2012-13 NBA Picks

**PS3** · 01-19-13, 12:49 AM

Whewwww.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-19-13, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Thanks fellas. Feels good.

Very nice Coin,

did not get the bonus money but the amount you wagered was bonus enough..............

**No coincidences** · 01-19-13, 01:39 AM

5-1, +26U today
104-112, +23.04U thread

**hughesn2** · 01-19-13, 01:05 PM

Just some statistics I have made

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

We are complete dumb fukks for taking Dallas against the best team in the NBA,it is that simple............

You got lucky, I did not! I went with the -4 for OKC and got burned b/c Westbrook and Durant got NO team help at all. And I should thank Westbrook for missing that first FT for not making it being a push.

Originally posted by Speedy88

I've bet against OKC a number of times, and have only bet on them a few times. I should just blindly bet OKC every game the rest of the season, I'm sure I'd come out ahead at the end of the year.

That is WHY I bet on OKC for ATS just because you know you will break even. Here is a spreadsheet I have made about 5 good teams ATS all year:

SA	24-17-1	(1-3) when underdog
LAC	26-15	(5-2) when underdog
OKC	24-14-1	(0-1-1) when underdog
DENV	23-19	(7-7) when underdog
MEM	22-16	(6-4) when underdog

Best HOME Against the Spread
LAC	15-7
OKC	(14-8)
HOU	(13-9)
UTAH	(11-5)
DENV	(11-7)
SA	(12-7)
GS	(10-7)
MEM	(12-8)

BUT...

ATS since Dec. 30
SA	(6-5)
OKC	(7-3)
DENV	(4-6)
LAC	(6-4)
MEM	(6-5)
GS	(2-5)
MIA	(4-6)
HOU	(5-6)

**hughesn2** · 01-19-13, 01:07 PM

Hope this comes out. I made this excel sheet

Teams w/ good ATS margins			Covered spread when they WIN a game
SA	24-17-1	(1-3) when underdog		GS	20-2
LAC	26-15	(5-2) when underdog		HOU	19-2
OKC	24-14-1	(0-1-1) when underdog		MEM	21-4
DENV	23-19	(7-7) when underdog		DENV	20-5
MEM	22-16	(6-4) when underdog		LAL	(13-3)
HOU	21-20	(9-11-1) when underdog		LAC	25-6
WSH	22-14	(1-2) when FAVORED		SA	23-7-1
GS	21-16	(12-9-1) when underdog		OKC	24-7
MIA	18-19	(1-1) when underdog		MIA	(19-7)

Best HOME Against the Spread
LAC	15-7
OKC	(14-8)
HOU	(13-9)
UTAH	(11-5)
DENV	(11-7)
SA	(12-7)
GS	(10-7)
MEM	(12-8)

Beat Spread when Favored		When Favored by 7 or more pts.
SA	23-14-1	SA	(15-7)	ATS since Dec. 30
OKC	23-13-1	OKC	(13-8)	SA	(6-5)
DENV	14-10	DENV	(4-6)	OKC	(7-3)
LAC	21-13	LAC	(9-8)	DENV	(4-6)
MEM	(17-12)	MEM	(6-8)	LAC	(6-4)
GS	(9-7)	GS	(1-3)	MEM	(6-5)
MIA	18-19	MIA	(11-9)	GS	(2-5)
HOU	(12-9)	HOU	(4-1)	MIA	(4-6)
				HOU	(5-6)

From start of season to Dec. 29
LAC	20-11
GS	19-11
OKC	17-11-1
SA	18-12-1
MEM	16-11
DENV	19-13
WSH	20-14
MIA	15-13
HOU	16-14

SA vs. OKC- 2 games (OKC 1W and push on other)- OKC favored won

SA vs. DENV- 2 games (split)- Spurs favored both, won once

SA vs. LAC- 2 games (LAC both)-Spurs favored both, loss both

LAC vs. OKC- 1 game (OKC win)- OKC favored won

LAC vs. DENV- 2 games (split)- Denv. Favored won, LAC favored won

LAC vs. MEM- 2 games (LAC both)- LAC favored once

MEM vs. SA- 2 games (MEM both)- MEM favored once

MEM vs. OKC- 1 game (MEM won)-OKC favored & lost

MEM vs. DENV- 3 games (DENV won twice)-MEM favored twice & won once, DENV favored once & won

		17 games between these 5 teams: Favored team went (9-7-1)
	ATS	SA	24-17-1	SA vs. other 4 (ATS): 2-5-1 (favored in 5 of 8)
		LAC	26-15	DENV vs. other 4 (ATS): 4-3 (favored in 2 of 7)
		OKC	24-14-1	LAC vs. other 4 (ATS): 5-2 (favored in 2 of 7)
		DENV	23-19	OKC vs. other 4 (ATS): 2-1-1 (favored in all 4
		MEM	22-16	MEM vs. other 4 (ATS): 5-3 (favored in in 3 of 8)
		Overall	119-81-2
					18-14-2
Not including games the			97-63-0
5 play each other
Pick FAVORED team			106-70-0
amongst the 5 play each			0.602

**Capybara** · 01-19-13, 01:08 PM

Good stuff, Hughes, thanks for posting!

**lunchbawks** · 01-19-13, 10:06 PM

nocoin died from stress after last nights game

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-19-13, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

nocoin died from stress after last nights game

He is in the black for the first time,

let him enjoy it for a few days.......

**Vinnie Paz** · 01-19-13, 10:29 PM

Pauly ain't talkin doo doo nowadays huh

**No coincidences** · 01-19-13, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

nocoin died from stress after last nights game

LOL -- college hoops took away all my time today. I didn't even look at the NBA card.

**No coincidences** · 01-20-13, 08:05 PM

DEN +1.5 (4.4U to win 4)
BOS +4.5 live (1.1U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 02:01 AM

1-1, +2.9U tonight
105-113, +25.94U thread

**therealdealau** · 01-21-13, 02:23 AM

Wow +26 Units, last time I checked up on your thread you were hovering around breaking even. Congrats mate, killing it!

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by therealdealau

Wow +26 Units, last time I checked up on your thread you were hovering around breaking even. Congrats mate, killing it!

Thanks.

I was actually down about 25 at one point.

**therealdealau** · 01-21-13, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Thanks.

I was actually down about 25 at one point.

Wow, even more impressive. Keep doing what you are doing - it's working.

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 10:39 AM

Like the Nets and maybe the Bullets today.

Have to remember there are day games. Think the IND/MEM game goes under.

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 11:26 AM

BROOK +4 (4.4U to win 4)
CHA +7.5 (2.1U to win 2)
MEM -1/under 177 tease (1.2U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 01:05 PM

Adding:

IND TT under 83 (2.2U to win 2)

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 02:04 PM

IND +2.5 live (2.2U to win 2)

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 03:44 PM

Not that crazy about the late line move in the Nets favor. Almost too obvious.

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 04:03 PM

GS 1H +2 (1.1U to win 1)

**Shifty107** · 01-21-13, 05:43 PM

Killin it Coin. Nice to see the tables turn for you mate. Keep up the great work.

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by Shifty107

Killin it Coin. Nice to see the tables turn for you mate. Keep up the great work.

Thanks Shifty.

5-1, +9.8U today
110-114, +35.74U thread

Not sure about tonight. I lean Lakers, Wizards and Spurs/Sixers under, but need to show some discipline. Might just pass.

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 07:06 PM

Like Philly 1H +3.5.

**CHAZ** · 01-21-13, 07:36 PM

Debating the Lakers here but can't quite pull the trigger because of the cross country travel. I just feel like yesterday was a look ahead game for them. Tonight they'll come to play. What are you thinking?

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by CHAZ

Debating the Lakers here but can't quite pull the trigger because of the cross country travel. I just feel like yesterday was a look ahead game for them. Tonight they'll come to play. What are you thinking?

It all makes sense on paper, but I'm basically 0 for the season trying to bet that team.

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 09:29 PM

LAL +1 (2.2U to win 2)

One more time.

**CHAZ** · 01-21-13, 09:35 PM

I couldn't resist either LOL

Good luck to us

**Shifty107** · 01-21-13, 10:30 PM

That makes three of us. God help us.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-21-13, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

LAL +1 (2.2U to win 2)

One more time.

Goatmilk the 2nd.....

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Goatmilk the 2nd.....

Nah. If it hits, it hits (and it probably will). I'm done chasing this team though.

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-21-13, 11:00 PM

A (17-23) team @ a (23-16) Chi team and the public pushes the line to make LAL favorites by tip off,

I did not buy into the very flawed public perception of the lakeshow.....

The lakers might win though............

**No coincidences** · 01-21-13, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

A (17-23) team @ a (23-16) Chi team and the public pushes the line to make LAL favorites by tip off,

I did not buy into the very flawed public perception of the lakeshow.....

The lakers might win though............

The public was on the Lakers?

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-21-13, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

The public was on the Lakers?

You know this Coin..........

**PAULYPOKER** · 01-21-13, 11:04 PM

01/21/2013 9:45 PM EST
715 LOS ANGELES LAKERS	194.5u10	-1	-1.5	-1.5	PK	-1.5	-1 -03	-1 -02	-1	61%	off	43%
716 CHICAGO BULLS	-1 -05	194.5	194.5	194.5	194.5	193.5	194.5u10	194o08	194.5	39%		57%