Ohio State's Greg Oden and Texas' Kevin Durant will go 1-2 to Portland and Seattle in Thursday night's NBA draft. But who goes #3 to Atlanta? Oden's Buckeye teammate Mike Conley? Florida's Al Horford? Maybe China's Yi Jianlian? And how many times will ESPN's Andy Katz utter 'franchise player' during the televised event?
In the Pacific Northwest, they’re partying like it’s 1974.
Handicapping the 2007 NBA Draft
Well, the mood among basketball fans in Seattle is more like the Donner Party. But the SuperSonics and the Portland Trail Blazers are on the verge of drafting two of the most promising college players ever to come down the pike: center Greg Oden and forward Kevin Durant. Both men should have an immediate impact on the NBA. Winning the championship? That could take a few years.
The last time Portland and Seattle graced the top of the draft order was 33 years ago. The Trail Blazers, coming off their fourth consecutive season in the Pacific Division basement at 27-55, had an easy decision in drafting center Bill Walton first overall out of UCLA. Three years later, they were NBA champions. As for the 36-46 Sonics, they selected center Tommy Burleson third overall from North Carolina State. That season, Seattle reached the playoffs for the first time in franchise history and went on to win the title in 1979.
If only they had lived happily ever after. Since their meteoric rise to the top of the league, Portland and Seattle have only enjoyed fleeting successes. Walton and Burleson both had their careers cut short by major injuries, but at least Walton was able to win two NBA rings, the second with the Boston Celtics in 1985-86. Although Burleson’s Wolfpack upset Walton’s Bruins and won the 1974 NCAA championship, Burleson never got to play for the NBA title, having been traded to the Kansas City Kings after three years in Seattle.
Fans in Portland are hoping for more sustainable results this time around. The Blazers finally appear pointed in the right direction after a front-office shakeup and some promising performances during a 32-50 season (41-41 against the spread), 11 wins better than their previous campaign. Oden is projected to be their pick at No. 1 overall and would combine with LaMarcus Aldridge (and Zach Randolph, provided he stays in Portland) to anchor one of the best young frontlines in the league. Handicappers who are looking for value in a turnaround team will have their eyes fixed squarely on the Blazers this summer.
Seattle’s immediate future isn’t nearly as bright. The Sonics were sold in October to a group led by Oklahoma City billionaire Clay Bennett. He’s expected to move the franchise to Oklahoma City after a lame-duck season in Seattle. The front office has been gutted, Rashard Lewis has opted for free agency, and even if he stays, Durant’s style of play is similar enough to Lewis’ that the Sonics won’t see much in the way of immediate results unless they sign and trade Lewis for something more than cap space.
With Oden and Durant virtual locks in the top two spots, the real fun for draftniks begins at No. 3. That’s also where the futures market steps in with some interesting wagers. Forward Al Horford is priced at -500 to be the third pick in the draft. The Atlanta Hawks appear to have already made up their minds that Horford will be their selection -- if they keep it. They are rumored to be looking at trading down in the draft, but that’s easier said than done given their own front-office turmoil.
Things get even more interesting at No. 4. The Memphis Grizzlies, also in the midst of an organizational shuffle with Jerry West stepping down, are on the board and are apparently praying that Horford falls into their laps. The two-time NCAA champion with the Gators is pegged at +450 to be taken here.
More likely is Oden’s ex-teammate at Ohio State, point guard Mike Conley at +150. He’s the highest-ranked pivot in the draft, and while the Grizzlies already have Kyle Lowry, it’s hard to imagine Memphis not taking such a talented player. A trade is a real possibility here, but the conditions of the wager deal only with draft position, not which team is involved.
Going down the draft list, Yi Jianlian is the favorite at No. 5 (+150), Brandan Wright at No. 6 (+185), Spencer Hawes at No. 7 (+250), Joakim Noah at No. 8 (+140) and, once again, Yi at No. 9 (+200). There is plenty of room for speculation in this market. The Celtics have the No. 5 pick and are rumored to be involved in trade talks for a four-way deal involving Kevin Garnett going to the Los Angeles Lakers. The tealeaves suggest that trade will fizzle and Boston will keep the pick, taking the 7-foot Yi to fill their immediate need in the paint.
The 2007 NBA Draft takes place Thursday night at 7:00 p.m. (ET) in Madison Square Garden, with ESPN televising the proceedings.
In the Pacific Northwest, they’re partying like it’s 1974.
Handicapping the 2007 NBA Draft
Well, the mood among basketball fans in Seattle is more like the Donner Party. But the SuperSonics and the Portland Trail Blazers are on the verge of drafting two of the most promising college players ever to come down the pike: center Greg Oden and forward Kevin Durant. Both men should have an immediate impact on the NBA. Winning the championship? That could take a few years.
The last time Portland and Seattle graced the top of the draft order was 33 years ago. The Trail Blazers, coming off their fourth consecutive season in the Pacific Division basement at 27-55, had an easy decision in drafting center Bill Walton first overall out of UCLA. Three years later, they were NBA champions. As for the 36-46 Sonics, they selected center Tommy Burleson third overall from North Carolina State. That season, Seattle reached the playoffs for the first time in franchise history and went on to win the title in 1979.
If only they had lived happily ever after. Since their meteoric rise to the top of the league, Portland and Seattle have only enjoyed fleeting successes. Walton and Burleson both had their careers cut short by major injuries, but at least Walton was able to win two NBA rings, the second with the Boston Celtics in 1985-86. Although Burleson’s Wolfpack upset Walton’s Bruins and won the 1974 NCAA championship, Burleson never got to play for the NBA title, having been traded to the Kansas City Kings after three years in Seattle.
Fans in Portland are hoping for more sustainable results this time around. The Blazers finally appear pointed in the right direction after a front-office shakeup and some promising performances during a 32-50 season (41-41 against the spread), 11 wins better than their previous campaign. Oden is projected to be their pick at No. 1 overall and would combine with LaMarcus Aldridge (and Zach Randolph, provided he stays in Portland) to anchor one of the best young frontlines in the league. Handicappers who are looking for value in a turnaround team will have their eyes fixed squarely on the Blazers this summer.
Seattle’s immediate future isn’t nearly as bright. The Sonics were sold in October to a group led by Oklahoma City billionaire Clay Bennett. He’s expected to move the franchise to Oklahoma City after a lame-duck season in Seattle. The front office has been gutted, Rashard Lewis has opted for free agency, and even if he stays, Durant’s style of play is similar enough to Lewis’ that the Sonics won’t see much in the way of immediate results unless they sign and trade Lewis for something more than cap space.
With Oden and Durant virtual locks in the top two spots, the real fun for draftniks begins at No. 3. That’s also where the futures market steps in with some interesting wagers. Forward Al Horford is priced at -500 to be the third pick in the draft. The Atlanta Hawks appear to have already made up their minds that Horford will be their selection -- if they keep it. They are rumored to be looking at trading down in the draft, but that’s easier said than done given their own front-office turmoil.
Things get even more interesting at No. 4. The Memphis Grizzlies, also in the midst of an organizational shuffle with Jerry West stepping down, are on the board and are apparently praying that Horford falls into their laps. The two-time NCAA champion with the Gators is pegged at +450 to be taken here.
More likely is Oden’s ex-teammate at Ohio State, point guard Mike Conley at +150. He’s the highest-ranked pivot in the draft, and while the Grizzlies already have Kyle Lowry, it’s hard to imagine Memphis not taking such a talented player. A trade is a real possibility here, but the conditions of the wager deal only with draft position, not which team is involved.
Going down the draft list, Yi Jianlian is the favorite at No. 5 (+150), Brandan Wright at No. 6 (+185), Spencer Hawes at No. 7 (+250), Joakim Noah at No. 8 (+140) and, once again, Yi at No. 9 (+200). There is plenty of room for speculation in this market. The Celtics have the No. 5 pick and are rumored to be involved in trade talks for a four-way deal involving Kevin Garnett going to the Los Angeles Lakers. The tealeaves suggest that trade will fizzle and Boston will keep the pick, taking the 7-foot Yi to fill their immediate need in the paint.
The 2007 NBA Draft takes place Thursday night at 7:00 p.m. (ET) in Madison Square Garden, with ESPN televising the proceedings.