Kobe, Lakers go for 3-1 lead over Nuggets
Kobe, Lakers go for 3-1 lead over Nuggets
No. 13 proved unlucky for the Nuggets and their backers. After beating the number in their 12 previous contests this postseason, Denver lost straight up as 3½-point favorites on Saturday to Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, 103-97. Now Carmelo Anthony and Company look to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole as 4½-point chalk Monday night. ESPN has the tip for Game 4 with coverage starting at 9:00 PM from the Pepsi Center.
The Denver Nuggets have been a gold mine during the NBA playoffs. But on Saturday, their supporters finally got the shaft.
The Los Angeles Lakers were down eight points heading into the fourth quarter of Game 3 in this already-epic Western Conference Finals. Then, just like Game 1, the Lakers chipped away, took the lead, and kept the lead when Trevor Ariza made the decisive last-minute steal on an inbounds play. Final score: Lakers 103, Nuggets 97. Denver dropped the cash as a 3.5-point home favorite to fall to 12-1 ATS in the postseason.
The Nuggets have moved to 4.5-point faves for Monday’s Game 4 (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. Eastern) at the Pepsi Center. The betting odds opened at -4, and yet Los Angeles is still drawing the majority of the action at 60 percent on the pointspread and nearly 85 percent on the moneyline at +170. That looks and cooks like a “trap” game, as the books try to take advantage of a Laker-happy betting public.
Los Angeles is 7-8 ATS in the playoffs after going 43-39 ATS (52.4 percent) during the regular season – the slimmest profit possible factoring in the chalk. Denver went 44-37-1 ATS (54.3 percent) to grab the second seed in the West behind the Lakers. But let’s cut the betting public a little slack today: Market reports at press time had the under receiving nearly 55 percent support on a total of 209.5 points. Each of L.A.’s last seven contests has gone under, even as the total in this series has dropped with each game:
Game 1: 214
Game 2: 212
Game 3: 211.5
Game 4: 209.5
The under is 9-1 in the last 10 games between the Lakers and Nuggets. In this series, a combination of excellent defense by both teams and some shooting lapses by Denver has kept the money pouring in. Aside from the Ariza steal and another brilliant night by Kobe Bryant (41 points, six rebounds, five assists, two steals), the Game 3 storyline from Denver’s perspective was Carmelo Anthony’s second half: three points, all on foul shots. Nuggets coach George Karl credited the Lakers for sending more double-teams Anthony’s way.
The betting trends point almost universally toward another under in Game 4. As for the Lakers, although they’re 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against Denver, that’s a red herring with the Nuggets only becoming a true contender once Chauncey Billups joined the team at point guard. Here are just a few of the useful trends the Nugs are riding into Monday’s matchup:
- 20-6 ATS overall
- 22-6 ATS versus winning teams
- 21-5 ATS versus the Western Conference
- 13-3 ATS after allowing 100 points the previous game
Billups is having issues of his own in this series at 16-of-43 (37.2 percent) from the floor and 6-of-18 from behind the arc. Bryant definitely deserves some credit here for his defensive work at the perimeter. But the larger issue for the Denver backcourt is at shooting guard, where J.R. Smith has fallen off a cliff since straining his calf in the opener. Smith is 7-of-28 in this series and 5-of-19 (26.3 percent) from long distance after hitting 40 percent of his trey attempts during the regular season. With defensive specialist Dahntay Jones playing the first seven minutes or so of each half as a designated Kobe-stopper, the Nuggets are relying too heavily on their impressive and deep frontline to put points on the board.
And what a frontline it is. Andrew Bynum continues to be a non-factor for the Lakers due to his conditioning after missing February and March with a knee injury, giving centers Nene (13-of-23, 56.5 percent) and Chris Andersen (9-of-15, 60 percent) a lot less resistance on their way to the basket. They’ve carried Denver to the bank during these playoffs; an extra 3-pointer or two is all the Nuggets need Monday to secure lucky payday No. 13.
No. 13 proved unlucky for the Nuggets and their backers. After beating the number in their 12 previous contests this postseason, Denver lost straight up as 3½-point favorites on Saturday to Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, 103-97. Now Carmelo Anthony and Company look to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole as 4½-point chalk Monday night. ESPN has the tip for Game 4 with coverage starting at 9:00 PM from the Pepsi Center.
The Denver Nuggets have been a gold mine during the NBA playoffs. But on Saturday, their supporters finally got the shaft.
The Los Angeles Lakers were down eight points heading into the fourth quarter of Game 3 in this already-epic Western Conference Finals. Then, just like Game 1, the Lakers chipped away, took the lead, and kept the lead when Trevor Ariza made the decisive last-minute steal on an inbounds play. Final score: Lakers 103, Nuggets 97. Denver dropped the cash as a 3.5-point home favorite to fall to 12-1 ATS in the postseason.
The Nuggets have moved to 4.5-point faves for Monday’s Game 4 (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. Eastern) at the Pepsi Center. The betting odds opened at -4, and yet Los Angeles is still drawing the majority of the action at 60 percent on the pointspread and nearly 85 percent on the moneyline at +170. That looks and cooks like a “trap” game, as the books try to take advantage of a Laker-happy betting public.
Los Angeles is 7-8 ATS in the playoffs after going 43-39 ATS (52.4 percent) during the regular season – the slimmest profit possible factoring in the chalk. Denver went 44-37-1 ATS (54.3 percent) to grab the second seed in the West behind the Lakers. But let’s cut the betting public a little slack today: Market reports at press time had the under receiving nearly 55 percent support on a total of 209.5 points. Each of L.A.’s last seven contests has gone under, even as the total in this series has dropped with each game:
Game 1: 214
Game 2: 212
Game 3: 211.5
Game 4: 209.5
The under is 9-1 in the last 10 games between the Lakers and Nuggets. In this series, a combination of excellent defense by both teams and some shooting lapses by Denver has kept the money pouring in. Aside from the Ariza steal and another brilliant night by Kobe Bryant (41 points, six rebounds, five assists, two steals), the Game 3 storyline from Denver’s perspective was Carmelo Anthony’s second half: three points, all on foul shots. Nuggets coach George Karl credited the Lakers for sending more double-teams Anthony’s way.
The betting trends point almost universally toward another under in Game 4. As for the Lakers, although they’re 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against Denver, that’s a red herring with the Nuggets only becoming a true contender once Chauncey Billups joined the team at point guard. Here are just a few of the useful trends the Nugs are riding into Monday’s matchup:
- 20-6 ATS overall
- 22-6 ATS versus winning teams
- 21-5 ATS versus the Western Conference
- 13-3 ATS after allowing 100 points the previous game
Billups is having issues of his own in this series at 16-of-43 (37.2 percent) from the floor and 6-of-18 from behind the arc. Bryant definitely deserves some credit here for his defensive work at the perimeter. But the larger issue for the Denver backcourt is at shooting guard, where J.R. Smith has fallen off a cliff since straining his calf in the opener. Smith is 7-of-28 in this series and 5-of-19 (26.3 percent) from long distance after hitting 40 percent of his trey attempts during the regular season. With defensive specialist Dahntay Jones playing the first seven minutes or so of each half as a designated Kobe-stopper, the Nuggets are relying too heavily on their impressive and deep frontline to put points on the board.
And what a frontline it is. Andrew Bynum continues to be a non-factor for the Lakers due to his conditioning after missing February and March with a knee injury, giving centers Nene (13-of-23, 56.5 percent) and Chris Andersen (9-of-15, 60 percent) a lot less resistance on their way to the basket. They’ve carried Denver to the bank during these playoffs; an extra 3-pointer or two is all the Nuggets need Monday to secure lucky payday No. 13.