricted User
                  • 02-12-08
                  • 6099

                  #9
                  a ball being tossed into a hoop from all sorts of distances. best of luck trying to predict that, lol
                  Comment
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