Finally Found Something I'm OK At - 01/05/13 Picks

brainfreeze0 · 01-05-13, 01:54 AM

I'm not big on totalsbecause you can never take into account bad nights and teams taking nights off. Add to that you have to account for both teams playing it makes it harder. I play them on occasion in the right spot. Unfortunately the only team total on another parlay cost me my 4 game parlay because one of the teams took the night off. That being said, I like the first 3 but the 4th total seems like a coin flip. Them being on a b2b should help it but still... GL

KingDF · 01-05-13, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by brainfreeze0

I'm not big on totalsbecause you can never take into account bad nights and teams taking nights off. Add to that you have to account for both teams playing it makes it harder. I play them on occasion in the right spot. Unfortunately the only team total on another parlay cost me my 4 game parlay because one of the teams took the night off. That being said, I like the first 3 but the 4th total seems like a coin flip. Them being on a b2b should help it but still... GL

I agree with you 100% about that last pick. I'm still going to put it in though. I'll still come out on top if I can keep my 75% win rate with the o/u. I'm only putting in separate bets this time. I doubt I put in a parlay.

KingDF · 01-05-13, 02:08 AM

The way I see it, when you bet a spread, there are 4 possibilities:

1. Your team covers the spread. (win)
2. Your team wins but doesn't cover. (lose)
3. Your team ties the spread. (lose)
4. Your team loses outright. (lose)

1 out of 4 is a 25% chance of winning each bet. However, on the o/u there are three possibilities without the half point.

1. Win. (win)
2. Tie. (lose)
3. Lose. (lose)

1 out of 3 is a 33% chance of winning each bet. With the extra half point there are only two possibilities:

1. Win
2. Lose

1 out of 2 is a 50% chance of winning each bet. Without knowing a single thing about betting or sports, I could probably pick 10 o/u and get 50% of them right (law of averages). So I'm thinking that if I concentrate on just a few games with the o/u I might get pretty good at it.

SmoovCruz · 01-05-13, 02:10 AM

tie is push (money back) if you want to keep track of your bets

https://www.wagerminds.com

KingDF · 01-05-13, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by SmoovCruz

tie is push (money back) if you want to keep track of your bets
www.wagerminds.com

You're right. I was thinking about the parlay cards out here. I don't play online and I've never pushed. With that said, after you re-calculate the odds, the o/u with the half point still has the best odd of winning. 50%

SmoovCruz · 01-05-13, 02:18 AM

its not real money just to keep track of your bets

lilb_swag · 01-05-13, 02:19 AM

For beginners, rule #1 no parlays. Make sure you do your research when choosing over/under also.

KingDF · 01-05-13, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by lilb_swag

For beginners, rule #1 no parlays. Make sure you do your research when choosing over/under also.

Rule #1 is a good one because parlays have been killing me. I'll definitely do my research.

The Architect · 01-05-13, 02:27 AM

I bet mostly 2H Over/Unders. i think its easier to pick a total after seeing how the game has been played in the 1H. You're simply just giving yourself more information to base your bet on. Just my take, I hardly take sides anymore either. Not because I was terrible at it, just I see more value and better percentages in wagering on a total. Its easier to tell if teams are going to make or miss their baskets (in general) rather than who has more effort, betting coached on any particular night. just my two cents

Mocknroll · 01-05-13, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by KingDF

The way I see it, when you bet a spread, there are 4 possibilities:

1. Your team covers the spread. (win)
2. Your team wins but doesn't cover. (lose)
3. Your team ties the spread. (lose)
4. Your team loses outright. (lose)

1 out of 4 is a 25% chance of winning each bet. However, on the o/u there are three possibilities without the half point.

1. Win. (win)
2. Tie. (lose)
3. Lose. (lose)

1 out of 3 is a 33% chance of winning each bet. With the extra half point there are only two possibilities:

1. Win
2. Lose

1 out of 2 is a 50% chance of winning each bet. Without knowing a single thing about betting or sports, I could probably pick 10 o/u and get 50% of them right (law of averages). So I'm thinking that if I concentrate on just a few games with the o/u I might get pretty good at it.

There are 2 possibilities either betting totals or spreads. The fact that you would consider your team winning straight up but not covering as some sort of result tells me that you need to look at this in a different light.

If you bet totals it either goes over or under, rarely pushing because books usually throw the hook.

When you bet spreads, your team either wins or loses against the spread thats it, and again, you can push without the hook. You will have much more success capping if you get rid of your ML mentality.

I've seen most of your picks, and you're mainly taking heavy ML faves ATS. I think what you're doing is thinking "OKC are going to win this game" (which more often than not will happen), and then you're talking yourself into them covering. You should be capping based on the spread and nothing else.

From what I've seen, if you had taken all of the dogs instead of faves ATS in your picks you would be well ahead.

KingDF · 01-05-13, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by Mocknroll

There are 2 possibilities either betting totals or spreads. The fact that you would consider your team winning straight up but not covering as some sort of result tells me that you need to look at this in a different light.

If you bet totals it either goes over or under, rarely pushing because books usually throw the hook.

When you bet spreads, your team either wins or loses against the spread thats it, and again, you can push without the hook. You will have much more success capping if you get rid of your ML mentality.

I've seen most of your picks, and you're mainly taking heavy ML faves ATS. I think what you're doing is thinking "OKC are going to win this game" (which more often than not will happen), and then you're talking yourself into them covering. You should be capping based on the spread and nothing else.

From what I've seen, if you had taken all of the dogs instead of faves ATS in your picks you would be well ahead.

Actually, I don't post all of my bets online. I don't always take ML favorites. Today I took the Rockets at +1. Also took Blazers at +9. I bet on who I think will cover the spread, but my problem has been teams that I think will cover, not covering. Such as the Nets vs. Wizards game tonight. I thought the Nets could cover 5.5, but they barely won and failed to cover.

Tomorrow I might take Golden State and they aren't the ML favorite.

KingDF · 01-05-13, 02:49 AM

Oh and yesterday I bet the Chicago St. +31.5 vs. UNLV... and Chicago St. covered. So again, I don't always take the ML favorite.

nicktran808 · 01-05-13, 04:16 AM

I've been getting murdered with over/unders so far in 2013. I've been mostly doing 1H totals, crunching the numbers from their past games and looking for trends. Going into 2013, I saw some other guys do it to great success--he was at around 80% and said it was all in the averages, which was what I was doing.

My projected/predicted 1H totals versus actual percentage is atrocious though, especially after today. I'm sitting at around 33% projected for all picks, but I only bet on a handful (and lose about 2/3 of them anyways).

However, I do like your first 3. I haven't crunched the numbers yet for tomorrow but everything makes logical sense w/o the numbers right now on those three picks.

KingDF · 01-05-13, 10:24 AM

I'm off to put in my bets. I'll post when I get back.

KingDF · 01-05-13, 01:21 PM

OK, my bets are in and I've updated the first post to show what I actually bet. Feel free to chime in.

KingDF · 01-05-13, 09:27 PM

Pacers prediction correct.

underal · 01-05-13, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by KingDF

The way I see it, when you bet a spread, there are 4 possibilities:

1. Your team covers the spread. (win)
2. Your team wins but doesn't cover. (lose)
3. Your team ties the spread. (lose)
4. Your team loses outright. (lose)

1 out of 4 is a 25% chance of winning each bet. However, on the o/u there are three possibilities without the half point.

1. Win. (win)
2. Tie. (lose)
3. Lose. (lose)

1 out of 3 is a 33% chance of winning each bet. With the extra half point there are only two possibilities:

1. Win
2. Lose

1 out of 2 is a 50% chance of winning each bet. Without knowing a single thing about betting or sports, I could probably pick 10 o/u and get 50% of them right (law of averages). So I'm thinking that if I concentrate on just a few games with the o/u I might get pretty good at it.

there are 2 possibilities
1.you will be struck by lightning tomorrow
2.you will not be struck by lightning tomorrow
so there is a 50% chance of you being struck by lightning tomorrow.
you need to learn a bit about probability before trying to beat the books.

KingDF · 01-06-13, 08:04 AM

Originally posted by underal

there are 2 possibilities
1.you will be struck by lightning tomorrow
2.you will not be struck by lightning tomorrow
so there is a 50% chance of you being struck by lightning tomorrow.
you need to learn a bit about probability before trying to beat the books.

If you actually knew anything about probability, you wouldn't have just made yourself sound like a complete idiot.

KingDF · 01-06-13, 08:10 AM

I can't edit the first post, but my outcomes on the o/u were:

Original Picks: 50% o/u - One missed by 1 point so I'm not upset with those results.
Actual Bets: 33% o/u - I chickened out on making the Pacers bet.

As far as the spreads: 0% - I freely admit that I'm not good at spread picking.

Based on the above results I'll be sticking to the o/u when betting from now on and cutting out all parlays.

riskyProps · 01-06-13, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by KingDF

I can't edit the first post, but my outcomes on the o/u were:

Original Picks: 50% o/u - One missed by 1 point so I'm not upset with those results.
Actual Bets: 33% o/u - I chickened out on making the Pacers bet.

As far as the spreads: 0% - I freely admit that I'm not good at spread picking.

Based on the above results I'll be sticking to the o/u when betting from now on and cutting out all parlays.

If you talk to a lot of big time winning sportsbook bettors, you will find most never play any parlays at all. I'm not a big winner cause parlays are my guilty pleasure.

Zii · 01-06-13, 09:49 AM

And you should learn more about SARCASM!

KingDF · 01-06-13, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by Zii

And you should learn more about SARCASM!

Sarcasm doesn't really come across too well ONLINE... I know because I'm extremely sarcastic. Should I assume you have multiple identities? LOL

KingDF · 01-06-13, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by riskyProps

If you talk to a lot of big time winning sportsbook bettors, you will find most never play any parlays at all. I'm not a big winner cause parlays are my guilty pleasure.

Same here. Today I only put in 1 parlay ticket, which is way down from my usual 10x $2 parlay tickets.