A question for NBA experts

[bihon]

For those knowing real football (soccer ) it is no surprise when a havy underdog takes the full share to home.
Mostly it is due to lack of favorite's finishing touch, underdog scoring their only chance in a game and defending their lives in the remaining time.

But in basketball??
In a game with 500+ actions/shots pg one would expect much more normalisation and no big surprises.

So, how to explain this? How is it possible that a bad team after loosing against the same value team with 20 points difference, two days later upsets a huge favorite.
What factors could be decisive here?

[jtoler]

Pick which games you are referring to and I probably can give an answer.

[keel44]

Soccer has 2-4 goals usually. Basketball has 100 goals. Somebody, favorite or underdog has a bad night, that team could win by 20.

[NBA Maniac]

bihon, you should know, NBA have a lot of stops (time-outs), they are very usefull to stop opponents momentum, and start out own, coach can corrects plays,...
And a lot of others factors, but those "stops" are 1 of the main reasons.

[rufflesmuncher]

I wouldn't say I am an NBA expert but I have played basketball my whole life, NCAA and everything.

I can tell you that match ups change everything. Like Favors(from utah) can have a really good game against clevland, since love doesn't play any D. But then vs Boston he will suck if sullinger decides to buckle up and play hard nose.

Its all about the match ups, some teams just match up well against good teams and really badly against bad teams. Also momentum shifts and clock management has a big impact.

[bihon]

Pick which games you are referring to and I probably can give an answer.

Lets say recent game Magic vs Suns on Nov 30 (93-90)

OK, the importance was not so high, but how about e.g. playoffs 2004, Pistons vs Lakers (4:1)?
Lakers having 98.2 ppg in regular season, which suddenly dropped to 81.8 in the playoffs. Huh??

[bihon]

And a lot of others factors, but those "stops" are 1 of the main reasons.

But they are part of every game. A stop could change momentum indeed, but the strength ratio?

Soccer has 2-4 goals usually. Basketball has 100 goals. Somebody, favorite or underdog has a bad night, that team could win by 20.

I would understand a few bad actions against weaker opponent, but the whole game? A team has a lot of players at its disposal, does it mean that some teams rely only on a few key players.
Let me add that I never agreed with it.

Its all about the match ups, some teams just match up well against good teams and really badly against bad teams. Also momentum shifts and clock management has a big impact.

I partially agree regarding match ups, but then we would witness it as a regular pattern and it is not the case.

[rufflesmuncher]

There is no real "pattern" to match ups, you have to have played basketball to understand that. Sometimes guys just WANT to play defense and sometimes they don't. Its a mindset you have to get into. Like James Harden is actually good on D when he WNATS to be, but he rarely cares. Basketball is just really hard to predict because of that, it also matters if the guys are hot that day or not... I don't think theres a way to predict 100% accurately, but I'm sure there are formulas to get you better odds. Thats my 2 cents.

I know its not much, but thats what I can tell you from being a former basketball player.

Hope that helps

[bihon]

I know its not much, but thats what I can tell you from being a former basketball player.

That is actually exactly the input I'm looking for. Thank you.

[jtoler]

Lets say recent game Magic vs Suns on Nov 30 (93-90)

OK, the importance was not so high, but how about e.g. playoffs 2004, Pistons vs Lakers (4:1)?
Lakers having 98.2 ppg in regular season, which suddenly dropped to 81.8 in the playoffs. Huh??

For the Magic game, I think Magic are a little underrated, Phoenix has to be a little worse defensively, they are only separated by 3 games, Phoenix not much of a better team. I remember that Detroit series, they were a defensive minded team then, played at a rather slow tempo and had guys that could score and a pretty good bench if I remember correctly. I bet alot of tennis also, its a fickle sport, many nights basketball is the same and with an 82 game season they just dont take every game as a must win if you ask me, I remember hearing James Harden last year talk about how he wishes the season was shorter and said something to the effect of fans being upset when they lose at home and him saying its just one game, when you watch the playoffs in any sport you can just be coming out of a coma not knowing what time of year it is, but if you turn on the television after a couple minutes you can tell its a playoff game, whole different feel and its not just the crowd, everything slows down. Good nights, bad nights in every sport and like that guy above said matchups are so important.

[NBA Maniac]

bihon if you are searching for the golden goose eggs, is LOGIC that who find's them, is not going to tell you or tell to the general public.
The same way, you wouldn't.

[bihon]

bihon if you are searching for the golden goose eggs, is LOGIC that who find's them, is not going to tell you or tell to the general public.
The same way, you wouldn't.

I think I share a lot, but you may be right.