2015-2016 Plays and Hoops Discussion

[fitguy67]

not bad for a raw "record" (all plays, hc or ml, counted equally) after 290 non-pushed plays of 124-166 which is *gasp!* WELL less than 50%

yet somehow money-/unit-wise the net result is a nice positive haul of 14.05u or +2.04% of the 687.32u risked...
_____________

magic? no, just patience and the uncommon sense to place the seemingly-stupid hi-payout/lo-probability ML plays when the price is right

this game is about making money/units long-term,
sub-50-hit-rate (and lots of "oh-fer" nights and the mocking posts by dolts they attract) be damned...

it's not about tallying an impressive hit-rate for you and your genius friends in PT to jerk off to (with lots of "winning nights" to hi-five over...while the occasional burials you suffer when your fave-heavy cards flop keep you re-loading your accounts )...sound like anyone you know?

_____________

wise up and watch how it's done and learn...or continue to be obsessed with "winning bets" and being afraid/ashamed to make losing ones...because fear of/shame over/need to "chase"/"get revenge for" losing nights is what locks you into your losing pattern and keeps you wanting to taunt long-term winners on their losing nights

best time to start tailing a long-term winning capper is after a painful slump starts showing signs of being pulled out of
...but you gotta grow up and learn to take losses in your stride to do so...and stop being annoying twats, ready to rub salt in someone's wounds on bad-news days (while quietly sulking/waiting out their good days until something bad allows you to return and sickly "celebrate")
_________

congrats t-wiz on getting back in the black...but always remember the words of harrison ford to luke skywalker "great kid...now don't get cocky"...stick with the smart plays and the smart bet-sizes

[t-wizzle]

Fitguy with great words of wisdom.

[mikefan1034]

Mikefag check in pal.

Really not impressed at all u have no money on the games and plus it's all air anyway. Even if u did have money ur not actually up ur still -400 units lifetime so u will always be a lifetime loser in my eyes. U are the biggest clown on this site next to flip laker and seaweed

[fitguy67]

bump to the new page...

before someone else (who probably should be MUCH more concerned with their own dental hygiene than someone else's sports-betting) asks for a fukkin' "update" that they can't comprehend anyhow...

but while I have your attention, in answer to what you REALLY want to know: no, that's neither normal nor healthy AND they shouldn't be that color (except around Christmas maybe for decorative purposes)...google "toothbrush and floss, introduction to" and godbless

nice +9.85u night

		#	play	prc	wt	grd	units	+4.20
feb	19	287	IND+8.5	-110	3.5	W	3.50
		288	IND	330	0.5	W	1.65
		289	POR+9	-110	3.0	W	3.00
		290	POR	340	0.5	W	1.70	+14.05

[t-wizzle]

Fitguy just buried mikefag.

[t-wizzle]

Wizards third game in 3 nights down in Miami tonight but they seem to be playing well lately, even going back to before the all star break.

[Seto]

Wizards third game in 3 nights down in Miami tonight but they seem to be playing well lately, even going back to before the all star break.

Kinda like em too. Their main players are fairly young and should be able to handle it fine. Miami played yesterday too at least.

FWIW I think they said on the Wizards broadcast that the last team to play 3 in 3 nights because of a reschedules game swept all 3.

[lakerboy]

Miami game isn't worth playing. No value either way. I lean wizards.

[fitguy67]

Fitguy just buried mikefag.

an all-purpose no-names-mentioned "if the shoe fits" kind of post

the hope is that regular accurate logging of plays will act like a light shone on a kitchen floor, serving to scatter and repel the cockroaches...making'em think twice before aiming mean-spirited drivel at an internet handle (and, truth be told, it's well known that the cranky twats themselves' feeble attempt to distract from the shittiness of their own lives)
________
good luck on your next batch of smart plays with sensible betsizes...which is far easier for any thread-runner to work on without annoying visits by the sufferers of LOWP's Syndrome (Losers Obsessed with Winning-Percentages)
______

happy to kick in a little timely knowledge (about bankroll growth, dental hygiene, how sunshine on the skin makes vitamin D, etc.) when and as appropriate...all in the interest of a productive thread

[t-wizzle]

Miami game isn't worth playing. No value either way. I lean wizards.

Agreed.

[t-wizzle]

Clippers +4 -110 (3x); ML +160 (1x)

[fitguy67]

nice backdoor cover for net +2u

		#	play	price	wt	grd	units	+14.05
feb	20	291	LAC+4	-110	3.0	W	+3.00
		292	LAC	160	1.0	L	-1.00	+16.05

[Bones33]

grats on being in the black on paper. As fitguy says it's all about the profit. I just hope that you really are betting 5x,8x units a game and not just airbetting to turn an imaginary profit on an online board.

[t-wizzle]

Thunder -3 -110 (4x)
Thunder 1H -1.5 -110 (2x)
Thunder -7.5 +185 (1x)

[t-wizzle]

grats on being in the black on paper. As fitguy says it's all about the profit. I just hope that you really are betting 5x,8x units a game and not just airbetting to turn an imaginary profit on an online board.

Why would you think that? It's really not believable to you that I'd have 100-200 bucks on these games? That's what the majority of these bets are.

[fitguy67]

^my hope is that with less inflammation from the dolts that goad the OP into betsize-escalation during the downturns (it's natural to scratch harder to reduce an "itch"...hoping that if you hit, you buy your thread some peace temporarily from the attacks...but if the cold-spell continues, the number attached to the minus sign of even a moderate downswing magnifies ridiculously...attracting yet more tormenting and the perceived "need" for an even harder scratch=bigger betsizes)...not long until some hugely negative (and hugely-misleading) unit-albatross is hung around the neck of the capper who's only mistake was to pay attention to the goading

er, where was I...yeah, with less attention to the thread's diaper-rash, betsize sanity is far easier to maintain

spreadsheet says that of the 292 (non-pushed) plays completed...
the average weight is 2.2
and the largest "hammers" have been at unit-sizes of 15, 8,7, & 6 each applied only once
so 98.6% (288 of the 292) of the plays have been 5u or less

sorry, dolts...but betsize-wise, nothing worth even a single

conclusion: this thread has not yet been turned into the circus that the idiots want to turn it into
let's keep it that way...i'll post every now and again the avg-betsize (and anything less than 4u-or-so indicates a safe sustainable "driving speed", while still affording the option to hammer when an edge is perceived)

[t-wizzle]

Bad call on OKC. Fukkin team just plays some awful games some nights.

[t-wizzle]

Raptors -8 -110 (2x)

[t-wizzle]

Pacers ML -125 (1x)

[Aye J Mac]

Hopefully u went live CAVS on everything

[t-wizzle]

Hopefully u went live CAVS on everything

Haha nah. Stupid bet though. I should've known better.

[t-wizzle]

Jazz +3 -110 (4x); ML +130 (2x)

[t-wizzle]

Jazz 1H ML +120 (2x)

[t-wizzle]

Blazers have scored so many garbage buckets. Utah has gotten hacked and hasn't gotten a single call since the technical foul.

[fitguy67]

give-back of the last 2-days' gains...down 11.10u from +16.05u to +4.95

NBA...where "amazing" (mostly uneventful "garbage time" crap that just coincidentally takes the final score thru key numbers of importance to books/bettors) happens

		#	play	price	wt.	grd.	units	+16.05
feb	21	293	OKL-3.5	-110	4.0	L	-4.40
		294	OKL,H1-1.5	-110	2.0	L	-2.20
		295	OKL-7.5	-110	1.0	L	-1.10
		296	TOR-8	-110	2.0	W	+2.00
		297	IND	-125	1.0	W	+1.00
		298	UTA+3	-110	4.0	L	-4.40
		299	UTA	130	2.0	L	-2.00	+4.95

[t-wizzle]

Fitguy don't forget to include Jazz 1H +120.

Really tough loss there. Portland made a lot of ridiculous shots but that's what they do. Utah was consistently defending them deep into the shotclock and the Blazers would chuck one up at the end and hit it. That's what they do though. They make 3s.

[fitguy67]

Fitguy don't forget to include Jazz 1H +120.

feb	21	#	play	price	wt.	grd.	units	+4.95
added		300	UTA,H1	120	2.0	W	+2.00	+6.95

[t-wizzle]

feb	21	#	play	price	wt.	grd.	units	+4.95
added		300	UTA,H1	120	2.0	W	+2.00	+6.95

Should be +2.4 since it was 2 units on ml +120.

[fitguy67]

u'r right: first time i rely on "manual" calculation mode to save time b4 next eod-update & see what happens

"use the spreadsheet, Luke"...O. Kenobi

feb	21	#	play	prc.	wt.	grd.	units	+4.95
added		300	UTA,H1	120	2.0	W	+2.40	+7.35

[t-wizzle]

Pistons +9.5 -110 (3x); ML +375 (0.5x)

[t-wizzle]

Added 1 unit to Pistons spread.

[t-wizzle]

Pacers ML +110 (3x)

[t-wizzle]

Hawks +7 -115 (3.5x); ML +230 (1x)

[t-wizzle]

Hawks 1H +4 -110 (1x); ML +180 (0.5x)

[Seto]

Monta Ellis missing key free throws. May have seen that a few times in the last couple years.

Miami keep pulling wins out of their ass in games they have no business winning. This is like the 10th time that's happened this season and I'm not even sure I'm exaggerating.