that 70's % show

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  • mundane
    SBR MVP
    • 02-25-08
    • 3592

    #1
    that 70's % show
    that 70's % show

    20 games are in! i used to track this a decade ago if any of you guys remember. we'll see if this system still checks out.

    11/30 2 plays: *im surprised it produced a couple of plays already!

    suns -4.5 (-5.5) #11.00

    celtics -9.5 #10.17
    ~ playing this by ear. dunno how to go abt load mgmt - tatum, horford & brown?. my personal opinion, it's not a real injury were the player needed some timeoff/rehab (ex. siakam). so im counting this one as an official play as of now. if brown doesn't play, then this becomes a NO play. idk i guess he's really injured?

    -------
    N/A due to filter/s:
    nuggets -11.50 (-13) #11.50 ~ dd spread
    blazers +5.5 #10.27 ~ b2b

    --------
    other games (posting here initially for transparency/cross-checking):
    cavs -3.5 #1.88
    hawks -5.5 #5.79
    wizards +6.5 #4.69
    bucks -5.5 #4.53
    grizzlies -3.5 #-0.31 *bordering a play for wolves
    pelicans -1.5 #4.00
    thunder -6.5 #1.26
    clippers +6.5 #6.96
    pacers +4.5 #5.18

    -------
    index/notes for reference:
    (-13) ~ spread in parenthesis means 'playable up to'.
    #10.** ~ derived from calculation. *play if 10 or > or if < / = -1, play other team


    ps. not my system(!). kindly just find the old thread to understand the mechanics of this system OR perhaps someone who is familiar with this system can explain it here. me, im just doing this for fun. if there are none posted in the future, it probably means there are no plays. this system hardly ever produces plays!! 20, if lucky. if i miss something (miscalculations or missed system plays), feel free to comment.

    also, starter injuries had been a big debate before. im sure it'd still be. especially with player load management. etc. not sure how to really go about it so we'll just play it by ear. dont blame the system (or me) if an 'official' play becomes null and void because a player all of sudden was ruled in/out. *see celtics above.

    that's it for now. will check back later. bol to all!
  • mundane
    SBR MVP
    • 02-25-08
    • 3592

    #2
    ytd: 2-0 great start!

    12/1 no play today. 11games tom tho. fingers crossed we get plays.

    -----
    n/a tally:
    dd: 1-0
    b2b: 0-1
    inj: 0-0
    Comment
    • mundane
      SBR MVP
      • 02-25-08
      • 3592

      #3
      12/2: 3 plays
      celtics -8.5 (-11) #12.68
      cavs -9.5 (-13) #13.95
      bucks -7.5 (-10.5) #13 *middleton is probable. if he gets starter minutes, this becomes a NO play.

      n/a:
      suns -11.5 (-16.5) #15.31 ~ dd spread
      76ers +5.5 #-1.20 ~ starter injury: embiid only 3rd game back (allow 1wk or 3gms filter)

      notables/borderline plays (ie. grizz/wolves#. see above. i'm curious now so will track. # lands at 0 or 9)
      raptors +3 #0.10 only ~ play other side. nets -1.5 or better
      warriors -6.5 #0.07 only ~ play other side. bulls +8 or better

      ----
      ytd: 2-0

      n/a tally
      dd: 1-0
      b2b: 0-1
      ?inj: 0-0
      borderline: 1-0
      Last edited by mundane; 12-02-22, 04:43 AM. Reason: lines, middleton
      Comment
      • mundane
        SBR MVP
        • 02-25-08
        • 3592

        #4
        12/2 results:
        cavs W
        celtics L

        ytd: 3-1 75%

        -----

        n/a results:
        nets W ~ borderline/inj: b.simmons only 3rd gm out
        bucks L ~ inj: middleton only 1st gm back
        76ers L ~ inj: embiid only 3rd gm back
        suns L ~ dd
        bulls P ~ borderline

        ytd n/a tally:
        dd: 1-1
        b2b: 0-1
        ?inj: 0-2
        borderline: 2-0-1
        Comment
        • mundane
          SBR MVP
          • 02-25-08
          • 3592

          #5
          12/3 1 play

          knicks +1.5 (mavs -1.5 #-3.42)

          --------
          n/a:
          bucks -6 (-6.5) #10.81 ~ b2b. bigtime NO play! starters on rest. not even gonna tally this one. edit: decided to tally this one. it was a kneejerk reaction on my part. it wasn't like a play that became a no play in the first place.
          Last edited by mundane; 12-04-22, 09:41 PM. Reason: starters rest
          Comment
          • mundane
            SBR MVP
            • 02-25-08
            • 3592

            #6
            knicks L

            ytd: 3-2 60%
            Comment
            • mundane
              SBR MVP
              • 02-25-08
              • 3592

              #7
              12/4 no plays

              ------
              n/a:
              *don't know how to go abt same w/l rec. posting fwiw. here's the calc.
              home calc: pelicans +1.5 #4.50 no play
              road calc: nuggets -1.5 #-4.50 play other side. pelicans +1.5 (-2) ~ n/a though. mccollum only 2nd game back.

              sac -1.5 #9.62 ~ borderline play | sac -1 ~ n/a. b2b


              ps. posting all these n/a plays for end of season final 'system' analysis. so hoping i can keep doing this til season's end.
              Last edited by mundane; 12-04-22, 09:54 PM.
              Comment
              • takethepnts
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-18-13
                • 581

                #8
                Good luck and thanks for sharing.
                Comment
                • mundane
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-25-08
                  • 3592

                  #9
                  n/a results: (*n/a meaning not an official system play for those wondering)
                  pelicans W ~ inj. mccollum
                  sac W ~ borderline/b2b

                  ytd n/a tally:
                  dd: 1-1
                  b2b: 1-1
                  inj: 1-2
                  borderline: 3-0 ~ so far so good with these borderline plays.

                  -----
                  system plays ytd: 3-2 60%
                  Comment
                  • mundane
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-25-08
                    • 3592

                    #10
                    12/5
                    suns +3.5 #10.28 ~ b2b filter
                    bucks -8.5 (-12.5) #14.45 ~ inj. filter - middleton only 2nd gm back. *got a W though even w/ injury filter & played b2b.
                    gsw -9.5 #-5.50 ~ play other side | pacers +9.5 (+5) *playing b2b though.
                    celtics -1.5 #9 ~ borderline play | celtics pickem or better *also playing b2b.

                    no system plays as none passed the filter/s. 3 b2b games and 1 with injury filter.
                    Comment
                    • mundane
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-25-08
                      • 3592

                      #11
                      suns L
                      bucks L
                      pacers W
                      celtics W

                      ytd n/a tally:
                      dd: 1-1
                      b2b: 2-2
                      inj: 1-3
                      borderline: 4-0(!)

                      -----
                      system plays ytd: 3-2 60%

                      -----
                      12/6 no plays
                      Comment
                      • mundane
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-25-08
                        • 3592

                        #12
                        12/7 no system play

                        n/a:
                        pelicans -9.5 (-13.5) #14.11 ~ inj. filter: mccollum only 3rd game back.
                        lakers +11.5 ~ b2b/inj. james & davis [raptors -11.5 #-5.24 play other side]
                        warriors +6.5 (+5) ~ inj. filter: curry, green & wiggins [jazz -6.5 #-2.58 play other side]
                        clippers -6 #9.00 ~ borderline | clippers -5 or better
                        Last edited by mundane; 12-07-22, 02:34 PM. Reason: line changed - james listed out 1:30pm est
                        Comment
                        • mundane
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-25-08
                          • 3592

                          #13
                          pelicans L
                          lakers L
                          warriors W
                          clippers L

                          n/a tally:
                          dd: 1-1
                          b2b: 2-3
                          inj: 2-4
                          borderline: 4-1

                          -----
                          12/8 no system play | ytd: 3-2 60%

                          n/a:
                          spurs +2.5 (+1) [rockets -2.5 #-3.42 play other side] ~ inj. vassell doubtful
                          blazers +1.5 (+1) [nuggets -1.5 #-2.42 play other side] ~ inj. lillard only 2nd gm back
                          Last edited by mundane; 12-08-22, 04:27 PM.
                          Comment
                          • mundane
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-25-08
                            • 3592

                            #14
                            some links for this system

                            reference link for this system(!)

                            08-09 season 17-7 70.83%

                            09-10 season 27-10 72.9% per one poster. see #759

                            10-11 awful season
                            Comment
                            • mundane
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-25-08
                              • 3592

                              #15
                              12/9 no system play

                              n/a:
                              hawks +7.5 (+5) [nets -7.5 #-3.58] ~ inj. murray out
                              grizzlies -10.5 (-12) #11.54 ~ dd spread
                              Comment
                              • mundane
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-25-08
                                • 3592

                                #16
                                12/8 result:
                                spurs W
                                blazers W

                                n/a tally:
                                dd: 1-1
                                b2b: 2-3
                                inj: 4-4
                                borderline: 4-1
                                Comment
                                • mundane
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-25-08
                                  • 3592

                                  #17
                                  12/9 result
                                  hawks W
                                  grizzlies W

                                  n/a tally:
                                  dd: 2-1
                                  b2b: 2-3
                                  inj: 5-4
                                  borderline: 4-1
                                  Comment
                                  • mundane
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-25-08
                                    • 3592

                                    #18
                                    12/10 1 system play | ytd: 3-2 60%
                                    celtics -1.5 (-2) #10.88

                                    n/a:
                                    pacers +2.5 (-1) ~ b2b [nets -2.5 #-4.65]
                                    wizards +4.5 (+3) ~ b2b [clippers -4.5 #-2.73]
                                    wolves +5.5 (+4) ~ b2b [blazers -5.5 #-2.50]
                                    jazz +11.5 (+7.5) ~ b2b [nuggets -11.5 #-5.29]
                                    spurs +13.5 or better ~ borderline [heat -11.5 #0.58]
                                    Last edited by mundane; 12-10-22, 05:04 PM. Reason: edit/changes: starters out/line movements
                                    Comment
                                    • KRAL
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 01-11-12
                                      • 45

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by mundane
                                      12/10 1 system play
                                      celtics -1.5 (-2) #10.88

                                      n/a:
                                      pacers +2.5 (-1) ~ b2b [nets -2.5 #-4.65]
                                      wizards +4.5 (+3) ~ b2b [clippers -4.5 #-2.73]
                                      wolves +5.5 (+5) ~ b2b [blazers -5.5 #-1.50]
                                      jazz +7.5 ~ borderline [nuggets -6.5 #-0.29]
                                      spurs +13.5 ~ borderline [heat -11.5 #0.58]
                                      Play is jazz +7.5 or better right?
                                      Comment
                                      • mundane
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-25-08
                                        • 3592

                                        #20
                                        yes, jazz +7.5 or better

                                        (!) it's not a system play though (playing b2b, markannen injury & conley just came back). it's what i'm calling a 'borderline' play. # that landed only at 9 or 0 instead of the system # which is 10 or -1. no filter. just pure # calc play. 4-0 until last play.


                                        --------
                                        fyi: edit/corrected calc
                                        wolves +5.5 (+4) ~ b2b [blazers -5.5 #-2.50]
                                        Last edited by mundane; 12-10-22, 04:57 PM. Reason: clarkson listed out
                                        Comment
                                        • mundane
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-25-08
                                          • 3592

                                          #21
                                          edit/changes: starters out/line movements

                                          nets +7.5 #5.35 no play | nets starters listed as out. with the new spread, # landed at 5.35. no play on either nets or pacers.

                                          jazz +11.5 (+7.5) ~ b2b [nuggets -11.5 #-5.29 play other side] *note(!) conley clarkson & markannen out

                                          ** see changes above.
                                          Comment
                                          • mundane
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-25-08
                                            • 3592

                                            #22
                                            12/11 2 system plays

                                            pistons +5.5 [lakers -5.5 #-1.00]
                                            bucks -9.5 (-11) #11.50

                                            *finally getting some plays!
                                            Comment
                                            • mundane
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-25-08
                                              • 3592

                                              #23
                                              12/10 results:

                                              celtics L
                                              ytd: 3-3 50%

                                              ------
                                              wizards L
                                              wolves L
                                              jazz W
                                              spurs W

                                              n/a tally:
                                              dd: 2-1
                                              b2b: 3-5
                                              inj: 5-4
                                              borderline: 5-1
                                              Comment
                                              • mundane
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-25-08
                                                • 3592

                                                #24
                                                12/11 results
                                                pistons L
                                                bucks L

                                                ytd: 3-5

                                                ———-
                                                12/12 2 plays (i think. lol not sure with my calcs today)
                                                pacers +3.5
                                                thunder +8.5

                                                n/a:
                                                wizards +6.5 ~ borderline
                                                wolves +6 or better ~ borderline
                                                hawks +11 or better - borderline

                                                *blackout in my area/winterstorm. might not be able to update. if i miss anything, kindly just comment… if you’re (still) ff this thread! lolz
                                                Last edited by mundane; 12-12-22, 05:12 PM. Reason: missed calcs. doing this on mobile. lacking resources. :/
                                                Comment
                                                • KRAL
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 01-11-12
                                                  • 45

                                                  #25
                                                  Be safe bro.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mundane
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-25-08
                                                    • 3592

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by KRAL
                                                    Be safe bro.
                                                    thanks bro!

                                                    ——-

                                                    edit/calc:

                                                    pacers +3.5 #10.25 *missed calc from earlier. not having my spreadsheet/laptop is really throwing me off. smh

                                                    wolves +6 or better ~ borderline
                                                    hawks +11 or better - borderline
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mundane
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-25-08
                                                      • 3592

                                                      #27
                                                      12/12 results
                                                      pacers L
                                                      thunder W
                                                      ytd: 4-6

                                                      n/a:
                                                      wiz L
                                                      wolves L
                                                      hawks L
                                                      borderline tally: 5-4
                                                      ———-
                                                      12/13 no system play

                                                      n/a:
                                                      bucks -3.5 or better ~ borderline
                                                      celtics -3 or better ~ borderline

                                                      *will recheck calcs when things go back to normal. be safe everyone and goodluck!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mundane
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-25-08
                                                        • 3592

                                                        #28
                                                        12/13 results:
                                                        bucks W
                                                        celtics W

                                                        n/a tally:
                                                        dd: 2-1
                                                        b2b: 3-5
                                                        inj: 5-4
                                                        borderline: 7-4

                                                        ------

                                                        12/14 2 system play | ytd: 4-6 40%

                                                        pacers +1.5 (-2) [warriors -1.5 #-4.50] *same w/l
                                                        thunder +3.5 (+1) [heat -3.5 #-3.66]


                                                        n/a:
                                                        wolves +8 or better ~ borderline play [clippers -6.5 #0.01]
                                                        Last edited by mundane; 12-14-22, 01:51 AM. Reason: gsw/ind line just came out
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mundane
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-25-08
                                                          • 3592

                                                          #29
                                                          12/14 results 2-0
                                                          pacers W
                                                          thunder W

                                                          ytd: 6-6 50%

                                                          -----
                                                          wolves L

                                                          n/a tally:
                                                          dd: 2-1
                                                          b2b: 3-5
                                                          inj: 5-4
                                                          borderline: 7-5
                                                          -------


                                                          12/15 1 system play

                                                          rockets +5.5 [heat -5.5 #-1.03]

                                                          n/a:
                                                          clippers +5.5 ~ b2b [suns -5.5 #-8.26]
                                                          Last edited by mundane; 12-15-22, 05:13 PM. Reason: kawhi & paul ruled out/booker in/adjusted line
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mundane
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-25-08
                                                            • 3592

                                                            #30
                                                            12/16 no system play

                                                            -----------
                                                            n/a:
                                                            hawks +3.5 (+1.5) #12.14 ~ inj. capela out; hayward in
                                                            warriors +9.5 (+8) ~ inj. curry & d. green [76ers -9.5 #-2.86]
                                                            celtics -13.5 (-15) #11.91 ~ dd spread

                                                            pacers +9.5 ~ borderline [cavs -7.5 #0.67]
                                                            Last edited by mundane; 12-16-22, 02:02 PM. Reason: late inj line movements
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mundane
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-25-08
                                                              • 3592

                                                              #31
                                                              12/15 result 1-0
                                                              rockets W

                                                              system ytd: 7-6 54%

                                                              ---------
                                                              clippers L

                                                              n/a tally:
                                                              dd: 2-1
                                                              b2b: 3-6
                                                              inj: 5-4
                                                              borderline: 7-5
                                                              Last edited by mundane; 12-16-22, 12:54 AM.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mundane
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-25-08
                                                                • 3592

                                                                #32
                                                                12/16 n/a results:
                                                                hawks W
                                                                warriors L
                                                                celtics L
                                                                pacers W

                                                                n/a tally:
                                                                dd: 2-2
                                                                b2b: 3-6
                                                                inj: 6-5
                                                                borderline: 8-5

                                                                ----------
                                                                12/17 no plays
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mundane
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-25-08
                                                                  • 3592

                                                                  #33
                                                                  12/18 1 system play

                                                                  nuggets -8.5
                                                                  (-11) #12.79

                                                                  -----
                                                                  n/a:
                                                                  celtics -10.5 (-13) #12.50 ~ dd spread
                                                                  pacers +1 ~ borderline [knicks pk #-0.41]
                                                                  wolves +2.5 ~ borderline [wolves +1.5 #9.00]
                                                                  Last edited by mundane; 12-18-22, 08:45 AM. Reason: added wolves
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mundane
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-25-08
                                                                    • 3592

                                                                    #34
                                                                    12/18 system result:

                                                                    nuggets L

                                                                    system ytd: 7-7 50%

                                                                    ------
                                                                    n/a results:
                                                                    celtics L
                                                                    pacers L
                                                                    wolves W

                                                                    n/a tally:
                                                                    dd: 2-3
                                                                    b2b: 3-6
                                                                    inj: 6-5
                                                                    borderline: 9-6

                                                                    -------

                                                                    12/19 system play

                                                                    kings -8.5
                                                                    (-9.5) #11.40

                                                                    ------
                                                                    n/a:
                                                                    thunder +7.5 (+6.5) ~ inj shai g-alexander [blazers -7.5 #-2.17]
                                                                    wolves +3.5 (-2) ~ b2b [mavs -3.5 #-6.50] *same w/l
                                                                    spurs +4 ~ borderline [rockets -3.5 #-0.50] *same w/l
                                                                    pelicans +3.5 ~ borderline [bucks -1.5 #0.67]
                                                                    Last edited by mundane; 12-19-22, 02:52 PM.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • mundane
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-25-08
                                                                      • 3592

                                                                      #35
                                                                      12/20 1 possible system play

                                                                      nuggets +1.5 (pk) [grizzlies -1.5 #-2.78] *kcp, murray & jokic all listed as gtd. if they all play, this would be a system play. if one is out, this becomes a NO Play. will be downgraded to N/A ~ non-system play due to starter injury filter.
                                                                      Comment
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