[mundane]

12/19 n/a results:
thunder W
wolves W
spurs W
pelicans L

n/a tally:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 4-6
inj: 7-5
borderline: 10-7

----

kings L

system ytd: 7-8 47%

[mundane]

12/20 result
nuggets W ~ n/a win - murray was out

------

12/21 system play:

rockets +2.5 (pk) [magic -2.5 #-3.31]

clippers -6.5 #11.72 *reggie j, p george & zubac all listed as gtd. if they remain out (1 wk out filter), this is a play. if one plays, becomes a no system play.

system ytd: 7-8 47%


------
n/a:
warriors +11.5 ~ b2b [nets -11.5 #-1.29]
knicks -1 ~ borderline [knicks -1.5 #9.56]
thunder +4.5 ~ borderline [blazers -3.5 #-0.05]

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 4-6
inj: 8-5
borderline: 10-7

[mundane]

12/21 results
rockets L
system ytd: 7-9 44%

----
warriors L
knicks L
thunder W
clippers W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 4-7
inj: 9-5
borderline: 11-8

----

12/22 no plays

[mundane]

12/23 system play

pacers +6.5 (+4) ~ haliburton listed as gtd. if he sits, this will be n/a. [heat -6.5 #-3.50] *same w/l

-----

n/a:
suns +2.5 (pk) ~ inj. booker/ayton only 3rd game out/in [grizzlies -2.5 #-3.52]
spurs +6.5 ~ b2b [magic -6.5 #-1.45]
cavs -4 ~ borderline [cavs -4.5 #9.96]
clippers +5.5 ~ borderline [76ers -3.5 #0.71]
rockets +8.5 ~ borderline [mavs -6.5 #0.98]

[mundane]

12/23 results

pacers W
system ytd: 8-9 47%

suns L
spurs L
cavs L
clippers W
rockets W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 4-8
inj: 9-6
borderline: 13-9

------

12/25 system plays

knicks +1.5 [76ers -1.5 #-1.13]

bucks +4.5 [celtics -4.5 #-1.03]

n/a:
lakers +9.5 ~ borderline [mavs -7.5 #0.95]

[mundane]

12/25 results 0-2

knicks L
bucks L

system ytd: 8-11 42%

-------

n/a:
lakers W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 4-8
inj: 9-6
borderline: 14-9

-------

12/26 system play

wolves +4.5 (+4) [heat -4.5 #-1.50] *same w/l

---

n/a:
clippers -3.5 ~ borderline [clippers -4.5 #9.01]
blazers -5 ~ borderlne [blazers -5.5 #9.62]

[mundane]

12/26 result 1-0

wolves W

system ytd: 9-11 45%

----

clippers W
blazers W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 4-8
inj: 9-6
borderline: 16-9

----

12/27 system plays:

knicks +5.5 (+4) [mavs -5.5 #-2.50] *same w/l *brunson gtd. n/a if out.

kings +3.5 [nuggets -3.5 #-1.11] *sabonis gtd. n/a if out.

----

n/a:
pacers +1.5 (-1) ~ b2b [hawks -1.5 #-3.74]
suns +7.5 ~ inj booker [grizzlies -7.5 #-1.19]

[mundane]

12/27 n/a results: 3-1

pacers W
suns W
knicks W
kings L

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 5-8
inj: 11-7
borderline: 16-9

------

12/28 no system play

n/a:
hawks +7.5 (+5.5) ~ b2b [nets -7.5 #-3.15]
lakers +8.5 ~ b2b [heat -8.5 #-1.09]
warriors +5.5 (pk) ~ b2b [jazz -5.5 #-6.40]

[mundane]

12/29 1 possible system play

pacers +5.5 (+4) [cavs -5.5 #-2.79] *haliburton gtd. n/a if out,

system ytd: 10-10 50%

** need to go 13-0 to reach 70%(!). safe to say that ain't happening. i doubt it even produces that much plays. but i'll keep tracking since it's still fun for me.

** system ytd corrections: sorry just caught these.
12/10 celtics play L downgraded to n/a. ~ horford only 3rd game out.
12/27 suns n/a play W upgraded to system play ~ 12/25 booker only 4min playtime = out = 1wk out filter


------------

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 5-8
inj: 10-8
borderline: 16-9


** anyway, some thoughts about the filters:

- dd spread and b2b games are imo a definite no plays in this system. combined 7-11 39% so far.

- injury filter is interesting though. from 2-4 to 10-8 56%. here's the thing though, some im not even sure if the players were really injured or just resting/load mgmt (tatum, brown, kawhi, george, murray, young, sga, beal, thompson, green, the whole heat squad lol). some of them were only gone for one or two games then they get thrown back in like nothing happened! years back one can tell if a starter is out or has been out and is just coming back (coming off bench, minute restrictions, reflected on the spread, etc). now who knows!?! the line doesn't even move sometimes. great example was last night. big time starters brunson for the knicks and sabonis for the kings and the lines hardly budge(!) even though they were gtd. ....or maybe im just out of touch (stopped ff nba for 4 yrs). i'm almost inclined to just discard this filter except for some big names starters on a team and actually seeing them break their bones on live tv ala paul george and gordon hayward from way back. smh. anyhow, it's been slowly trending up though. 8-4 last 12 plays lol. perhaps at 25+ games, teams have built up enough chemistry that starters being in/out of the lineup doesn't matter that much. see clippers. lol sigh.

- borderline plays is just my own thing that i added here for tracking purposes. it's for 1-3 pt line movement that if it lands on the number, then perhaps it's a 'good play'. also useful with teasers, alternative pt spreads and live betting. not bad at 16-9 64%.

[mundane]

12/28 n/a results:

hawks W
lakers L
warriors W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 7-9
inj: 10-8
borderline: 16-9

[mundane]

12/29 result 1-0

pacers W

system ytd: 11-10 52%

-----

12/30 system play

warriors +2.5 (pk) [blazers -2.5 #-4.03] *draymond gtd. n/a if out.

-----
n/a:
magic +4.5 (+1) ~ inj m. wagner out/suspension [wizards -4.5 #-4.72]
lakers +8.5 ~ borderline [hawks -7.5 #-0.21]

[mundane]

12/31 system play

pacers +4.5 (pk) [clippers -4.5 #-5.51]

-----
n/a:
bulls +6 ~ borderline/b2b [cavs -4.5 #0.20]
spurs +9 ~ borderline [mavs -7.5 #0.13]
thunder +6 ~ borderline [76ers -4.5 #0.48]
heat +4 ~ borderline/b2b [jazz -3.5 #-0.50] *same w/l %

[mundane]

12/30 result 1-0

warriors W

system ytd: 12-10 55%

-----
n/a results:
magic L
lakers W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 7-9
inj: 10-9
borderline: 17-9

------

12/31 plays *see previous post

[mundane]

5-0 system run since xmas day+1!

pacers W

system ytd: 13-10 57%

ps. got winterstorm coming again. i might not be able to post/update if we get power outage again. :/ anyway, was trying to attach the spreadsheet but i guess that's disabled now in the forum. hmmm if anyone is interested, lemme know how i can share it here.

bol everyone. stay safe! happy new year!

[mundane]

12/31 n/a results: 3-1

bulls W
spurs W
thunder L
heat W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 7-9
inj: 10-9
borderline: 20-10

-----

1/1 system play

nuggets +1.5 [celtics -1.5 #-1.25] *murray & gordon gtd/inj. mgmt. n/a if out.

[mundane]

1/1 result 1-0

nuggets W ~ downgraded to n/a. starter murray was out. *this load mgmt is really debatable at this point imo. smh. but in keeping with this system filter, downgraded it to n/a.

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 7-9
inj: 11-9
borderline: 20-10

------

1/2 no system play

------

n/a:
knicks pk ~ borderline [suns 1.5 #-0.15]
heat +6 ~ borderline [clippers -4.5 #0.46]

[mundane]

1/2 results 2-0

knicks W
heat W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 7-9
inj: 11-9
borderline: 22-10 69%

------

1/3 no plays

[mundane]

1/4 2 system plays

pacers +7.5 (+7) [76ers -7.5 #-1.58]

warriors -6.5 #10.32

------

n/a:

bucks +3.5 (+2.5)#11.31 ~ b2b

pelicans -7.5 (-10.5) #13.07 ~ inj. zion w. out
lakers +8.5 (+3) [heat -8.5 #-6.81] ~ inj. lebron out

magic +2.5 ~ borderline [thunder -1.5 #-0.45]
grizzlies -5.5 ~ borderline [grizzlies -6.5 #9.29]
wolves +2.5 ~ borderline [blazers -1.5 #-0.48]

[mundane]

**updates for 1/4 plays. see previous post.

---------------------

1/5 no system play

---
n/a:
mavs +3.5 ~ borderline [celtics -2.5 #-0.24]

[mundane]

1/4 system results: 1-1

pacers W
warriors L

system ytd: 14-11 56%

----
n/a results: 6-0 sweep!

bucks W
pelicans W
lakers W
magic W
grizzlies W
wolves W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 8-9
inj: 13-9
borderline: 25-10 71%

[mundane]

1/06 2 system plays

suns +1.5 (-2) [heat -1.5 #-4.50] *same w/l

lakers +1.5 (pk) [hawks -1.5 #-3.18]

------

n/a:
pelicans +4.5 (pk) ~ inj. zion 2gm out [nets -4.5 #-6.18]
cavs +6.5 (+4.5) ~ inj. mitchell out/rest [nuggets -6.5 #-2.66]

bucks -10.5 (-13) #12.57 ~ dd spread

thunder -1 ~ borderline [wizards +1.5 #-0.76]

[mundane]

1/05 result 0-1

mavs L

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-3
b2b: 8-9
inj: 13-9
borderline: 25-11 69%

[mundane]

1/06 system results: 1-1

suns L
lakers W

system ytd: 15-12 56%

-----
n/a results:
pelicans L
cavs L
bucks L
thunder W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-4
b2b: 8-9
inj: 13-11
borderline: 26-11 70%

----------------

1/07 no system play

-----

n/a:
lakers +8.5 (+8) ~ b2b [kings -8.5 #-1.55]
bulls pk ~ borderline/b2b [jazz +1.5 #-0.19]

[mundane]

1/08 system play

pacers -5.5 (-6.5) #11.25


-----

n/a:

suns +6.5 ~ inj. c paul ruled out [cavs -6.5 #-3.25]

heat +5.5 ~ borderline [nets -3.5 #0.58]

[mundane]

1/07 n/a results: 2-0

lakers W
bulls W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-4
b2b: 9-9
inj: 13-11
borderline: 27-11 71%

[mundane]

1/08 system result: 0-1

pacers L

system ytd: 15-13 54%

----
n/a: *suns downgraded to n/a. c paul ruled out.

[mundane]

1/08 n/a results: 1-1

suns L
heat W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-4
b2b: 9-9
inj: 13-12
borderline: 28-11 72%

--------

1/09 no system play

------
n/a:
knicks +3 ~ borderline [bucks -2.5 #-0.95]
grizzlies -10 ~ borderline [grizzlies -10.5 #9.58]

[mundane]

1/10 no system play

76ers -9.5 (-10.5) #11.48 ~ inj. embiid gtd. n/a if IN.
76ers -13.5 #7.48 *no play

-----

n/a:
suns +11.5 ~ inj. paul 2gm out [warriors -11.5 #-7.89]
clippers +1.5 ~ inj. george 3gm out [mavs -1.5 #-1.45]

*consensus lines: embiid, curry & luka gtd/probables.

[mundane]

1/09 n/a results: 0-2

knicks L
grizzlies L

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-4
b2b: 9-9
inj: 13-12
borderline: 28-13 68%

[mundane]

1/11 system play

pelicans +9.5 (+9) [celtics -9.5 #-1.62]

-----

n/a:
wizards pk ~ borderline [bulls +1.5 #0.94]
suns +13 ~ borderline/b2b [nuggets -12.5 #-0.75]

[mundane]

1/10 n/a results: 2-0

suns W
clippers W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-4
b2b: 9-9
inj: 15-12
borderline: 28-13 68%

[mundane]

1/12 plays *see 2 posts down.

[mundane]

1/11 system result: 0-1

pelicans L

system ytd: 15-14 52%

-----

n/a result: 1-1
wizards W
suns L

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-4
b2b: 9-9
inj: 15-12
borderline: 29-14 67%

[mundane]

1/12 system play

lakers +3.5 [mavs -3.5 #-2.29] *lebron gtd. n/a if out.

---------

n/a:
nets +1.5 ~ inj. durant out [celtics -1.5 #-2.54]
bucks +6.5 #10.24 ~ inj. giannis out/rest

*consensus/adjusted lines: (bos/bk) horford out/rest, brown gtd. (mil/mia) giannis out/rest

[mundane]

1/12 system result: 0-1

lakers L

system ytd: 15-15 50%

-------

n/a result: 1-1
nets L
bucks W

n/a ytd:
dd: 2-4
b2b: 9-9
inj: 16-13
borderline: 29-14 67%