Leans for Friday 4/3/09 Heat from the Sun as Hawks Fly By With Money

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Friday 4/3/09 Heat from the Sun as Hawks Fly By With Money
    Today I have only a few plays that I want to play today and I will play some of them HEAVY. The others were pretty much Crumbs and Things

    Miami Heat+6.5 HEAVY (2 point buy)
    Miami Heat +170 (projected) Crumbs play

    It's the right play. Charlotte just played the last two participants in last years' final and are playing the Heat with desperation.Throw in the double overtime game with Boston too.

    Phoenix-13 Thing

    They will score 130 with ease against this defense coming in off of an overtime loss to the Warriors. Phoenix needs this game, so I am applying the Kelly factor and taking the long chalk


    Atlanta+6.5 HEAVY (1 point buy)
    Atlanta +220 moneyline (projected) Crumbs play

    Boston played in the double overtime game too if I am not mistaken and was victorious in beating the Charlotte Bobcats. To begin with, they have not made it a habit of beating the Hawks by double digits lately. With no shot blocker stud like KG in the middle the Celtics look ordinary but disciplined. I will have to do the smart play and take the Birds. Somehow I don't see this team laying down for the Celtics. Also taking a shot at the moneyline in this one too.

    So that's what I like. I am not going to bore you with a lot of ats mumbo jumbo. Just going with my capping

    Also

    Added Plays:

    Orlando/Cleveland under 188 Large
    Oklahoma City+5
    Heat+3.5 2nd half

    Houston+5 HEAVY
  • shoebox
    Restricted User
    • 11-26-08
    • 5710

    #2
    I posted those exact plays in yesterdays thread, those lines are gonna move IMO, also booked sa

    Gl brother


    Starting to think more and more like the sense
    Comment
    • cocknocker
      Restricted User
      • 11-06-08
      • 8001

      #3
      And that's what our thread is all about. I actually loved the sight of seeing I think it was Isaiah indicating that from what he has learned on the thread is that these are the plays also. This board is killer. A consistent informative source for information. We're going to head right into the WNBA too so it should be fruitful. WNBA is easier than NBA. These guys should be able to pry the lid right off of the book's headquarters.
      Comment
      • Vincepcion
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 02-07-09
        • 834

        #4
        I am on Charlotte. The Cats have covered the last 3 between the 2, and the home team has won the last 6 meetings by at least 4. Miami is awful on the road, the Cats are very good at home and have been playing good ball, as opposed to Miami who aren't playing well. Buy the hook in this one to -3.5.

        May the luckier team win! BOL to you.
        Comment
        • pho3nix32
          SBR MVP
          • 01-09-09
          • 1465

          #5
          Nice title there CK

          line: sk@phx 242
          pick: 242 over

          The word "defense" is forbidden in the locker rooms of both clubs. The over has been 4-1 for both teams in their last 5 outings. Sacramento has nothing to play for and will be playing without pressure. Phoenix on the otherhand will try go 7-0 in their final 7 games which means they will doing what they do best...run. All-Star caliber scoring tomorrow folks!
          Comment
          • danrman
            SBR MVP
            • 08-30-08
            • 2696

            #6
            love the contrairian logic behind the heat play.. by tomorrow there has to be a ton of money on charlotte after they beat the celts and lakers... there will be alot of teasing action w/ people teasing them down to even thinking all they have to do is win and they wont and thats what makes the moneyline also a great play in the situation on the heat
            Comment
            • danrman
              SBR MVP
              • 08-30-08
              • 2696

              #7
              hey pho3nix the final will be phx 136-sac 113... only thing is phoenix will have the game well in hand and w/ them playing dallas next (the team they are fighting for the last playoff spot) they might let off the gas a little and sac could sneak under the 13 point spread w/ a couple of late 3's
              Comment
              • pho3nix32
                SBR MVP
                • 01-09-09
                • 1465

                #8
                Originally posted by danrman
                hey pho3nix the final will be phx 136-sac 113... only thing is phoenix will have the game well in hand and w/ them playing dallas next (the team they are fighting for the last playoff spot) they might let off the gas a little and sac could sneak under the 13 point spread w/ a couple of late 3's
                hi dan, i like the over better if the game is a rout and played by 2 defenseless teams. makes the over more possible to happen.
                Comment
                • BebeRebozo
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-28-08
                  • 2094

                  #9
                  Miami Heat +4
                  Cleveland Cavaliers +3,5
                  Portland Trail Blazers -5
                  Comment
                  • stakagrp
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 01-05-09
                    • 237

                    #10
                    Originally posted by pho3nix32
                    Nice title there CK

                    line: sk@phx 242
                    pick: 242 over

                    The word "defense" is forbidden in the locker rooms of both clubs. The over has been 4-1 for both teams in their last 5 outings. Sacramento has nothing to play for and will be playing without pressure. Phoenix on the otherhand will try go 7-0 in their final 7 games which means they will doing what they do best...run. All-Star caliber scoring tomorrow folks!
                    I like the over when both of these teams play against each other, but one thing that can stand in the way of it going over is if Phoenix blows Sac out really bad just like what they did to Washington awhile ago. Washington has no defense and likes to run the ball but because they got blown out the game went under. I might ride with the over as well, but will sit and think about it for a while.
                    Comment
                    • jkrap27
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 02-20-09
                      • 75

                      #11
                      Love the Rockets whooping on a struggling Laker team.
                      Take the points and the under

                      Minnesota stunning the Jazz on the road +13
                      Thumbs up

                      Last years playoff rematch gotta love the Celtics here with the spread.

                      And last but not least the Cavs as well.

                      Lock em in.
                      Comment
                      • solobass
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-15-09
                        • 1277

                        #12
                        well well, great news for me this morning. a few days ago i had a post where i said if the cavs beat the pistons i will bet against the cavs ML until it cashes. i was hoping they would lose @ orlando but hells bells what do you know the wiz pulls a decent game out of their A$$. i think +460 is the biggest dog ticket i have ever cashed. also 2-0 plus a parlay in baseball, and cashed the sixers made for one heck of a day yesterday. if it sounds like i am looking back, i am. today is last day of nba for me until the playoffs as you can see the paradigms of the current season quickly being shattered and i am not giving up my profits down the stretch! i will have action on all final 4 games but right now it is all about baseball!
                        Comment
                        • Jimbo42
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-04-09
                          • 2076

                          #13
                          Originally posted by solobass
                          well well, great news for me this morning. a few days ago i had a post where i said if the cavs beat the pistons i will bet against the cavs ML until it cashes. i was hoping they would lose @ orlando but hells bells what do you know the wiz pulls a decent game out of their A$$. i think +460 is the biggest dog ticket i have ever cashed. also 2-0 plus a parlay in baseball, and cashed the sixers made for one heck of a day yesterday. if it sounds like i am looking back, i am. today is last day of nba for me until the playoffs as you can see the paradigms of the current season quickly being shattered and i am not giving up my profits down the stretch! i will have action on all final 4 games but right now it is all about baseball!
                          Nice job Solo... I do remember that...
                          Comment
                          • Jimbo42
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-04-09
                            • 2076

                            #14
                            All right fellas... here's what I'm liking...
                            Oklahoma City +6 (gonna wait to get best line)
                            Phoenix -12
                            and I'm gonna sit back and smoke on (CK style):
                            Minnesota +12.5

                            Haven't booked these yet so will write up when I do..

                            Good Luck guys....
                            Comment
                            • peterpan19
                              Restricted User
                              • 11-02-08
                              • 3377

                              #15
                              ok guys... well Cle D and Utah pretty much ruined my day yesterday.... anyway lets see what we have on the plate today...:

                              Mia +4
                              come on Bobcats... you wont win this one here... first the Lakers and than the Celtics to OT... plus a hot Miami team that came really close to a win in Dallas... I am riding the Wade show again today...

                              Orl -3 (small)
                              I knew right after they lost to Toronto I would play them bc they are something like 13-5 ATS after a loss... but now the Cavs lost too who are even better after a loss... but hell I will go with the home team on a Friday night here... add in that Orl is 4-1 ATS and SU at home vs Cle...

                              Min +12.5
                              I dont know why but I somehow like this team here today... just too many points to give here today...

                              ATL +6.5
                              hell Boston went to OT and ATL just played pretty bad in their last game...ATl might suck on the road, but I think they will show up to play the Cletics here today...

                              but I dont really like too much here today... might have to look at some halftime plays or 1st qtr plays later on...

                              GL
                              Comment
                              • AzNDooM
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-29-08
                                • 1611

                                #16
                                I have to agree w/ CK inregards to the Miami game. I think Miami should cover easily as Dwayne Wade has been playing HOT of late. In addition, i think the over at 183 should be taken a good look as the last 3 games have gone over this TOTAL (assuming the spreads was 183) and last game score was 98 94. Just think Dwayne can carry and will have a good game.

                                As inregards to Atlanta, I am going to tax CK's pick and hope that his HEAVY bets trend continue from last week as hes been 3-0. I think this will be tight on the cover, but like the CK write up and was convinced its the right choice hence will follow his lead and pray that it comes through. ^^

                                Will have to disagree w/ Phoenix32 pick this week, Just cant see the points being covered for 242. Thats just alot of points and I think Sacremento just wont have enough just to help cover the points.
                                Although I agree w/ his write up, just cant justify the TOTAL.

                                on personal Looks, im liking Portland -5.0 and LA Lakers at 5.5 to get back on track. What you guys reckon?

                                Awaiting for Dexter to post his thoughts and picks before making final decisions.
                                Comment
                                • Jimbo42
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-04-09
                                  • 2076

                                  #17
                                  Hey CK, I was away from the comp for much of the day yeaterday and missed an important comment that you made:

                                  Congratulations are in order for you and Styles! May want to add a baseball crumbs account for your third bundle of joy's college education...You could have that badboy paid in full before the little one is born...LOL
                                  Comment
                                  • Jimbo42
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-04-09
                                    • 2076

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by AzNDooM
                                    I have to agree w/ CK inregards to the Miami game. I think Miami should cover easily as Dwayne Wade has been playing HOT of late. In addition, i think the over at 183 should be taken a good look as the last 3 games have gone over this TOTAL (assuming the spreads was 183) and last game score was 98 94. Just think Dwayne can carry and will have a good game.

                                    As inregards to Atlanta, I am going to tax CK's pick and hope that his HEAVY bets trend continue from last week as hes been 3-0. I think this will be tight on the cover, but like the CK write up and was convinced its the right choice hence will follow his lead and pray that it comes through. ^^

                                    Will have to disagree w/ Phoenix32 pick this week, Just cant see the points being covered for 242. Thats just alot of points and I think Sacremento just wont have enough just to help cover the points.
                                    Although I agree w/ his write up, just cant justify the TOTAL.

                                    on personal Looks, im liking Portland -5.0 and LA Lakers at 5.5 to get back on track. What you guys reckon?

                                    Awaiting for Dexter to post his thoughts and picks before making final decisions.
                                    Hey bro, Dex many times posts his plays the night before... Check post #195 of yesterday's thread...
                                    Comment
                                    • Jimbo42
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-04-09
                                      • 2076

                                      #19
                                      Hmmmm.... I just went and checked Dex's plays for today and he and I are on the same side in all of my plays...that is actually unusual that he and I capped the same games besides the fact that we have the same side....hmmmm not sure what to make of that.. Two good minds that think alike?? LOL....Yea right... Nice play on Denver last night by the way Dex!
                                      Comment
                                      • peterpan19
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-02-08
                                        • 3377

                                        #20
                                        ok guys fun parlay of the day risking 10 to win 942.95
                                        Mia +4
                                        SA -4
                                        ATL +6
                                        OKC+5.5
                                        ORL -3.5
                                        Min +12.5
                                        Hou +5.5

                                        GL
                                        Comment
                                        • repski
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-01-09
                                          • 1929

                                          #21
                                          Indiana +4

                                          -The Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite
                                          -Indiana is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record.
                                          Comment
                                          • SportsTerminator
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-18-09
                                            • 5179

                                            #22
                                            Miami beating the tough Charlotte IN CHARLOTTE???...

                                            Hawks beating Boston IN BOSTON???...

                                            The same Phoenix who lost by about 10 to the Sacremento Kings last time they played???...

                                            Struggling Indiana beating the Spurs? The same Indiana who couldn't beat Dallas? The Spurs play better on the road lately. This is the same Spurs that beat Atlanta in Atlanta without Duncan.
                                            Bet To Win
                                            Comment
                                            • cocknocker
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 11-06-08
                                              • 8001

                                              #23
                                              Yes. BTW I agree with your assessment of the Thunder handing it to the Blazers. The Blazers are a bad road team. Anyway go to your thread for that game and see how i made POSITIVE comments there, and then try to observe the same set of rules when you come here. And if you disagree with the pick give us your reasons why, Sports Terminator. Your post was totally unnecessary and should be outlawed. This is the Mafia page. Underhanded criticism of others work is not tolerated
                                              Comment
                                              • cs11787
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-26-08
                                                • 1088

                                                #24
                                                Atl looks like a great play. Big rlm. Lines already -4.5! I dont think I wanna buy 1.5 to take it to 6 so I may just play it at +4.5
                                                Comment
                                                • shoebox
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 11-26-08
                                                  • 5710

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by repski
                                                  Indiana +4

                                                  -The Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite
                                                  -Indiana is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record.
                                                  took the spurs here rep. SA fightin for position in the playoffs, so this play is going against trends. Total situaltional play for me


                                                  GL 1 of us will cash
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cocknocker
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 8001

                                                    #26
                                                    The Spurs will decimate the Pacers. The Pacers are a sub 500 team that just won their last game at the buzzer. Auto fade is in order. Spurs is the play
                                                    Comment
                                                    • repski
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-01-09
                                                      • 1929

                                                      #27
                                                      Sac +13

                                                      In the Kings' last three games, they upset the Suns at home, lost to the Hornets by one point at home on a 3-point shot at the buzzer and lost by two in overtime to Golden State on the road

                                                      The Kings are often underpriced, especially when playing in division where they have covered 10 of the past 12 times.

                                                      The Suns are off a huge win against the Rockets. They play at Dallas on Sunday making this a big look-ahead
                                                      game.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • peterpan19
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-02-08
                                                        • 3377

                                                        #28
                                                        booked plays:
                                                        Mia +4.5 (big)
                                                        ATL +4.5 (big)
                                                        SA -4 (small)
                                                        Min +14
                                                        Orl -3.5 (small)

                                                        GL
                                                        Comment
                                                        • RoagBettor
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 01-20-09
                                                          • 8355

                                                          #29
                                                          rep, Suns are also making a push for the playoffs and need to win out. I don't see a letdown, not at this point in the season.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • repski
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-01-09
                                                            • 1929

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by RoagBettor
                                                            rep, Suns are also making a push for the playoffs and need to win out. I don't see a letdown, not at this point in the season.
                                                            not picking Sac to win.....I just don't see PHX winning by 13...Sac has been playing well as of late...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • schaapattack
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 12-23-08
                                                              • 1007

                                                              #31
                                                              Comment
                                                              • repski
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-01-09
                                                                • 1929

                                                                #32
                                                                Lakers/Houston under 196

                                                                -The Rockets have gone under the total 12 of their last 17 vs the Western Conference
                                                                -Houston has gone under 7 of their last 8 on the road.
                                                                -LAL has gone underthe total 16 of their last 22 as a favorite
                                                                -Lakers have gone under 14 of their last 17 overall,
                                                                -LA has gone underin 8 of their last 10 vs the Western Conference
                                                                -LAL has gone under the total in their last 5 at home.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • cap10
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 09-15-07
                                                                  • 494

                                                                  #33
                                                                  nice thread ck et al; follow it daily but don't post often;;

                                                                  this teaser looks real 'live' to me;;

                                                                  bjam;; 7t-4.5pts-pays 9-1

                                                                  heat +9
                                                                  hawks +9
                                                                  griz +12
                                                                  thunder +9.5
                                                                  cavs +8
                                                                  twolves +18
                                                                  rockets +10
                                                                  gl all
                                                                  woof;; all dogs
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • melincrea
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 02-20-09
                                                                    • 276

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Lakers -5
                                                                    -Houston is < .500 on the road

                                                                    Orlando -2 (buy 1.5 points)
                                                                    -Cleveland just lost to Washington and are traveling to Orlando
                                                                    -After a day of rest after losing to disgusting Toronto, Orlando must prove themselves worthy by beating the Cavaliers
                                                                    -Cleveland is a home based team
                                                                    -The last time these two met @Orlando, the Magic blew them away scoring 99-88
                                                                    Of course they are good on the road but while both Cleveland and Orlando are at the top of their divisions, the Magic will put on a show for the Cavaliers.

                                                                    Orlando 1st qtr -whatever
                                                                    Just found out that in their previous two games vs Cleveland, they lost both 1st quarters at home and at Cleveland.

                                                                    Orl/Cle Over 187
                                                                    -Going against the line movement for this one
                                                                    -First game Cle @ Orl = 187
                                                                    -Second game Orl @ Cle = 190
                                                                    -I like the odds..
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • TheLemonDropKid
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-02-09
                                                                      • 1501

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Hmmmmm.....

                                                                      MIA/CHAR Total is at 183??

                                                                      Their last 3 games against each other have been 187, 196, and 188.

                                                                      If I were going just by the line alone, I would probably play the Under because it seems like the books want people to play the Over.........but looking at the last 3 totals makes me think I'm trying too hard to outsmart the books at their own game. Seems like an easy Over bet?????
                                                                      Comment
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