NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

**DudleyDawson** · 12-09-12, 11:44 AM

I like Denver +5 today and that's about it, what you guys thinking

**burchfield** · 12-09-12, 05:25 PM

No plays

**CanuckG** · 12-09-12, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Whats the plays goat?

Here is 2 NFL winners for ya......
BALT. +125
KC+7+101

**mvanja** · 12-09-12, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Whats the plays goat?

Here is 2 NFL winners for ya......
BALT. +125
KC+7+101

did good, with NFL today, just like myself..

**sipdawg7** · 12-09-12, 06:03 PM

I had baltimore myself. The herd from espn is over 70%. He's been good to follow. He now has 12 straight winning weeks lol.

**Goat Milk** · 12-09-12, 06:13 PM

PLAY 81: LAWSON OVER 15.5 POINTS -115 RISK $57.50 TO WIN 50 (HERITAGE)

Felton struggles guarding speedy guys and I think Lawson will get at least 15 shot attempts.

**Ralphie1412** · 12-09-12, 06:20 PM

c'mooooon man....thats your play? How big is your clit?

**PAULYPOKER** · 12-10-12, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by CanuckG

Last laugh as always.......

Green bay -6 Seattle style baby!!!
Seattle and the 12th man will easily cover the 10.5 spot

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-10-12, 04:20 AM

Originally posted by sipdawg7

I had baltimore myself. The herd from espn is over 70%. He's been good to follow. He now has 12 straight winning weeks lol.

I managed to get BAL+3 with one of my books, so ended going 4-0-1 tailing Cowherd this week.

The guy is on fire, I think his worst week was 3-2 a few weeks back.

Keep riding the train!

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-10-12, 04:20 AM

BTW, nice prop Goat - you and Sando are blitzing it.

**JR007** · 12-10-12, 03:05 PM

goat, hows your "matchup analysis" goin ?????

"my guess is your are going to keep playing moneylines, to keep your "tracked record in the black"
you are a "wily coyote"

**mvanja** · 12-10-12, 04:39 PM

Goat what about Miami, il LBJ playing or... Is the spreadlow because of it, or?

**DiamondBack** · 12-10-12, 04:47 PM

Goat seems to know Miami well so will probably know before us for sure but so far Sports Options has:

12/09	F	LeBron James	groin	Probable	<CENTER>18 </CENTER>	<CENTER>25.1 </CENTER>	<CENTER>8.9 </CENTER>	<CENTER>6.9 </CENTER>	<CENTER>1.3 </CENTER>	<CENTER>0.8 </CENTER>
6:40am		is probable Monday vs Atlanta.
12/09	G	Dwyane Wade	ankle	Probable	<CENTER>15 </CENTER>	<CENTER>19.8 </CENTER>	<CENTER>3.7 </CENTER>	<CENTER>4.4 </CENTER>	<CENTER>1.2 </CENTER>	<CENTER>0.6 </CENTER>
6:40am		is probable Monday vs Atlanta.

**Goat Milk** · 12-10-12, 04:55 PM

yeah they're both playing. the spread is accurate. miami has been bad this year and atl is playing their best ball in years.

**mvanja** · 12-10-12, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

yeah they're both playing. the spread is accurate. miami has been bad this year and atl is playing their best ball in years.

so are U going to touch this game or let it go?

**mvanja** · 12-10-12, 05:03 PM

I was looking at Zcode and best caper over there 1st on their list says this about : Mark says at 05:44 et
And Heat are struggling. Crushed by the Knicks, lost to the Wizards... Hornets (soon to be the Pelicans, not joking) are awful... I don't like the way they're playing right now.

But this could be one of those blowouts we don't see coming. Heat slumping but at home they could be pissed off... there's no denying they're the more talented team, and they're due to snap out of it.

7 points is a P play. I'm on it. Low confidence

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-10-12, 05:26 PM

What would the spread be if the Heat were actually playing decent ball?

**mvanja** · 12-10-12, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

What would the spread be if the Heat were actually playing decent ball?

In my modest opinion at least 9,5 - 10

**ShogunRua** · 12-10-12, 05:34 PM

Goat doesn't like the Heat tonight which means they are probably the play.

**Mrkonas** · 12-10-12, 05:47 PM

Soooooo?what is the play tonight?Anyone got any decent info about Harden's injury?

**Goat Milk** · 12-10-12, 06:04 PM

PLAY 82: MIAMI -7 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 83: TORONTO RAPTORS TEAM TOTAL OVER 95.5 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 84: LEBRON JAMES OVER 26 POINTS -120 RISK $60 TO WIN $50

PLAY 85: GREG MONROE OVER 15 POINTS -120 RISK $30 TO WIN $25

PLAY 86: LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE OVER 21.5 POINTS -115 RISK $46 TO WIN $40

PLAY 87: OPEN PARLAY (3 TEAMER) MIAMI -290 (1ST LEG) RISK $100 TO WIN ______
(WILL COMPLETE THIS PARLAY OVER NEXT 2 DAYS)

Miami will be prepared for this game tonight. ATL has a speedy combination of pgs with Teague and then Harris and Lou Will. This team is still missing a premier perimeter defender. I expect Stevenson to start tonight for ATL and if he doesn't, Drew will have made a serious mistake that will make me feel comfy with my MIA bet. Korver is a horrible defender as is Lou Will and Devin Harris. None of these 3 guys can defend, so expect Wade to get into the paint at will tonight and find open shooters for Miami.

I highly doubt Spoelstra starts Lebron at the 4 today. It's best to come in with Haslem and Bosh at the 4 and 5 and have Haslem guard Horford and Bosh guard Smith. ATL is looking to push the tempo this year a little more with Teague at the point and that should play into MIami's favor. The faster the game the better it is for Miami. Even with a legit post presence in Horford, I still don't like ATL's half court offense this year. They don't really have a perimeter player this can just give the ball to to make something happen at the end of a shot clock.

Chalmers and Teague is a good matchup of some young point guards. Both are capable of knocking down the 3 and defending, both struggle guarding guys quicker and more agile then them but these two are about the same speed and kind of play the same way. I expect a big game from Lebron James today. There's no one in an atlanta uniform that can cover James. The best matchup imo is probably Ivan Johnson, a good young hustle player off the bench for the Hawks. He will most definitely see some time on James tonight. He is a good post defender but I just see James making that fadeaway jumper tonight like he always does against the Hawks. Lebron hates this team and he'll show up tonight in a big way. I expect a good amount of fast break points from MIA. Josh Smith is a guy that's going to get carried away at times tonight. Here's why. When he see's Chris Bosh making 20 foot jumpers, he tries to match him. No joke. Smith is a guy that wants to be a guard. Watching Bosh play outside the paint tonight will entice him to do the same, and I'll take my chances with Josh shooting 20 foot jumpers. Haslem and Joel Anthony should both play some on Horford and all I'm hoping is that they prevent him from getting O rebounds. Horford has a solid mid range jumper but no one on this team can set him up consistently enough where he can shoot that shot 10 times a game. Therefore, a lot of his points come off clean ups off the glass.

Miami has struggled guarding 3 point shooting teams and ATL has a lot of shooters and quick guards but with Norris Cole and Chalmers I don't think there will be too many defensive lapses for MIA tonight as they can match ATLs perimeter speed and ATL will have absolutely no answer for Lebron James tonight. Ray Allen Chalmers Battier Bosh will all get wide open jumpers imo.

________________________________________ _____________--

Philly has struggled to guard bigger guys in the paint. Look for Monroe to get about 12+ shot attempts tonight. I expect him to score over 15.

_____________________________________-

Without Battum or Matthews (supposedly--not sure if he will play), I expect Toronto to score over 100 points in this game. Those are Portland's best two perimeter defenders by far and it's not even close. I don't see any way that Portland will slow down Dorozon on one of those wings. Pavalvic Babbit may both start? Not even sure. I kind of want to take the raptors and might later but let's not all forget that Lamarcus Aldridge is still the best player on the court by far and there is no one in a Raptors Jersey that can guard him on the elbow.

**Seto** · 12-10-12, 06:20 PM

FYI Haslem is out according to Rotoworld

**Goat Milk** · 12-10-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by Seto

FYI Haslem is out according to Rotoworld

I just saw that. I'm hoping Joel Anthony will get the start.

**bjb7223** · 12-10-12, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by Seto

FYI Haslem is out according to Rotoworld

opponents he guards have been shooting 70% against him. He is lucky he is a local guy because he sucks.

**bjb7223** · 12-10-12, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 82: MIAMI -7 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 83: TORONTO RAPTORS TEAM TOTAL OVER 95.5 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 84: LEBRON JAMES OVER 26 POINTS -120 RISK $60 TO WIN $50

PLAY 85: GREG MONROE OVER 15 POINTS -120 RISK $30 TO WIN $25

PLAY 86: LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE OVER 21.5 POINTS -115 RISK $46 TO WIN $40

PLAY 87: OPEN PARLAY (3 TEAMER) MIAMI -290 (1ST LEG) RISK $100 TO WIN ______
(WILL COMPLETE THIS PARLAY OVER NEXT 2 DAYS)

Miami will be prepared for this game tonight. ATL has a speedy combination of pgs with Teague and then Harris and Lou Will. This team is still missing a premier perimeter defender. I expect Stevenson to start tonight for ATL and if he doesn't, Drew will have made a serious mistake that will make me feel comfy with my MIA bet. Korver is a horrible defender as is Lou Will and Devin Harris. None of these 3 guys can defend, so expect Wade to get into the paint at will tonight and find open shooters for Miami.

I highly doubt Spoelstra starts Lebron at the 4 today. It's best to come in with Haslem and Bosh at the 4 and 5 and have Haslem guard Horford and Bosh guard Smith. ATL is looking to push the tempo this year a little more with Teague at the point and that should play into MIami's favor. The faster the game the better it is for Miami. Even with a legit post presence in Horford, I still don't like ATL's half court offense this year. They don't really have a perimeter player this can just give the ball to to make something happen at the end of a shot clock.

Chalmers and Teague is a good matchup of some young point guards. Both are capable of knocking down the 3 and defending, both struggle guarding guys quicker and more agile then them but these two are about the same speed and kind of play the same way. I expect a big game from Lebron James today. There's no one in an atlanta uniform that can cover James. The best matchup imo is probably Ivan Johnson, a good young hustle player off the bench for the Hawks. He will most definitely see some time on James tonight. He is a good post defender but I just see James making that fadeaway jumper tonight like he always does against the Hawks. Lebron hates this team and he'll show up tonight in a big way. I expect a good amount of fast break points from MIA. Josh Smith is a guy that's going to get carried away at times tonight. Here's why. When he see's Chris Bosh making 20 foot jumpers, he tries to match him. No joke. Smith is a guy that wants to be a guard. Watching Bosh play outside the paint tonight will entice him to do the same, and I'll take my chances with Josh shooting 20 foot jumpers. Haslem and Joel Anthony should both play some on Horford and all I'm hoping is that they prevent him from getting O rebounds. Horford has a solid mid range jumper but no one on this team can set him up consistently enough where he can shoot that shot 10 times a game. Therefore, a lot of his points come off clean ups off the glass.

Miami has struggled guarding 3 point shooting teams and ATL has a lot of shooters and quick guards but with Norris Cole and Chalmers I don't think there will be too many defensive lapses for MIA tonight as they can match ATLs perimeter speed and ATL will have absolutely no answer for Lebron James tonight. Ray Allen Chalmers Battier Bosh will all get wide open jumpers imo.

________________________________________ _____________--

Philly has struggled to guard bigger guys in the paint. Look for Monroe to get about 12+ shot attempts tonight. I expect him to score over 15.

_____________________________________-

Without Battum or Matthews (supposedly--not sure if he will play), I expect Toronto to score over 100 points in this game. Those are Portland's best two perimeter defenders by far and it's not even close. I don't see any way that Portland will slow down Dorozon on one of those wings. Pavalvic Babbit may both start? Not even sure. I kind of want to take the raptors and might later but let's not all forget that Lamarcus Aldridge is still the best player on the court by far and there is no one in a Raptors Jersey that can guard him on the elbow.

i'm riding with you tonight Goat. 1 unit on each one

**BMoreBird** · 12-10-12, 06:29 PM

toronto covers tonight. guaranteed.

**elPkay** · 12-10-12, 06:33 PM

Nice looking card. Unfortunately I can't tail those bets since I don't have a Heritage account yet.
"Open Parlays" are parlays you can play over a few days where you choose the games and bets over these days until you reach the number
of games you selected with the first bet? Or did I get that wrong?

**Goat Milk** · 12-10-12, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by elPkay

Nice looking card. Unfortunately I can't tail those bets since I don't have a Heritage account yet.
"Open Parlays" are parlays you can play over a few days where you choose the games and bets over these days until you reach the number
of games you selected with the first bet? Or did I get that wrong?

Open parlay 3 teams. I selected one of the 3 teams already and can fill the other 2 in with any bets I want, mls spreads or totals.

**elPkay** · 12-10-12, 06:42 PM

Do you have to place those 2 bets on the same day? Or can you hold on to the Parlay for the next days?

**Goat Milk** · 12-10-12, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by elPkay

Do you have to place those 2 bets on the same day? Or can you hold on to the Parlay for the next days?

You can hold onto it for any amount of time.

**Catchn_Picks** · 12-10-12, 06:50 PM

Thank you Goat for taking the time to write such a detailed post. Gl tonight to all

**PerfectGrape** · 12-10-12, 06:56 PM

What's the point of the open parlay? Wouldn't the payout be better if you just let it ride on 3 separate bets?

**MexicanStallion** · 12-10-12, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 81: LAWSON OVER 15.5 POINTS -115 RISK $57.50 TO WIN 50 (HERITAGE)

Felton struggles guarding speedy guys and I think Lawson will get at least 15 shot attempts.

December 9th
1-0 (+$50.00)

NBA Season
49-32-1 ($2934.75)

Spreads: 20-12-1 ($1221.75)
Parlays: 6-0 ($1158.00)
Moneylines: 11-3 ($917.50)
Props: 3-1 ($145.00)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
TT: 1-3 (-$150.00)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
Halves: 7-10 (-$242.50)

**Seto** · 12-10-12, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by bjb7223

opponents he guards have been shooting 70% against him. He is lucky he is a local guy because he sucks.

just mentioned it cause he said he hoped haslem will start in the analysis.

according to rotoworld they'll be going with battier which basically means lebron at the 4 but we'll see, not always accurate.

**jwjohnboy12** · 12-10-12, 07:11 PM

Is that Goats record??