Boston is gonna lose game 1

[Goat Milk]

should i feel comfortable wagering 2 units on Celtics at +5.5?

guy its up to you. I'm just telling you Boston is going to lose game 1.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Is it really up to me?

I'm more curious about covering the spread.

Does a +5.5 point spread sound fair?

Should I wait for the ML and possibly go for a team to win flat out?

[hels]

run along kid. no one can touch me in nba on this site.

Yup, you keep believing that.

[hels]

Is it really up to me? I'm more curious about covering the spread. Does a +5.5 point spread sound fair? Should I wait for the ML and possibly go for a team to win flat out?

All valid questions. If you're looking for this type of advice either ask Lakerboy or Paco. As well, I wouldn't put any money down right now (unless you're a pro and can expertly predict line movement). If you want to tail someone then there are much better out there. Paco is hitting sick atm and LB is a positive winner but has more ups and downs. If LB bets big tho, upwards of 10 units I would feel pretty confident especially if paco was on the same side.

[SR]

Celtics cover, Suns almost got em and played ZERO defense. Lakers won't know what hit em first game. After that they will adjust and all bets are off. But as far as game one, I like celtics at +5 or better strictly because the lakers wont remember what its like to play against a defense.

[Wrigley]

I think Lakers take first 2 in LA

[wolverines]

fakers will win but not cover. fakers win by 2

[PROfitableEnergy]

All valid questions. If you're looking for this type of advice either ask Lakerboy or Paco. As well, I wouldn't put any money down right now (unless you're a pro and can expertly predict line movement). If you want to tail someone then there are much better out there. Paco is hitting sick atm and LB is a positive winner but has more ups and downs. If LB bets big tho, upwards of 10 units I would feel pretty confident especially if paco was on the same side.

Hels, thank you for this informative post. I am an obvious beginner bettor and am looking for as much advice as possible, and appreciate anyone with helpful intuitive information. This may be a very dumb question, but when you say "line movement" what do you mean by this? I assume you mean when a line opens at -xxx +xxx etc, and then closer to tip off the line changes? So I should be good at what? Predicting what the line may be closer to game day? Please elaborate on this if you have some free time, whether it be in here or via PM, if you don't mind, as it would really help me out. I also appreciate you tipping me off to Lakerboy and Paco, I will keep my eyes peeled for their posts and picks. Where can i expect to see them posting? In this thread? In this section "NBA Bball Handicapping"? Do they have their own threads that they post their regular picks frequently during regular season game by game? Thank you for your time and helpfulness.

I read online that most winning bettors tend to choose the line, is this true? Why is this? Why are so many others infatuated with betting a point spread?

[SportsTerminator]

Boston has to steal game 1 or 2 to win the series...

[PureGuava]

tough call on this game

[t-wizzle]

I like LA too to win Game 1 but you have yet to support your statement Goat.

[Carnage]

I really cannot see LA winning this series. Derek Fisher does not get enough credit for how important he is to the Lakers, but there is no way he is going to be able to contain the emerging superstar in Rondo. The Celtics have KG to counter Pau, and either Ray Ray or Pierce will cover Bryant decently (granted he will still score 25+ a game). If you tell me Bynum, you're out of your mind. He will get beat up by Perkins, especially with his messed up knee. The bench is playing better than usual and now the Celtics know they can count on Nate for an energizing play or two if something goes wrong. For me, it's really hard to see the Lakers winning more than 2 games.

[PROfitableEnergy]

does anybody feel a 2 unit parlay play is worthy? Bos @ +5.5 and the under at 192 for about 2.25 to 1 on my money? if not why?

[starbury182]

thats obvious lakers are so much better.... I think lakers might sweep even theyre just too goood

[hels]

Hels, thank you for this informative post. I am an obvious beginner bettor and am looking for as much advice as possible, and appreciate anyone with helpful intuitive information. This may be a very dumb question, but when you say "line movement" what do you mean by this? I assume you mean when a line opens at -xxx +xxx etc, and then closer to tip off the line changes? So I should be good at what? Predicting what the line may be closer to game day? Please elaborate on this if you have some free time, whether it be in here or via PM, if you don't mind, as it would really help me out. I also appreciate you tipping me off to Lakerboy and Paco, I will keep my eyes peeled for their posts and picks. Where can i expect to see them posting? In this thread? In this section "NBA Bball Handicapping"? Do they have their own threads that they post their regular picks frequently during regular season game by game? Thank you for your time and helpfulness. I read online that most winning bettors tend to choose the line, is this true? Why is this? Why are so many others infatuated with betting a point spread?

No worries man, the sad thing is is that many people on here lose sight of why we all post -- to help one another out -- instead they just post their "this team will win" and offer no credible or comprehensive reasoning. I do that too sometimes but if you ever have any questions feel free to pm me and I'll answer the best I can.

You are correct about line movement and what it means. So let's take the Boston/LA line for game 1. It opened (at Pinnacle) at LA-6 -104, right now it's at LA-5.5 -103. So let's say by game time you think that the line will drop even further towards LA-4.5. That means if you believe LA is the stronger team you should wait to make your bet. However, if you believe Boston is the stronger team you should make your play right now while it has the best value.

How line movement usually operates goes like this.
Step 1) Vegas opens odds and only takes bets from sharps (sharps mean expert cappers)
Step 2) Vegas readjusts odds depending on how sharps bet
Step 3) This is when the public bets
Step 4) Near gametime, about the last 15 minutes you'll see the most substantial line movements -- these are typically sharp bets

So, because the line went from -6 to -5.5 in the first 40 minutes you can correctly assume it was sharp cappers taking Boston +6. This is because the sharps are predicting the public (i.e., goat milk) to bet heavy on the Lakers. Vegas readjusts their lines to LA-5.5. Now this is where 'reading' the lines becomes a talent. If the public is betting heavy on LA-5.5 yet the line stays at -5.5 and more money is coming in on LA it would typically mean Boston is the 'Sharp' play (or correct play). If the line goes to say -7 that means Vegas is wanting more money to come on Boston as they're trying to scare people away LA. That is only the elementary way of thinking and people will argue that it's one of Vegas's tricks and that there's RLM (Reverse Line Movement) and Vegas is trying to make you overthink.

So what's more profitable the Moneyline or Pointspread. There will be a split consensus on this topic and I am not at any authority to give an answer. However, what I can say is this. The Public loves to bet the spreads of the popular teams.... so LA, Boston, Cleveland, Miami, Denver etc. etc. will most commonly have losing records against the spread. This season here's the 2 finalists PS

LA 34-46-2
Boston 33-48-1

This happens year in year out and you could probably have a strategy of fading (betting against) the PS of the best teams.

Lakerboy's posts are typically very close to tipoff as he follows the line movements and makes many plays based on them. He had a thread in the nba forum titled 'Who Wants My Plays' or something like that.... it's the biggest thread and always near the top.

Paco often posts his plays in Lakerboy's thread but will always post all of his plays in the baseball forum thread titled 'My MLB'

[Gumdog]

kiool thanx for the info hels

[Goat Milk]

Hels, we talkin basketball knowledge not capping abilities. No doubt those two you mentioned may be better capper obviously but no way they know more nba

[rvfrank]

Boston will take game 1 maybe ml

[Goat Milk]

You want me to give you a reasoning Hels?

[PROfitableEnergy]

Thank you so much for all that information hels, excellent post, and very very informative.

I see you said LA at -103/-104, but on Bodog the best I am being offered is +5.5 at -110 for Boston and -5.5 -110 for LA, is -110 horrible odds for me? I feel Bodog tends to not have the best odds, as in comparison to posts on betting forums my odds always seem to be a tad worse. I bet on Bodog because I have a huge poker account in which I can use funds from there within seconds without a problem. Is there a better place to bet? If so where do you think are the top spots to shop around at?

Again, thank you so much for all the help, it is great to find someone willing to take the time out to help an obvious (and only for the time being!!!!) super square of my sorts. Appreciate it infinitely.

[shoebox]

All valid questions. If you're looking for this type of advice either ask Lakerboy or Paco. As well, I wouldn't put any money down right now (unless you're a pro and can expertly predict line movement). If you want to tail someone then there are much better out there. Paco is hitting sick atm and LB is a positive winner but has more ups and downs. If LB bets big tho, upwards of 10 units I would feel pretty confident especially if paco was on the same side.

What if there on opposite sides who do i blindly tail then
It's so hard being a sheep

[maquina]

I agree with you,they will loose.

[Goat Milk]

[Pauulzcappin]

I'm planning to make a big bet on Lakers ML but I still haven't made up my mind either to take the spread also or not.

[PROfitableEnergy]

It's not bad to use one's bets as a reference if not just to gain a second opinion on your own selections. I of course am looking more to gain information on how I can make my own decisions and get into their minds to figure how they arrive at each pick, etc. However, for a beginner it is great to follow some proven winners to help me get inside that mind.

I am buying Sharp sports betting this week, and intend to begin with a virtual roll, or a very small roll like 100 dollars and bet 1-4 units per pick and see how I do, once 10-11 season begins, as well as the NFL season. I'm using this time to study and gather as much as I can, as I am currently a poker pro looking to dabble further into sports betting correctly, within roll, using units, and making good bankroll decisions. I am also going to begin betting MMA events, once I feel I have enough information to do so.

[PROfitableEnergy]

I agree with you,they will loose.

"loose"

That's funny.

I feel school has failed you.

Goatmilk, please stop flaming the thread. Nas hasn't been good since Stillmatic and Rakim will always be the superior emcee. Please allow us to discuss, and constructively rebuttal posts you disagree with, by using well thought out intelligent paragraphs, thanks again.

[lunchbawks]

love the celtics ML here.

[shoebox]

No worries man, the sad thing is is that many people on here lose sight of why we all post -- to help one another out -- instead they just post their "this team will win" and offer no credible or comprehensive reasoning. I do that too sometimes but if you ever have any questions feel free to pm me and I'll answer the best I can.

You are correct about line movement and what it means. So let's take the Boston/LA line for game 1. It opened (at Pinnacle) at LA-6 -104, right now it's at LA-5.5 -103. So let's say by game time you think that the line will drop even further towards LA-4.5. That means if you believe LA is the stronger team you should wait to make your bet. However, if you believe Boston is the stronger team you should make your play right now while it has the best value.

How line movement usually operates goes like this.
Step 1) Vegas opens odds and only takes bets from sharps (sharps mean expert cappers)
Step 2) Vegas readjusts odds depending on how sharps bet
Step 3) This is when the public bets
Step 4) Near gametime, about the last 15 minutes you'll see the most substantial line movements -- these are typically sharp bets

So, because the line went from -6 to -5.5 in the first 40 minutes you can correctly assume it was sharp cappers taking Boston +6. This is because the sharps are predicting the public (i.e., goat milk) to bet heavy on the Lakers. Vegas readjusts their lines to LA-5.5. Now this is where 'reading' the lines becomes a talent. If the public is betting heavy on LA-5.5 yet the line stays at -5.5 and more money is coming in on LA it would typically mean Boston is the 'Sharp' play (or correct play). If the line goes to say -7 that means Vegas is wanting more money to come on Boston as they're trying to scare people away LA. That is only the elementary way of thinking and people will argue that it's one of Vegas's tricks and that there's RLM (Reverse Line Movement) and Vegas is trying to make you overthink.

So what's more profitable the Moneyline or Pointspread. There will be a split consensus on this topic and I am not at any authority to give an answer. However, what I can say is this. The Public loves to bet the spreads of the popular teams.... so LA, Boston, Cleveland, Miami, Denver etc. etc. will most commonly have losing records against the spread. This season here's the 2 finalists PS

LA 34-46-2
Boston 33-48-1

This happens year in year out and you could probably have a strategy of fading (betting against) the PS of the best teams.

Lakerboy's posts are typically very close to tipoff as he follows the line movements and makes many plays based on them. He had a thread in the nba forum titled 'Who Wants My Plays' or something like that.... it's the biggest thread and always near the top.

Paco often posts his plays in Lakerboy's thread but will always post all of his plays in the baseball forum thread titled 'My MLB'

[shoebox]

It's not bad to use one's bets as a reference if not just to gain a second opinion on your own selections. I of course and looking more to gain information on how I can make my own decisions and get into their minds to figure how they arrive at each pick, etc. However, for a beginner it is great to follow some proven winners to help me get inside that mind.

I am buying Sharp sports betting this week, and intend to begin with a virtual roll, or a very small roll like 100 dollars and bet 1-4 units per pick and see how I do, once 10-11 season begins, as well as the NFL season. I'm using this time to study and gather as much as I can, as I currently a poker pro looking to dabble further into sports betting correctly, within roll, using units, and making good bankroll decisions. I am also going to begin betting MMA events, once I feel I have enough information to do so.

You can't make this stuff up

[PROfitableEnergy]

You realize both further and farther are valid right?

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/further

If that wasn't the point of your joke I'll just remain confused and hope one day you get your GED.

[shoebox]

You realize both further and farther are valid right?

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/further

If that wasn't the point of your joke I'll just remain confused and hope one day you get your GED.

[Goat Milk]

Hels,

If you read into line movement for the finals it will bury you. I said before anyone what the exact series prices would be for this series and I already know sharps will be on Boston. Good luck with your play.

[tealish]

No worries man, the sad thing is is that many people on here lose sight of why we all post -- to help one another out -- instead they just post their "this team will win" and offer no credible or comprehensive reasoning. I do that too sometimes but if you ever have any questions feel free to pm me and I'll answer the best I can. You are correct about line movement and what it means. So let's take the Boston/LA line for game 1. It opened (at Pinnacle) at LA-6 -104, right now it's at LA-5.5 -103. So let's say by game time you think that the line will drop even further towards LA-4.5. That means if you believe LA is the stronger team you should wait to make your bet. However, if you believe Boston is the stronger team you should make your play right now while it has the best value. How line movement usually operates goes like this. Step 1) Vegas opens odds and only takes bets from sharps (sharps mean expert cappers) Step 2) Vegas readjusts odds depending on how sharps bet Step 3) This is when the public bets Step 4) Near gametime, about the last 15 minutes you'll see the most substantial line movements -- these are typically sharp bets So, because the line went from -6 to -5.5 in the first 40 minutes you can correctly assume it was sharp cappers taking Boston +6. This is because the sharps are predicting the public (i.e., goat milk) to bet heavy on the Lakers. Vegas readjusts their lines to LA-5.5. Now this is where 'reading' the lines becomes a talent. If the public is betting heavy on LA-5.5 yet the line stays at -5.5 and more money is coming in on LA it would typically mean Boston is the 'Sharp' play (or correct play). If the line goes to say -7 that means Vegas is wanting more money to come on Boston as they're trying to scare people away LA. That is only the elementary way of thinking and people will argue that it's one of Vegas's tricks and that there's RLM (Reverse Line Movement) and Vegas is trying to make you overthink. So what's more profitable the Moneyline or Pointspread. There will be a split consensus on this topic and I am not at any authority to give an answer. However, what I can say is this. The Public loves to bet the spreads of the popular teams.... so LA, Boston, Cleveland, Miami, Denver etc. etc. will most commonly have losing records against the spread. This season here's the 2 finalists PS LA 34-46-2 Boston 33-48-1 This happens year in year out and you could probably have a strategy of fading (betting against) the PS of the best teams. Lakerboy's posts are typically very close to tipoff as he follows the line movements and makes many plays based on them. He had a thread in the nba forum titled 'Who Wants My Plays' or something like that.... it's the biggest thread and always near the top. Paco often posts his plays in Lakerboy's thread but will always post all of his plays in the baseball forum thread titled 'My MLB'

!!!

[shoebox]

You realize both further and farther are valid right?

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/further

If that wasn't the point of your joke I'll just remain confused and hope one day you get your GED.

ooooo face!

[Goat Milk]

Hels,

Can you please PM LB and Paco and ask them what they will be playing so i can feel more confident? I'll toss you some points.