Hawks favored to go up 3-2 on Miami Heat
Hawks favored to go up 3-2 on Miami Heat
Talk about an even-steven series. The Hawks and Heat enter Game 5 of their playoff set knotted at two games apiece, each 2-2 ATS and having split the games so far on their home courts. The only stat to lean one direction or another so far is in the totals column where the Under has cashed three games to one. Philips Arena in Atlanta will be the site with TNT's telecast tipping at 8:00 Eastern.
We know how good Dwyane Wade is. What about the other 23 guys?
Handicapping the NBA playoffs isn’t always this challenging. Every April, the general public comes rushing to the pay window, and every April, sharp bettors prosper. But that advantage virtually disappears when the No. 4 seed faces No. 5 in the first round. The Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets were 2-2 ATS in the Western Conference; we find the same even-steven situation in the East between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat.
All four of these clubs consider themselves rising forces in the NBA after undergoing successful roster upgrades. The Hawks and Heat of 2009 bear little resemblance to what we’re used to; Atlanta’s actually a winning team for the first time in a decade at 47-35 (43-38-1 ATS), while Miami is back in the playoffs at 43-39 (40-40-2 ATS), one year after finishing last in the NBA with 15 wins. In market terms, that’s some serious volatility.
This is usually good news for handicappers. A volatile team is by definition up and down – the zigzag betting philosophy feeds off this. But that practice works best when the opposing team in question performs at a consistent level. When two volatile teams like the Hawks and Heat collide, betting becomes less a technical exercise and more a study in the clash of basketball styles between the two.
Again, we’re familiar with the body of work Dwyane Wade has given us this year now that he’s healthy again: MVP quality with a 30.4 PER on 28.2 points, 7.0 assists and a whole lot more per 36 minutes. He’s easily the best player on the court in this series and any other game not involving LeBron James. His supporting cast is the issue here.
Center Jermaine O’Neal was good for 15.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes during the regular season after coming over from the Toronto Raptors in February, but O’Neal has accumulated so much wear and tear in his knees and ankles that you don’t know what you’re going to get from one game to the next. Rookies Mario Chalmers (13.3 PER) and Michael Beasley (17.2 PER) are also prone to having good and bad days as they learn the NBA game. There isn’t a lot of talent on the Miami roster after those four players – a huge red flag for bettors during a short playoff series.
The Hawks have their issues as a young and developing team, and it can’t be ignored that Josh Childress (17.8 PER) is plying his trade in Europe after helping the Hawks extend the eventual champion Boston Celtics to seven games (at 3-4 ATS) in last year’s first-round classic. This year’s team has benefited from a full season with veteran Mike Bibby (16.3 PER) at the point. However, two things have kept Atlanta from putting a stranglehold on this series. Marvin Williams (16.0 PER) missed two games with a sprained wrist, and Miami has wisely concentrated its defense on Joe Johnson, who is down from 21.4 points per game during the regular season to 13.8 points in this series.
This is where things appear to swing in Atlanta’s favor for Game 5. Williams is day-to-day and could be ready to suit up on Wednesday; at the other end, Wade is playing with back spasms, and Jamario Moon (11.6 PER, but with quality hustle defense) is out for the rest of the season with what has been diagnosed as a sports hernia. Even with James Jones stepping up at small forward in Moon’s absence with 19 points (and a plus-5) in Game 4, Wade was limited to 22 points on 9-of-26 shooting, and the Miami bench was outscored 25-2 in an 81-71 defeat as 5-point home faves.
We’ve seen Wade carry the Heat on his sore back before. He could very well do it again Wednesday night (8:00 p.m. Eastern, TNT), but a lot of other things have to go right for Miami to cover the 5½-point spread, let alone grab the W in the Dirty South. The betting odds also feature a total of 180 points with the Under at 3-1 thus far.
Talk about an even-steven series. The Hawks and Heat enter Game 5 of their playoff set knotted at two games apiece, each 2-2 ATS and having split the games so far on their home courts. The only stat to lean one direction or another so far is in the totals column where the Under has cashed three games to one. Philips Arena in Atlanta will be the site with TNT's telecast tipping at 8:00 Eastern.
We know how good Dwyane Wade is. What about the other 23 guys?
Handicapping the NBA playoffs isn’t always this challenging. Every April, the general public comes rushing to the pay window, and every April, sharp bettors prosper. But that advantage virtually disappears when the No. 4 seed faces No. 5 in the first round. The Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets were 2-2 ATS in the Western Conference; we find the same even-steven situation in the East between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat.
All four of these clubs consider themselves rising forces in the NBA after undergoing successful roster upgrades. The Hawks and Heat of 2009 bear little resemblance to what we’re used to; Atlanta’s actually a winning team for the first time in a decade at 47-35 (43-38-1 ATS), while Miami is back in the playoffs at 43-39 (40-40-2 ATS), one year after finishing last in the NBA with 15 wins. In market terms, that’s some serious volatility.
This is usually good news for handicappers. A volatile team is by definition up and down – the zigzag betting philosophy feeds off this. But that practice works best when the opposing team in question performs at a consistent level. When two volatile teams like the Hawks and Heat collide, betting becomes less a technical exercise and more a study in the clash of basketball styles between the two.
Again, we’re familiar with the body of work Dwyane Wade has given us this year now that he’s healthy again: MVP quality with a 30.4 PER on 28.2 points, 7.0 assists and a whole lot more per 36 minutes. He’s easily the best player on the court in this series and any other game not involving LeBron James. His supporting cast is the issue here.
Center Jermaine O’Neal was good for 15.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes during the regular season after coming over from the Toronto Raptors in February, but O’Neal has accumulated so much wear and tear in his knees and ankles that you don’t know what you’re going to get from one game to the next. Rookies Mario Chalmers (13.3 PER) and Michael Beasley (17.2 PER) are also prone to having good and bad days as they learn the NBA game. There isn’t a lot of talent on the Miami roster after those four players – a huge red flag for bettors during a short playoff series.
The Hawks have their issues as a young and developing team, and it can’t be ignored that Josh Childress (17.8 PER) is plying his trade in Europe after helping the Hawks extend the eventual champion Boston Celtics to seven games (at 3-4 ATS) in last year’s first-round classic. This year’s team has benefited from a full season with veteran Mike Bibby (16.3 PER) at the point. However, two things have kept Atlanta from putting a stranglehold on this series. Marvin Williams (16.0 PER) missed two games with a sprained wrist, and Miami has wisely concentrated its defense on Joe Johnson, who is down from 21.4 points per game during the regular season to 13.8 points in this series.
This is where things appear to swing in Atlanta’s favor for Game 5. Williams is day-to-day and could be ready to suit up on Wednesday; at the other end, Wade is playing with back spasms, and Jamario Moon (11.6 PER, but with quality hustle defense) is out for the rest of the season with what has been diagnosed as a sports hernia. Even with James Jones stepping up at small forward in Moon’s absence with 19 points (and a plus-5) in Game 4, Wade was limited to 22 points on 9-of-26 shooting, and the Miami bench was outscored 25-2 in an 81-71 defeat as 5-point home faves.
We’ve seen Wade carry the Heat on his sore back before. He could very well do it again Wednesday night (8:00 p.m. Eastern, TNT), but a lot of other things have to go right for Miami to cover the 5½-point spread, let alone grab the W in the Dirty South. The betting odds also feature a total of 180 points with the Under at 3-1 thus far.