Lakers and bettors have to deal with Bynum injury
Lakers and bettors have to deal with Bynum injury
As the old saying goes, "The bigger they are, the harder they fall." And Lakers center Andrew Bynum fell hard enough to wreck his right knee and put him on the shelf for up to three months. Such is life in the volatile betting world that is the NBA where one key injury can affect so much. Several big stars are down in addition to Bynum, including Celtics big man Kevin Garnett who was taken down by the flu bug.
Handicappers thrive on market volatility. The NBA provides fantastic swings in value on a regular basis; all it takes is for one star player to succumb to injury.
Fortunately for us, the NBA can’t seem to stop at one. Check out the most recent rash of hospital visits:
Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers
Bynum was hurt during Sunday’s 115-98 win over the Memphis Grizzlies (+10½); Monday’s MRI revealed torn ligaments in Bynum’s right knee. He’ll be out 8-12 weeks, leaving the Lakers with much the same lineup they had during the second half of the 2007-08 campaign when the 7-foot center was on the shelf. Using the WARP metric (Wins Above Replacement Player) now available at Basketball Prospectus, Bynum’s 5.7 rating is third on the Lakers behind Kobe Bryant (8.2 WARP) and Pau Gasol (7.3 WARP), and it comes at a premium position.
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets were playing very well Monday night against the visiting Portland Trail Blazers. Paul had 13 assists in 28 minutes (nine in the first quarter) before limping off the court with what team officials called a strained right groin. An MRI was planned for Tuesday. New Orleans (-3) was outscored 38-15 in the fourth quarter on the way to a 97-89 defeat. This team is clearly in trouble if their MVP candidate (14.6 WARP) is out of action for anything more than a few days.
Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic
Nelson (5.8 WARP) was having an All-Star season for the Magic – up until Monday, when he dislocated his right shoulder against the Dallas Mavericks on a hard foul by center Erick Dampier. The Magic went on to lose 105-95 as 7½-point home faves. Once again, results of an MRI (scheduled for Tuesday) will determine how long Nelson has to sit out. This is Orlando’s first major injury of the season; good health had kept the Magic very profitable up until now at 36-11 SU and 31-15-1 ATS.
Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
This one isn’t too bad, but it’s a perfect PSA to remind everyone to get a flu shot. Garnett (7.6 WARP) and a handful of his teammates skipped this year; on Sunday, the Big Ticket had a high fever and missed playing against his old team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. Boston still beat the Wolves 109-101, but failed to cash in as 12-point home faves. Garnett didn’t make the trip for Tuesday’s road game with the Philadelphia 76ers. Tony Allen (0.4 WARP) might have to miss this one, as well.
Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets
Tuesday, Feb 3, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
The Bulls (21-27 SU, 22-26 ATS) have only one injury of note: starting center Drew Gooden (1.4 WARP), who is expected to miss another two games with an abdominal strain and a groin pull. This is actually beneficial to the Bulls in the short term; they’re 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS since Gooden’s latest injury. This gives more playing time to Joakim Noah (3.5 WARP) and Tyrus Thomas (3.7 WARP), who are superior to Gooden in just about every measure except maturity – and facial hair.
Not only have Noah and Thomas outperformed Gooden this season, they’ve also been bigger factors than two of Houston’s Big Three: Tracy McGrady (2.9 WARP) and Ron Artest (2.5 WARP). The Rockets (29-19 SU, 22-26 ATS) are in the red this year while McGrady and Artest pop in and out of the lineup with various injuries. McGrady is expected to face the Bulls despite tweaking his brittle ankle during Friday’s practice session. Backup guard Luther Head (-0.4 WARP) remains out with a sore right foot, which again should benefit Houston.
Chicago hasn’t found a way to snuff the Rockets since 2005. Houston is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over the past three years, beating the betting odds in all three meetings at the Toyota Center. The over is also 4-1 during that span. If you’re looking to play the total, the over is 25-22-1 for Chicago this year (12-12 away) and 25-23 for Houston – but only 9-13 at home.
As the old saying goes, "The bigger they are, the harder they fall." And Lakers center Andrew Bynum fell hard enough to wreck his right knee and put him on the shelf for up to three months. Such is life in the volatile betting world that is the NBA where one key injury can affect so much. Several big stars are down in addition to Bynum, including Celtics big man Kevin Garnett who was taken down by the flu bug.
Handicappers thrive on market volatility. The NBA provides fantastic swings in value on a regular basis; all it takes is for one star player to succumb to injury.
Fortunately for us, the NBA can’t seem to stop at one. Check out the most recent rash of hospital visits:
Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers
Bynum was hurt during Sunday’s 115-98 win over the Memphis Grizzlies (+10½); Monday’s MRI revealed torn ligaments in Bynum’s right knee. He’ll be out 8-12 weeks, leaving the Lakers with much the same lineup they had during the second half of the 2007-08 campaign when the 7-foot center was on the shelf. Using the WARP metric (Wins Above Replacement Player) now available at Basketball Prospectus, Bynum’s 5.7 rating is third on the Lakers behind Kobe Bryant (8.2 WARP) and Pau Gasol (7.3 WARP), and it comes at a premium position.
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets were playing very well Monday night against the visiting Portland Trail Blazers. Paul had 13 assists in 28 minutes (nine in the first quarter) before limping off the court with what team officials called a strained right groin. An MRI was planned for Tuesday. New Orleans (-3) was outscored 38-15 in the fourth quarter on the way to a 97-89 defeat. This team is clearly in trouble if their MVP candidate (14.6 WARP) is out of action for anything more than a few days.
Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic
Nelson (5.8 WARP) was having an All-Star season for the Magic – up until Monday, when he dislocated his right shoulder against the Dallas Mavericks on a hard foul by center Erick Dampier. The Magic went on to lose 105-95 as 7½-point home faves. Once again, results of an MRI (scheduled for Tuesday) will determine how long Nelson has to sit out. This is Orlando’s first major injury of the season; good health had kept the Magic very profitable up until now at 36-11 SU and 31-15-1 ATS.
Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
This one isn’t too bad, but it’s a perfect PSA to remind everyone to get a flu shot. Garnett (7.6 WARP) and a handful of his teammates skipped this year; on Sunday, the Big Ticket had a high fever and missed playing against his old team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. Boston still beat the Wolves 109-101, but failed to cash in as 12-point home faves. Garnett didn’t make the trip for Tuesday’s road game with the Philadelphia 76ers. Tony Allen (0.4 WARP) might have to miss this one, as well.
Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets
Tuesday, Feb 3, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
The Bulls (21-27 SU, 22-26 ATS) have only one injury of note: starting center Drew Gooden (1.4 WARP), who is expected to miss another two games with an abdominal strain and a groin pull. This is actually beneficial to the Bulls in the short term; they’re 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS since Gooden’s latest injury. This gives more playing time to Joakim Noah (3.5 WARP) and Tyrus Thomas (3.7 WARP), who are superior to Gooden in just about every measure except maturity – and facial hair.
Not only have Noah and Thomas outperformed Gooden this season, they’ve also been bigger factors than two of Houston’s Big Three: Tracy McGrady (2.9 WARP) and Ron Artest (2.5 WARP). The Rockets (29-19 SU, 22-26 ATS) are in the red this year while McGrady and Artest pop in and out of the lineup with various injuries. McGrady is expected to face the Bulls despite tweaking his brittle ankle during Friday’s practice session. Backup guard Luther Head (-0.4 WARP) remains out with a sore right foot, which again should benefit Houston.
Chicago hasn’t found a way to snuff the Rockets since 2005. Houston is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over the past three years, beating the betting odds in all three meetings at the Toyota Center. The over is also 4-1 during that span. If you’re looking to play the total, the over is 25-22-1 for Chicago this year (12-12 away) and 25-23 for Houston – but only 9-13 at home.