NBA Betting: LeBron & Cavs got your number
NBA Betting: LeBron & Cavs got your number
While the Celtics and Lakers are getting a lot of attention for their fast starts, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are playing some of the best ball in the league with a 17-3 record. Just ask Cavs backers who have gone to the pay window 16 of the 20 times they've held Cleveland tickets. With eight straight wins and counting, including 11-0 at home, King James is truly ruling the courts.
Sometimes the public just can’t catch up. That’s exactly what’s happening in NBA betting when it comes to handicapping teams playing away from home. Road teams are 159-136-3 ATS to start the year, good enough for a solid 53.9% win rate according to market reports.
Doing even better are road underdogs, who are hitting at a shade over 55% with a 114-92-2 record against the number. While 55% is enough to put food on the table and then some betting any sport, it’s an especially worthy trend in professional hoops, where even the sharpest of lines are subject to factors beyond control.
Public players have yet to realize this, meaning there’s a ton of value on the board cherry picking the best road underdogs. It’s not quite like taking candy from a baby, but a quick look back at a few of the winners last weekend shows some pretty soft lines supported by square bettors.
The Philadelphia-Detroit game last Friday is a perfect example of a horrible line where any wise guy would take the road dog. The 76ers ended up winning the game 96-91 while getting eight points from the Pistons, which is way too much slack for a team that matches up with Detroit on paper and was expected to be even with Motown in the standings.
Philly has underachieved at 9-12 SU and ATS, but not so much that it should be 8-point road pups against Detroit, 11-8 SU and 9-10 ATS. They’re not Minnesota for God’s sake: +4 would have been more accurate.
Early outliers:
The first three teams have exceeded bettors’ expectations, while the bottom trio has done the opposite.
So what gives? For the Cavaliers, it’s a simply a case of being way better than last season. The Mo Williams move has paid off big time, LeBron is off the charts, and Cleveland is winning by an average margin of 13.3 points – tops in the league.
The Bucks have also made some serious money, partially because sharpshooter Michael Redd missed the first part of the season with a sprained ankle. He’s back, and the lines haven’t been as favorable, so expect Milwaukee to regress to the mean.
The same goes for Denver, although it’s amazing what some leadership on and off the floor will do for a team – especially one as talented as the Nuggets. Chauncey Billups has changed the way things are done in the Rocky Mountains. Hop on board before the value is gone.
Phoenix isn’t the team it used to be, public perception notwithstanding. It’s gotten to the point where even Shaq is telling Terry Porter to let the boys run the floor. It’s almost like he’s saying, “I’m no good anymore, coach. Why the hell is the offense designed around me?” You said it, Diesel.
Memphis and Minnesota should be closer to the .500 mark against the number by midseason. The Grizzlies (-6.6) and the Timberwolves (-6.2) aren’t bad enough to continue to lose so much money. It might actually be the prime time to start laying down on the basement dwellers.
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, Dec 9, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
It’s like the good ‘ol days in the Western Conference as the Spurs (11-8, 10-9 ATS) and Mavericks (11-8, 9-10 ATS) take the hardwood on Tuesday night.
San Antonio has won six of its last eight games while going 6-2 ATS for backers, while Dallas is on an even bigger roll. The Mavs have gone 7-3 against the number in going 9-1 SU in their last 10 contests, which is especially impressive considering Jose Juan Barea has replaced Josh Howard in the starting lineup.
Not by choice of course: Howard is day-to-day with a sore ankle, so Barea has stepped in to what amounts to a small-ball starting five for Dallas. Pretty sweet move for Mavs backers, as Barea has averaged 20.0 points per game in his two starts in the backcourt.
Dallas defeated San Antonio 98-81 on November 4, as the Mavs covered as 4½-point road dogs. Dirk Nowitzki dropped 30 points and had seven rebounds for Dallas, which has gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight matchups with San Antonio.
Tony Parker led the Spurs with 22 points, who played without Manu Ginobili in the defeat.
While the Celtics and Lakers are getting a lot of attention for their fast starts, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are playing some of the best ball in the league with a 17-3 record. Just ask Cavs backers who have gone to the pay window 16 of the 20 times they've held Cleveland tickets. With eight straight wins and counting, including 11-0 at home, King James is truly ruling the courts.
Sometimes the public just can’t catch up. That’s exactly what’s happening in NBA betting when it comes to handicapping teams playing away from home. Road teams are 159-136-3 ATS to start the year, good enough for a solid 53.9% win rate according to market reports.
Doing even better are road underdogs, who are hitting at a shade over 55% with a 114-92-2 record against the number. While 55% is enough to put food on the table and then some betting any sport, it’s an especially worthy trend in professional hoops, where even the sharpest of lines are subject to factors beyond control.
Public players have yet to realize this, meaning there’s a ton of value on the board cherry picking the best road underdogs. It’s not quite like taking candy from a baby, but a quick look back at a few of the winners last weekend shows some pretty soft lines supported by square bettors.
The Philadelphia-Detroit game last Friday is a perfect example of a horrible line where any wise guy would take the road dog. The 76ers ended up winning the game 96-91 while getting eight points from the Pistons, which is way too much slack for a team that matches up with Detroit on paper and was expected to be even with Motown in the standings.
Philly has underachieved at 9-12 SU and ATS, but not so much that it should be 8-point road pups against Detroit, 11-8 SU and 9-10 ATS. They’re not Minnesota for God’s sake: +4 would have been more accurate.
Early outliers:
- Cleveland (17-3, 16-4 ATS)
- Milwaukee (9-13, 15-6-1 ATS)
- Denver (14-7, 13-7-1 ATS)
- Phoenix (12-9, 8-13 ATS)
- Memphis (5-15, 7-13 ATS)
- Minnesota (4-15, 6-13 ATS)
The first three teams have exceeded bettors’ expectations, while the bottom trio has done the opposite.
So what gives? For the Cavaliers, it’s a simply a case of being way better than last season. The Mo Williams move has paid off big time, LeBron is off the charts, and Cleveland is winning by an average margin of 13.3 points – tops in the league.
The Bucks have also made some serious money, partially because sharpshooter Michael Redd missed the first part of the season with a sprained ankle. He’s back, and the lines haven’t been as favorable, so expect Milwaukee to regress to the mean.
The same goes for Denver, although it’s amazing what some leadership on and off the floor will do for a team – especially one as talented as the Nuggets. Chauncey Billups has changed the way things are done in the Rocky Mountains. Hop on board before the value is gone.
Phoenix isn’t the team it used to be, public perception notwithstanding. It’s gotten to the point where even Shaq is telling Terry Porter to let the boys run the floor. It’s almost like he’s saying, “I’m no good anymore, coach. Why the hell is the offense designed around me?” You said it, Diesel.
Memphis and Minnesota should be closer to the .500 mark against the number by midseason. The Grizzlies (-6.6) and the Timberwolves (-6.2) aren’t bad enough to continue to lose so much money. It might actually be the prime time to start laying down on the basement dwellers.
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, Dec 9, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
It’s like the good ‘ol days in the Western Conference as the Spurs (11-8, 10-9 ATS) and Mavericks (11-8, 9-10 ATS) take the hardwood on Tuesday night.
San Antonio has won six of its last eight games while going 6-2 ATS for backers, while Dallas is on an even bigger roll. The Mavs have gone 7-3 against the number in going 9-1 SU in their last 10 contests, which is especially impressive considering Jose Juan Barea has replaced Josh Howard in the starting lineup.
Not by choice of course: Howard is day-to-day with a sore ankle, so Barea has stepped in to what amounts to a small-ball starting five for Dallas. Pretty sweet move for Mavs backers, as Barea has averaged 20.0 points per game in his two starts in the backcourt.
Dallas defeated San Antonio 98-81 on November 4, as the Mavs covered as 4½-point road dogs. Dirk Nowitzki dropped 30 points and had seven rebounds for Dallas, which has gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight matchups with San Antonio.
Tony Parker led the Spurs with 22 points, who played without Manu Ginobili in the defeat.