70% system 2010-2011

[Welt446+]

Here's last year's thread: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-tracking.html


Tonight the Jazz are a play at -9.5 or better.

[pm4e]

good luck with the play today!

[barts185]

Good Luck this year. I'll try to chime in when I can, but have other issues that prevent me from spending the time I did last year.

Hope it brings us winners this year.

Take Care,
Bart

[PatrickBateman]

Glad to see this is back, Thanks

[smallbluedonkey]

I followed this along with a few of my own variants last year from mid-January and it was quite successful. Lets see how it fares this time around.

[doublej95]

good luck on the Jazz tonight.

[smallbluedonkey]

Ouch! missed it by 0.5 pts. Awaiting the next one.

[Welt446+]

Tough loss by half a point last night

0-1 thus far

Tonight we have:

Pistons at +6.5

Mavericks at -9



Seems strange to have three picks this early.

[brahmabull117]

mavericks at -9?? really

that team has been just god awful at covering big spreads in recent years...I still have nightmares of that 2 point win against the worst team in the league (sacramento a few days ago)

[PSABB]

Interesting stuff. Where is this spreadsheet for tracking purposes though?

[PatrickBateman]

brahmabull,

These are strick objective number plays. No subjctivity to them at all

[barts185]

Seems strange to have three picks this early.

And if DEN had played one more game, whether they won or lost that game, they would also be a play tonight. Does seem strange.

[PatrickBateman]

Tyson Chandler is Questionable Tonight for the Mavs. He was a starter in their last game, so without him, Mavs are a NO PLAY (Rule - Do not play on a team with a injured starter)

[barts185]

Looks like he (Tyson Chandler) has the bug that's going around the NBA. He missed the morning shootaround.

[PatrickBateman]

Looks like the line opened at -9.5/9 and has dropped to -8.5

[ebbearsfb1]

So only pistons r now?

[Welt446+]

Tyson Chandler is Questionable Tonight for the Mavs. He was a starter in their last game, so without him, Mavs are a NO PLAY (Rule - Do not play on a team with a injured starter)

Crap...I'm already on the Mavs

Yeah, that one won't count if he doesn't play.

Where's a good place to find injury information?

[TheChancellor]

You guys are forgetting that Brendan Haywood, who IMO is better than Tyson Chandler, will be filling his position. The Mavericks are no less dangerous with Haywood clogging up the middle. He's a great rebounder and shot blocker. Only thing the Mavs are missing is Tyson's athleticism. Haywood will make up for that on the defensive end.

[rfr3sh]

Crap...I'm already on the Mavs Yeah, that one won't count if he doesn't play. Where's a good place to find injury information?

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/injury/injuries.html

[classhandicapper]

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/injury/injuries.html

What is ATS* and O/U*?

Some of them look way off.

[bozeman]

i am still going for mavs, good luck on pistons guys

[barts185]

What is ATS* and O/U*?

Some of them look way off.

Against the spread and over / under.

I just looked at this, so someone else chime in if this is incorrect, but here's how I think you read it.

Using the first player listed, Joe Johnson, as an example.

He's been out since 12/01. While he's been out, Atlanta has played 4 games, and is 1-3 ATS and has had 1 over and 3 unders.

Actually, while the 12/01 is true for Joe Johnson, looking at others, it doesn't look like that is the date they have been out since, but just the last time the status was updated. I guess you would have to look at hom many games they've been out and then look at a schedule to see how long time-wise it's been.

The current vs. season will differ if this is not the first time they've been out this year, with current showing how they've done since the player was out this time, and Season showing how the team has done for all games this Season when that player has been out.

[Joe Dogs]

Interesting system......Does anyone by chance,have the win lose records from last year using this system.

[kidcd]

Like the Mavs also good luck with the system this year.

[barts185]

Interesting system......Does anyone by chance,have the win lose records from last year using this system.

It gets a little convoluted due to disagreements on how to deal with injuries (do you wait a week if someone's been out for 2 games?) , but approximately 28-10 last year.

[Joe Dogs]

Thanks barts 185.......28-10...Not bad.

Lets hope the success continues this season.

[joanapoker]

I'm on DET also!


already 9 pts down at HT

[PockyStick]

...

[Welt446+]

It gets a little convoluted due to disagreements on how to deal with injuries (do you wait a week if someone's been out for 2 games?) , but approximately 28-10 last year.

I'd wait a week so they can get back into the swing of things. Otherwise, it's hard to tell if the team is at full strength.

[Welt446+]

Mavs doesn't count so we are currently 0-2. I'm not concerned - and as long as you are using good money management, you shouldn't be either.

Unless the spread is only single digits for the Lakers game, everything that qualifies numerically is disqualified due to injury.

[barts185]

I'd wait a week so they can get back into the swing of things. Otherwise, it's hard to tell if the team is at full strength.

This is where the largest amount of disagrement was last year. And I'm not disagreeing with you. But what if someone misses 1 game (or 2) due to the flu bug that's going around the NBA? Do you wait a week?

Or what if everyone has been healthy, but the coach uses different starting lineups at times?

Take Care,
Bart

[jim844]

any plays for today?
bol to all

[barts185]

Mavs doesn't count so we are currently 0-2. I'm not concerned - and as long as you are using good money management, you shouldn't be either.

Unless the spread is only single digits for the Lakers game, everything that qualifies numerically is disqualified due to injury.

Lakers game is single digits, but Lakers are on B2B, so aren't elgible.


Just wondering about a couple of other games

Are the Hornets elminated due to David West having had the flu and missed 2 games? So you have them as a no play until when - 12/10?

For the Thunder, Durant missed 2 games due to his knee, this is 3rd game back. Also no play until 12/10?

Thanks,
Bart

[PatrickBateman]

barts185,

I have been watching this for about 2 years now since I first saw it on the forums. The injury filter is always a matter of heated debate. This is just my two cents from what I have written down while watching this system---> When a starter goes out with a SIGNIFICANT injury, you avoid playing that team for one week. Alternately, you do not play on that team until the starter has returned for one week.

After looking at the Durant injury, it does not seem to have been a SIGNIFICANT injury. He missed just two games (sidenote: I would not have played them had they triggered the system those two games) The idea of the SIGNIFICANT injury is that the player has missed a lot of time and may not be 100% game shape or does not have 100% chemistry with the team.

However, looking into the Durant injury further two things jump out to me: (1) It was a minor injury and (2) He played well in the two games he has been back (57 points, 3 assists and 12 rebounds) His stats in those two games match his season average.

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? Well in my PERSONAL opinion, I would play this game because it seems as though Durant is playing 100%. Had he only been scoring 10 points or something like that, it would be a pass for me.

This is my opinion and this is your thread, so I would not disagree with you were you to PASS on this play. In fact, to keep things simple and free of debate it would probably be best to PASS and follow the systems rules objectively. Anyone playing/following this system can decide for themselves if they would personally play this or pass.

[PatrickBateman]

Just some extra info - This system seems to have been so successful in the past because it is VERY VERY SELECTIVE in its plays. Previous years people complain that there are too few plays. My response to that is, just increase the amount you bet on it. What is better, to win around 50% of 100 games betting $10 or betting $1000 on a few games and winning 65-70%? Degenerates need everyday action, people that make money DONT. This system picks VALUE of plays, not QUANTITY.