Taking a Chance: The Bettors' Starting 5
Taking a Chance: The Bettors' Starting 5
Kobe Bryant and LeBron James are the first two names you hear when talk turns to putting together the best starting five the NBA has to offer, and there's no question that Kobe and LeBron are among the best. But what about assembling a team of less publicized players to just go out and beat the spread each night? Vince Carter would make that team, along with a few other names that might surprise you.
Does everybody root for the underdog? Don’t believe it. Sports fans want to see the best athletes performing at the highest level and laying waste to their hapless opponents. Casual bettors invariably lay money on the outcomes they want to see. That’s why sharp handicappers can find value in the betting odds for the underdogs - the ones who actually outperform expectations, that is.
If I were an NBA GM trying to assemble the best starting rotation purely against the spread, I would put these five men together on the floor. All I’d need from here to compete at a high level is a strong defensive bench.
PG: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
The former Kentucky Wildcat was a better than average point guard last year (15.74 PER) as a sophomore running a championship team - that’s nothing to sneeze at. Now in his third NBA season, Rondo is playing at an All-Star level (19.80 PER), but his skill set is perhaps too “subtle” for the casual fan to comprehend. Which is just another way of saying Rondo plays great defense.
SG: Vince Carter, New Jersey Nets
It would have been inconceivable to put Vinsanity on any “underrated” list just a few years ago. But Carter’s profile took a major hit when he went into Operation Shutdown in Toronto, then landed with a post-NBA Finals team in the Swamp. However, Carter is enjoying a revival paired with Devin Harris in the New Jersey backcourt. Carter has a 21.27 PER with 24.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per 40 minutes this season.
SF: Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
A lot of teams are kicking themselves for letting Granger fall to No. 17 at the 2005 NBA Draft. He’s the best player on the anonymous Pacers, posting outstanding numbers in his fourth season: 21.18 PER, 27.6 points/40, and 1.4 blocks per game at a tall 6-foot-8. A trip to the All-Star Game and a huge contract will help Granger get some recognition in 2009.
PF: Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards
Jamison should get a lifetime achievement award for Most Underrated Player. The 1998 draft-day trade that made Carter a Toronto Raptor and Jamison a Golden State Warrior; four lost seasons in Oakland; one season as a sixth-man in Dallas; four more years playing alongside Gilbert Arenas with the Wizards. The Witness Protection Program couldn’t have done a better job. Jamison is still a star-level player with 21.6 points and 9.9 rebounds/40, plus durability and leadership to boot.
C: Al Jefferson, Minnesota Timberwolves
Jefferson was the centerpiece of the multi-player deal that sent Kevin Garnett to the Celtics. Boston got a championship out of the deal, but the Wolves got the better end of the deal. Jefferson is an offensive beast in the low post, putting up 24.6 points and 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes as part of his 22.91 PER - third at his position this year, ahead of Houston’s Yao Ming (22.76 PER).
New Orleans at L.A. Lakers (-7½, 195½)
Tuesday, Jan 6, 10:30 p.m.(ET)
Or I could just pick the 2007-08 New Orleans Hornets (50-30-2 ATS). They had so much to offer handicappers: small-market anonymity, the low cachet of a 1988 expansion team, and a ton of underappreciated talent. It all started with point guard Chris Paul, who was passed over for the league MVP award last year in favor of Kobe Bryant despite having the better season on paper: 28.39 PER to Kobe’s 24.09. Both players are brilliant defenders, as well, so it’s hard to argue that Bryant essentially beat Paul in a popularity contest.
So why are the Hornets in the red in 2008-09 at 20-10 SU and a mere 12-16-2 ATS? Raised expectations play a large role, but Paul isn’t surrounded by the same consistent talent he was last year. Morris Peterson (15.8 minutes per game) is in steep decline, Peja Stojakovic (13.2 points per game) is at his least productive since his sophomore year in 1999-2000, and promising Julian Wright (15.48 PER last year) is getting zero minutes per game off the bench.
Bryant and the Lakers (27-5 SU, 16-16 ATS) should be able to spank this team Tuesday night at the Staples Center. There are some issues for L.A. fans to be concerned about, though. First and foremost is the absence of Jordan Farmar (knee), which leaves Derek Fisher pretty much on his own against Paul. Second is L.A.’s depth at small forward, where Luke Walton is out for the next couple of weeks with a foot injury. Otherwise, the Lakers have already taken a pair from New Orleans as road dogs this season.
Kobe Bryant and LeBron James are the first two names you hear when talk turns to putting together the best starting five the NBA has to offer, and there's no question that Kobe and LeBron are among the best. But what about assembling a team of less publicized players to just go out and beat the spread each night? Vince Carter would make that team, along with a few other names that might surprise you.
Does everybody root for the underdog? Don’t believe it. Sports fans want to see the best athletes performing at the highest level and laying waste to their hapless opponents. Casual bettors invariably lay money on the outcomes they want to see. That’s why sharp handicappers can find value in the betting odds for the underdogs - the ones who actually outperform expectations, that is.
If I were an NBA GM trying to assemble the best starting rotation purely against the spread, I would put these five men together on the floor. All I’d need from here to compete at a high level is a strong defensive bench.
PG: Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
The former Kentucky Wildcat was a better than average point guard last year (15.74 PER) as a sophomore running a championship team - that’s nothing to sneeze at. Now in his third NBA season, Rondo is playing at an All-Star level (19.80 PER), but his skill set is perhaps too “subtle” for the casual fan to comprehend. Which is just another way of saying Rondo plays great defense.
SG: Vince Carter, New Jersey Nets
It would have been inconceivable to put Vinsanity on any “underrated” list just a few years ago. But Carter’s profile took a major hit when he went into Operation Shutdown in Toronto, then landed with a post-NBA Finals team in the Swamp. However, Carter is enjoying a revival paired with Devin Harris in the New Jersey backcourt. Carter has a 21.27 PER with 24.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per 40 minutes this season.
SF: Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
A lot of teams are kicking themselves for letting Granger fall to No. 17 at the 2005 NBA Draft. He’s the best player on the anonymous Pacers, posting outstanding numbers in his fourth season: 21.18 PER, 27.6 points/40, and 1.4 blocks per game at a tall 6-foot-8. A trip to the All-Star Game and a huge contract will help Granger get some recognition in 2009.
PF: Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards
Jamison should get a lifetime achievement award for Most Underrated Player. The 1998 draft-day trade that made Carter a Toronto Raptor and Jamison a Golden State Warrior; four lost seasons in Oakland; one season as a sixth-man in Dallas; four more years playing alongside Gilbert Arenas with the Wizards. The Witness Protection Program couldn’t have done a better job. Jamison is still a star-level player with 21.6 points and 9.9 rebounds/40, plus durability and leadership to boot.
C: Al Jefferson, Minnesota Timberwolves
Jefferson was the centerpiece of the multi-player deal that sent Kevin Garnett to the Celtics. Boston got a championship out of the deal, but the Wolves got the better end of the deal. Jefferson is an offensive beast in the low post, putting up 24.6 points and 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes as part of his 22.91 PER - third at his position this year, ahead of Houston’s Yao Ming (22.76 PER).
New Orleans at L.A. Lakers (-7½, 195½)
Tuesday, Jan 6, 10:30 p.m.(ET)
Or I could just pick the 2007-08 New Orleans Hornets (50-30-2 ATS). They had so much to offer handicappers: small-market anonymity, the low cachet of a 1988 expansion team, and a ton of underappreciated talent. It all started with point guard Chris Paul, who was passed over for the league MVP award last year in favor of Kobe Bryant despite having the better season on paper: 28.39 PER to Kobe’s 24.09. Both players are brilliant defenders, as well, so it’s hard to argue that Bryant essentially beat Paul in a popularity contest.
So why are the Hornets in the red in 2008-09 at 20-10 SU and a mere 12-16-2 ATS? Raised expectations play a large role, but Paul isn’t surrounded by the same consistent talent he was last year. Morris Peterson (15.8 minutes per game) is in steep decline, Peja Stojakovic (13.2 points per game) is at his least productive since his sophomore year in 1999-2000, and promising Julian Wright (15.48 PER last year) is getting zero minutes per game off the bench.
Bryant and the Lakers (27-5 SU, 16-16 ATS) should be able to spank this team Tuesday night at the Staples Center. There are some issues for L.A. fans to be concerned about, though. First and foremost is the absence of Jordan Farmar (knee), which leaves Derek Fisher pretty much on his own against Paul. Second is L.A.’s depth at small forward, where Luke Walton is out for the next couple of weeks with a foot injury. Otherwise, the Lakers have already taken a pair from New Orleans as road dogs this season.
