Fade the Bulls, follow the Bucks in East
If the NBA playoffs started today the Chicago Bulls would be in and the Milwaukee Bucks would be out. But with the league at its halfway point, we know a lot will change between now and the postseason, including the positions of these two. The Bulls' fall from the No. 8 seed could be a rapid one if Joakim Noah's recent injury keeps him out too long. Meanwhile, the Bucks are going to give veteran Jerry Stackhouse a look.
The Leastern Conference is at it again. The great divide between the two NBA conferences has yet to be bridged; there are four excellent clubs at the top of the Eastern standings, but none of the rest would be in playoff position if the league switched to a simple 1-16 format.
The No. 5 team in the East (the Miami Heat) and the No. 11 team in the West (the New Orleans Hornets) share the same record at 23-20.
But we’re only halfway through the 2009-10 season. The standings will almost certainly change between now and then. Someone will rise up from the depths and take a playoff spot from someone else – and those two teams can both make you some money if you fade and follow accordingly.
Fade: Chicago Bulls
As the No. 8 team in the East, the Bulls (20-22 SU, 19-21-2 ATS) already have the most tenuous hold on a playoff spot. But they’re also just 2.5 games behind the Heat for fifth place. There have to be other reasons to pick Chicago to miss the playoffs. No problem.
Let’s start with point differential: The Bulls are being outscored by 3.0 points per game, more than the 15-28 Philadelphia 76ers (2.6 points) in 12th place. Not a good sign.
In Chicago’s defense, power forward Tyrus Thomas (14.2 points, 10.6 rebounds per 40 minutes) missed over a month with a broken left forearm. The Bulls went 5-17 (6-14-2 ATS) without Thomas and are 10-5 SU (11-4 ATS) since his return. All well and good, but Thomas himself is playing very average basketball (14.98 PER) and has found himself reduced to a reserve role behind rookie Taj Gibson (13.44 PER).
It wasn’t that long ago that both Thomas and Joakim Noah were in coach Vinny Del Negro’s doghouse. But Noah (17.66 PER) has improved with each of his three seasons in the league, while Thomas has stayed much the same. This is a problem.
Worse, Noah was a surprise scratch from Saturday’s win over the Houston Rockets because of the dreaded plantar fasciitis. Veteran Brad Miller (12.41 PER) started at center and gave the Bulls 25 points in 26 minutes, but Miller can’t be expected to sustain that level, especially at age 33. This is a thin roster with no room for injuries, and injuries are inevitable.
Follow: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks (18-24 SU, 24-18 ATS) are two games behind Chicago for a playoff spot, but there’s every reason to believe they can close the gap. Again, starting with point differential, Milwaukee is being outscored by 0.6 points per game. If you sort the teams in the East by point differential, the Bucks would be in seventh place. This stat is a better predictor of future performance than a team’s SU record; it’s a staple of sharp handicapping across all the big sports.
Milwaukee can do even better. Shooting guard Michael Redd only managed to play 18 games this season before blowing out his left knee for the second year in a row. However, the Bucks are 12-12 SU and destroying the betting odds at 17-7 ATS without their former star attraction.
Redd’s production was already on the decline last year at age 29, when he posted a 17.97 PER – still useful for the Bucks, who fell apart after Redd was lost for the season. But this year, the hobbled Redd was dragging Milwaukee down with a 12.16 PER (15 being the indexed league average). This team plays better with either defensive specialist Charlie Bell or Euro gunner Carlos Delfino at the 2-spot:
Delfino -1.8 Roland Rating
Bell -2.2
Redd -5.6
Coach Scott Skiles, who was run out of Chicago despite leading the Bulls into the playoffs in the mid-‘00s, has done a masterful job of getting the most out of his rotation. And he’s got one more piece to play with: veteran Jerry Stackhouse, who has signed with Milwaukee for the rest of the season.
Stackhouse is 35 and hasn’t played much basketball the past couple of years, but his first three games with the Bucks were promising enough – the Bucks went 2-1 and covered all three. The future looks bright in Brew City
If the NBA playoffs started today the Chicago Bulls would be in and the Milwaukee Bucks would be out. But with the league at its halfway point, we know a lot will change between now and the postseason, including the positions of these two. The Bulls' fall from the No. 8 seed could be a rapid one if Joakim Noah's recent injury keeps him out too long. Meanwhile, the Bucks are going to give veteran Jerry Stackhouse a look.
The Leastern Conference is at it again. The great divide between the two NBA conferences has yet to be bridged; there are four excellent clubs at the top of the Eastern standings, but none of the rest would be in playoff position if the league switched to a simple 1-16 format.
The No. 5 team in the East (the Miami Heat) and the No. 11 team in the West (the New Orleans Hornets) share the same record at 23-20.
But we’re only halfway through the 2009-10 season. The standings will almost certainly change between now and then. Someone will rise up from the depths and take a playoff spot from someone else – and those two teams can both make you some money if you fade and follow accordingly.
Fade: Chicago Bulls
As the No. 8 team in the East, the Bulls (20-22 SU, 19-21-2 ATS) already have the most tenuous hold on a playoff spot. But they’re also just 2.5 games behind the Heat for fifth place. There have to be other reasons to pick Chicago to miss the playoffs. No problem.
Let’s start with point differential: The Bulls are being outscored by 3.0 points per game, more than the 15-28 Philadelphia 76ers (2.6 points) in 12th place. Not a good sign.
In Chicago’s defense, power forward Tyrus Thomas (14.2 points, 10.6 rebounds per 40 minutes) missed over a month with a broken left forearm. The Bulls went 5-17 (6-14-2 ATS) without Thomas and are 10-5 SU (11-4 ATS) since his return. All well and good, but Thomas himself is playing very average basketball (14.98 PER) and has found himself reduced to a reserve role behind rookie Taj Gibson (13.44 PER).
It wasn’t that long ago that both Thomas and Joakim Noah were in coach Vinny Del Negro’s doghouse. But Noah (17.66 PER) has improved with each of his three seasons in the league, while Thomas has stayed much the same. This is a problem.
Worse, Noah was a surprise scratch from Saturday’s win over the Houston Rockets because of the dreaded plantar fasciitis. Veteran Brad Miller (12.41 PER) started at center and gave the Bulls 25 points in 26 minutes, but Miller can’t be expected to sustain that level, especially at age 33. This is a thin roster with no room for injuries, and injuries are inevitable.
Follow: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks (18-24 SU, 24-18 ATS) are two games behind Chicago for a playoff spot, but there’s every reason to believe they can close the gap. Again, starting with point differential, Milwaukee is being outscored by 0.6 points per game. If you sort the teams in the East by point differential, the Bucks would be in seventh place. This stat is a better predictor of future performance than a team’s SU record; it’s a staple of sharp handicapping across all the big sports.
Milwaukee can do even better. Shooting guard Michael Redd only managed to play 18 games this season before blowing out his left knee for the second year in a row. However, the Bucks are 12-12 SU and destroying the betting odds at 17-7 ATS without their former star attraction.
Redd’s production was already on the decline last year at age 29, when he posted a 17.97 PER – still useful for the Bucks, who fell apart after Redd was lost for the season. But this year, the hobbled Redd was dragging Milwaukee down with a 12.16 PER (15 being the indexed league average). This team plays better with either defensive specialist Charlie Bell or Euro gunner Carlos Delfino at the 2-spot:
Delfino -1.8 Roland Rating
Bell -2.2
Redd -5.6
Coach Scott Skiles, who was run out of Chicago despite leading the Bulls into the playoffs in the mid-‘00s, has done a masterful job of getting the most out of his rotation. And he’s got one more piece to play with: veteran Jerry Stackhouse, who has signed with Milwaukee for the rest of the season.
Stackhouse is 35 and hasn’t played much basketball the past couple of years, but his first three games with the Bucks were promising enough – the Bucks went 2-1 and covered all three. The future looks bright in Brew City
