I found something that is so freaking amazing for figuring out the best bet on card

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  • 1brokegirl
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-19-12
    • 150

    #1
    I found something that is so freaking amazing for figuring out the best bet on card
    You will have a boner or super orgasmic experience after seeing this magic formula for NBA

    but i think it can be used for NFL also.


    NBA Betting System

    A fairly old NBA betting system has made a comeback, although with an addition, essentially making it a two-part system. The reported record was over 60-percent last season, so it appears to be working as well as ever.

    The First System


    The first system is fairly easy to use, although it may sound a bit complicated the first time you read it. It will soon become second nature, however, so don't worry.

    The first step is to take the winning percentage of each team, which is easily found online or in any newspaper, and subtract the lower winning percentage from the higher percentage.


    For example, if the Celtics have a winning percentage of .750 and the Atlanta Hawks have a winning percentage of .450, the difference is .300. We will drop the decimals for ease of use with the system.


    The second step is to divide the percentage differential by 20. In this case, we will divide 300 by 20 for a total of 15, which would mean our rough line on the game is Boston by 15 points.


    Allow three points to the home team, so Boston would be -12 on the road or -18 if the Celtics are at home.


    Subtract the point spread from the favored team and if the difference is 10 or greater, you would have a play. So, if the Celtics were favored by 2.0 points or less, or were the underdog on the road, they would be a play,

    as 12 - 2 = 10. If the Celtics were at home, they could be favored by as much as 8 points to be a play, as 18 - 8 = 10.



    If the Celtics were favored by three or more on the road, or nine or more at home, there would be no play, as the difference is less than 10 points.


    There are several qualifiers, such as the team cannot be in the second of back-to-back games, cannot have an injured starter, and no games with a point spread of 10 or more points is considered.


    One more example:
    If the Pistons have a winning percentage of .800 and the Jazz have a winning percentage of .400, the difference is 400, which would make the Pistons a 20-point favorite. At home, Detroit would be favored by 23, while the Pistons would be a 17-point favorite on the road.


    Detroit would be a play at home if it was favored by 9.5 points or less, and would be a play on the road if it was favored by 7.5 points or less.

    Part Two


    The second part of the system is a bit more complicated, as it involves taking the underdog when they go from a negative situation to a positive based on the line.

    The first part of the system is done in the exact same manner as the first example, in that you take the winning percentages and use the divider of 20.

    For example, if the 76ers have a winning percentage of .400 and the Clippers have a winning percentage of .320, the 76ers would be rough favorites of four points.


    If the 76ers are at home, Philadelphia is favored by seven (+7) and one the road the 76ers are favored by one (+1). From the Clippers' perspective, they are seven-point underdogs on the road, which is (-7), while at home, the Clippers are one-point underdogs (-1).


    When you factor in the point spread, the Clippers have the possibility of going from a negative figure to a positive figure and could possibly be a play.


    If the 76ers are favored by 8 to 9.5 points at home, the Clippers would be the play, as they go from (-7) to (+1). (Remember we exclude games where the point spread is 10 points or more.)


    If the 76ers are favored by 2 to 9.5 points on the road, the Clippers would again be the play, as they will go from (-1) to (+1) or greater.


    Once again, the same qualifiers of back-to-back games being tossed out and staying away from teams with an injured starter.


    As with all systems, just because something has worked in the past does not mean it will work in the future. But the system is certainly something that should be tracked over the course of the season.

    OK boys and girls help me figure out how to use for nfl because with the formulas i got plus this i guarantee a win % in 90's for all of us and the bestest forking christmas and new year ever ever ever

    here's the link to article http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/b...abetsystem.htm

    btw check out this guy on u tube mrbookiekiller
  • statdude
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-11-12
    • 117

    #2
    Lolol
    Comment
    • cyrusii
      SBR Hustler
      • 11-05-12
      • 60

      #3
      I feel like an idiot for reading half way through this BS.
      Comment
      • HeeeHAWWWW
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 06-13-08
        • 5487

        #4
        Comment
        • Peregrine Stoop
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-23-09
          • 869

          #5
          thought there are no systems in the think tank
          Comment
          • joemfbishop
            SBR Hustler
            • 11-08-12
            • 97

            #6
            uhhhhhhhhhh duuuuuuhhhh i read it all the way through and what i dont get is why this would be a good system to use? what do the numbers that you come up with have to do with a team winng?
            Comment
            • samdapatriotsfan
              SBR MVP
              • 10-10-08
              • 1585

              #7
              Comment
              • Peregrine Stoop
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-23-09
                • 869

                #8
                how has this "system" done the past 5 years?
                Comment
                • Sawyer
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 06-01-09
                  • 7761

                  #9
                  Comment
                  • LtDementia
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 08-22-10
                    • 203

                    #10
                    Here's another method that uses team win% to generate a a win probability - It might have a little more credibility.



                    Intro:

                    WARNING: Math post.

                    PFR user Brad emailed over the weekend with an interesting question:
                    "Wondering if you've ever tracked or how it would be possible to find records vs. records statistics....for instance a 3-4 team vs. a 5-2 team...which record wins how often? but for every record matchup in every week."
                    That's a cool concept, and one that I could answer historically with a query when I get the time. But in the meantime, here's what I believe is a valid way to estimate that probability...
                    1. Add eleven games of .500 ball to the team's current record (at any point in the season). So if a team is 3-4, their "true" wpct talent is (3 + 5.5) / (7 + 11) = .472. If their opponent is 5-2, it would be (5 + 5.5) / (7 + 11) = .583.
                    2. Use the following equation to estimate the probability of Team A beating Team B at a neutral site:
                      p(Team A Win) = Team A true_win% *(1 - Team B true_win%)/(Team A true_win% * (1 - Team B true_win%) + (1 - Team A true_win%) * Team B true_win%)
                    3. You can even factor in home-field advantage like so:
                      p(Team A Win) = ((Team A true_win%) * (1 - Team B true_win%) * HFA)/((Team A true_win%) * (1 - Team B true_win%) * HFA +(1 - Team A true_win%) * (Team B true_win%) * (1 - HFA))
                      In the NFL, home teams win roughly 57% of the time, so HFA = 0.57.

                    This means in Brad's hypothetical matchup of a 5-2 team vs. a 3-4 team, we would expect the 5-2 team to win .583 *(1 - .472)/(.583 * (1 - .472) + (1 - .583) * .472) = 61% of the time at a neutral site.
                    Comment
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