Rockets lose. Will be on the 2nd tier tomorrow night.
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O.K. I see your point. I will look into this more. Maybe I'll come up with a way to exploit it.Comment -
Chasing with the "best team" in the NBA is dangerous. Did you know that the 2nd best team in the league record wise (Pacers) are currently on an 8 game ATS losing streak?Comment -
That is why I am paper trading this. I want to see if it will hold up. Chase systems are inherently dangerous period. It is interesting that the Pacers are on an 8 game streak, but they are not #1. Are there any factors that have made that streak happen such as injuries? I am not interest in the best "record-wise". I am interested in playing off the public's emotions. I am sticking with the #1 ranked team because that is where the money is going, especially the square money. I am testing a theory and so far it has held up. That does not mean that it can never lose, but if it holds up more then it fails than it is a viable theory. That is what this experiment is all about. I have seen it work with back tests, now I want to see it work live. If it holds up I will consider putting real money behind it, probably when the NFL start up again. I am patient and calculating. I do not blindly accept anybody's word without testing the idea myself. If listened to everyone I would have given up on chase systems a long time ago.Comment -
Rockets get spanked. (They were -3 according to goldsheet) We will move on to tier 3 vs MIA. I mentioned I thought this would happen. The cycle peaked and broke one game before we started chasing the Rockets. They have had some very tough opponents and it will not get any easier against the Heat. I do not expect them to cover against the Heat but I will continue the chase anyways. It is ironic that each team I have chosen has gone through this same pattern. They hit a rough patch with tough road games, then they come home against some weaker opponents and cover. I believe the spreads get ground down against these tough opponents and then when they come home that is the time to strike.Comment -
We are on the 3rd tier against Miami today. The Rockets are +5.5. $82.61 on the Rockets. If they cover that is good. If they do not, the best outcome we can have is that Miami just thrashes the crap out of them. The worse the beating is, the weaker the point spread will be in the next game. This has typically been the pattern as of late. A new team is announced #1 on ESPN. They have a tough road schedule and go into a losing streak both SU and ATS. The last game in this streak is a bit humiliating. They return home and hammer their opponent. This happened with OKC and Miami. If this pattern holds up then the Rockets will lose ATS today and then deliver a beating to the Jazz. I think this is just a trend at this point, but just looking at it you could almost just eliminate the other games and bet the game when they return home without using a chase system. That is eventually where I am looking to go with this theory. I have not found a way to make accurate predictions using this yet. Every time I think I have something it usually turns out to be just a trend and returns to a 50/50 split. The spread is so good at doing this that it convinces me the theory is correct. If anyone finds a trend and jumps on it then spreads will be driven by that new action and eventually balance out. Back in the 80s betting on the underdogs in the NFL was good advice. Everyone bet the favorites so the bookies would shade the lines. Sharp bettors discovered this and started betting the dogs. This trend reversed because betting the underdog became common advice. More and more people started doing it and it pushed the spreads the other way. If I look at the results for the favorites over the past few years they have had the advantage. There was one year in the past 5 where you could have flat bet the favorites and beat the spread because they came out to 53% or 54%. That is a direct result of people advising bettors to take the underdogs. The spread was designed to seek balance. That trend will shift again and again throughout the years. It has a lot more to do with the psychology of the people placing the bets then it does with the teams that are playing. If you can find out where their heads are at you can figure out which side the spread is being pushed towards and then you take the opposite side. That is this theory in a nutshell. Chase systems have worked the best for me so far but the holy grail is to accurately predict individual games and flat bet. This reduces the risk of ruin and allows you to stay in the game, even if you lose 10 in a row. That is pretty tough to do with a chase system.Comment -
Houston loses by 0.5. That bums me out. I was hoping that Miami would spank them for that would make the spread weak against the Jazz today. Where they missed by just a hair the spread for today is not undervalued. I hope it is not overvalued but we will see. Tier 4: HOU -14 for $184.48. 14 points is a lot. I hope that the Rockets are really upset about losing the past few games bring it hard against the Jazz.Comment -
Rockets blast the Jazz. Clippers just took #1 spot in Rankings. Next game is on Saturday against Detroit.Comment -
I just realized I forgot to update this yesterday. Clippers were -13.5. They lose tier 1. Onto tier 2. They face the Bucks on Monday.Comment -
Been slacking lately. I think that is the downside of paper trading. It is too easy to get distracted. LAC was -16.5 on Monday and lost ATS according to goldsheet. On to tier 3 against New Orleans.Comment -
I did not read every page of this thread so please correct me if someone has brought this question up. Since teams usually gravitate to around .500 ATS record, couldn't you in theory bet the number one team on tier one 1 unit, then if they lose ATS bet them 2 units on tier 2, if they lose then you are down 3 units, then on tier 3 bet 4 units, then on tier 4 bet 8 units.
I guess my point is that if you are wiling to put up a large amount of money to get busted at 6 or 7 tiers, couldn't you just save the trouble of betting the other side.
You have a 50% chance of winning the first time, if you win you end the chase and put it aside incase you get busted in the future, but since teams usually don't lose 6 or 7 ATS in a row, I don't think it will reach 4 or 5 losses ATS. You could just keep doubling your bet and if you win with in the first 3 or 4 tiers you shouldn't have a problem. In the result of losing maybe 6 in a row, you will still have some bankroll from hitting most of the time within the first 4 times.
I saw a really interesting system like this on MLB 3 game seriesComment -
LAC is -7 tonight against New Orleans. This is the 3rd tier.Comment -
Okay, if I am understanding you correctly this has been discussed to an extreme extent. After discussing it we have concluded that a grand martingale on the favorite team will save you the juice on the opponent. I will not go deep in it here, but bihon demonstrated it mathematically and I adapted it. Thanks for you your input.
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LAC loses SU. This is a sticky situation. As I look ahead on their schedule it is a pretty tough road schedule. Without knowing what the spreads are in the upcoming games I would think their best chance of covering is when they come back home. Problem is this would put us in the 8th tier and this is only a 7 tier system. I am going to ride it out and hope for the best. This will be a good test for the system. Betdsi has tonight's game vs DAL as PK. This is the 4th tier.Comment -
NBA Grand Martingale
Tier Bet Size Money Spent 1 $11.00 $11.00 2 $34.10 $45.10 3 $82.61 $127.71 4 $184.48 $312.19 5 $398.41 $710.60 6 $847.66 $1,558.26 7 $1,791.86 $3,350.12
Here is the chart again as I know it is getting buried. We are at 184.48 tonight.Comment -
I wanted to mention a trend I have noticed. Every time a new team
comes up on the power rankings and we go with them they hit a losing
streak ATS. At this point I do not think this trend is anything more
then coincidence, but there is a logical explanation for it in my
theory.
When a team becomes ranked #1 in the power rankings this attracts
square money. In order to keep the books balanced the bookies must
push the spreads higher to attract people to the underdogs. Since
bookies already tend to shade the lines in favor of the underdog this
could tip the odds in the underdog's favor. This would be like a
pump and dump in the stock market.
In this experiment we have switched teams 4 times because the
power rankings have changed. In all 4 cases these teams started
losing ATS. The research would be exhausting but I would be very
interested to see if this trend actually holds up throughout the
season. It could hold a significant clue on taking the next step
with this theory.
The ultimate goal is to create accurate
predictions. When you use a system you are essentially saying that
you can not beat the bookies straight up so you are willing to accept
a higher risk of ruin in exchange for a chance to be profitable. If
I were to find that this holds up at 54% or better consistently year
after year I would dump the chase system in favor of a flat betting
strategy.Comment -
I'm putting that on my to-do list: how hard is it to get a listing of power-rankings over the year? Then compare that to ATS results for the team ranked number 1 for that period of time. Shouldn't be too hard to do....Comment -
Sorry, this post made me register for an account. I've read the first 4 pages of this thread and I had to chime in.. Firstly, DO not ever bet on both sides of action unless you are hedging something like a parlay. If you have a system with counterintuitive plays, ie: a negative progression system in which you are chasing streaks of losses and the system calls for bets on both sides of a supposed game, then you should adjust one bet accordingly as to save juice. If I was doing a triple negative progression following say okc who were 4 losses deep ats which my sysyem called for a $9 bet, and they were playing the wolves who were 3 losses deep ats calling for a $3 bet, I would cancel these out an only bet $6 on okc as to save the required juice the book charges. Adjustments can be made accordingly. Secondly, you don't have to play a game to run a chase system. I can wait until a team is 5 losses or wins in before I start my progression. This frees up resources and allows for a safer and more profitable system. Any questions?Comment -
OK looks like teams installed as number one in the Marc Stein power rankings for the first 21 or so weeks of this season have gone 34-34, or somewhere thereabouts, so that angle might not be too fruitful...although there seems to be a pattern that number one teams at the beginning of the season tended to beat the spread more than the teams selected toward the end of the season...Comment -
Zmun, I appreciate you input brother but I think you missed a lot of the discussion. This point has been discussed to ad nauseum and was switched to a grand martingale as a result. The other system does work but you are losing juice as you progress through the tiers. By switching to a grand martingale you get the same effect as before while saving money. This increased ROIs from an average of 30% to over 40%, closer to 50%. This allowed me to either take the larger profit or opt to add an extra tier for a safer chase system. I chose the latter. If you are hung up on the chase system you are missing the main point of this thread. The point is not about which chase system will work best but why the chase system is working in the first place. It shouldn't be. According to all the experts you hear chiming in all the time chase systems do not work. They are convinced that the only way to win is to grind out a win percentage above 52.4%. If you can do that there is no need for such a chase system. Just flat bet and you will make a profit by grinding it out. The blatant fact of the matter is that 99% of sports bettors are unable to do this (at least consistently). The edge you are receiving here is not a percentage advantage. It is a balancing mechanism. We do not know when a team is going to beat the spread or lose to it, but we do know that on average the #1 ranked team in the NBA will not lose more the 7 games ATS. Let me say that this is average. That does not mean it will never happen. Armed with this information you can then create a chase system to take advantage of this. The entire point of this thread, and all other threads where I discuss "The Pendulum Cycle Theory" is that this game is not random. Each time a top ranked team loses ATS the odds increase that they will cover in the next game. Each time they win ATS the odds increase that they will lose in the next game. The point spread system is a free market system where the prices are determined by the betting public. That is why trends never last. As soon as a trend is discovered everyone starts to bet on that trend. This makes the point spread move in favor of the team opposing this trend. People have been so bent out of shape with the system I put in place to take advantage of this that they missed the bigger picture. I am not winning because of luck. I am winning because I discovered an edge that is not defined by the percentage of wins vs losses, but rather the size of losing streaks. If my theory is correct then this is built right into the point spread system and thus will never go away. You simply must stay on top of these cycles and understand that trends will change from time to time. The changing trends could effect the size of the cycles, but those cycles will always exist and there is not a damn thing that is random about it.Comment -
Great work pip2!!! I work for a living and thus this is just a hobby I do when I have spare time. Spare time has been very hard to come by lately. 34-34!!!! That is amazing. The point spread is so perfect at balancing things no matter how you try to attack it. The cycles are holding up though. I did have someone mention that the Pacers had a losing streak greater then 7. I think it was 9 games deep if I remember correctly, but they were not #1 when this happened. I am only interested in who is #1. We chase that team and when the chase has concluded if there is a new team we switch. So far there has been a new #1 team for each and every time my chases have concluded. I believe that switching teams is the vital ingredient to making this work. I would still like to find a way to grind it out instead of using a chase system but so far have not found a tell-tale sign telling me when things will change. Thanks again.Comment -
Another chase concludes and we have yet another new #1 ranked team. The Spurs are now #1. We begin a new chase vs DEN tonight: $11. Betdsi has the Spurs as -6.5.Comment -
I think it is interesting to note how I am subject to the same psychology that I am looking to exploit. After the Clippers lost to New Orleans I was preparing for a really bad streak. The Pelicans are dragging up the rear on the power rankings and when the Clippers lost to them this built fear in both me and the betting public. It is that fear that made the spread weak against the Mavericks. I can see this theory working, even on myself. The spread was designed to keep things even between both teams and it does its job with deadly accuracy as we have just seen from pip2's research. It does this by oscillating back and forth with the emotional swings that I just described above. This creates cycles that can be timed and taken advantage of with chasing systems. Going into the game against Dallas I was prepared to see my entire system fail in this chase even though I was only in tier 4. It is emotions like this that make the point spread system work. I am absolutely convinced this theory is working.Comment -
I understand exactly what you're doing. I've researched negative triple progression integrated into sports betting for the last 4 years spending literally hundreds of hours scouring streaks from the past dozen years attempting to find the most efficient betting curve telling me when to start my progression and how to disperse my bankroll on the trend. I've researched the following: ats, totals, quarters, and halves. You can seriously use a progressive betting system on any trend. I fade teams losing streaks, winning streaks, over streaks, under streaks for more than just games but also quarters and halves. This works for NBA, NHL, MLB, and most importantly nfl. Personally, i use a triple progression system on nfl which I start after a trend of 3 wins/losses/overs/unders. I was in prison when I was taught negative triple progression by a professional blackjack player and I adopted it to sports before I had read anything about any martingale system information. I've ran is system on roulette as well. The board of past results serves a tremendous purpose-- you don't even have to place a bet to see past results before you start your progression. I fade odds/evens, black/reds, etc. this works well in person at casinos and tables with no limits. The number one thing to watch out for is to not start your base unit too high. I will never risk my whole bankroll on one team. Personally I start my progression in most sports after 3 losses/wins, sometimes after 4, and I use a triple progression for the first 3 bets I place and a recovery bet for #4 and 5. If the team goes on an 8 or 9 streak I usually cut my losses and walk away to fight another day. This usually doesn't cost me much and is easily recoverable in a week or two from my other bets. Big streaks happen and they are inevitable. If you play long enough you will see really crazy streaks--basically the infinite monkey theorem if you've studied statistics. I understand and fully believe in your logic about the line movement from bettors' psychology.Comment -
My goal is always to make the most money on small streaks and if the streak turns out to be longer than expected try to get my money back or to kill the progression and to walk away. Also, 3 losses then a win are more common than 4 losses then a win. This is why my progression usually looks like this:
lose, lose, lose, (I start betting here), (1 unit), (3 units), (9units), (27 units), (40units+juice. I call this a recovery bet), (80units+juice) then walk away
my units aren't 1%, but more usually .3 to .4% depending in the sport and my other betting obligations. I run many progressions at 1 time. Today I had 15 bets ranging from 1 unit to 27 units.Comment -
ZMUN thanks for your input.
I have found the streaks vary in size from one sport to the next. A 5 tier system works well in the NFL. I needed 7 for the NBA. I am currently working on adapting this to the MLB. The over/unders look to be my target, but also am going to test the bottom ranked underdog. I should be able to get extra tiers due to plus odds of the dogs.
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This experiment is officially a success. The Spurs are still on top. I will bet the next two games with them. If they lose both I can cut my losses and still show a profit. The exit point is the most important part of the system. If you start a chase with only 5 games left to go in the season and lose all 5 you could destroy the profits for the entire season. It is best to get out while there are 7 games left. If you used this system for the entire year you would have played 75 games and won $10 for each. That is a profit of $750 against a bankroll of $3,350. That is 22% ROI. I am going to run an experiment on the Spurs and see if I can grow that number by compounding the profits after each win. I know the ROI will be bigger but not sure by how much. I will post my results.Comment -
Spurs -13.5 vs the Pelicans tonight. We won last night so this starts a new progression. If I lose then I will chase it to the next game. Win, lose or push, then next game is the last for the season. The system made a profit. I will back this thing with real money when the NFL rolls around.Comment -
Spurs have won the last 3 in a row ATS. They face GSW tonight as -9.5 favorites. This is the final game. If we lose we will not chase. You always want to exit with some games left to go so that you do not lose your profits in a final chase. That leaves 7 games left on the schedule. This experiment has been a success. I came in midway through the season, but up to the point that I had started OKC had not had a 7 game losing streak so I am counting that. This means there is a total of 74 games bet with a profit of $740. If we win tonight it will be $750. If we lose it will be $729 for the season. This is against a bankroll of $3,350 for roughly a 20% gain. They may not be too exciting to some people but if you compound that in the NFL and MLB that will start adding up quick.Comment -
Good workComment
