First the headlines, then in the following post the complete listing of plays.
=======================================
FULL YTD
Moneyline (risking 1 unit on each play)
129 wins, 217 losses
+38.79 units
Against the Spread (risking 1.05 to make 1.00 unit)
186 wins, 155 losses, 5 pushes (.545)
+23.25 units
COMMENT: Very pleased that the simple baseline continues to work over such a wide number of plays. Still, almost halfway through the season, blindly making the ML bet and the ATS bet whenever the Pinny ML appears as if it will close above the strike price has created both action on the majority of games and a meaningful profit.
=================================
MONTH BY MONTH
(note: Dec 28-31 I was away, and without closing Pinny MLs those games can't be tracked accurately)
ML PLAYS
OCT 1-0, +3.15u
NOV 60-91 +22.89u
DEC (1st-27th) 57-104, +11.66u
JAN (1st-6th) 11-22, +1.09u
ATS PLAYS
OCT 1-0, +1.00u
NOV 84-67 (.556), +13.65u
DEC (1st-27th) 82-76 (.519) +2.20u
JAN (1st-6th) 19-12 (.613) +6.40u
COMMENT: The very fast start in November made me wonder if, once the linemakers adjusted, the value of the plays would go away. This hasn't happened. The winning has continued, although not at the same pace.
I am actually optimistic that the end of football season will bring more casual action on the NBA, which may create more value. I remember being astounded last year at how well the top Wagerline consensus plays did against the line in the first half of the NBA season. In January though, that turned on a dime.
=============================
GAP BETWEEN EDGAR ML AND CLOSING PINNY ML
COMMENT: This time I've blindly grouped these in 3% intervals, without trying to find patterns. But the results still show the same thing as they have all year -- when the Edgar Line is most extremely far off from the closing Pinny ML, it is not as effective. This is particularly true with the moneyline.
MONEYLINE PLAYS
%OFF--W--L--NET units
5-7% 35-39 +20.80
8-10% 36-46 +23.73
11-13% 16-38 -2.46
14-16% 17-31 -0.56
17-19% 10-18 +3.36
20-23% 7-17 -2.63
23-26% 4-15 -1.10
27-30% 3-8 -0.50
33+% 1-5 -1.85
ATS PLAYS
%OFF--W--L--NET units
5-7% 44-30 +12.50
8-10% 50-32 +16.40
11-13% 28-26 +0.70
14-16% 28-18 +9.10
17-19% 14-13 +0.35
20-23% 9-15 -6.75
23-26% 5-12 -7.60
27-30% 5-6 -1.30
33+% 3-3 -0.15
In sum:
5-10% off -- spectacularly strong both ATS and ML
11-19% off -- strong ATS (55%), mediocre ML
20%+ off -- consistenly below par
========================
MOST FREQUENT PLAY-ON TEAMS
COMMENT This chart is really revealing to me. Important truth: it is very strong human nature not to want to play the ugly-ass teams. But that's where the profit is. I'm not saying it's the only way, but it is definintely a way that works
Look at the teams at the bottom of the list, and tell me that's not 85% of the national TV schedule. TV = public teams = inflated lines = no Edgar ML method plays.
Of course, DAL, PHX, and SA deserve their reputation, as we keep finding out when I have to go against them. But there's no good reason that the Denver Nuggets should be priced out of regular Edgar Line play. But they have a highly marketed player, and they pretty much suck, so there you go.
#PLAYS--TEAM--ML$--ATS$
26 POR 1997 140
25 NY 1184 40
23 ATL 466 -160
23 CHA 58 -670
21 MEM -1064 50
21 PHI -1051 -255
21 TOR 507 870
20 NOK 254 155
17 BOS -19 60
17 SEA -980 60
14 MIN 584 785
13 MIL -39 70
10 GS 165 180
10 MIA -305 285
10 NJ -95 385
9 IND -473 -225
9 SAC -190 -330
8 HOU -81 -225
7 LAC -500 -530
7 UTH 1010 495
7 WAS 968 290
6 DEN -185 -15
6 LAX 701 295
6 ORL 444 190
4 DET 255 195
3 CHI -300 -110
2 DAL 418 200
1 CLE 150 100
0 PHX
0 SA
There are some gems in the middle of this list, too -- and as you'd expect, they are the decidedly non-public, non-TV teams like UTH, WAS, MIN. The Utah Jazz are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS when they qualify.
There's also one profitable Public-Team-That-The-Public-Is-Tired-Of. And that's the LA Lakers, the Indianapolis Colts of the NBA.
=======================================
FULL YTD
Moneyline (risking 1 unit on each play)
129 wins, 217 losses
+38.79 units
Against the Spread (risking 1.05 to make 1.00 unit)
186 wins, 155 losses, 5 pushes (.545)
+23.25 units
COMMENT: Very pleased that the simple baseline continues to work over such a wide number of plays. Still, almost halfway through the season, blindly making the ML bet and the ATS bet whenever the Pinny ML appears as if it will close above the strike price has created both action on the majority of games and a meaningful profit.
=================================
MONTH BY MONTH
(note: Dec 28-31 I was away, and without closing Pinny MLs those games can't be tracked accurately)
ML PLAYS
OCT 1-0, +3.15u
NOV 60-91 +22.89u
DEC (1st-27th) 57-104, +11.66u
JAN (1st-6th) 11-22, +1.09u
ATS PLAYS
OCT 1-0, +1.00u
NOV 84-67 (.556), +13.65u
DEC (1st-27th) 82-76 (.519) +2.20u
JAN (1st-6th) 19-12 (.613) +6.40u
COMMENT: The very fast start in November made me wonder if, once the linemakers adjusted, the value of the plays would go away. This hasn't happened. The winning has continued, although not at the same pace.
I am actually optimistic that the end of football season will bring more casual action on the NBA, which may create more value. I remember being astounded last year at how well the top Wagerline consensus plays did against the line in the first half of the NBA season. In January though, that turned on a dime.
=============================
GAP BETWEEN EDGAR ML AND CLOSING PINNY ML
COMMENT: This time I've blindly grouped these in 3% intervals, without trying to find patterns. But the results still show the same thing as they have all year -- when the Edgar Line is most extremely far off from the closing Pinny ML, it is not as effective. This is particularly true with the moneyline.
MONEYLINE PLAYS
%OFF--W--L--NET units
5-7% 35-39 +20.80
8-10% 36-46 +23.73
11-13% 16-38 -2.46
14-16% 17-31 -0.56
17-19% 10-18 +3.36
20-23% 7-17 -2.63
23-26% 4-15 -1.10
27-30% 3-8 -0.50
33+% 1-5 -1.85
ATS PLAYS
%OFF--W--L--NET units
5-7% 44-30 +12.50
8-10% 50-32 +16.40
11-13% 28-26 +0.70
14-16% 28-18 +9.10
17-19% 14-13 +0.35
20-23% 9-15 -6.75
23-26% 5-12 -7.60
27-30% 5-6 -1.30
33+% 3-3 -0.15
In sum:
5-10% off -- spectacularly strong both ATS and ML
11-19% off -- strong ATS (55%), mediocre ML
20%+ off -- consistenly below par
========================
MOST FREQUENT PLAY-ON TEAMS
COMMENT This chart is really revealing to me. Important truth: it is very strong human nature not to want to play the ugly-ass teams. But that's where the profit is. I'm not saying it's the only way, but it is definintely a way that works
Look at the teams at the bottom of the list, and tell me that's not 85% of the national TV schedule. TV = public teams = inflated lines = no Edgar ML method plays.
Of course, DAL, PHX, and SA deserve their reputation, as we keep finding out when I have to go against them. But there's no good reason that the Denver Nuggets should be priced out of regular Edgar Line play. But they have a highly marketed player, and they pretty much suck, so there you go.
#PLAYS--TEAM--ML$--ATS$
26 POR 1997 140
25 NY 1184 40
23 ATL 466 -160
23 CHA 58 -670
21 MEM -1064 50
21 PHI -1051 -255
21 TOR 507 870
20 NOK 254 155
17 BOS -19 60
17 SEA -980 60
14 MIN 584 785
13 MIL -39 70
10 GS 165 180
10 MIA -305 285
10 NJ -95 385
9 IND -473 -225
9 SAC -190 -330
8 HOU -81 -225
7 LAC -500 -530
7 UTH 1010 495
7 WAS 968 290
6 DEN -185 -15
6 LAX 701 295
6 ORL 444 190
4 DET 255 195
3 CHI -300 -110
2 DAL 418 200
1 CLE 150 100
0 PHX
0 SA
There are some gems in the middle of this list, too -- and as you'd expect, they are the decidedly non-public, non-TV teams like UTH, WAS, MIN. The Utah Jazz are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS when they qualify.
There's also one profitable Public-Team-That-The-Public-Is-Tired-Of. And that's the LA Lakers, the Indianapolis Colts of the NBA.
