o/u point value calculations

[oddtodd]

William Hill offers large variations on the total for NBA games, normally 5 and 10 pts higher/lower then the regular line. Normally, they pay +275 (3.75) for the ten pt variations. Do these have value? for example, a game with an o/u at 200 would pay +275 for taking over 210.

Can we calculate each point or half point around the total uniformly for variations this large? is there an exponential/logistic formula of sometime that someone has already created for this?

[byronbb]

Usually they are juiced to hell. A NBA total point is worth around 2.25% although they do vary 198 and 201 worth less than 2%.
If a game is at 200, 210 would be 10points or 22.5% harder to win. 50%-22.5% = 27.5% or +262. At first glance you seem to have a massive edge but you may be confusing decimals with US odds because 3.75 does not equal +375, it equals +275. Moreover on WH a game at 199.5 tonight moved 10 points to 209.5 has a price of 3.4 or +240 not +375.

The thing with WH is often they do not adjust their alternates when there has been big line movements. Try SBRS half point calculator:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

[oddtodd]

here's an example from pinnacle:

Denver vs Gstate

o/u .......over/under p(over) difference in %

199.5... 1.8/2.1 ............53.85
200.0 ...1.84/2.05 .........52.7..... -1.05
200.5 ...1.885/2.01....... .51.6 ....-1.1
201.0 ...1.935/1.971..... .50.46....-1.14
201.5... 1.971/1.917...... 49.25 ...-1.21
202.0....2.01/1.87 ..........48.2.... -1.05
202.5... 2.05/1.826.........47.1 .....-1.1

so.. I don't know what their half pt calculator is, but it seems to change the % chance of winning by about 1.15 for each half point. So to get to 211 I would have to do 47.1 + 17 *( -1.15) = 27.55%
17 = the number of half points from 202.5 to 211. then 27.55 * 3.75 *the odds = 103.55 meaning it is a 3.5% edge

[oddtodd]

Usually they are juiced to hell. A NBA total point is worth around 2.25% although they do vary 198 and 201 worth less than 2%.
If a game is at 200, 210 would be 10points or 22.5% harder to win. 50%-22.5% = 27.5% or +262. At first glance you seem to have a massive edge but you may be confusing decimals with US odds because 3.75 does not equal +375, it equals +275. Moreover on WH a game at 199.5 tonight moved 10 points to 209.5 has a price of 3.4 or +240 not +375.

The thing with WH is often they do not adjust their alternates when there has been big line movements. Try SBRS half point calculator:
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...nt-calculator/

oops my bad with the am to dec conversion.
Point calc is good too, but only works for the a 2.5 pt range around the total. Im wondering if this 2.25% approximation starts to became inappropriate, like maybe the % adjustment starts to shrink around the outliers, folllowing a normal distribution perhaps. because clearly it can't be wholly uniform. We know that over 230 is possible but this method would say there is a -% chance of it occuring

[oddtodd]

What is the distribution of points around the expected mean of 200?? thanks boys

[byronbb]

I don't have an answer but look at things like 10 point teasers in basketball. 5Dimes charges -440 on a 2 teamer getting 10 points. WH is changing 1.3 per bet for the same. 1.3*1.3 = 1.69 = -145 = free money but I must be doing something wrong.