Minus Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns meet Thunder
The last time these two teams met, Oklahoma City snapped a nine-game losing skid against Phoenix. Now the Thunder enters tonight's game on its home floor at Ford Center riding a nine-game winning streak and ready to face a Phoenix squad that will be without Steve Nash. A bad back finally caught up to the Suns' catalyst, and Nash won't even be on the sidelines for this Tuesday night 8 p.m. tip-off.
Maybe Steve Nash is a little too popular.
The two-time MVP didn’t get much downtime during the All-Star break. Nash went to Vancouver to participate in the Olympic Games opening ceremonies, then hopped on a plane for Dallas to be one of the four contestants in the Skills Competition – which he won.
All well and good, but his NBA employers, the Phoenix Suns, are playing four games over the next six days. Nash will only play three of them; he’ll remain behind as the Suns (34-23 SU, 31-26 ATS) travel to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder on Tuesday night.
Not that Nash should be criticized for not resting up during the All-Star Weekend. He’s an ambassador for the sport and a highly conditioned athlete, mentally as well as physically. But purely from a basketball perspective, the Suns are ripe for the picking without Nash (20.9 points, 13.3 assists per 40 minutes) at the helm. And the Thunder are just the team to do it. They’ve won their last nine games in a row (at 6-3 ATS) to climb a half-game above the Suns into fifth place in the Western Conference.
I’ve been banging the drum for Oklahoma City this year – not easy for me after what the league did to the Sonics, but that’s that kind of thing I’ll let slide considering the Thunder have the most profitable record in the West at 33-21 SU and ATS. The conditions in OKC are fantastic for handicappers: a rising young team playing in a small market with low expectations after two very bad seasons.
Too bad it can’t last forever. Eventually, people will recognize Kevin Durant (29.8 points, 7.5 rebounds/40) as the superstar he is. Reaching the playoffs and getting on national television will help Durant’s cause.
So will his teammates. Other than Durant, the most important player in OKC is point guard Russell Westbrook, who is having a very good sophomore campaign with 18.6 points, 8.7 assists and 5.9 rebounds per 40 minutes. Westbrook has cut down on his turnover rate and is taking smarter shots, although he still isn’t much of a shooter at 41.4 percent from the field.
Oklahoma City has also gotten positive results from rookie James Harden (17.3 points, 5.7 boards/40) at shooting guard in relief of defensive specialist Thabo Sefolosha. Fitting that it should be Durant, Westbrook and Harden:
2007: Seattle drafts Durant No. 2 overall
2008: OKC takes Westbrook at No. 4
2009: OKC takes Harden at No. 3
That’s the value of finishing last in the Northwest Division three years in a row. The Suns, meanwhile, have some depth issues in the backcourt after trading away draft picks Nate Robinson, Rajon Rondo and Rudy Fernandez – all hidden gems taken outside of the Top 20 in the first round. Their starting point guard Tuesday night will be sophomore Goran Dragic, who provides Phoenix with 18.6 points and 5.4 assists per 40 minutes and looks much better than he did as a rookie. Leandro Barbosa (wrist) is still out, so that leaves the cupboard bare at point guard.
The difference between Dragic and Nash can’t be ignored here. Most of Dragic’s minutes have come on the second unit playing alongside the likes of Jared Dudley and Earl Clark, so making a direct statistical comparison is going to be a little messy. Be that as it may, when Dragic is on the floor, the Suns are outscored by 0.3 points per 48 minutes. When Nash is on the floor, Phoenix outscores opponents by 4.8 points per 48 minutes.
Dragic’s performance on Tuesday figures to be worse as he competes against Westbrook and the rest of OKC’s first unit. But let’s go ahead and estimate that Nash is worth five points. That would have gone a long way toward making up the opening betting odds; the Thunder were seven-point faves at the open with a total of 201½.
The last time these two teams met, Oklahoma City snapped a nine-game losing skid against Phoenix. Now the Thunder enters tonight's game on its home floor at Ford Center riding a nine-game winning streak and ready to face a Phoenix squad that will be without Steve Nash. A bad back finally caught up to the Suns' catalyst, and Nash won't even be on the sidelines for this Tuesday night 8 p.m. tip-off.
Maybe Steve Nash is a little too popular.
The two-time MVP didn’t get much downtime during the All-Star break. Nash went to Vancouver to participate in the Olympic Games opening ceremonies, then hopped on a plane for Dallas to be one of the four contestants in the Skills Competition – which he won.
All well and good, but his NBA employers, the Phoenix Suns, are playing four games over the next six days. Nash will only play three of them; he’ll remain behind as the Suns (34-23 SU, 31-26 ATS) travel to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder on Tuesday night.
Not that Nash should be criticized for not resting up during the All-Star Weekend. He’s an ambassador for the sport and a highly conditioned athlete, mentally as well as physically. But purely from a basketball perspective, the Suns are ripe for the picking without Nash (20.9 points, 13.3 assists per 40 minutes) at the helm. And the Thunder are just the team to do it. They’ve won their last nine games in a row (at 6-3 ATS) to climb a half-game above the Suns into fifth place in the Western Conference.
I’ve been banging the drum for Oklahoma City this year – not easy for me after what the league did to the Sonics, but that’s that kind of thing I’ll let slide considering the Thunder have the most profitable record in the West at 33-21 SU and ATS. The conditions in OKC are fantastic for handicappers: a rising young team playing in a small market with low expectations after two very bad seasons.
Too bad it can’t last forever. Eventually, people will recognize Kevin Durant (29.8 points, 7.5 rebounds/40) as the superstar he is. Reaching the playoffs and getting on national television will help Durant’s cause.
So will his teammates. Other than Durant, the most important player in OKC is point guard Russell Westbrook, who is having a very good sophomore campaign with 18.6 points, 8.7 assists and 5.9 rebounds per 40 minutes. Westbrook has cut down on his turnover rate and is taking smarter shots, although he still isn’t much of a shooter at 41.4 percent from the field.
Oklahoma City has also gotten positive results from rookie James Harden (17.3 points, 5.7 boards/40) at shooting guard in relief of defensive specialist Thabo Sefolosha. Fitting that it should be Durant, Westbrook and Harden:
2007: Seattle drafts Durant No. 2 overall
2008: OKC takes Westbrook at No. 4
2009: OKC takes Harden at No. 3
That’s the value of finishing last in the Northwest Division three years in a row. The Suns, meanwhile, have some depth issues in the backcourt after trading away draft picks Nate Robinson, Rajon Rondo and Rudy Fernandez – all hidden gems taken outside of the Top 20 in the first round. Their starting point guard Tuesday night will be sophomore Goran Dragic, who provides Phoenix with 18.6 points and 5.4 assists per 40 minutes and looks much better than he did as a rookie. Leandro Barbosa (wrist) is still out, so that leaves the cupboard bare at point guard.
The difference between Dragic and Nash can’t be ignored here. Most of Dragic’s minutes have come on the second unit playing alongside the likes of Jared Dudley and Earl Clark, so making a direct statistical comparison is going to be a little messy. Be that as it may, when Dragic is on the floor, the Suns are outscored by 0.3 points per 48 minutes. When Nash is on the floor, Phoenix outscores opponents by 4.8 points per 48 minutes.
Dragic’s performance on Tuesday figures to be worse as he competes against Westbrook and the rest of OKC’s first unit. But let’s go ahead and estimate that Nash is worth five points. That would have gone a long way toward making up the opening betting odds; the Thunder were seven-point faves at the open with a total of 201½.
