Kobe and Lakers get early start on title defense
The NBA joins the perfect storm of North American professional sports tonight with the tip-off of its 2009-10 season. LeBron James and the Cavaliers get the first look when they host the Boston Celtics at Cleveland's Quicken Loans Arena. Opening Night concludes out west in the Staples Center in an All-Los Angeles battle as Kobe Bryant and the champion Lakers take on the Blake Griffin-less Clippers.
Here we are again at the nexus of professional sports in America. Thanks to the prolongation of the baseball season into November, we are in that rare and wonderful place where all four of the big leagues intersect. The NBA joins the party on Tuesday. Eight teams will make their season debuts, followed by the rest of the league on Wednesday.
Parity comes and goes in cycles. These days, there’s a significant gap between the NBA’s haves and have-nots. Last year’s top team, both on the court and at the pay window, was the Cleveland Cavaliers at 66-16 SU and 50-32 ATS. The Orlando Magic have excelled two years in a row:
2007-08: 52-30 SU, 50-29-3 ATS
2008-09: 59-23 SU, 49-32-1 ATS
There’s still room for value handicappers to follow up-and-coming teams in the midst of a turnaround, such as last year’s New York Knicks (32-50 SU, 47-34-1 ATS) and Oklahoma City Thunder (23-59 SU, 46-34-1 ATS). But for sheer earning potential, the best choices in this hypercompetitive market are those teams who, like Orlando and Cleveland did in 2008, are making the push from very good to great.
Could the Magic be that team for the third year in a row? Basketball fans are fixated on the Los Angeles Lakers after they beat Orlando to win yet another NBA title; the betting odds have L.A. as a 5-2 favorite (up from 3-1 at the open) to defend the championship, while the Magic have slipped from 5-1 to 8-1 despite having an outstanding offseason. The Cavaliers (3-1, down from 9-2) and the Boston Celtics (9-2, up from 6-1) are both drawing shorter odds than Orlando. That leaves enough upward mobility for yet another profitable run by the Magic.
Let’s take a moment to remember what Orlando GM Otis Smith accomplished this summer. Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson were acquired from the New Jersey Nets in a salary dump that only cost Orlando three secondary players: Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee. Carter (19.3 Player Efficiency Rating last year, or PER) is a considerable upgrade over Hedo Turkoglu (14.8 PER), a useful player who went to the Toronto Raptors in a complicated sign-and-trade. Brandon Bass (16.4 PER) was signed away from the Dallas Mavericks, and promising back-up center Marcin Gortat (15.6 PER) was retained after Orlando matched the Mavs’ offer sheet.
There is one catch when it comes to Wednesday’s opener against the Philadelphia 76ers (7:00 p.m. ET). Rashard Lewis was suspended for the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated level of testosterone. But the Magic still have an outstanding rotation to put on the floor, anchored by Dwight Howard (25.4 PER) in the middle, and they’re already drawing early action as 8.5-point favorites against Philadelphia.
For those about to fade, the best teams to target are those with unreasonably high expectations who simply don’t have the horses to compete with the elite. Check out this list of the bottom six ATS clubs from last year:
Phoenix Suns: 46-36 SU, 35-44-2 ATS
New Orleans Hornets: 49-33 SU, 35-45-2 ATS
Toronto Raptors: 33-49 SU, 33-47-2 ATS
Detroit Pistons: 39-43 SU, 34-48 ATS
Washington Wizards: 19-63 SU, 31-49-2 ATS
Los Angeles Clippers: 19-63 SU, 32-50 ATS
These teams were sunk by a combination of injuries, poor chemistry and Father Time. The toughest of the three to overcome is age. The older the players, the more likely they are to break down, which can completely mess up a team’s chemistry – think Peja Stojakovic for the Hornets last year. The Boston Celtics (62-20 SU, 43-39 ATS last year) could be this year’s prime fade candidates, especially as the season wears on and the rigors of the NBA take their toll on Kevin Garnett (age 33), Paul Pierce (32), Ray Allen (34) and newcomer Rasheed Wallace (35).
Boston will be tested right off the bat by the Cavaliers (-4.5) in Tuesday’s season opener, starting 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT. And while the Celtics wisely added to their depth this year with Wallace and Marquis Daniels, they’ll have to do without Glen “Big Baby” Davis, who is out indefinitely after hurting his thumb in what the Boston Globe is calling an altercation with a friend and ex-teammate from the LSU Tigers. So much for ubuntu.
The NBA joins the perfect storm of North American professional sports tonight with the tip-off of its 2009-10 season. LeBron James and the Cavaliers get the first look when they host the Boston Celtics at Cleveland's Quicken Loans Arena. Opening Night concludes out west in the Staples Center in an All-Los Angeles battle as Kobe Bryant and the champion Lakers take on the Blake Griffin-less Clippers.
Here we are again at the nexus of professional sports in America. Thanks to the prolongation of the baseball season into November, we are in that rare and wonderful place where all four of the big leagues intersect. The NBA joins the party on Tuesday. Eight teams will make their season debuts, followed by the rest of the league on Wednesday.
Parity comes and goes in cycles. These days, there’s a significant gap between the NBA’s haves and have-nots. Last year’s top team, both on the court and at the pay window, was the Cleveland Cavaliers at 66-16 SU and 50-32 ATS. The Orlando Magic have excelled two years in a row:
2007-08: 52-30 SU, 50-29-3 ATS
2008-09: 59-23 SU, 49-32-1 ATS
There’s still room for value handicappers to follow up-and-coming teams in the midst of a turnaround, such as last year’s New York Knicks (32-50 SU, 47-34-1 ATS) and Oklahoma City Thunder (23-59 SU, 46-34-1 ATS). But for sheer earning potential, the best choices in this hypercompetitive market are those teams who, like Orlando and Cleveland did in 2008, are making the push from very good to great.
Could the Magic be that team for the third year in a row? Basketball fans are fixated on the Los Angeles Lakers after they beat Orlando to win yet another NBA title; the betting odds have L.A. as a 5-2 favorite (up from 3-1 at the open) to defend the championship, while the Magic have slipped from 5-1 to 8-1 despite having an outstanding offseason. The Cavaliers (3-1, down from 9-2) and the Boston Celtics (9-2, up from 6-1) are both drawing shorter odds than Orlando. That leaves enough upward mobility for yet another profitable run by the Magic.
Let’s take a moment to remember what Orlando GM Otis Smith accomplished this summer. Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson were acquired from the New Jersey Nets in a salary dump that only cost Orlando three secondary players: Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee. Carter (19.3 Player Efficiency Rating last year, or PER) is a considerable upgrade over Hedo Turkoglu (14.8 PER), a useful player who went to the Toronto Raptors in a complicated sign-and-trade. Brandon Bass (16.4 PER) was signed away from the Dallas Mavericks, and promising back-up center Marcin Gortat (15.6 PER) was retained after Orlando matched the Mavs’ offer sheet.
There is one catch when it comes to Wednesday’s opener against the Philadelphia 76ers (7:00 p.m. ET). Rashard Lewis was suspended for the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated level of testosterone. But the Magic still have an outstanding rotation to put on the floor, anchored by Dwight Howard (25.4 PER) in the middle, and they’re already drawing early action as 8.5-point favorites against Philadelphia.
For those about to fade, the best teams to target are those with unreasonably high expectations who simply don’t have the horses to compete with the elite. Check out this list of the bottom six ATS clubs from last year:
Phoenix Suns: 46-36 SU, 35-44-2 ATS
New Orleans Hornets: 49-33 SU, 35-45-2 ATS
Toronto Raptors: 33-49 SU, 33-47-2 ATS
Detroit Pistons: 39-43 SU, 34-48 ATS
Washington Wizards: 19-63 SU, 31-49-2 ATS
Los Angeles Clippers: 19-63 SU, 32-50 ATS
These teams were sunk by a combination of injuries, poor chemistry and Father Time. The toughest of the three to overcome is age. The older the players, the more likely they are to break down, which can completely mess up a team’s chemistry – think Peja Stojakovic for the Hornets last year. The Boston Celtics (62-20 SU, 43-39 ATS last year) could be this year’s prime fade candidates, especially as the season wears on and the rigors of the NBA take their toll on Kevin Garnett (age 33), Paul Pierce (32), Ray Allen (34) and newcomer Rasheed Wallace (35).
Boston will be tested right off the bat by the Cavaliers (-4.5) in Tuesday’s season opener, starting 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT. And while the Celtics wisely added to their depth this year with Wallace and Marquis Daniels, they’ll have to do without Glen “Big Baby” Davis, who is out indefinitely after hurting his thumb in what the Boston Globe is calling an altercation with a friend and ex-teammate from the LSU Tigers. So much for ubuntu.