Let's look at
that example. I will show you how I came up with that number. I am
not above making mistakes. If there is a flaw in my math please
feel free to point it out. The whole point of doing exercises like
this is to discover any errors in judgment before I do it using real
money.
2007 NE Patriots
Win $1,059 –
ROI 25.9%
Each green
square that you see represents a gain of $100. The only way you can
lose is if a losing streak outlasts the size of the chase system,
which is 5 tiers deep in this case.
You have 14
green squares. 14 x $100 = $1,400.
The last chase
does not resolve and goes 2 tiers deep. Tier 1 is $110 and tier 2 is
$231. $110 + $231 = $341. The Martingale system recuperates losses
so every red square you see before this was recovered by the green
squares along with a $100 gain.
$1,400 - $341 =
$1,059.
Had you just
chased the Pats you would have won 10 units and lost in week 15 making
a $890 gain. By betting with this system you increase your returns
by $169.
If you look at
the Steelers example the difference is substantially larger because
they lost ATS much more then the Pats in this example.
The second
benefit of betting the opponent is that if you do lose 5 tiers the
wins offset the loss. It is still a devastating loss, but not total.
Hopefully that
clears up any confusion. If I have made an error then please let me
know. I believe my math is correct but I am far from infallible.
that example. I will show you how I came up with that number. I am
not above making mistakes. If there is a flaw in my math please
feel free to point it out. The whole point of doing exercises like
this is to discover any errors in judgment before I do it using real
money.
2007 NE Patriots
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
NE |
F |
NE |
F |
NE |
F |
NE |
F |
NE |
BYE |
NE |
F |
F |
F |
NE |
NP |
NP |
F |
NE |
F |
NE |
F |
NE |
F |
NE |
F |
BYE |
F |
NE |
NE |
NE |
F |
NP |
NP |
Win $1,059 –
ROI 25.9%
Each green
square that you see represents a gain of $100. The only way you can
lose is if a losing streak outlasts the size of the chase system,
which is 5 tiers deep in this case.
You have 14
green squares. 14 x $100 = $1,400.
The last chase
does not resolve and goes 2 tiers deep. Tier 1 is $110 and tier 2 is
$231. $110 + $231 = $341. The Martingale system recuperates losses
so every red square you see before this was recovered by the green
squares along with a $100 gain.
$1,400 - $341 =
$1,059.
Had you just
chased the Pats you would have won 10 units and lost in week 15 making
a $890 gain. By betting with this system you increase your returns
by $169.
If you look at
the Steelers example the difference is substantially larger because
they lost ATS much more then the Pats in this example.
The second
benefit of betting the opponent is that if you do lose 5 tiers the
wins offset the loss. It is still a devastating loss, but not total.
Hopefully that
clears up any confusion. If I have made an error then please let me
know. I believe my math is correct but I am far from infallible.