NBA trade rumors and their betting impact
Take 'em with a grain of salt. In fact, take some of the trade rumors that will inevitably float around in the NBA with an entire shaker. The trade deadline is about a month away (Feb. 18), and the rumor mill is only now starting to churn. Houston has reportedly been shopping Tracy McGrady while the Cleveland Cavaliers are supposedly casting their eyes towards Washington's Antawn Jamison.
The NBA as we know it will cease to exist at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on February 18. That’s the league’s trade deadline for 2010; some teams will look radically different by then, while others will make relatively minor tweaks to their roster.
We’ve seen some blockbuster deals over the last couple of years, many well in advance of the deadline. And, as always, the NBA rumor mill is churning with speculation about which players will be on the move.
As a handicapper, it’s very important to avoid putting too much stock into trade rumors. Most of the deals that get floated in the press do not actually occur. But the mere existence of these rumors does say something about the teams and players involved. If you see a juicy trade rumor hitting the newswire, think about the possible motivation behind the story:
1. An “inside source” with knowledge of an actual deal in the works has leaked that information to the press. A source could be someone in the front office, a trainer, or even a janitor. This is how the big stories get broken before the official announcements are made.
2. A team or a player agent has planted the rumor deliberately. If a team is considering trading a popular player, it may use the rumor as a trial balloon to see how fans react to a potential deal. Sometimes, an agent who wants his client traded (usually to a higher-profile market) will stir the pot, hoping that the rumor becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
3. A reporter is engaging in speculation. More people are likely to read a story that suggests a trade is in the works. The reporter may still quote an “inside source,” but the information given is much less substantial than in the first example. Rumors being what they are, this kind of sports “journalism” is both common and easy to get away with.
No matter which of these categories you’re dealing with, a rumor will have at least some effect on the betting marketplace. There are squares out there who will believe just about anything that’s in print. The more substantial the rumor, the more likely it will spark some action. As with anything you read in the press, consider the source very carefully. The best writers on the leading websites have more credibility than someone posting anonymously on a message board.
To actually make some money off these rumors, consider the circumstances in which NBA teams find themselves as we approach the deadline. There will be buyers and sellers, as well as teams who choose to stand pat.
You could easily pick out the 13-26 Washington Wizards and the 13-26 Philadelphia 76ers as sellers; they are broken teams with talented and expensive players. They often perform better after shedding their star talent, especially against the spread. The Sixers went 5-18 SU and 12-11 ATS in 2006-07 before trading Allen Iverson to the Denver Nuggets, then 30-29 SU and 31-25-3 ATS after.
I recommend taking a longer-term strategy for dealing with buyers in the NBA. While they’re prone to being overvalued once they get their reinforcements, they’re also championship contenders for the most part.
Expectations are already pretty high to win on a single-game basis. Turn your attention instead to the futures market. As the teams go about their wheeling and dealing, the championship betting odds for the top four or five clubs will shorten and cluster together, while “middle shots” taper off and long shots get even longer.
If you feel confident, for example, in the rumor that the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to trade for Washington power forward Antawn Jamison (still a dependable 20-10 man at age 33), you’ll want to buy the Cavs now at 7-2 odds to win the NBA title. That’s a bargain compared to, say, 3-1 after the trade. And I’ve never met a sharp who didn’t like a bargain
Take 'em with a grain of salt. In fact, take some of the trade rumors that will inevitably float around in the NBA with an entire shaker. The trade deadline is about a month away (Feb. 18), and the rumor mill is only now starting to churn. Houston has reportedly been shopping Tracy McGrady while the Cleveland Cavaliers are supposedly casting their eyes towards Washington's Antawn Jamison.
The NBA as we know it will cease to exist at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on February 18. That’s the league’s trade deadline for 2010; some teams will look radically different by then, while others will make relatively minor tweaks to their roster.
We’ve seen some blockbuster deals over the last couple of years, many well in advance of the deadline. And, as always, the NBA rumor mill is churning with speculation about which players will be on the move.
As a handicapper, it’s very important to avoid putting too much stock into trade rumors. Most of the deals that get floated in the press do not actually occur. But the mere existence of these rumors does say something about the teams and players involved. If you see a juicy trade rumor hitting the newswire, think about the possible motivation behind the story:
1. An “inside source” with knowledge of an actual deal in the works has leaked that information to the press. A source could be someone in the front office, a trainer, or even a janitor. This is how the big stories get broken before the official announcements are made.
2. A team or a player agent has planted the rumor deliberately. If a team is considering trading a popular player, it may use the rumor as a trial balloon to see how fans react to a potential deal. Sometimes, an agent who wants his client traded (usually to a higher-profile market) will stir the pot, hoping that the rumor becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
3. A reporter is engaging in speculation. More people are likely to read a story that suggests a trade is in the works. The reporter may still quote an “inside source,” but the information given is much less substantial than in the first example. Rumors being what they are, this kind of sports “journalism” is both common and easy to get away with.
No matter which of these categories you’re dealing with, a rumor will have at least some effect on the betting marketplace. There are squares out there who will believe just about anything that’s in print. The more substantial the rumor, the more likely it will spark some action. As with anything you read in the press, consider the source very carefully. The best writers on the leading websites have more credibility than someone posting anonymously on a message board.
To actually make some money off these rumors, consider the circumstances in which NBA teams find themselves as we approach the deadline. There will be buyers and sellers, as well as teams who choose to stand pat.
You could easily pick out the 13-26 Washington Wizards and the 13-26 Philadelphia 76ers as sellers; they are broken teams with talented and expensive players. They often perform better after shedding their star talent, especially against the spread. The Sixers went 5-18 SU and 12-11 ATS in 2006-07 before trading Allen Iverson to the Denver Nuggets, then 30-29 SU and 31-25-3 ATS after.
I recommend taking a longer-term strategy for dealing with buyers in the NBA. While they’re prone to being overvalued once they get their reinforcements, they’re also championship contenders for the most part.
Expectations are already pretty high to win on a single-game basis. Turn your attention instead to the futures market. As the teams go about their wheeling and dealing, the championship betting odds for the top four or five clubs will shorten and cluster together, while “middle shots” taper off and long shots get even longer.
If you feel confident, for example, in the rumor that the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to trade for Washington power forward Antawn Jamison (still a dependable 20-10 man at age 33), you’ll want to buy the Cavs now at 7-2 odds to win the NBA title. That’s a bargain compared to, say, 3-1 after the trade. And I’ve never met a sharp who didn’t like a bargain