Warriors vs Timberwolves Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The #7 Golden State Warriors take on the #6 Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Semi-Finals.

Series Odds via DraftKings: Timberwolves -175 / Warriors +150

Can Minnesota take the next step or do the Golden State vets have enough left in the tank for another deep run? Post your series and game predictions here.

[SBR Andy]

Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 1 player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists (+108 FanDuel)

"Edwards is the center of attention for Minnesota, especially after scoring 26.8 points per game against the Los Angeles Lakers. However, an underrated part of his game in that series was an increased playmaking ability. Edwards averaged 4.5 assists per game this season, which jumped to 6.2 APG during the first round.

The Timberwolves star cleared this total at an 80% clip throughout the first five postseason games. Further, he went Over this mark in two of four outings against Golden State during the regular season, averaging 5.5 APG in those meetings.

We'll therefore happily take Edwards to assume the role of chief playmaker again tonight at plus money."


Stephen Curry Under 4.5 made 3-pointers (-115 bet365)

"Betting against Curry is seldom a sound choice, especially in the playoffs, which is why we recommend this play at three stars of confidence. While the "Chef" has gone Over this total at a 50% clip across his past 10 games and in 75% of meetings with Minnesota this season, we believe the line is a bit high for Game 1.

The Timberwolves have been defending the 3-point line extremely well this season, tallying the fifth-best opponent's 3-point percentage (35.3%). Further, Curry has only cleared this line in three of seven postseason appearances so far.

We expect him to struggle - relatively speaking - against Minnesota's stingy defense."


Julius Randle Under 20.5 points (-120 DraftKings)

"Randle was one of the most pleasant surprises during the first-round series against Los Angeles. He averaged over 22 points per game while taking full advantage of the Lakers' lack of size down low.

Unfortunately for him, Golden State doesn't struggle to defend the paint or when facing size. The Warriors are tied for the third-fewest points in the paint per game (45.7). Meanwhile, Los Angeles sits 18th (49.4 PPG).

Golden State is also better defensively, and Steve Kerr will surely emphasize slowing Randle down."

[SBR Andy]

Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 1 prediction from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Warriors +7 (-110 Caesars)

"This line is giving the hosts a bit too much credit after they beat a flawed Los Angeles Lakers team. The Timberwolves were exploiting the Lakers' weaknesses throughout the back half of the series, picking on size disadvantages in the paint.

However, those obvious holes don't exist within Golden State's roster.

The Warriors are not only more well-equipped to hang with Minnesota, but they're also the most experienced team remaining. Steve Kerr's squad has been a road underdog 24 times this season while posting a 14-10 ATS record. That includes two outright wins in Houston.

Expect Stephen Curry and Co. to keep it close."

[SBR Andy]

The Warriors take Game 1 but lose Steph Curry to a hamstring injury.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Timberwolves -150 / Warriors +125

[eberetta1]

The Warriors seem to jump to 20 point leads against the Twolves and somehow the Twolves close the gap in the last 5 minutes of regulation. I don't think the Warriors will let that happen this playoff series.

[SBR Andy]

Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 2 prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Timberwolves -9.5 (-115 BetMGM)

"Stephen Curry only played 13 minutes in Game 1 before exiting with a hamstring injury, but the Warriors still outscored the Timberwolves by one point throughout the rest of the game amid his absence.

However, there's a massive difference in a team’s preparation and mindset between losing a player mid-game, and preparing for a new matchup without him.

The Timberwolves are destined for positive shooting regression after producing an all-time worst 12-for-76 from 3-point range over the last two playoff games (and 0-for-15 in the first half during Game 1). That's shocking from a team that ranked fourth in 3-point percentage and fifth in overall 3-pointers during the regular season.

One way to combat its shooting woes is for Minnesota to take advantage of the team's size inside, much like it did during the series against the Lakers.

And defensively, while Minnesota allowed the sixth-most points per possession (1.04) on off-ball screens during the regular season, Golden State’s seventh-best efficiency in that regard (1.05 points per possession offensively) will be tested without Curry.

The Warriors are now 4-1 head-to-head against the Timberwolves this year, with three of those wins coming prior to the Jimmy Butler trade. But Curry tallied three 30-point games against Minnesota across the three regular-season wins, and losing him will be too much to overcome on the road."

[SBR Andy]

Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 2 player prop picks from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Donte DiVincenzo Over 10.5 points (-105 BetMGM)

"Game 1 was ugly for DiVincenzo, but Game 2 will be better. The sharpshooter was a dreadful 3-for-11 from the floor and 1-for-7 from beyond the arc for a pathetic seven points over 33 minutes. The performance brings him to a subpar 29.5% from the floor and 18.4% from deep in the postseason.

With such terrible numbers, why is backing him for over 10.5 points - a number he is yet to clear in the playoffs thus far - such a good bet? His playing time and shot volume have been there, with DiVincenzo soaring over this number versus the Warriors twice in the regular season while averaging 15.

I expect the Warriors to hide the defensively suspect Buddy Hield on DiVincenzo as they look to lock down Anthony Edwards and the Wolves’ much bigger frontcourt. As a result, look for DiVincenzo to finally put a good game together in the postseason."


Buddy Hield Under 15.5 Points (-117 bet365)

"While “Buddard” Hield put together an impressive Game 1 with 24 points (and a memorable press conference), he did so while shooting 62.5% from beyond the arc.

The 19 field goal attempts are a concern, but with more time for Golden State to adjust to life without Curry, the Warriors should have a more coherent game plan to take some work off Hield’s plate.

We saw Hield play without Curry 12 times in the regular season, and he averaged just 13.8 points despite shooting 43.3% from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc. He averaged just 10.6 field goal attempts per game. With the Timberwolves willing to feature Jaden McDaniels on Hield in Game 1, another massive scoring game isn’t on the cards for him."


Julius Randle Over 4.5 Assists (-115 DraftKings)

"As Minnesota's secondary ball-handler, Randle is averaging more potential assists per playoff game (10.5) than primary ball-handler Anthony Edwards (10.2).

However, Edwards is averaging 5.5 assists to Randle’s 4.7. While some of this is due to playmaking quality, the law of large numbers suggests that 4.5 is a lowball projection for Randle.

A look at the regular season numbers helps clarify why this bet has so much value. Randle averaged 4.7 assists on only 8.3 potential assists. Yet despite averaging 2.2 more potential assists in the playoffs, he's averaging the same number of assists that he did in the regular season."

In Game 1, he racked up an impressive six assists but is still underpriced for Game 2."

[SBR Andy]

Minnesota bounces back with a convincing Game 2 victory to tie the series at 1-1.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Timberwolves -320 / Warriors +250

[SBR Andy]

The Timberwolves take both Game 3 and 4 on the road to go up 3-1 in the series.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Timberwolves -4000 / Warriors +1600

[SBR Andy]

Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 5 player prop picks from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Jimmy Butler Under 32.5 points + assists (-110 DraftKings)

"There isn't much left in the tank for Golden State forward Jimmy Butler. The veteran put everything he had into Game 3, finishing with 33 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists. Butler followed that up with 14 points on 5-of-9 shooting and three assists in Game 4.

Betting against Butler is the best way to fade Golden State on Wednesday. He’s only cleared this combo prop once in this series, averaging 21 points and 5.5 assists per game. The Warriors will be eliminated if Butler can’t go for it in Game 5. I expect that to be what happens."


Donte DiVincenzo Under 11.5 points + rebounds (-120 FanDuel)

"Minnesota guard Donte DiVincenzo has been underwhelming in this series. He’s averaging 6.8 points and 2.8 rebounds across 25.3 minutes per game. DiVincenzo has also only cleared this prop twice in his last four outings.

The 28-year-old has produced a negative impact on the floor over the last two games. He posted a minus-14 point differential across 16 minutes in Game 3, and a minus-9 rating in 26 minutes on Monday. I expect Chris Finch to reduce his usage during a game the Wolves need to win."


Draymond Green Over 1.5 3-pointers (+130 FanDuel)

"It’s difficult to push the button on a 3-point prop for Draymond Green. But he’s averaged 1.8 triples on 5.8 attempts per game in this series, cashing the Over here in two of the four contests.

I expect the Warriors to be down in this one, leading to more 3-point attempts from the visitors. The Wolves will live with Green getting his shots up, as his 4-for-10 clip in Game 1 showed. I’ll take the plus-money price given the context."

[ProSportsEdge]

The Warriors seem to jump to 20 point leads against the Twolves and somehow the Twolves close the gap in the last 5 minutes of regulation. I don't think the Warriors will let that happen this playoff series.

Yeah, that’s been the story with the Warriors lately—hot starts, shaky finishes. If they tighten up late-game execution, this series could swing their way. Should be a battle!

[SBR Andy]

Minnesota takes care of business in Game 5 to close out the series and advance to the Western Conference Finals.

Updated odds for the Timberwolves to win the NBA Finals: +550

[challenges999]

Minnesota takes care of business in Game 5 to close out the series and advance to the Western Conference Finals.

Updated odds for the Timberwolves to win the NBA Finals: +550

we need to talk about how good Juluis randle has been cooking in this playoffs

[eberetta1]

Minnesota Timberwolves ready to take on their next victim.

[challenges999]

Minnesota Timberwolves ready to take on their next victim.

watch what will happen to them when they meet MVPSHAI