After reading different opinions on what wins football games, I've settled on six different criteria to use to find who wins the game, SU and ATS.
In a nutshell...
(1) Win Percentage + Defense SRS = Lean
(2) Higher Ranked Team in PPN (Net Points per Drive) and DPD (Defensive Points per Drive) + (1) Lean
(3) Higher Ranked Team in Net AdjEPA/Play + (1) Lean + (2) PPN/DPD = System Play
The last criteria is used to find the DOG PLAYS using the above method.
Week 4 System Plays
5 ND-30' at Purdue
5 Kan St-6' at Cinn**(Upset Alert!)
5 UTSA-12' vs Col St
5 NMex-12' at NMST
5 Mia Fla-41' vs CMich
5 Louisiana-10' at Char
5 UNLV-13' at Akron
5 Liberty-2' at CoCar
5 So Fla-19' at B Green
5 **VTech-13' at BC **(VTech is a 100% pick at covers= FADE play BC)
4 Ohio St-27' vs Illinois**(subset DOG)
4 Penn St-9' vs Wisc** (subset DOG)
4*Baylor-10' vs Col
4 Kentucky-20' vs So Ala
4 Auburn-9' vs Vandy**(Upset Alert!)
4 LSU-8' vs Tex A&M**(Upset Alert!)
4*Ala-12' vs So Car
4 Clem-1' at Cal (play was made when Clem was a Dog, now favored)
4*Neb-5' at Mich St**(Upset Alert!)
4 SDST+2' at Toledo (SDST is the only DOG play this week, last week was 7 DOGS) (lean Toledo)
3*Indy-21' vs Northwestern**(Upset Alert!)
3 Texas-4' at Tenn**(Upset Alert!)
3*Army-3' at Temple
3 Mich-5' vs Iowa**(Upset Alert!)
2 Oreg-3' at USC**(Upset Alert!) + (subset DOG)
2 Kent St-3' vs Ball St**(subset DOG)
2 Jax St-7' vs MTST (lean MTST)
There's five games with a *. It's in my notes but I didn't I don't know what it means. I'll just track it here and see what happens.
========
Looking at last week, the favorites went 14-3 straight up and 8-9 ATS. The dogs went 1-6 straight up and 6-1 ATS
I did not use the criteria to find the Upset Alert dogs last week because I only found it a couple of days ago.
Very small sample size, do your homework and good luck 2 all!
NOTE: if no line is posted, I use the covers contest closing lines to grade the plays.
In a nutshell...
(1) Win Percentage + Defense SRS = Lean
(2) Higher Ranked Team in PPN (Net Points per Drive) and DPD (Defensive Points per Drive) + (1) Lean
(3) Higher Ranked Team in Net AdjEPA/Play + (1) Lean + (2) PPN/DPD = System Play
The last criteria is used to find the DOG PLAYS using the above method.
Week 4 System Plays
5 ND-30' at Purdue
5 Kan St-6' at Cinn**(Upset Alert!)
5 UTSA-12' vs Col St
5 NMex-12' at NMST
5 Mia Fla-41' vs CMich
5 Louisiana-10' at Char
5 UNLV-13' at Akron
5 Liberty-2' at CoCar
5 So Fla-19' at B Green
5 **VTech-13' at BC **(VTech is a 100% pick at covers= FADE play BC)
4 Ohio St-27' vs Illinois**(subset DOG)
4 Penn St-9' vs Wisc** (subset DOG)
4*Baylor-10' vs Col
4 Kentucky-20' vs So Ala
4 Auburn-9' vs Vandy**(Upset Alert!)
4 LSU-8' vs Tex A&M**(Upset Alert!)
4*Ala-12' vs So Car
4 Clem-1' at Cal (play was made when Clem was a Dog, now favored)
4*Neb-5' at Mich St**(Upset Alert!)
4 SDST+2' at Toledo (SDST is the only DOG play this week, last week was 7 DOGS) (lean Toledo)
3*Indy-21' vs Northwestern**(Upset Alert!)
3 Texas-4' at Tenn**(Upset Alert!)
3*Army-3' at Temple
3 Mich-5' vs Iowa**(Upset Alert!)
2 Oreg-3' at USC**(Upset Alert!) + (subset DOG)
2 Kent St-3' vs Ball St**(subset DOG)
2 Jax St-7' vs MTST (lean MTST)
There's five games with a *. It's in my notes but I didn't I don't know what it means. I'll just track it here and see what happens.
========
Looking at last week, the favorites went 14-3 straight up and 8-9 ATS. The dogs went 1-6 straight up and 6-1 ATS
I did not use the criteria to find the Upset Alert dogs last week because I only found it a couple of days ago.
Very small sample size, do your homework and good luck 2 all!
NOTE: if no line is posted, I use the covers contest closing lines to grade the plays.