Denver Nuggets out to steal on from Kobe & Lakers
Denver Nuggets out to steal on from Kobe & Lakers
The LA Lakers have legions of fans across the globe, but for bettors there's no team better right now than the Denver Nuggets. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers rallied for a close win in Game 1, but Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets cashed tickets for their backers to bring them to 11-0 ATS this postseason. Game 2 takes place Thursday night at LA's Staples Center with ESPN broadcasting at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
It’s time for America to fall in love again.
The Denver Nuggets have won over the hearts and minds of basketball fans. After five straight years of losing in the first round of the NBA playoffs, the Nuggets are playing the underdog role in the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. But this dog had its day during Tuesday’s series opener, holding the lead for most of the contest before the Lakers (-6½) snuck away with a 105-103 victory. Denver supporters are now 11-0 ATS in these playoffs and upbeat about their chances of making it a 12-pack when the Nuggets face the Lakers in Game 2 on Thursday night (9:00 p.m. Eastern, ESPN).
The betting odds have shifted following Denver’s performance in Game 1, but the Lakers remain 5½-point favorites (some books had Lakers -5 at press time) with a total of 210.5. Linesmakers will be pleased to see that the betting reports have the public evenly split on the pointspread; the Nuggets were drawing nearly 75 percent of the action on the moneyline at +200.
In this correspondent’s humble opinion, Denver’s near miss in the opener should embolden people to go for the larger payday – although many sharps will find even the moneyline a bit too exotic for their blood, and they’ll remind me that the Nuggets only paid off against the spread in the opener. Fair enough. But at +200, Denver would only have to win more than a third of the time in this situation to be profitable.
The Nuggets were definitely the better team for more than just a third of Game 1. And the throng of reporters outside their dressing room discovered a team sending “the right messages” after their defeat, talking about taking it one game at a time and so on. If you’re a Denver supporter, that’s what you want to hear.
For those who prefer the Lakers, there’s coach Phil Jackson’s frank admission: “I think they outplayed us and we won the game.”
There were a couple of apparently minor injuries to the Nuggets in the opener. J.R. Smith suffered a sprained right knee at the very end of the game, but has proclaimed himself fit for Game 2. Kenyon Martin is also expected to play despite breaking his left ring finger. Denver obviously cannot afford to lose either man in such a tight series, especially Smith at the shooting guard position, where Kobe Bryant already poses a serious enough threat as it is.
If Denver covering the spread in Game 1 was part of the script, then so was the under cashing in on the total of 214 points. The under is now 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the Lakers and Nuggets. There are more than enough under trends for Thursday’s matchup to justify sticking with what’s been working. Here are just a few:
The total for Game 2 has dropped 3½ points, and the betting public is hungry as usual for the Over with nearly 70 percent of the action looking for a high score. Denver will probably manage a little better from the foul line after shooting just 23-of-35 (65.7 percent) in the opener, well below the team average of 76.0 percent. For the Lakers, Andrew Bynum was in foul trouble and only scored six points in 16 minutes, but at this point it’s hard to predict what Bynum will deliver from one night to the next. What we do know is there were 109 points scored in the first half on Tuesday and 99 in the second as both teams made effective adjustments on defense. The stuff that worked will be used again on Thursday.
The LA Lakers have legions of fans across the globe, but for bettors there's no team better right now than the Denver Nuggets. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers rallied for a close win in Game 1, but Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets cashed tickets for their backers to bring them to 11-0 ATS this postseason. Game 2 takes place Thursday night at LA's Staples Center with ESPN broadcasting at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
It’s time for America to fall in love again.
The Denver Nuggets have won over the hearts and minds of basketball fans. After five straight years of losing in the first round of the NBA playoffs, the Nuggets are playing the underdog role in the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. But this dog had its day during Tuesday’s series opener, holding the lead for most of the contest before the Lakers (-6½) snuck away with a 105-103 victory. Denver supporters are now 11-0 ATS in these playoffs and upbeat about their chances of making it a 12-pack when the Nuggets face the Lakers in Game 2 on Thursday night (9:00 p.m. Eastern, ESPN).
The betting odds have shifted following Denver’s performance in Game 1, but the Lakers remain 5½-point favorites (some books had Lakers -5 at press time) with a total of 210.5. Linesmakers will be pleased to see that the betting reports have the public evenly split on the pointspread; the Nuggets were drawing nearly 75 percent of the action on the moneyline at +200.
In this correspondent’s humble opinion, Denver’s near miss in the opener should embolden people to go for the larger payday – although many sharps will find even the moneyline a bit too exotic for their blood, and they’ll remind me that the Nuggets only paid off against the spread in the opener. Fair enough. But at +200, Denver would only have to win more than a third of the time in this situation to be profitable.
The Nuggets were definitely the better team for more than just a third of Game 1. And the throng of reporters outside their dressing room discovered a team sending “the right messages” after their defeat, talking about taking it one game at a time and so on. If you’re a Denver supporter, that’s what you want to hear.
For those who prefer the Lakers, there’s coach Phil Jackson’s frank admission: “I think they outplayed us and we won the game.”
There were a couple of apparently minor injuries to the Nuggets in the opener. J.R. Smith suffered a sprained right knee at the very end of the game, but has proclaimed himself fit for Game 2. Kenyon Martin is also expected to play despite breaking his left ring finger. Denver obviously cannot afford to lose either man in such a tight series, especially Smith at the shooting guard position, where Kobe Bryant already poses a serious enough threat as it is.
If Denver covering the spread in Game 1 was part of the script, then so was the under cashing in on the total of 214 points. The under is now 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the Lakers and Nuggets. There are more than enough under trends for Thursday’s matchup to justify sticking with what’s been working. Here are just a few:
- 25-9 in L.A.’s last 34 as a favorite
- 6-1 in L.A.’s last seven against winning teams
- 12-4 in Denver’s last 16 as an underdog
- 7-1 in Denver’s last eight against winning teams
- 10-4 in the last 14 Nuggets-Lakers games in Los Angeles
The total for Game 2 has dropped 3½ points, and the betting public is hungry as usual for the Over with nearly 70 percent of the action looking for a high score. Denver will probably manage a little better from the foul line after shooting just 23-of-35 (65.7 percent) in the opener, well below the team average of 76.0 percent. For the Lakers, Andrew Bynum was in foul trouble and only scored six points in 16 minutes, but at this point it’s hard to predict what Bynum will deliver from one night to the next. What we do know is there were 109 points scored in the first half on Tuesday and 99 in the second as both teams made effective adjustments on defense. The stuff that worked will be used again on Thursday.