nba season picks

[BL]

Thanks a lot goompirisin

Today I will roll with

Celtics/Lakers UNDER 187,5 (2x)

Lakers way to stand a chance here is defense. Both teams should bring enough defensive effort in this rivaly match. I rather see the last matchs total here where Lakers allowed Celtics to shoot 60% form the field as I do see this one more likely being a slower match like in their previous meetings. The books would have released the line at a minimum of 192 if they thought there will be a similar scoring like in their last meeting.

not sure if I'll have another play as the board is short and I don't see too much value in the offered sides/totals.

[sweetjones55]

Do you think two days of rest for each team favors UNDER/OVER?

[BL]

Do you think two days of rest for each team favors UNDER/OVER?

I don't think it's a big factor but I do like the fact that both teams score the most points in the 1Q. Coming into the game with a bit of rust I do like the idea of a lower scoring 1Q to help the game total to stay UNDER.

[BL]

Suns/Warriors OVER 218 (1x)

Come on guys, Suns meet Warriors which is THE ultimative highscoring meeting since years and the public is on the under... You know Joes cannot pick unders!

[BL]

Celtics/Lakers UNDER 187,5 (2x)

yes!

Suns/Warriors OVER 218

nope


1-1 +0,9 units today, streak continues! big board tomorrow, love it !

[MrSink]

nice play good luck today

[BL]

Friday:

Toronto/Portland UNDER 196,5 (3x)

Indiana/Minnesota OVER 217 (2x)


Writeups following soon. Locked those in early already.

[BL]

writeups on request ( ):


Toronto/Portland UNDER 196,5 (3x)

Portland isn't in a good spot here in the middle of two road trips. They had 3 days off now at home with their family and just when it started to be fun they yet have to travel again for the next 4 days. Matter of fact the Under is 3-1 in Trail Blazers games playing on 3 or more days rest. Under is 8-2 in Raptors last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. Toronto and Portland are ranked #6 and #7 in the defensive speed index. Add the fact they only combined for 181 points when they met in Portland earlier this year and keep in mind both teams combine for only 189 posessions per game.


Indiana/Minnesota OVER 217 (2x)

198,3 posessions per game combine both teams. That's a big number! Add the fact both teams are combining for an averagescore over 230 when playing each other and there shouldn't be much more to ask for to bet the OVER. With Vogel as coach the pacers are allowing their opponents to shoot 47.0% from the field on their last 3 games which is 3% higher than their season average.
Besides of that looking at the speeddifferential index tells us Minnesota’s and Indiana’s team speeds are driven entirely by their speedy offenses (they shoot early at the shotclock and their opponents aswell).

[BL]

NBA SEASON 115-80 (59%) +25,88 units

[Zzapper]

BL keep up the good work. Any Euro plays today?

[Hawk007]

GL

[BL]

BL keep up the good work. Any Euro plays today?

There will be some Europicks next week and maybe already tomorrow in German BBL. Haven't finished capping yet.

[BL]

Toronto/Portland UNDER 196,5 (3x)
Indiana/Minnesota OVER 217 (2x)

1-1 today

The Under should have cashed aswell. What a joke losing this bet... well cannot win them all.


NBA SEASON 116-81 (58,88%) +24,58 units

[Hawk007]

I hear ya on that Toronto game...GL Today BL!

[BL]

Boston/Miami UNDER 189,5 (3x)

I passed on yesterdays board as I didn't really like the games. Different story today as I will have 3 picks at least. In the early game I placed a decent sized bet on the UNDER.
This will be a defensive minded game at its best. Miami doesn't matchup well with Boston, if they want to stand a chance they have to hold Boston under 90 points today. If they don't stop Allen from hitting 3s and the Celts getting easy points in the paint they will go under once again. When they last met in Boston they scored 168 points. I don't see this one ending much higher.

[darkenergy]

GL BL.
I had UNDER for 1x, and several parlays tight into this UNDER. Probably add some more since you are on it too.
I also on UNDER Laker/Orl, what you think?
BOL today BL

[BL]

GL BL.
I had UNDER for 1x, and several parlays tight into this UNDER. Probably add some more since you are on it too.
I also on UNDER Laker/Orl, what you think?
BOL today BL

I do think this line is very tight. Not playing it personally but would bet the under if anything in that one.

Another play I simply had to book after the referees were announced:

Detroit/Portland UNDER 186 (2x)

let the jumpshots miss !

[BL]

Boston/Miami UNDER 189,5 (3x)

I passed on yesterdays board as I didn't really like the games. Different story today as I will have 3 picks at least. In the early game I placed a decent sized bet on the UNDER.
This will be a defensive minded game at its best. Miami doesn't matchup well with Boston, if they want to stand a chance they have to hold Boston under 90 points today. If they don't stop Allen from hitting 3s and the Celts getting easy points in the paint they will go under once again. When they last met in Boston they scored 168 points. I don't see this one ending much higher.

wayyyy under the total again

[Hawk007]

Nice call BL

[mrlinemaker]

Any others bud?

[Vreston]

[BL]

Memphis -3 (1x)

They already almost got the win in Denver. Line is very telling. Grizzlies are tough to play for roadteams and they should take this one quite comfortable.

[BL]

just realized that Grizzlies are my 200th NBA pick this season! let's get it !

[jgbgsox]

good luck

[BL]

2-1 yesterday including a win on my 200th season pick !

So after 200 NBA plays my record stands at


NBA SEASON 118-82 (59%) +26,38 units


On to the next 200 !

[NBA_Brosuf]

Anything over 50% in betting is a positive note. In education, anything below 65% is a failure.

Post early if you can BL. I want to see what you are made of. You are a clutch capper and I admired your work.

[BL]

Ok I've got 2 early releases for today:

NJ Nets +8 (2x)
Spurs won't really care about this game. They are on the road now for 2 weeks and covered 5 out of 7 games on that trip. It's a nice letdown spot for them against a Nets team that plays better defense at home. Nets already covered lower spreads against Lakers and Magic at home.


MIL Bucks -5,5 (2x)
Time to get back on track for the bucks! Clippers on the second of a back2back on a road trip since almost 2 weeks. They won their last back2back game in New York but it won't be that easy tonight. If Milwaukee brings their A-Game they should take this one quite comfortable.

[djpremier36]

I like the both picks, MIL a little more though.

I'm leaning DEN/HOU over 221, any thoughts?

[BL]

The over is the way the linemakers are leaning with the line set that high but I don't like to touch it. Could be a public chicken dinner on the under here if the 3s don't go in. Line too tight IMO, pass for me

[LordCC]

Good luck tonight BL!

[BL]

thanks LordCC!
I don't think I will add another play as I am feeling really good with those 2 placed bets. I do already like some totals for tomorrow. Will post them up when I checked all numbers.

[BL]

2nd Half MIL Bucks -3,5 (1x)

[BL]

simply putting another unit on Bucks for the original spread at half. they will run away.

[BL]

2-1 +0,8 units today


NBA SEASON 120-83 (59%) +27,18 units

[Hawk007]

Keep Rollin'....

1-1 for me, nice call on the Bucks.