2015-16 JM NBA Thread

**TenCount** · 01-28-16, 01:57 AM

I'm thinking it is about time to bury this system for the season. That's well over 80 units lost in less than a month.

**greally311** · 01-28-16, 08:37 AM

Is it profitable at this point in the season? Appears that both are in the red. Although, I have seen these types of systems play out towards the end of the season so I am thinking of holding on.

**cheyou** · 01-28-16, 08:47 AM

1/27 Results
Morrison 1-7-5 System
Dallas V3 [C] LOSS
Phoenix V2 [B] LOSS
Denver V1 [A] WIN

1/28 Plays
#99 Sacramento v3 [B]
#101 Chicago v1 [A]

**LasVegasSystems** · 01-28-16, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by Grivas_Digeni

Are you familiar with gambler's fallacy?

Manage your stacks and you'll be fine. Regression expectation has killed many a bankroll

Yes- I wrote a book about it but that assumes that each outcome is independent of another (50/50). That is not the case when you have a positive expectation (probability of winning). Successive loses in such a context increase the probability of winning with each additional losing outcome. Probability outcomes can be absolutely ascertained.

**bravoman81** · 01-28-16, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by LasVegasSystems

Yes- I wrote a book about it but that assumes that each outcome is independent of another (50/50). That is not the case when you have a positive expectation (probability of winning). Successive loses in such a context increase the probability of winning with each additional losing outcome. Probability outcomes can be absolutely ascertained.

i'm assuming now is the time to reload in this system?

**LasVegasSystems** · 01-28-16, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by bravoman81

i'm assuming now is the time to reload in this system?

In general yes, but I use a variation of it that does make [A] bets- just [B] and [C] flat bets (no progression). So Sacramento is juicy as will be Chicago if they fail to cover versus the Lakers tonight.

**LasVegasSystems** · 01-28-16, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by LasVegasSystems

In general yes, but I use a variation of it that does make [A] bets- just [B] and [C] flat bets (no progression). So Sacramento is juicy as will be Chicago if they fail to cover versus the Lakers tonight.

Should be does not make A bets.

**imotiv8** · 01-28-16, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by TenCount

I'm thinking it is about time to bury this system for the season. That's well over 80 units lost in less than a month.

I think the past couple of years are proving that the best way to play this system is with the points

**bravoman81** · 01-28-16, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by imotiv8

I think the past couple of years are proving that the best way to play this system is with the points

do you mean buying the 3 points?

**imotiv8** · 01-28-16, 01:28 PM

^yes

I'll be interested to see totals if or when things get updated

**greally311** · 01-28-16, 01:28 PM

Files

Does anyone have historical files of the plays and results? I can put together an analysis to see the best return based on certain subsets of the historical data. In the end, it is all data mining, but may lead us to use some needed filters so that we don't see this same volatility throughout a year.

**greally311** · 01-28-16, 02:42 PM

Does anyone have the historical plays (wins and losses) for previous seasons? I am offering to do a bit of analysis on that subset to see if there are any further filters we can apply. Understanding it is data mining at its best, we may be able to find some sort of filters to decrease the volatility throughout the year. Thanks

**TenCount** · 01-28-16, 03:52 PM

We gotta be in negative unit territory no?

**imotiv8** · 01-28-16, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by TenCount

We gotta be in negative unit territory no?

The last 2 C bet losses have covered buying 3 points...so they havnt counted against the traditional system.

**TenCount** · 01-28-16, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by imotiv8

The last 2 C bet losses have covered buying 3 points...so they havnt counted against the traditional system.

O wow yeah I didn't notice that since I have been blinded by the 1-7-5 destruction. There is still a lot of time left in the season to recover in the 1-7-5. Wish I had the time to do some backtests and see if this kind of roller coaster is the norm or if this is completely out of the ordinary....

**greally311** · 01-28-16, 04:48 PM

Does anyone have historical data? Happy to do some digging and analysis.

**Andy3568** · 01-29-16, 09:35 AM

1-7-5 1/28 Results

Sacramento v3 [B] Loss
Chicago v1 [A] Win

1-7-5 1/29 Plays

Phoenix v1 [C]
Orlando v3 [C]
Minnesota v3 [A]

**TenCount** · 01-29-16, 10:14 AM

I actually don't hate the Orlando line tonight at Boston (+8.5 at my book right now). Once again I am not touching Phoenix...

**bravoman81** · 01-29-16, 10:18 AM

wallco's got ORL on a C bet as well on his system but his system goes do a D as the final.

CJ · 01-29-16, 11:07 AM

Wallco's C bets are 2-5 though, and the C bets in the V3 series have been particularly bad for the 1-7-5 system.

I'd use caution if you're taking Orlando tonight. Good luck to all those sticking it out!

**reddevils64** · 01-29-16, 02:53 PM

Anyone liking phoenix tonight ?

**Wallco99** · 01-29-16, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by reddevils64

Anyone liking phoenix tonight ?

Not even their coach.

**TenCount** · 01-29-16, 09:39 PM

I literally couldn't pick games this bad if I tried to. Jesus. I'm done. Good luck the rest of the season boys.

**reddevils64** · 01-29-16, 09:45 PM

Money saved on Phoenix once again, think I'm going to play against them every game now.

**TenCount** · 01-29-16, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by reddevils64

Money saved on Phoenix once again, think I'm going to play against them every game now.

I'm gonna save my money the rest of the way by losing the link to this system... What a joke

**imotiv8** · 01-29-16, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by TenCount

I'm thinking it is about time to bury this system for the season. That's well over 80 units lost in less than a month.

Now it's time...either bury it or fade it

**Andy3568** · 01-30-16, 07:33 AM

1-7-5 1/29 Results

Phoenix v1 [C] Loss
Orlando v3 [C] Loss
Minnesota v3 [A] Loss

1-7-5 1/30 Plays

Sacramento v3 [C]
Golden State v1 [A]
Detroit v3 [A]

**analyzer** · 01-30-16, 09:49 AM

Just this month (January) including the open series with Kings & Timberwolves my count is approximately 150.33 units lost.

**oilcountry99** · 01-30-16, 10:29 AM

Disaster has set in

**MikeyD323** · 01-30-16, 10:33 AM

Wow burn all knowledge dealing with this system

**MikeyD323** · 01-30-16, 10:33 AM

Or keep it going and go the other way woth the picks!!! Up 150 units! Lolol

**TenCount** · 01-30-16, 12:57 PM

I will be starting my own backtest on this 1-7-5 system... I'm really worried that the testing on this was not done correctly...

**imotiv8** · 01-30-16, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by TenCount

I will be starting my own backtest on this 1-7-5 system... I'm really worried that the testing on this was not done correctly...

I believe the testing was done correctly but I sure would like to confirm that. The thing about systems is they usually only last so long. Even in the previous backtest of the 1-7-5 it showed there was potential for disaster some years.

About this same time last year I started fading the system and ended up doing really well....obviously I lowered my units but i guess we'll see

**TenCount** · 01-30-16, 01:36 PM

Wallco's chase 101 system is doing well again this year wish I would have just stuck with that one and not ventured off course!! lol

**Wallco99** · 01-30-16, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by TenCount

I will be starting my own backtest on this 1-7-5 system... I'm really worried that the testing on this was not done correctly...

Wrong!!!!