NCAA System Plays 2026

[Aunty808]

After reading different opinions on what wins football games, I've settled on six different criteria to use to find who wins the game, SU and ATS.
In a nutshell...
(1) Win Percentage + Defense SRS = Lean
(2) Higher Ranked Team in PPN (Net Points per Drive) and DPD (Defensive Points per Drive) + (1) Lean
(3) Higher Ranked Team in Net AdjEPA/Play + (1) Lean + (2) PPN/DPD = System Play
The last criteria is used to find the DOG PLAYS using the above method.


Week 4 System Plays
5 ND-30' at Purdue
5 Kan St-6' at Cinn**(Upset Alert!)
5 UTSA-12' vs Col St
5 NMex-12' at NMST
5 Mia Fla-41' vs CMich
5 Louisiana-10' at Char
5 UNLV-13' at Akron
5 Liberty-2' at CoCar
5 So Fla-19' at B Green
5 **VTech-13' at BC **(VTech is a 100% pick at covers= FADE play BC)


4 Ohio St-27' vs Illinois**(subset DOG)
4 Penn St-9' vs Wisc** (subset DOG)
4*Baylor-10' vs Col
4 Kentucky-20' vs So Ala
4 Auburn-9' vs Vandy**(Upset Alert!)
4 LSU-8' vs Tex A&M**(Upset Alert!)
4*Ala-12' vs So Car
4 Clem-1' at Cal (play was made when Clem was a Dog, now favored)
4*Neb-5' at Mich St**(Upset Alert!)
4 SDST+2' at Toledo (SDST is the only DOG play this week, last week was 7 DOGS) (lean Toledo)

3*Indy-21' vs Northwestern**(Upset Alert!)
3 Texas-4' at Tenn**(Upset Alert!)
3*Army-3' at Temple
3 Mich-5' vs Iowa**(Upset Alert!)

2 Oreg-3' at USC**(Upset Alert!) + (subset DOG)
2 Kent St-3' vs Ball St**(subset DOG)
2 Jax St-7' vs MTST (lean MTST)

There's five games with a *. It's in my notes but I didn't I don't know what it means. I'll just track it here and see what happens.
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Looking at last week, the favorites went 14-3 straight up and 8-9 ATS. The dogs went 1-6 straight up and 6-1 ATS
I did not use the criteria to find the Upset Alert dogs last week because I only found it a couple of days ago.

Very small sample size, do your homework and good luck 2 all!

NOTE: if no line is posted, I use the covers contest closing lines to grade the plays.

[Aunty808]

I forgot to leave another set of DOGS that did not fall into the System.

WF+13' at Louis
WMich+7 vs Boise St
App St+14' at NCST
Tulsa+7' at Arkansas

[Aunty808]

RECAP Week 4
5* Group
Notre Dame, UTSA, New Mexico, Miami Fl, Louisiana, UNLV and Liberty all won straight up and ATS. South Fla won straight up but lost ATS.
Kansas St was on Upset Alert and they did get upset by Cinny, 31-26.
Virginia Tech won straight up but lost ATS. I noted that because the players in the covers contest pick percentage was 100%, Virginia Tech became an auto FADE. The play was on Boston College, who lost straight up but won ATS 14-21.

4* Group
Kentucky, Alabama and Clemson won straight up and ATS.

*Note- When I list the System Plays, I'll leave notes next to some games. The notes mean that although the System is picking the team, the notes are saying be cautious of the pick because they might get upset (Upset Alert), or in the case of a subset dog note, those dogs might bite. Other notes, lean, means I personally am leaning towards that team instead of the system pick.

Ohio St and Penn State were the two teams with the subset dog note. Both dogs were live as Ohio St won straight up but lost ATS and Penn St lost outright to Wisconsin.

Auburn was on Upset Alert won straight up but lost ATS to Vandy. LSU and Nebraska were on Upset Alert. Nebraska beat Michigan State straight up and ATS. Did any of you actually take Texas A&M? After losing to Ole Miss last week, you should've seen the beating A&M was in for. LSU 35-6. Kiffin was pi$$ed.
Baylor, they won straight up but lost by a half point to Colorado. Close but no cigar......
Then there was San Diego St, the only dog that the System picked this week. The got dirty lickin, 16-41. My lean was toward Toledo. Sneaky Team...... I'd play them when they are dogs.

3* Group
Army, depending on your line, either won ATS or lost ATS. I had 3' so it won. I did see some 4' out there.
Indiana, Texas and Michigan were all on Upset Alert. Indiana won straight up but lost ATS to Northwestern, who almost won the game straight up! Texas went to Tennessee and won straight up but lost ATS. I had to leave for work when the score was tied at 10. Was disappointed that Vols couldn't pull off the win. How ironic, Michigan win after adding a second to the game a couple of weeks ago, and then today they lose to Iowa with no time left!! WOOF! WOOF! All three Upset Alert teams won ATS.

2*
Oregon, Kent State and Jax State all won and covered.
Oregon and Kent State were they two teams with a subset dog note and Oregon was also on Upset Alert.
Jax st, note said lean to MTST.
Notes didn't matter in this group, clean sweep, 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS.
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ADDED Plays
These were games that did not meet the criteria to be a System Play. I found these dogs.
Wake Forest+13' won ML at Louisville.
W Michigan got blown out by Boise St.
App St-12' lost straight up but won ATS.
Tulsa+7' lost both straight up and ATS to of all teams, ARKANSAS! I jumped on Tulsa and used them as my Survivor pick.......so sad....losing to A R K A N S A S!! If it's too good to be true..........stay away!
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I had some time this morning so I went through the entire schedule and used the 6th criteria alone to see what I could find. I color coded all the games. Green means play, orange means lean. I eliminated the leans as there were too many losses. Listed below are the remaining games that were marked green.
**Games do not include any of the other criteria used for the System Plays, only 6th criteria used.

S/U 6-3 ATS 7-2 O/U 8-1
Sam Hou at Texas Tech-34
Sam Hou was a 100% pick in the covers contest, auto FADE and play Texas Tech. Tech won 49-14 straight up and ATS. The game went OVER 56 (63)

UCLA-2' at Maryland
UCLA won straight up and ATS and the game went OVER55' (57)

Ole Miss+4' at Florida
They were still celebrating whipping Kiffin's arse...they forgot to show up!! They lost straight up and ATS, 28-52. The game went OVER 58' (80)

TCU at UCF+3
UCF won straight up and ATS and the game stayed under the total, 21-13 UNDER 48 (34)

Utah-7' at Iowa State
Utah won straight up and ATS and the game went OVER 47 (48) 31-17.

App St+12' at NCST
App St lost straight up but won ATS, 31-41 and the game went OVER56' (72)

Fla Atl-11' at ULMonroe
Fla Atlantic won straight up and ATS and the game went OVER 58 (62)

Rice at Fresno St-11'
Fresno won straight up and ATS and the game went OVER43' (62)

Minn at Wash-12'
Washington lost straight up and ATS, 24-27 and the game went OVER 45 (51).

Guess what? I think I found a method to finding high scoring games.
I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it though, brand new....very small sample size.
I'll track them here each week.
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Let me add a first final note.....
The 6th criteria that I use to find the plays does not care who the QB is, does not care about the weather, or who's injured, nor does it take into consideration any outside distractions. That's your job. All it cares about is who you played and if you won or lost. Period. So, DO YOUR HOMEWORK!

On a final note, doing these recaps is my least favorite part of doing these system plays. I feel like I'm in high school again and have to do homework.....it sucks. I never did my homework in high school. The only reason I passed all my classes and graduated was because they, the teachers, didn't want to see my face another year...lol......

I'll try and post the plays ASAP to give everyone time to do your own handicapping. The part that slows me down is waiting for the updated stats each week. Usually by Wednesday, the sites are all updated and that's when I go through the schedule. Lots of numbers......

** I try to be as accurate as possible, but being human, I am not perfect, I will make mistakes in the recaps. Reply and comment if you find an error and I will fix it.

THE END

[Aunty808]

I did the whole schedule and have the System's Plays, but, I want to tweak it using a different stat to see what pops up.

Read Upset Alert Woof! Woof! thread for explanation.

Will post plays either late tonight or tomorrow.