Betting the NBA Benches: The best & worst reserves
Betting the NBA Benches: The best & worst reserves
Roster depth is tested in each and every sport, and that's especially true in the NBA where the Sixth Man Award is as coveted as the MVP trophy. Just as savvy baseball bettors cap bullpens, successful hoops cappers know the value of the players coming off the bench in the NBA. Some of the best reserves can be found on the Nuggets' bench while some of the worst are down in the Sunshine State with the Heat.
Ok, so Martin Lawrence was, in fact, a visionary comedian. His 1994 Saturday Night Live portrayal of a New Jersey Nets benchwarmer eating popcorn during a game was 15 years ahead of its time; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Chucky Atkins and his teammates enjoyed some hot, buttery goodness in real life during last Friday’s 107-104 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. It’s funny because it’s true.
This is the image the square end of the betting public has of the typical NBA reserve. Even some players openly grouse about having to come off the bench – Los Angeles Lakers sixth-man Lamar Odom, for one. But it’s the same no matter what sport you look at; the second-string players are undervalued. Even the word substitute has a negative ring to it. In reality, teams with strong benches put themselves in the best position to overcome the betting odds.
You could argue that the popcorn-eating Thunder qualify at 29-16 ATS, with Nenad Krstic (16.1 points, 9.8 rebounds per 40 minutes this year) coming back from Russia to join useful veterans like Joe Smith (13.7 points, 9.1 rebounds/40) and Chris Wilcox (17.8 points, 10.8 rebounds/40). But the Best of Chance’s Best and Worst Benches lies elsewhere, at the top of the Northwest Division.
The Best: Denver Nuggets (29-15 SU, 25-18-1 ATS)
Here’s the raw data on the top Denver reserves:
Denver sold Marcus Camby to the Clippers for a song, and it’s as if he never left. That’s primarily due to the depth of the Nuggets frontcourt. Even with Carmelo Anthony injured, a player as good as Balkman – who was a strong rookie for the New York Knicks before last year’s sophomore slump – can only get a few spare minutes here and there. Andersen has been particularly Camby-like with 1.9 blocks in just 18.6 minutes per game.
Much of the credit for Denver’s current position belongs to Kiki Vandeweghe. Between taking over the GM job in 2001 and his dismissal in 2006, the former Nuggets point guard brought in Camby, Anthony, Kleiza, Kenyon Martin (albeit overpriced) and coach George Karl. Vandeweghe is now assisting New Jersey Nets GM Rod Thorn; the Nets bench is looking much better these days with Brook Lopez bumping Josh Boone to reserve duty and Keyon Dooling bringing the defense after a three-year stint in Orlando.
The Worst: Miami Heat (24-19 SU, 20-21-1 ATS)
Remember that plucky team of D-Leaguers that went 14-7 ATS at the end of last year, after Dwyane Wade was shut down to rehab his left knee? Maybe Miami should have kept more of those guys around. Here’s how Miami’s new bench is doing now that Wade’s back and playing like an MVP again:
And it drops off sharply from there; Wade is, as they say, carrying the Heat on his back these days. Beasley is certainly productive, although as inconsistent as you would expect from a rookie with his personality. Cook’s usefulness is limited to his perimeter jumper, Quinn’s 16.7 minutes per game reflect Miami’s lack of depth at that position, and Diawara is a project player who has gotten added playing time because of Shawn Marion’s groin injury.
This bench is so thin that the infamous Jamaal Magloire (7.85 PER) is getting 11.3 minutes per game as Miami’s backup center. This is why the Heat are rumored to be willing to trade Marion and Marcus Banks to the Toronto Raptors for Jermaine O’Neal, which would essentially undo the trade that brought Marion and Banks from the Phoenix Suns for Shaquille O’Neal. This is also where Alonzo Mourning would have been a big help, had he not decided his 38-year-old body wasn’t up to another season of NBA wear and tear. Somebody call Rony Seikaly’s agent.
Roster depth is tested in each and every sport, and that's especially true in the NBA where the Sixth Man Award is as coveted as the MVP trophy. Just as savvy baseball bettors cap bullpens, successful hoops cappers know the value of the players coming off the bench in the NBA. Some of the best reserves can be found on the Nuggets' bench while some of the worst are down in the Sunshine State with the Heat.
Ok, so Martin Lawrence was, in fact, a visionary comedian. His 1994 Saturday Night Live portrayal of a New Jersey Nets benchwarmer eating popcorn during a game was 15 years ahead of its time; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Chucky Atkins and his teammates enjoyed some hot, buttery goodness in real life during last Friday’s 107-104 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. It’s funny because it’s true.
This is the image the square end of the betting public has of the typical NBA reserve. Even some players openly grouse about having to come off the bench – Los Angeles Lakers sixth-man Lamar Odom, for one. But it’s the same no matter what sport you look at; the second-string players are undervalued. Even the word substitute has a negative ring to it. In reality, teams with strong benches put themselves in the best position to overcome the betting odds.
You could argue that the popcorn-eating Thunder qualify at 29-16 ATS, with Nenad Krstic (16.1 points, 9.8 rebounds per 40 minutes this year) coming back from Russia to join useful veterans like Joe Smith (13.7 points, 9.1 rebounds/40) and Chris Wilcox (17.8 points, 10.8 rebounds/40). But the Best of Chance’s Best and Worst Benches lies elsewhere, at the top of the Northwest Division.
The Best: Denver Nuggets (29-15 SU, 25-18-1 ATS)
Here’s the raw data on the top Denver reserves:
- Chris Andersen: 17.35 PER, 12.5 points/40, 11.8 rebounds/40
- Linas Kleiza: 14.29 PER, 18.5 p/40, 6.8 r/40
- J.R. Smith: 15.18 PER, .374 from downtown
- Renaldo Balkman: 16.62 PER, 14.5 p/40, 9.4 r/40
Denver sold Marcus Camby to the Clippers for a song, and it’s as if he never left. That’s primarily due to the depth of the Nuggets frontcourt. Even with Carmelo Anthony injured, a player as good as Balkman – who was a strong rookie for the New York Knicks before last year’s sophomore slump – can only get a few spare minutes here and there. Andersen has been particularly Camby-like with 1.9 blocks in just 18.6 minutes per game.
Much of the credit for Denver’s current position belongs to Kiki Vandeweghe. Between taking over the GM job in 2001 and his dismissal in 2006, the former Nuggets point guard brought in Camby, Anthony, Kleiza, Kenyon Martin (albeit overpriced) and coach George Karl. Vandeweghe is now assisting New Jersey Nets GM Rod Thorn; the Nets bench is looking much better these days with Brook Lopez bumping Josh Boone to reserve duty and Keyon Dooling bringing the defense after a three-year stint in Orlando.
The Worst: Miami Heat (24-19 SU, 20-21-1 ATS)
Remember that plucky team of D-Leaguers that went 14-7 ATS at the end of last year, after Dwyane Wade was shut down to rehab his left knee? Maybe Miami should have kept more of those guys around. Here’s how Miami’s new bench is doing now that Wade’s back and playing like an MVP again:
- Michael Beasley: 15.24 PER, 21.6 points/40, 8.5 rebounds/40
- Daequan Cook: 11.79 PER, 16.2 p/40, .423 from downtown
- Chris Quinn: 13.18 PER, 19.5 p/40, 5.2 assists/40
- Yakhouba Diawara: 7.37 PER, 10.8 p/40, 3.8 r/40
And it drops off sharply from there; Wade is, as they say, carrying the Heat on his back these days. Beasley is certainly productive, although as inconsistent as you would expect from a rookie with his personality. Cook’s usefulness is limited to his perimeter jumper, Quinn’s 16.7 minutes per game reflect Miami’s lack of depth at that position, and Diawara is a project player who has gotten added playing time because of Shawn Marion’s groin injury.
This bench is so thin that the infamous Jamaal Magloire (7.85 PER) is getting 11.3 minutes per game as Miami’s backup center. This is why the Heat are rumored to be willing to trade Marion and Marcus Banks to the Toronto Raptors for Jermaine O’Neal, which would essentially undo the trade that brought Marion and Banks from the Phoenix Suns for Shaquille O’Neal. This is also where Alonzo Mourning would have been a big help, had he not decided his 38-year-old body wasn’t up to another season of NBA wear and tear. Somebody call Rony Seikaly’s agent.
