nba chase 12/13

[Grinder12000]

Dang - hate this game also - I think we won't win this line until game 3 (C bet) on the road in NO 11/20/12. Winning on the road takes a lot out out a team and back to back road games sucks. THEN the go home after a 3 game road trip and relax and lose again!! We won't win this one until the "C" game.

BUT !!! got NYK +6

BTW - NYK has played the hardest schedule in the NBA so far and Memphis has played the 2nd hardest (using RPI - Ratings Percentage Index).

New Yorks average opponent has a winning % of .653 and their opponents average opponent winning % is .559 so they have been playing so tough teams!

[Maleku]

Dang - hate this game also - I think we won't win this line until game 3 (C bet) on the road in NO 11/20/12. Winning on the road takes a lot out out a team and back to back road games sucks. THEN the go home after a 3 game road trip and relax and lose again!! We won't win this one until the "C" game.

BUT !!! got NYK +6

BTW - NYK has played the hardest schedule in the NBA so far and Memphis has played the 2nd hardest (using RPI - Ratings Percentage Index).

New Yorks average opponent has a winning % of .653 and their opponents average opponent winning % is .559 so they have been playing so tough teams!

Would you please STFU. People come here for Stiflers systems picks... not Grinders Random Thoughts of the day.

I think others would agree that you do nothing but take the thread off track.... last week you were randomly going on about some NFL capper.

Also noticed that you are yet to contribute a single point to Stifler for his efforts.

[swankk]

Would you please STFU. People come here for Stiflers systems picks... not Grinders Random Thoughts of the day.

I think others would agree that you do nothing but take the thread off track.... last week you were randomly going on about some NFL capper.

Also noticed that you are yet to contribute a single point to Stifler for his efforts.

+1
Give it a break pal...

[Grinder12000]

LOL - you guys are funny All swankk does is complain about other peoples stupid posts and all Meleku does . . . well, his posts are normally one meaningless line (his other posts on other forums are normally whines and complaints also).

SO - since you are not really interested in BASKETBALL or the NBA - fine (nevermind that I have been right or anything). I'll let the children have their play time at the children's table.

Stifler - sorry for ruining your thread with basketball and schedule information.

[Nino7]

fade TOR -> B bet on BOS with 2.31 u
fade BOS -> A bet on TOR with 1.1 u

carefull, its too late to do some maths, but i dont think u will come out winning 1u each on every series when ur just betting the 1.21 units on Boston. I could be wrong here, its just my first impression when i was reading this. Thats why i always play it exactly the way it should be played. Means risking 2,31 on Tor fade (B Bet) and also risking 1,1u on Bos fade.

Well,if BOS wins (1,21 risked) u win 1,1 unit on TOR fade and you'll bet 2,2 to win 2 on BOS fade B game.once the BOS fade serie is won,your up 0 unit on TOR fade (-1,1+1,1) and up 2 units on BOS fade.TOTAL won = 2 units

Now,if BOS loses (1,21 risked) you'll be down 1,21 on TOR fade and you'll bet 4,741 to win 4,31 on TOR fade C game.once the TOR fade serie is won your up 2 units on TOR fade (-1,1-1,21+4,31) and 0 unit on BOS fade.TOTAL won = 2 units

[Grinder12000]

If anybody is curious this is what the Knicks have done vs. the spread since the beginning of 2009. Sort of a slow day so if you want to play with streaks . . . .

S1

29-0 with two "D" games
18-0 (A) games
6-0 you will win on the (B) game
3-0 win on the (C) game
2-0 win on the (D) game

Loss (+5.0)

Loss (+1.5)

Loss (+2.5)

Won (+3.0) 1-0

Loss (-4.5)

Loss (+8.0)

Loss (+4.0)

Won (+5.5) 2-0

Loss (+5.5)

Loss (-4.0)

Won (+6.0)

Won (+2.5)

Won (+10.0)

Won (+14.5) 3-0

Loss (+4.0)

Won (+12.5)

Loss (+6.5)

Won (+7.5)

Loss (+12.5)

Won (+10.5)

Won (-4.0)

Won (+3.5)

Won (+6.5) 4-0

Loss (+5.0)

Loss (+3.0)

Won (-2.0)

Loss (-4.5)

Won (-6.0)

Loss (-2.0)

Loss (+3.0)

Won (+5.0)

Loss (-2.5)

Won (+11.0)

Won (-9.5)

Won (-3.5)

Loss (+6.5)

Loss (+5.0)

Won (+2.5) 5-0 (C)

Loss (-2.0)

Loss (+1.0)

Won (-6.5)

Loss (+6.0)

Loss (+1.5)

Won (-6.0)

Loss (-3.5)

Loss (-1.0)

Loss (+2.0)

Won (-5.5) 6-0

Loss (-2.0)

Won (+12.5)

Loss (-5.0)

Loss (+6.5)

Loss (-2.0)

Won (+5.0)

Loss (-1.5) 7-0 (B)

Won (+10.0)

Won (+2.0)

Loss (+2.5)

Loss (+11.0)

Won (-4.5)

Won (+7.0)

Loss (-8.5)

Won (+7.0)

Loss (+9.5)

Won (+7.5)

Won (+10.5)

Won (+3.0)

Loss (+9.0)

Won (-2.5) 8-0 (B)

Loss (+3.5)

Won (+7.0)

Loss (+10.5)

Won (+11.0)

Loss (+10.5)

Loss (+5.0)

Won (-1.5)

Won (+7.5)

Won (+11.0)

Loss (+11.5)

Loss (+6.0)

Won (-3.5) 9-0 (C)

Loss (+7.5)

Won (-1.0)

Won (+9.5)

Push (+5.0)

Won (+7.0)

Won (-6.0) 10-0

Loss (-7.5)

Loss (+5.0)

Loss (-3.0)

Loss (-4.0) 11-0

Loss (-2.5)

Won (+7.5)

Won (+4.0)

Won (+4.5)

Won (+1.0) 12-0

Push (-3.0)

Won (+5.5)

Loss (-1.0)

Won (+2.0)

Won (-4.5)

Won (+6.0)

Won (+1.5) 13-0

Won (-6.5)

Loss (-6.5)

Won (-3.0)

Won (-1.5)

Won (+4.5)

Loss (+5.0)

Loss (-5.5)

Won (-1.0) 14-0 (C)

Won (-2.0)

Won (+8.5)

Loss (+7.5)

Loss (-7.0)

Won (+5.5)

Won (+2.5)

Loss (+6.5)

Won (+4.5)

Won (+7.0)

Loss (-9.0)

Loss (-6.5)

Loss (+2.0)

Push (+9.0)

Won (+8.0)

Won (-7.5)

Won (+3.5)

Loss (+7.0) 15-0 (D)

Won (-6.5)

Loss (-2.0)

Won (+4.5)

Won (-4.5)

Loss (-7.5)

Loss (+3.5)

Won (-1.0)

Won (-2.5)

Loss (-7.0)

Loss (-8.5)

Won (+9.5)

Won (+7.5)

Won (-2.5)

Loss (-12.5)

Won (+3.5) 16-0 (B)

Won (-6.5)

Won (+4.0)

Loss (+5.0)

Loss (-9.0)

Loss (-5.0)

Won (-5.0)

Loss (-4.0) 17-0 (B)

Loss (-2.5)

Loss (+2.0)

Loss (+1.0)

Loss (-7.0) 18-0

Loss (-4.5)

Won (+2.5)

Loss (-8.5)

Won (-12.0)

Won (-9.0)

Won (+5.5)

Won (-5.0) 19-0

Won (+2.5)

Loss (+7.0)

Loss (+3.0)

Won (+6.0)

Won (+6.0)

Loss (-3.5)

Loss (+3.5)

Loss (-5.0)

Loss (-5.5) 20-0

Loss (+4.0)

Won (-1.0)

Loss (-8.5)

Loss (-11.5)

Loss (-6.0)

Won (-4.0)

Loss (-10.5) 21-0 (B)

Won (-3.5)

Loss (+4.5)

Loss (+11.0)

Loss (+2.0)

Loss (-8.0) 22-0

Loss (-4.5)

Loss (+2.0)

Won (-5.5)

Loss (-4.0)

Won (+11.5)

Loss (+7.0)

Won (-9.5)

Won (+3.5)

Won (+6.5)

Won (-6.5) 23-0

Won (-3.0)

Won (+1.5)

Won (+4.5)

Won (+6.5) 24-0

Loss (-4.5)

Won (-6.0)

Loss (-9.5)

Won (+2.0)

Loss (-8.5)

Won (-7.0)

Loss (+10.0)

Won (-10.0)

Loss (+1.0)

Loss (+2.5)

Loss (+7.5)

Loss (-1.5) 25-0

Loss (-2.5)

Won (+8.5)

Won (-6.0)

Won (-4.5)

Won (+4.0) 26-0

Won (-8.5)

Won (+4.0)

Loss (-5.0)

Won (-11.0) 27-0 (B)

Won (-4.5)

Won (+1.5)

Loss (+3.0)

Won (-11.0)

Loss (+6.0)

Won (+2.5)

Won (+3.0)

Loss (+7.0)

Won (+4.5)

Won (-10.5)

Loss (+3.0)

Won (-3.5)

Won (-8.0)

Loss (-10.0)

Won (+2.5)

Won (-5.0)

Won (-5.5)

Loss (+9.0)

Loss (+9.5)

Loss (+5.5)

Won (+7.5) 28-0 (D)

Loss (+11.5)

Won (+6.0)

Won (-3.5)

Won (+2.5)

Won (-6.5) 29-0

Won (-7.0)

Won (+5.5)

[thelimit0310]

Dude... You need to put that in a better format. Besides, a system play is a system play.

[swankk]

Dude... You need to put that in a better format. Besides, a system play is a system play.

Leave him alone, he's special

[DustyDiamond]

If you have -105 or -108 but bet to win same way stiflier does, then just consider it extra winnings.

J.M. What do you think is the best way to Labby this system? Play it like on3's baseball system with four lines of 4 for each system?

[rcyoder]

hello where did u get that back testing at?

[Grinder12000]

swankk you are such a ........ but you never add content - tell me - what percentage of the time will this system play a (D) game. Any clue? Don't you ever wonder about it? or does thinking give you a headache.

Well - for the Knicks

The (D) games comes up 6% of the time since Opening day 2009.

The system will go to the (C) game 10% Come on man lighten up and stop spewing hatred. Maybe you could add some content at some point.

B games 20%. Seriously I find information interesting and actually useful!!!

A games 62% of the time.

Don't you ever wonder about the numbers behind the numbers!!

[CrazyCarl]

swankk you are such a ........ but you never add content - tell me - what percentage of the time will this system play a (D) game. Any clue? Don't you ever wonder about it? or does thinking give you a headache.

Well - for the Knicks

The (D) games comes up 6% of the time since Opening day 2009.

The system will go to the (C) game 10% Come on man lighten up and stop spewing hatred. Maybe you could add some content at some point.

B games 20%. Seriously I find information interesting and actually useful!!!

A games 62% of the time.

Don't you ever wonder about the numbers behind the numbers!!

A games come up 62% of the time?

What? Lol.

[Nino7]

A games come up 62% of the time?

What? Lol.

lol

[swankk]

And now your quizzing me
This is foolish do what you want I don't care

[Grinder12000]

CrazyCarl - did you misquote on purpose (which would be childish) or just can't read.

I mean (A) games win 62% of the time. 38% of the time the series moves to the next level. Is that really so hard to understand? Should I draw you a picture?

This is foolish do what you want I don't care

First smart thing you have said.

Guys - what is the problem. Aren't you curious at all about HOW the system works? Seriously.

OK - I'll stop talking about actual handicapping but I thought that MAYBE if we saw how the system worked maybe I could be let into your little frat boy club.

Let's say we get two (D) games next week.. IS it normal? Just how many super stressful (D) games do we have to go through. At least now we have some semblance of a clue.

Be nice and I'll be nice and we can all get along and make a ton of money this year on this system. Isn't that the goal? But if you want to bicker and insult for the next 6 months it's going to be a long long season.

OK - I got excited and posted actual handicapping stuff, it's what I do. I've been doing this for 45 years (before computers) so I do have SOME knowledge I have acquired over the time. I'll shut up now.

Stif - I apologize.

[J.M. Disciple]

Dusty if i were labbying this, I would just run 1 line. Its all based on -110 odds and each level hits at a high rate. Say you only have 4 #s on your line but he has 3 games (2#s per game) Just add another 1 unit to your line creating 6#s (.5 - .5 - .5 - .5 - .5 - .5) and bet each game the same amount. You could also do two lines. 1 for A&B and 1 for C&D. Any more lines then two is unnecessary. Best advice is to just run 1 line.

GOod luck

[J.M. Disciple]

I mean (A) games win 62% of the time. 38% of the time the series moves to the next level. Is that really so hard to understand? Should I draw you a picture? Or are you guys just being anal.

overall winning percentages:
record: 1308-23
A Bet: 731-600 (54,92%)
B Bet: 344-256 (57,33%)
C Bet: 166-90 (64,84%)
D Bet: 67-23 (74,44%)

Not trying to give you shit, but its 54%. Percentages from STiff himself.

You were close on the D bet though. 6.7% of the time it goes to D. 90 times out of 1331 series.

[CrazyCarl]

I mean (A) games win 62% of the time. 38% of the time the series moves to the next level. Is that really so hard to understand? Should I draw you a picture? Or are you guys just being anal.

So, B games only win 20% of the time?

You do understand that changing the format completely (when they go to a certain level of betting vs the percentage they win on a certain level of betting) without even mentioning it is very unclear, right?

[Grinder12000]

J.M. Disciple - I did not see that - awesome!! Or at the time I did not comprehend it.

Surprising how high the % is on that (D) bet - you could do actual wagering on it with extra money. 74% ATS is awesome good and a smart dude would double his bet.

In fact (C) and (D) you could put extra on the wager. 233-113 = 67% is dang good and 400+ games is above standard deviation.


oops - sorry!

shut up me!

[J.M. Disciple]

So, B games only win 20% of the time?

You do understand that changing the format completely (when they go to a certain level of betting vs the percentage they win on a certain level of betting) without even mentioning it is very unclear, right?

What he is trying to say is that, it only goes to C or D 19.23% of the time. 256 (B's losses) / 1331 (total series)

His other math would be out of all the series it is won at level B 25% of the time.

[CrazyCarl]

What he is trying to say is that, it only goes to C or D 19.23% of the time. 256 (B's losses) / 1331 (total series)

His other math would be out of all the series it is won at level B 25% of the time.

I figured that's what he meant after getting his response, but it was still formatted very poorly to illustrate that point

[tr4sh]

Hmm, the recent convo seems to be in tune with some PM convos I had.

Hey, thank you for that info. I'd like to share with you some calculation I just did.

Once a series enters the C bet, here is the difference between C/D bets to win 1 unit as opposed to 2 units.

Considering we have 100 series that enter C bet (64.84% win at C and 74.44% win at D), we win 91 series and lose 9 series.

Normal 1 unit format ((risk 1.1 on A, risk 2.31 on B, risk 4.85 on C, risk 11.29 on D) - We net -85 units after 100 series. -0.85 units per series entering C.
New format (risk 1.1 on A, risk 2.31 on B, risk 5.95 on C, risk 13.74 on D) - We net -26 units after 100 series. -0.26 units per series entering C.

Just some info I thought you might like to look at. I'm personally going to try to win 2 units from C/D bets from now on. So at the end of the year, I could also update you on the results if you would like.

Again, thanks a lot.

Now mind you, the percentages on C/D bets aren't from a big enough sample so use this info how you will but be cautious.

[Nino7]

who did you quote that from?

[tr4sh]

that was my own quote

[Melda]

what are plays tonight? cant find them

[J.M. Disciple]

what are plays tonight? Cant find them

nyk +6 (a)

[J.M. Disciple]

16.11.2012

S1

(A Bet) NYK: NY Knicks +5,5 1,10u

bump.

[DustyDiamond]

Dusty if i were labbying this, I would just run 1 line. Its all based on -110 odds and each level hits at a high rate. Say you only have 4 #s on your line but he has 3 games (2#s per game) Just add another 1 unit to your line creating 6#s (.5 - .5 - .5 - .5 - .5 - .5) and bet each game the same amount. You could also do two lines. 1 for A&B and 1 for C&D. Any more lines then two is unnecessary. Best advice is to just run 1 line.

GOod luck

Thanks J.M I think I'm leaning more towards two lines but keep the lines 4 numbers. I was thinking about doing Line 1 for A&C and Line 2 for B & D. If I lose an A bet, I'll take the units lost divide it by 2 and apply to each line by adding the units to the 4 numbers and dividing by 4 to keep the lines 4 numbers. Thoughts? Any flaws with this method?

[J.M. Disciple]

Seeing how it only goes to C 20% of the time most of your wagers on line 1 Will be 80% A bets. Your 2nd line Will get about 46%.

honestly think your missing out on profits with two lines.

if anything run the chase that stiff is running then, if it loses divide the loss over two lines and try and clear it on the side.

[J.M. Disciple]

On a side note if you are running two lines, add 1 unit for each new series. your lines Will get some what heavy but your profits Will keep up with the chase + recover losses.

[Stifler]

16.11.2012

S1

(A Bet) NYK: NY Knicks +5,5 1,10u

records:
S1: W 6 | L 0 (+6,00 units)
S2: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)
S3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
S4: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)

pending:
- S4 Tor fade, B Bet on 17.11.2012
- S1 SA, B Bet on 17.11.2012
- S1 NYK, B Bet on 18.11.2012

[NicoleAniston]

Stifler today is S1: (B Bet) SAS: Spurs -6,5 1,10u ?

NVM just read

Pending: - S1 SA, B Bet on 17.11.2012

[akuwudikeeze]

Stiffer, am new to your thread but mean reading up. Great work. So if am correct today we would fade TOR ATS ( B bet) and back SPURS ATS (B bet) ?

[Kelloggs]

Stiffer, am new to your thread but mean reading up. Great work. So if am correct today we would fade TOR ATS ( B bet) and back SPURS ATS (B bet) ?

So many questions would be answered before posted, if people would just wait until the mighty Stifler posts the picks

[lordlord2323]

today what is the play .... you can confirmed you play please