These finals are setting up exactly like last year

[nj1035]

It's nothing like last year. The only similarity is the Heat lost game one. Everything else, opponent, matchups, home court, even the Heat are different. Ridiculous to use that reasoning alone to bet on the Heat.

[Seto]

you are a luck bettor and indeed you might get lucky. i cant rule out the possibilty, but i can say for sure that you are a fish. its very unlikely that the heat win more than 2 games this series.

luck bettor

sounds like someone is jealous and insecure.

[Seto]

It's nothing like last year. The only similarity is the Heat lost game one. Everything else, opponent, matchups, home court, even the Heat are different. Ridiculous to use that reasoning alone to bet on the Heat.

I'm not using that reasoning to bet on the Heat. The other similarity is that everyone on SBR has jumped on the Spurs bandwagon like everyone jumped on the Thunder bandwagon last year. And I believe the outcome will be the same. I'm not fading SBR, just noticing things are setting up the same way on this board.

[YouHave2outs]

cleaned up on the finals last year and plan on doing it again this year.

[iQon]

Great sample size.

[Seto]

just realised i sounded very "goat milky" with that (fyi i don't moind the guy at all).

still, i think that's gonna happen. obviously nothing is a guarantee.

[Seto]

Great sample size.

I'm just noticing something. I am not betting on the Heat because SBR is on the Spurs bandwagon. Two separate things.

[csknight3]

Not trying to be a hater. The purpose of this forum is to post ideas and information and not argue about who is better a bettor or who's opinion is right. We won't know that until the game is played. I think its a little crazy how much people bash other people on this site.

With that being said, I am sorry I disagree with your opinion Seto. This isn't like last year in the fact that what some people said above is true. I don't think anyone thought the Thunder were actually capable of beating the Heat in a 7 game series. The Spurs have a much better chance than the Thunder ever did. (This is true because this Spurs team is better than the Thunder team that made it last year and the Heat as of right now are play worse than they were last year.) I mean don't get me wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat did win this series somehow but the Spurs still seem undervalued in this series and not respected by the books.

If Miami wants to win this series they need to play their best basketball. Last game, the heat played as good as they did in their best Indiana game. I think thats why people are moving away from the Heat. The Spurs played an average game (a great game in the statistics of turnovers but they still missed a lot of shots they can make) and still won on the road. This is what I saw at least. And this is why I don't know if I can put money on the heat. But best of luck Seto. If you like the Heat there is a great value (well compared to what the series was before game 1) for that right now which could be beneficial for you.

[Seto]

Not trying to be a hater. The purpose of this forum is to post ideas and information and not argue about who is better a bettor or who's opinion is right. We won't know that until the game is played. I think its a little crazy how much people bash other people on this site.

With that being said, I am sorry I disagree with your opinion Seto. This isn't like last year in the fact that what some people said above is true. I don't think anyone thought the Thunder were actually capable of beating the Heat in a 7 game series. The Spurs have a much better chance than the Thunder ever did. (This is true because this Spurs team is better than the Thunder team that made it last year and the Heat as of right now are play worse than they were last year.) I mean don't get me wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat did win this series somehow but the Spurs still seem undervalued in this series and not respected by the books.

If Miami wants to win this series they need to play their best basketball. Last game, the heat played as good as they did in their best Indiana game. I think thats why people are moving away from the Heat. The Spurs played an average game (a great game in the statistics of turnovers but they still missed a lot of shots they can make) and still won on the road. This is what I saw at least. And this is why I don't know if I can put money on the heat. But best of luck Seto. If you like the Heat there is a great value (well compared to what the series was before game 1) for that right now which could be beneficial for you.

You're forgiven for disagreeing

Most of SBR was on OKC for the series last year. I made a thread saying Miami wouldn't lose any of their 3 home games and people were saying no way... Most believed OKC would win. Not bashing those people but that's just how it happened.

While you could agree this Spurs team is better than 2012 OKC (I don't think so) I think they will be overwhelmed by superior athleticism/talent that Miami has just like they were v OKC last year.

I'm not saying betting on the Spurs is wrong. While the title thread was provocative, the aim was just to say that people on this board are overreacting after 1 game, as usual. If Heat win games 2 and 3 everyone will be on the Heat bandwagon. If Spurs win 4 and 5 everyone will switch back. That's just how it happens with most people here, not saying you are like that. Sometimes it's good to go with the flow of the series but in this case I do believe the Heat will win relatively handily in the end, in 6 games. We'll see. Gonna be interesting in any case.

[csknight3]

You're forgiven for disagreeing

Most of SBR was on OKC for the series last year. I made a thread saying Miami wouldn't lose any of their 3 home games and people were saying no way... Most believed OKC would win. Not bashing those people but that's just how it happened.

While you could agree this Spurs team is better than 2012 OKC (I don't think so) I think they will be overwhelmed by superior athleticism/talent that Miami has just like they were v OKC last year.

I'm not saying betting on the Spurs is wrong. While the title thread was provocative, the aim was just to say that people on this board are overreacting after 1 game, as usual. If Heat win games 2 and 3 everyone will be on the Heat bandwagon. If Spurs win 4 and 5 everyone will switch back. That's just how it happens with most people here, not saying you are like that. Sometimes it's good to go with the flow of the series but in this case I do believe the Heat will win relatively handily in the end, in 6 games. We'll see. Gonna be interesting in any case.

I definitely agree with the logic that public people jump on whoever wins the last game. Its easier for them to justify their reasoning for picking something if it had recently just happened. And I agree people will hammer the Heat if they win game 2 and 3. In fact I kind of want them too just because I got a future bet on Heat to win it all during the season and I want to hedge it a little. Its kind of like the stock market haha, some people look at which stock had the largest increase the day or week or month before and automatically assume the stock will continue to do this. Then the stock drops and they can't believe it.

The good part for both of us, no matter which side you are on, IF the series goes back and forth, there will be plenty of value spots (if timed right) throughout the series for both the Spurs and Heat backers to be able to make a profit. The books love the bandwagon riding and public opinion momentum caused in sports, no matter what team it is for. They can use that to their benefits but so can WE if we are smart

[BettingWizard]

spurs are much better than the shitty thunder

[Shafted69]

these finals are setting up to be like the 2007 Cleveland sweep

[Speedy88]

I don't think that many people are giving up on the Heat. I see plenty of people on here taking Heat +105 and a ton of people are taking Miami in game 2 (no one thinks Miami will lose 2 in a row).

I do think SA wins it though, but this will go 6 or 7 games.

[Sport_Fish]

spurs are much better than the shitty thunder

You better be back in 2 weeks to tell us which team was the play to win the NBA title.

[Shafted69]

once word reaches SBR forum, you can throw all trends out the window.

[Seto]

You better be back in 2 weeks to tell us which team was the play to win the NBA title.

[Seto]

I don't think that many people are giving up on the Heat. I see plenty of people on here taking Heat +105 and a ton of people are taking Miami in game 2 (no one thinks Miami will lose 2 in a row).

I do think SA wins it though, but this will go 6 or 7 games.

Maybe I'm exaggerating a bit. But that's the feel I get from reading most threads.

Doubt Miami loses a game 6 or 7 at home. If this series comes back to Miami (which it should), this will be a different story than 2011.

[Seto]

I definitely agree with the logic that public people jump on whoever wins the last game. Its easier for them to justify their reasoning for picking something if it had recently just happened. And I agree people will hammer the Heat if they win game 2 and 3. In fact I kind of want them too just because I got a future bet on Heat to win it all during the season and I want to hedge it a little. Its kind of like the stock market haha, some people look at which stock had the largest increase the day or week or month before and automatically assume the stock will continue to do this. Then the stock drops and they can't believe it.

The good part for both of us, no matter which side you are on, IF the series goes back and forth, there will be plenty of value spots (if timed right) throughout the series for both the Spurs and Heat backers to be able to make a profit. The books love the bandwagon riding and public opinion momentum caused in sports, no matter what team it is for. They can use that to their benefits but so can WE if we are smart

Good post there. Def agree with most of it.

I am sold on the fact the Heat will win this thing. Whether I'll be right or wrong remains to be seen, and it would be stupid not to consider all possibilities after each game, but I don't think I'll hedge even if Miami takes a 2-1 lead in a couple games. Who knows though.

[Speedy88]

Maybe I'm exaggerating a bit. But that's the feel I get from reading most threads.

Doubt Miami loses a game 6 or 7 at home. If this series comes back to Miami (which it should), this will be a different story than 2011.

Spurs can win on the road. During these entire playoffs, they've only lost 1 road game. Home or away doesn't really matter to this veteran group. This finals is different than the last two years. 2011 Heat lost because LBJ lost confidence and had an awful series. 2012 Heat got a great matchup against a young OKC team. Spurs are a much tougher matchup than the 2011 Mavs or 2012 Thunder. It will be a great series no doubt. All kinds of great matchups and mismatches throughout this series.

[Seto]

Spurs can win on the road. During these entire playoffs, they've only lost 1 road game. Home or away doesn't really matter to this veteran group. This finals is different than the last two years. 2011 Heat lost because LBJ lost confidence and had an awful series. 2012 Heat got a great matchup against a young OKC team. Spurs are a much tougher matchup than the 2011 Mavs or 2012 Thunder. It will be a great series no doubt. All kinds of great matchups and mismatches throughout this series.

I know, and so were the 2011 Mavs, who bon both in LA in the WCSF against the real Lakers and won both in OKC in the WCF. They almost played better at home than in Dallas. I just don't see it playing out the same way. I don't think this Spurs team is really much better than the 2011 Mavs, if anything because the Mavs had Dirk. Tony Parker may prove me wrong, but he ain't Dirk Nowitzki calibre to me. Spurs had an easy route to the finals, remember this team just about scraped the Warriors who had an injured Curry, an injured Bogut, and a very injured David Lee. Lakers is self-explanatory. Memphis is a team that most (including myself) had losing to the shitty Clippers in the 1st round and were one of the worst offenses in the entire NBA during the season. They probably would have lost that series had Blake Griffin not got injured before game 5.

Not saying the Heat didn't also have it easy with the shitty Bucks and banged up Bulls, but I'm still not sold on this Spurs team. If I ever am sold on them, it will be too late for me, so I guess it's just time to find out if I had this team right or not.

[El Sol]

You alluded to it earlier, but this Parexa guy sounds like he has a lot of scared money on the Spurs. Seen it hundreds of times before. He wants his own bet to win so bad that hes going to convince himself that he is right and everyone else is wrong regardless of any opposing data or opinion. The body creates this tunnel vision to cope with the stress. Its all to boost a false sense of security.

I've heard this same argument before dozens of times in Tijuana Betting Parlors by SDSU college kids, so judging by his language, I would assume hes still a child, so don't bother arguing with him, you can't win.

[Seto]

You alluded to it earlier, but this Parexa guy sounds like he has a lot of scared money on the Spurs. Seen it hundreds of times before. He wants his own bet to win so bad that hes going to convince himself that he is right and everyone else is wrong regardless of any opposing data or opinion. The body creates this tunnel vision to cope with the stress. Its all to boost a false sense of security.

I've heard this same argument before dozens of times in Tijuana Betting Parlors by SDSU college kids, so judging by his language, I would assume hes still a child, so don't bother arguing with him, you can't win.

Agreed. Plus which this thread was more of a "don't overreact" thread than a "I'm on the Heat" thread.

[nj1035]

I've been following the Spurs all year, they will play even better tonight than they did in game one. When they smell blood, they go for the kill every time. You better hope Miami plays 2x as good as they did in game one.

[YouHave2outs]

such cool avatars itt

[GUNSHY]

Looking forward to bump this thread once Miami wins the series!!!

[Menses]

Spurs are playing for pride, spirit, Duncan, etc....there is a theme with them so they are a bit different than OKC who were playing the role of rookie team in the finals.....but I do see your point...but Spurs could very well go up 2-0...and it would be no shock....but heat could win next 2...and thats no shock too.....

[Seto]

Looking forward to bump this thread once Miami wins the series!!!

Long way to go but couldn't have asked for a better start. Ideally they steal game 3. Spurs are only 1 point faves

[ThaTopMoron]

going on the road for 3 @ 1-1 is not the same as going home for 3 in a row @ 1-1

[Seto]

going on the road for 3 @ 1-1 is not the same as going home for 3 in a row @ 1-1

Thread was made before the game. 1-0 to the other team with 3 home and 3 road games remaining for each team.

[ThaTopMoron]

Thread was made before the game. 1-0 to the other team with 3 home and 3 road games remaining for each team.

everyone knew Heat would win tonight

[Seto]

everyone knew Heat would win tonight

I didn't. Shame on me.

[ThaTopMoron]

I didn't. Shame on me.

who wins the series?

[Seto]

who wins the series?

I'm just saying nothing is 100% so I didn't put in my original post that the series was tied at 1. I had a small play on -13 +250 tonight, of course I expected them to win, that game and the series and that's the way it's playing out so far. We'll see.

[Sport_Fish]

Why can't heat play with this intensity all the time Could finish the series off in 5.

Not gonna happen though...I see them having a couple of more let downs and they'll probably finish in 6-7

[parexa]

You alluded to it earlier, but this Parexa guy sounds like he has a lot of scared money on the Spurs. Seen it hundreds of times before. He wants his own bet to win so bad that hes going to convince himself that he is right and everyone else is wrong regardless of any opposing data or opinion. The body creates this tunnel vision to cope with the stress. Its all to boost a false sense of security.

I've heard this same argument before dozens of times in Tijuana Betting Parlors by SDSU college kids, so judging by his language, I would assume hes still a child, so don't bother arguing with him, you can't win.

i can already tell you are some ethnic balding short guy. look in the mirror and tell me it aint true. everything happened just like it was supposed to. wade and bosh neither could score 20 points. those scrubs are done like i said before. huge games from chalmers and ray allen. spurs made too many turnovers. theres no answer to spurs's offense @ san antonio. san antonio will win 4-1 or 4-2.