LA Clippers best fade in NBA's West
Follow Marcus Camby's new team and fade his old squad. That's the new betting rule when it comes to Western Conference teams. Chris Kaman and his fellow Clippers are once again playing out the string, though the future isn't as bleak as this season. Meanwhile in Portland, the Blazers have found new life with their new big man and look to move up at least one notch to avoid the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs.
It’s March, and all is strangely quiet in the NBA’s Western Conference. Where’s the playoff drama? There’s a clear separation (for once) between the Top 8 teams in the West and the rest of the pack.
Division titles are still up for grabs, but unless something drastic happens, it’s going to be a fairly uneventful trek to the postseason.
No skin off our nose. If some of the Western teams don’t feel particularly motivated to win, we can use that to pound the betting odds into a fine paste. Here are my “fade” and “follow” picks for the month – the common thread between the two should be easy to spot.
Fade: Los Angeles Clippers
It’s another lost season for the Clippers (25-38 SU, 28-34-1 ATS). They’ve already pulled the chute; Mike Dunleavy has stepped down as coach in order to retain his GM position, and Marcus Camby was sent to the Portland Trail Blazers for Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and the maximum $3 million in cash. That’ll make owner Donald Sterling a happy man. Clippers fans, on the other hand, have watched their team go 4-8 SU and ATS since dealing Camby to Portland.
This isn’t necessarily a bad deal for L.A. in the long run. The Clippers still have Chris Kaman at center, and next year they expect to have Wooden Award winner Blake Griffin at power forward after the No. 1-overall pick missed this season with a stress fracture in his left knee. Blake and Outlaw are both useful players on a team that needs some depth.
But the current starting rotation looks pretty bad without Camby. He led the team with a plus-4.7 Roland Rating and an 18.4 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), grabbing 13.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. Camby’s replacement, Drew Gooden, can certainly rebound (11.0 boards per 36 minutes as a Clipper), but doesn’t hold a candle to Camby on defense.
Handicappers have to consider the Clippers as solid “tank” candidates. There are nine NBA teams with worse records than Los Angeles, but only three have worse point differentials than L.A. at minus-5.1. A good losing streak can put the Clips right in the thick of the draft lottery. Also, they’re 4-10 SU and ATS under interim head coach Kim Hughes, a longtime scout and assistant who’s making his debut at this level. Operation Shutdown should be in full effect.
Follow: Portland Trail Blazers
On the flip side, the Blazers (37-28 SU, 35-29-1 ATS) did themselves a huge favor by putting Camby in the middle. Their season was in danger of going down the drain after both Greg Oden (23.2 PER) and Joel Przybilla (11.2 PER) were lost for the season to knee injuries. That left veteran Juwan Howard (9.9 PER) as Portland’s center until Camby came to save the day. The Blazers are 5-3 SU and ATS with the Camby Man (he missed Sunday’s loss to the Denver Nuggets) and four games clear of ninth place in the West with plenty of room for upward mobility.
Portland should be highly motivated to move up the ranks, too. The defending Los Angeles Lakers are in first place in the West, so finishing in eighth place is a virtual death sentence in the first round of the playoffs. The second-place Dallas Mavericks have won 11 games in a row (6-4-1 ATS) with Brendan Haywood at center. There are no easy “gets” in this conference, but the Blazers would probably be much happier facing a team with some more obvious flaws, like the fourth-place Utah Jazz.
As for losing Blake and Outlaw, the Blazers were already overloaded at guard after bringing in Andre Miller (17.9 PER) during the offseason, and they’re well stocked at the wing with Martell Webster (12.7 PER) and the quickly improving Nicolas Batum (18.5 PER).
Portland is a much better balanced squad since the trade. Handicappers will appreciate this team’s continuing small-market status, as well. The Blazers have drawn very few headlines since Oden’s injury and are in prime position to sneak up on the marketplace.
Follow Marcus Camby's new team and fade his old squad. That's the new betting rule when it comes to Western Conference teams. Chris Kaman and his fellow Clippers are once again playing out the string, though the future isn't as bleak as this season. Meanwhile in Portland, the Blazers have found new life with their new big man and look to move up at least one notch to avoid the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs.
It’s March, and all is strangely quiet in the NBA’s Western Conference. Where’s the playoff drama? There’s a clear separation (for once) between the Top 8 teams in the West and the rest of the pack.
Division titles are still up for grabs, but unless something drastic happens, it’s going to be a fairly uneventful trek to the postseason.
No skin off our nose. If some of the Western teams don’t feel particularly motivated to win, we can use that to pound the betting odds into a fine paste. Here are my “fade” and “follow” picks for the month – the common thread between the two should be easy to spot.
Fade: Los Angeles Clippers
It’s another lost season for the Clippers (25-38 SU, 28-34-1 ATS). They’ve already pulled the chute; Mike Dunleavy has stepped down as coach in order to retain his GM position, and Marcus Camby was sent to the Portland Trail Blazers for Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and the maximum $3 million in cash. That’ll make owner Donald Sterling a happy man. Clippers fans, on the other hand, have watched their team go 4-8 SU and ATS since dealing Camby to Portland.
This isn’t necessarily a bad deal for L.A. in the long run. The Clippers still have Chris Kaman at center, and next year they expect to have Wooden Award winner Blake Griffin at power forward after the No. 1-overall pick missed this season with a stress fracture in his left knee. Blake and Outlaw are both useful players on a team that needs some depth.
But the current starting rotation looks pretty bad without Camby. He led the team with a plus-4.7 Roland Rating and an 18.4 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), grabbing 13.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. Camby’s replacement, Drew Gooden, can certainly rebound (11.0 boards per 36 minutes as a Clipper), but doesn’t hold a candle to Camby on defense.
Handicappers have to consider the Clippers as solid “tank” candidates. There are nine NBA teams with worse records than Los Angeles, but only three have worse point differentials than L.A. at minus-5.1. A good losing streak can put the Clips right in the thick of the draft lottery. Also, they’re 4-10 SU and ATS under interim head coach Kim Hughes, a longtime scout and assistant who’s making his debut at this level. Operation Shutdown should be in full effect.
Follow: Portland Trail Blazers
On the flip side, the Blazers (37-28 SU, 35-29-1 ATS) did themselves a huge favor by putting Camby in the middle. Their season was in danger of going down the drain after both Greg Oden (23.2 PER) and Joel Przybilla (11.2 PER) were lost for the season to knee injuries. That left veteran Juwan Howard (9.9 PER) as Portland’s center until Camby came to save the day. The Blazers are 5-3 SU and ATS with the Camby Man (he missed Sunday’s loss to the Denver Nuggets) and four games clear of ninth place in the West with plenty of room for upward mobility.
Portland should be highly motivated to move up the ranks, too. The defending Los Angeles Lakers are in first place in the West, so finishing in eighth place is a virtual death sentence in the first round of the playoffs. The second-place Dallas Mavericks have won 11 games in a row (6-4-1 ATS) with Brendan Haywood at center. There are no easy “gets” in this conference, but the Blazers would probably be much happier facing a team with some more obvious flaws, like the fourth-place Utah Jazz.
As for losing Blake and Outlaw, the Blazers were already overloaded at guard after bringing in Andre Miller (17.9 PER) during the offseason, and they’re well stocked at the wing with Martell Webster (12.7 PER) and the quickly improving Nicolas Batum (18.5 PER).
Portland is a much better balanced squad since the trade. Handicappers will appreciate this team’s continuing small-market status, as well. The Blazers have drawn very few headlines since Oden’s injury and are in prime position to sneak up on the marketplace.
