Old article but still informative, agree with about 80% of it:
NBA Key Numbers
by Jeremy Martin
There are certain key numbers in professional sports that can cause trouble for bookmakers. Key numbers are most prevalent in the NFL, where a high percentage of games land on the numbers three and seven. Most people familiar with sports betting recognize these as important numbers concerning NFL wagering. However, many bettors are not aware that there are certain key numbers in the NBA that bookies must contend with on a nightly basis. Two and seven are considered the main key numbers in professional basketball.
Bookies have, for the most part, ignored NBA key numbers for years. But recently so many games have fallen on or close to these numbers that bookmakers have begun to take notice. The NBA has some of the biggest line moves of any of the major betting sports, so bookies must be extra careful when they set their numbers. If they move the number too much or make a bad judgment call it could cause them to get 'middled' or 'sided,' which is basically a bookie's worst nightmare (paying out on both sides or paying out on one side and returning money to all other customers).
Two is probably the most important of all key numbers in the NBA. When a point spread is set on or close to two, there is a high probability that the game will be close. Close games in the NBA are usually decided on the last basket and the winning team normally wins by between one and three points. Bookies must use caution when moving the number in situations like these.
"We really don't like to bounce back and forth from two to three," said Bob Scucci, Race & Sportsbook manager For The Stardust in Las Vegas. "Two seems to be as solid of a number as you can get in the NBA. When (the game is) as close to a 'pick'em as two is, you are anticipating a very competitive game that could go right down to the wire. That two points and three points is a big difference. You are playing for that last shot that puts it on a two. We try not to move to frequently between 1 ½ and 2 ½."
"In basketball ones and twos are as close to key numbers as you can get," added Doug Beil, race and sportsbook manager for Terrible's Hotel/Casino in Las Vegas. "If it is a close game and the spread is two points or less, more frequently than just random chance the games are close and they tend to fall. This goes for college (basketball) as well.
"Lets say one team starts out as a one-point favorite and then the other team goes off as a one-point favorite - which happens a lot in basketball. Or if you start off as a one-point favorite and then you close at two or 2 ½ -- that also happens a lot. So if it is a close game and it happens to fall on one or two, that becomes a key number that can zap you. That's the reality."
Sevens are so important because that is the point differential (three possessions) in the NBA when the trailing team will, in theory, stop fouling. Many NBA bettors have frustratingly torn up a losing ticket after wagering on a 6 1/2 -point dog in a close game only to see their team lose by seven in the final seconds because of a barrage of late-game fouls. Fouls and the resulting shots from the charity stripe are a big part of the game and must be factored into each and every NBA wager. According to Scucci, more and more games are falling on this key number.
"I have seen in recent years a lot more games falling on seven than any other number, and that's regardless of the point spread," he said. "I mean I have seen 'pick'em games that fall seven and 10-point spreads that fall on seven. That is starting to become one of those numbers to really start watching for as far as being a key number.
"It has everything to do with fouls. Two becomes three, becomes four, becomes seven. You know, that whole thing. It's a two-point game in the last minute (of regulation). It is back and forth, anyone's game and suddenly it turns into seven."
Beil believes that fouling is up in the NBA this year, especially at the end of games. He doesn't necessarily buy into the notion that teams will stop fouling when they are down by seven.
"I think it depends on how much time there is left," he said. "In the NBA generally speaking teams will foul if they are within 10 or 12 points. And then if they are playing teams with bad foul shooters like a Ben Wallace or Shaquille O'Neal, they will zero in and foul those guys even more. "It seems like (teams will) foul more often and earlier and later in games than years past. Maybe it has to do with how bad the foul shooters are. I've seen teams down by seven or eight with 15 seconds left fouling. It almost seems like there is no end to it unless the game is really out of reach."
NBA Key Numbers
by Jeremy Martin
There are certain key numbers in professional sports that can cause trouble for bookmakers. Key numbers are most prevalent in the NFL, where a high percentage of games land on the numbers three and seven. Most people familiar with sports betting recognize these as important numbers concerning NFL wagering. However, many bettors are not aware that there are certain key numbers in the NBA that bookies must contend with on a nightly basis. Two and seven are considered the main key numbers in professional basketball.
Bookies have, for the most part, ignored NBA key numbers for years. But recently so many games have fallen on or close to these numbers that bookmakers have begun to take notice. The NBA has some of the biggest line moves of any of the major betting sports, so bookies must be extra careful when they set their numbers. If they move the number too much or make a bad judgment call it could cause them to get 'middled' or 'sided,' which is basically a bookie's worst nightmare (paying out on both sides or paying out on one side and returning money to all other customers).
Two is probably the most important of all key numbers in the NBA. When a point spread is set on or close to two, there is a high probability that the game will be close. Close games in the NBA are usually decided on the last basket and the winning team normally wins by between one and three points. Bookies must use caution when moving the number in situations like these.
"We really don't like to bounce back and forth from two to three," said Bob Scucci, Race & Sportsbook manager For The Stardust in Las Vegas. "Two seems to be as solid of a number as you can get in the NBA. When (the game is) as close to a 'pick'em as two is, you are anticipating a very competitive game that could go right down to the wire. That two points and three points is a big difference. You are playing for that last shot that puts it on a two. We try not to move to frequently between 1 ½ and 2 ½."
"In basketball ones and twos are as close to key numbers as you can get," added Doug Beil, race and sportsbook manager for Terrible's Hotel/Casino in Las Vegas. "If it is a close game and the spread is two points or less, more frequently than just random chance the games are close and they tend to fall. This goes for college (basketball) as well.
"Lets say one team starts out as a one-point favorite and then the other team goes off as a one-point favorite - which happens a lot in basketball. Or if you start off as a one-point favorite and then you close at two or 2 ½ -- that also happens a lot. So if it is a close game and it happens to fall on one or two, that becomes a key number that can zap you. That's the reality."
Sevens are so important because that is the point differential (three possessions) in the NBA when the trailing team will, in theory, stop fouling. Many NBA bettors have frustratingly torn up a losing ticket after wagering on a 6 1/2 -point dog in a close game only to see their team lose by seven in the final seconds because of a barrage of late-game fouls. Fouls and the resulting shots from the charity stripe are a big part of the game and must be factored into each and every NBA wager. According to Scucci, more and more games are falling on this key number.
"I have seen in recent years a lot more games falling on seven than any other number, and that's regardless of the point spread," he said. "I mean I have seen 'pick'em games that fall seven and 10-point spreads that fall on seven. That is starting to become one of those numbers to really start watching for as far as being a key number.
"It has everything to do with fouls. Two becomes three, becomes four, becomes seven. You know, that whole thing. It's a two-point game in the last minute (of regulation). It is back and forth, anyone's game and suddenly it turns into seven."
Beil believes that fouling is up in the NBA this year, especially at the end of games. He doesn't necessarily buy into the notion that teams will stop fouling when they are down by seven.
"I think it depends on how much time there is left," he said. "In the NBA generally speaking teams will foul if they are within 10 or 12 points. And then if they are playing teams with bad foul shooters like a Ben Wallace or Shaquille O'Neal, they will zero in and foul those guys even more. "It seems like (teams will) foul more often and earlier and later in games than years past. Maybe it has to do with how bad the foul shooters are. I've seen teams down by seven or eight with 15 seconds left fouling. It almost seems like there is no end to it unless the game is really out of reach."