Hey guys, going to post my playoff wagers in the NBA portion of the forums. Had some success in last year's playoffs (Jazz as the dogs vs Clippers was a particularly profitable series), and I feel very good about my upcoming locked in plays. Here goes nothing. Things we want to focus on: combating recency/small sample bias (especially prevalent early in playoffs), trying to find unsustainable trends in previous games in order project value in future ones, getting the best historical price for a certain line, generally fading public betting teams, showing discipline to no bet in certain spots (often times, the best bet against a spread is no bet at all).
So far I have only made 2 bets on playoff games, both on underdogs (Pellies in Game 1 and Jazz in Game 1), and split those. Only issue was that I bumped up my betting size for the Jazz wager, so I am essentially even so far. I tend to lean towards betting on underdogs, and very rarely will bet the spread on a team that is giving a significant amount of points.
And here are my bets so far for the next 2 days.
I shared my thoughts on my Blazers bet (one I feel very good about) in Twizzle's thread. This bet checks a lot of boxes in terms of the "noise" and biases I try to combat when gambling on any sport. According to thespread.com, 67% of the market has been on the Pellies in Game 3, which is expected for a team coming off two road wins. Line opened at -3 and has since moved to 3 1/2, and even 4 in some places. I will be a little bothered if the book I use (5Dimes) makes +4 available, but I see enough value in the +3 1/2 that I am not going to fret too much.
Some of my general thoughts copied from Twizzle's thread:
"Line up to +3 1/2 on 5Dimes, so I am very happy to take the Blazers here. Blazers made some necessary adjustments to their minutes distribution last game (Harkless returning from injury at 27 mins played is HUGE for the Blazers strategically and because it displaces some of Turner's bad minutes, more Collins, less Nurkic/Turner, more Connaughton for spacing purposes). Blazers were victim to another poor shooting night for Lillard 1-7 in 3PA, and some unsustainable shooting for Pelicans (50% from 3 on 24 attempts). Lillard always has that potential for a blowup game, even with Holliday playing elite defense. Still, I don't necessarily think Lillard has to drop 40 for the Blazers to win this game outright.'
...and in response to some posters' concerns about AD being too dominant in this series:
"Keep hearing about how Davis is "unstoppable" in this matchup. In Game 2, the switch of Aminu to guard AD and cutting the minutes of Nurkic seemed to be effective (Anthony Davis only had 22 points on 50% shooting versus the 35 he dropped in Game 1). Anthony Davis is still one of the most statistically inconsistent superstars in the league (see David Locke's research) and always has the potential to pickup an injury or just generally play mediocre (by his standards). Additionally, his impact in clutch situations late in games is limited relative to other superstars since he doesn't bring the ball up (like Harden, Lebron, etc.) and therefore, needs other players to set him up to score rather than the other way around (see AD's clutch-time usage versus the other superstars). Point is, AD can still get "his" within reason and the Blazers can still win. The big question is will the streaky outside shooters in Rondo, Mirotic, Darius Miller continue to make those necessary outside shots at a high rate, and will Dame and CJ continue to struggle. At + 3 1/2, I am willing to gamble on the Blazers bouncing back and combating some of the recency bias floating around. PS, I don't trust Gentry either".
So far I have only made 2 bets on playoff games, both on underdogs (Pellies in Game 1 and Jazz in Game 1), and split those. Only issue was that I bumped up my betting size for the Jazz wager, so I am essentially even so far. I tend to lean towards betting on underdogs, and very rarely will bet the spread on a team that is giving a significant amount of points.
And here are my bets so far for the next 2 days.
I shared my thoughts on my Blazers bet (one I feel very good about) in Twizzle's thread. This bet checks a lot of boxes in terms of the "noise" and biases I try to combat when gambling on any sport. According to thespread.com, 67% of the market has been on the Pellies in Game 3, which is expected for a team coming off two road wins. Line opened at -3 and has since moved to 3 1/2, and even 4 in some places. I will be a little bothered if the book I use (5Dimes) makes +4 available, but I see enough value in the +3 1/2 that I am not going to fret too much.
Some of my general thoughts copied from Twizzle's thread:
"Line up to +3 1/2 on 5Dimes, so I am very happy to take the Blazers here. Blazers made some necessary adjustments to their minutes distribution last game (Harkless returning from injury at 27 mins played is HUGE for the Blazers strategically and because it displaces some of Turner's bad minutes, more Collins, less Nurkic/Turner, more Connaughton for spacing purposes). Blazers were victim to another poor shooting night for Lillard 1-7 in 3PA, and some unsustainable shooting for Pelicans (50% from 3 on 24 attempts). Lillard always has that potential for a blowup game, even with Holliday playing elite defense. Still, I don't necessarily think Lillard has to drop 40 for the Blazers to win this game outright.'
...and in response to some posters' concerns about AD being too dominant in this series:
"Keep hearing about how Davis is "unstoppable" in this matchup. In Game 2, the switch of Aminu to guard AD and cutting the minutes of Nurkic seemed to be effective (Anthony Davis only had 22 points on 50% shooting versus the 35 he dropped in Game 1). Anthony Davis is still one of the most statistically inconsistent superstars in the league (see David Locke's research) and always has the potential to pickup an injury or just generally play mediocre (by his standards). Additionally, his impact in clutch situations late in games is limited relative to other superstars since he doesn't bring the ball up (like Harden, Lebron, etc.) and therefore, needs other players to set him up to score rather than the other way around (see AD's clutch-time usage versus the other superstars). Point is, AD can still get "his" within reason and the Blazers can still win. The big question is will the streaky outside shooters in Rondo, Mirotic, Darius Miller continue to make those necessary outside shots at a high rate, and will Dame and CJ continue to struggle. At + 3 1/2, I am willing to gamble on the Blazers bouncing back and combating some of the recency bias floating around. PS, I don't trust Gentry either".