NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

[Byrone09]

Sounds good! Never done an open parlay so it will be nice to try something new. Never done action reverse either. What are those?

[Goat Milk]

just mentioned it cause he said he hoped haslem will start in the analysis.

according to rotoworld they'll be going with battier which basically means lebron at the 4 but we'll see, not always accurate.

I don't like Battier starting here but whatever. I think Battier will guard the 4. Now Bosh will have to guard Horford more until Joel Anthony subs in off the bench. Either way, Lebron is capable of guarding a guy like Horford as well as he is an undersized C. Miami will figure it out. Lebron will just ask Battier and Bosh who they want to guard and Lebron will take the other guy.

[t-wizzle]

Pretty sure Rashard Lewis is starting for Battier.

[Goat Milk]

PLAY 88: PISTONS/76ERS 2ND HALF OVER 93.5 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

PISTONS look like the better team in this first half. The pace is higher than expected with the Pistons executing strategy correctly. Philly can be beaten up in the paint and they have had no answer for Monroe thus far as projected. Look for them to even try and double that in the second half and maybe give stones shooters some wide open looks.

Philly offense is a mess in the first half even though they are shooting well they are not passing the ball as good as they shoot. I'm expecting Drew Holliday to put this team on his back in the second half as there's really no one that can guard him on the stones.

[t-wizzle]

PLAY 88: PISTONS/76ERS 2ND HALF OVER 93.5 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

PISTONS look like the better team in this first half. The pace is higher than expected with the Pistons executing strategy correctly. Philly can be beaten up in the paint and they have had no answer for Monroe thus far as projected. Look for them to even try and double that in the second half and maybe give stones shooters some wide open looks.

Philly offense is a mess in the first half even though they are shooting well they are not passing the ball as good as they shoot. I'm expecting Drew Holliday to put this team on his back in the second half as there's really no one that can guard him on the stones.

Yep Holiday is going to take over. Sixers can't handle Detroit down low. Spencer Hawes is quite possibly the softest 7 footer in the league. Thad Young put on about 15 pounds of muscle over the offseason but he still can't handle guys like Monroe and Maxiell.

[The Architect]

PLAY 88: PISTONS/76ERS 2ND HALF OVER 93.5 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

PISTONS look like the better team in this first half. The pace is higher than expected with the Pistons executing strategy correctly. Philly can be beaten up in the paint and they have had no answer for Monroe thus far as projected. Look for them to even try and double that in the second half and maybe give stones shooters some wide open looks.

Philly offense is a mess in the first half even though they are shooting well they are not passing the ball as good as they shoot. I'm expecting Drew Holliday to put this team on his back in the second half as there's really no one that can guard him on the stones.

Decent play, still too high of a number for me to play an over with teams as streaky as these two. detroit shot under 40% and hit only 2 threes, yet they got to the FT line 19 times. Should go over, i'm with you there. but either of these teams is liable to throw up 15 in a quarter. BOL. I'm on detroit +6.5 for the game.

[bjb7223]

PLAY 82: MIAMI -7 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 83: TORONTO RAPTORS TEAM TOTAL OVER 95.5 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 84: LEBRON JAMES OVER 26 POINTS -120 RISK $60 TO WIN $50

PLAY 85: GREG MONROE OVER 15 POINTS -120 RISK $30 TO WIN $25

PLAY 86: LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE OVER 21.5 POINTS -115 RISK $46 TO WIN $40

PLAY 87: OPEN PARLAY (3 TEAMER) MIAMI -290 (1ST LEG) RISK $100 TO WIN ______
(WILL COMPLETE THIS PARLAY OVER NEXT 2 DAYS)


Miami will be prepared for this game tonight. ATL has a speedy combination of pgs with Teague and then Harris and Lou Will. This team is still missing a premier perimeter defender. I expect Stevenson to start tonight for ATL and if he doesn't, Drew will have made a serious mistake that will make me feel comfy with my MIA bet. Korver is a horrible defender as is Lou Will and Devin Harris. None of these 3 guys can defend, so expect Wade to get into the paint at will tonight and find open shooters for Miami.

I highly doubt Spoelstra starts Lebron at the 4 today. It's best to come in with Haslem and Bosh at the 4 and 5 and have Haslem guard Horford and Bosh guard Smith. ATL is looking to push the tempo this year a little more with Teague at the point and that should play into MIami's favor. The faster the game the better it is for Miami. Even with a legit post presence in Horford, I still don't like ATL's half court offense this year. They don't really have a perimeter player this can just give the ball to to make something happen at the end of a shot clock.

Chalmers and Teague is a good matchup of some young point guards. Both are capable of knocking down the 3 and defending, both struggle guarding guys quicker and more agile then them but these two are about the same speed and kind of play the same way. I expect a big game from Lebron James today. There's no one in an atlanta uniform that can cover James. The best matchup imo is probably Ivan Johnson, a good young hustle player off the bench for the Hawks. He will most definitely see some time on James tonight. He is a good post defender but I just see James making that fadeaway jumper tonight like he always does against the Hawks. Lebron hates this team and he'll show up tonight in a big way. I expect a good amount of fast break points from MIA. Josh Smith is a guy that's going to get carried away at times tonight. Here's why. When he see's Chris Bosh making 20 foot jumpers, he tries to match him. No joke. Smith is a guy that wants to be a guard. Watching Bosh play outside the paint tonight will entice him to do the same, and I'll take my chances with Josh shooting 20 foot jumpers. Haslem and Joel Anthony should both play some on Horford and all I'm hoping is that they prevent him from getting O rebounds. Horford has a solid mid range jumper but no one on this team can set him up consistently enough where he can shoot that shot 10 times a game. Therefore, a lot of his points come off clean ups off the glass.

Miami has struggled guarding 3 point shooting teams and ATL has a lot of shooters and quick guards but with Norris Cole and Chalmers I don't think there will be too many defensive lapses for MIA tonight as they can match ATLs perimeter speed and ATL will have absolutely no answer for Lebron James tonight. Ray Allen Chalmers Battier Bosh will all get wide open jumpers imo.


________________________________________ _____________--

Philly has struggled to guard bigger guys in the paint. Look for Monroe to get about 12+ shot attempts tonight. I expect him to score over 15.

_____________________________________-

Without Battum or Matthews (supposedly--not sure if he will play), I expect Toronto to score over 100 points in this game. Those are Portland's best two perimeter defenders by far and it's not even close. I don't see any way that Portland will slow down Dorozon on one of those wings. Pavalvic Babbit may both start? Not even sure. I kind of want to take the raptors and might later but let's not all forget that Lamarcus Aldridge is still the best player on the court by far and there is no one in a Raptors Jersey that can guard him on the elbow.

greg monroe is over already money$$$$

[bjb7223]

PLAY 88: PISTONS/76ERS 2ND HALF OVER 93.5 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

PISTONS look like the better team in this first half. The pace is higher than expected with the Pistons executing strategy correctly. Philly can be beaten up in the paint and they have had no answer for Monroe thus far as projected. Look for them to even try and double that in the second half and maybe give stones shooters some wide open looks.

Philly offense is a mess in the first half even though they are shooting well they are not passing the ball as good as they shoot. I'm expecting Drew Holliday to put this team on his back in the second half as there's really no one that can guard him on the stones.

damn i missed this

[Byrone09]

Missed it too. Nice call on Monroe. Too bad you risk so little on these prop bets. You seem to be nailing them! Lebron only needs 10 in the 2nd half.

[sbrhgary]

Very nice calls tonight, don't know why there is so much trash talk here.

[bjb7223]

Cash the Lebron prop he's at 27

[bjb7223]

Heat cover goat is crushing kids

[BabyMatrix27]

Very nice calls tonight, don't know why there is so much trash talk here.

Theres too much trash talk cuz ppl are haters that Goat is winning! Keep it up bro.. I followed you on that Lebron over and Miami -7! Thank you

[bjb7223]

cash the Aldridge Prop

[MexicanStallion]

PLAY 82: MIAMI -7 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 83: TORONTO RAPTORS TEAM TOTAL OVER 95.5 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

PLAY 84: LEBRON JAMES OVER 26 POINTS -120 RISK $60 TO WIN $50

PLAY 85: GREG MONROE OVER 15 POINTS -120 RISK $30 TO WIN $25

PLAY 86: LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE OVER 21.5 POINTS -115 RISK $46 TO WIN $40

PLAY 87: OPEN PARLAY (3 TEAMER) MIAMI -290 (1ST LEG) RISK $100 TO WIN ______
(WILL COMPLETE THIS PARLAY OVER NEXT 2 DAYS)

PLAY 88: PISTONS/76ERS 2ND HALF OVER 93.5 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

December 9th
5-1 (+$155.00)
*Open Parlay Pending 1/3*

NBA Season
54-33-1 ($3089.75)

Spreads: 21-12-1 ($1321.75)
Parlays: 6-0 ($1158.00)
Moneylines: 11-3 ($917.50)
Props: 6-1 ($260.00)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
Halves: 8-10 (-$192.50)
TT: 1-4 (-$260.00)

*10-2 Last 12 Plays*

[vancityswag]

Holy sh)t... Player props champ

[Goat Milk]

unreal. Toronto's best two players go down in the 1st half? what happened? was not watching. would have taken Toronto tt under 2nd half for sure.

[sando]

Goat putting in work.

[mvanja]

December 9th
5-1 (+$155.00)
*Open Parlay Pending 1/3*

NBA Season
54-33-1 ($3089.75)

Spreads: 21-12-1 ($1321.75)
Parlays: 6-0 ($1158.00)
Moneylines: 11-3 ($917.50)
Props: 6-1 ($260.00)
Totals: 1-1 ($45.00)
Live: 0-2 (-$160.00)
Halves: 8-10 (-$192.50)
TT: 1-4 (-$260.00)

*10-2 Last 12 Plays*

MONEY MAKING ( PRINTING ) MACHINE

[strybie]

great job !! You are definitely one of the best cappers in the NBA at this moment !! Thanks !!

and when you are on twitter, let me know, so I can follow you and so I can get the plays even faster

[Catchn_Picks]

Damn Goat...great capping but 5-1 for only $155...feels like we got robbed somehow...lol.

Great job..gl luck to you and all today.

[ZachShalack420]

Siccck Record!!!

Any plays today?

I'm def on the Nugs/Pistons game -4.5 buyin half a pt to -5. Throwing a couple units on it.

[SportsPedagogy]

[ParlayBricker]

Siccck Record!!!

Any plays today?

I'm def on the Nugs/Pistons game -4.5 buyin half a pt to -5. Throwing a couple units on it.

buying a half point the wrong way pal.

[promm]

nice work indeed! congratz, Goat.

[jwjohnboy12]

Loved yesterday. some nice picks. Im interested in seeing todays props. I kinda like Deng over 18.5 points and Anthony over 28.5. Any thoughts?

[Goat Milk]

PLAY 87: OPEN PARLAY (3 TEAMER) MIAMI -290 (1ST LEG) RISK $100 TO WIN ______
(WILL COMPLETE THIS PARLAY OVER NEXT 2 DAYS)

MIAMI (WIN)/LAKERS ML @ CAVS/DENVER ML @ PISTONS +180

RISK $100 TO WIN $180

________________________________________ ____________

PLAY 89: LAKERS -5 (-140)/ DENVER -4 (-140)/BROOKLYN ML(+140) = +606 PARLAY

RISK $50 TO WIN $303

PLAY 90: JOE JOHNSON OVER 17 POINTS -115 (HERITAGE) RISK $57.5 FOR 50

I don't have much to say about this Cavs game. The Lakers should win this game by at least 10 points imo. Kyrie back tonight and that should help the Cavs offense. Missing waiters this game, I don't expect Daniel Gibson to start at the 2. It'd be wiser to start Alonzo Gee at the 2 to guard Bryant. Jamison is going to play well in this game I have a feeling and Bryant did not forget 6 months ago when Kyrie Irving said he could beat Bryant 1 on 1. Trust me, Bryant did not forget about that.

Det is playing on a B2B here and Denver kind of owns them. Pistons have been playing a lot better as of late and are actually a decent team with a plethora of scorers but they really don't matchup well here. Denver is too big of a team and that's the one area DET usually has an advantage in. Not a big bet so I'm not doing a matchup analysis here.

Brooklyn is the 2nd best team in the East imo without Stoudemire or Shumpert. This is one of the best backcourts in NBA history imo. Felton is gonna get abused tonight. The guy is an overagressive defender and try to play up one D Will like that he will cross you more often then not. Joe Johnson has a pretty significant mismatch here and I expect him to score 20+ in this game. There's absolutely no way J Kidd or JR Smith or Even Brewer can guard Joe Johnson down on the block. Without Lopez, I expect the Nets to run a lot more play for JJ especially down on the block. Look for a couple of those signature tear drops tonight in the paint and D Will is gonna get him some looks from 3 no doubt. The Nets are prepared for this game. Gerald Wallace is loving getting to guard Mello against and try and make him a volume shooter. The Knicks can't win games if they don't shoot well and it could be one of those games for them as they have a guy who can guard Mello 1 on 1 (albeit no one can guard Mello, just a matter of trying to keep him off the FT throw line imo). Felton always tries to do too much in these types of games where he's going against a premier pg. Raymond Felton really believes he is one of the best PGs in the NBA and I expect D Will to put him in check on both ends of the floor tonight.

Humpries and Blatch should play well down low, both guys are capable of hitting a short jumper and that spacing might prove more important in this game as Chandler loves to control the paint. I don't want to mention Reggie Evans because I hate the guy but he is a pest to any opponent. Nets have the better bench imo as they have more guys that can beat you off the dribble. CJ Watson and Brooks are both guys that can produce instant offense. I expect Brooks to get some minutes today for sure and take one of those two guys to take on the challenge of guarding JR Smith when Joe Johnson is not in the game/not switched onto Mello well Wallace is out of the game. Novak and those guys. You can't really predict how well a guy like NOvak is going to play but without Felton or Kidd really being able to break down their defenders 1 on 1 (Watson should see some time on one of these guys too--he is an excellent defender), I don't see too many 3s for Novak and Company unless Chanlder beasts up on the boards and gets O rebounds for wide open kick out 3s.

Knicks might win this game but it's a coin flip imo and I'm getting 140.

[bjb7223]

good stuff i'm in on everything a unit

[DudleyDawson]

MIAMI (WIN)/LAKERS ML @ CAVS/DENVER ML @ PISTONS +180

RISK $100 TO WIN $180

________________________________________ ____________

PLAY 89: LAKERS -5 (-140)/ DENVER -4 (-140)/BROOKLYN ML(+140) = +606 PARLAY

RISK $50 TO WIN $303

PLAY 90: JOE JOHNSON OVER 17 POINTS -115 (HERITAGE) RISK $57.5 FOR 50

I don't have much to say about this Cavs game. The Lakers should win this game by at least 10 points imo. Kyrie back tonight and that should help the Cavs offense. Missing waiters this game, I don't expect Daniel Gibson to start at the 2. It'd be wiser to start Alonzo Gee at the 2 to guard Bryant. Jamison is going to play well in this game I have a feeling and Bryant did not forget 6 months ago when Kyrie Irving said he could beat Bryant 1 on 1. Trust me, Bryant did not forget about that.

Det is playing on a B2B here and Denver kind of owns them. Pistons have been playing a lot better as of late and are actually a decent team with a plethora of scorers but they really don't matchup well here. Denver is too big of a team and that's the one area DET usually has an advantage in. Not a big bet so I'm not doing a matchup analysis here.

Brooklyn is the 2nd best team in the East imo without Stoudemire or Shumpert. This is one of the best backcourts in NBA history imo. Felton is gonna get abused tonight. The guy is an overagressive defender and try to play up one D Will like that he will cross you more often then not. Joe Johnson has a pretty significant mismatch here and I expect him to score 20+ in this game. There's absolutely no way J Kidd or JR Smith or Even Brewer can guard Joe Johnson down on the block. Without Lopez, I expect the Nets to run a lot more play for JJ especially down on the block. Look for a couple of those signature tear drops tonight in the paint and D Will is gonna get him some looks from 3 no doubt. The Nets are prepared for this game. Gerald Wallace is loving getting to guard Mello against and try and make him a volume shooter. The Knicks can't win games if they don't shoot well and it could be one of those games for them as they have a guy who can guard Mello 1 on 1 (albeit no one can guard Mello, just a matter of trying to keep him off the FT throw line imo). Felton always tries to do too much in these types of games where he's going against a premier pg. Raymond Felton really believes he is one of the best PGs in the NBA and I expect D Will to put him in check on both ends of the floor tonight.

Humpries and Blatch should play well down low, both guys are capable of hitting a short jumper and that spacing might prove more important in this game as Chandler loves to control the paint. I don't want to mention Reggie Evans because I hate the guy but he is a pest to any opponent. Nets have the better bench imo as they have more guys that can beat you off the dribble. CJ Watson and Brooks are both guys that can produce instant offense. I expect Brooks to get some minutes today for sure and take one of those two guys to take on the challenge of guarding JR Smith when Joe Johnson is not in the game/not switched onto Mello well Wallace is out of the game. Novak and those guys. You can't really predict how well a guy like NOvak is going to play but without Felton or Kidd really being able to break down their defenders 1 on 1 (Watson should see some time on one of these guys too--he is an excellent defender), I don't see too many 3s for Novak and Company unless Chanlder beasts up on the boards and gets O rebounds for wide open kick out 3s.

Knicks might win this game but it's a coin flip imo and I'm getting 140.

great spot for the Lakers to trash the Cavs.

[sbrhgary]

Really can't go for Nets after getting pounded by the Bucks.

[JM92]

Just a warning: against the Bucks, Joe Johnson posted himself 3, 4 times.

[Goat Milk]

MIAMI (WIN)/LAKERS ML @ CAVS/DENVER ML @ PISTONS +180

RISK $100 TO WIN $180

________________________________________ ____________

PLAY 89: LAKERS -5 (-140)/ DENVER -4 (-140)/BROOKLYN ML(+140) = +606 PARLAY

RISK $50 TO WIN $303

PLAY 90: JOE JOHNSON OVER 17 POINTS -115 (HERITAGE) RISK $57.5 FOR 50

I don't have much to say about this Cavs game. The Lakers should win this game by at least 10 points imo. Kyrie back tonight and that should help the Cavs offense. Missing waiters this game, I don't expect Daniel Gibson to start at the 2. It'd be wiser to start Alonzo Gee at the 2 to guard Bryant. Jamison is going to play well in this game I have a feeling and Bryant did not forget 6 months ago when Kyrie Irving said he could beat Bryant 1 on 1. Trust me, Bryant did not forget about that.

Det is playing on a B2B here and Denver kind of owns them. Pistons have been playing a lot better as of late and are actually a decent team with a plethora of scorers but they really don't matchup well here. Denver is too big of a team and that's the one area DET usually has an advantage in. Not a big bet so I'm not doing a matchup analysis here.

Brooklyn is the 2nd best team in the East imo without Stoudemire or Shumpert. This is one of the best backcourts in NBA history imo. Felton is gonna get abused tonight. The guy is an overagressive defender and try to play up one D Will like that he will cross you more often then not. Joe Johnson has a pretty significant mismatch here and I expect him to score 20+ in this game. There's absolutely no way J Kidd or JR Smith or Even Brewer can guard Joe Johnson down on the block. Without Lopez, I expect the Nets to run a lot more play for JJ especially down on the block. Look for a couple of those signature tear drops tonight in the paint and D Will is gonna get him some looks from 3 no doubt. The Nets are prepared for this game. Gerald Wallace is loving getting to guard Mello against and try and make him a volume shooter. The Knicks can't win games if they don't shoot well and it could be one of those games for them as they have a guy who can guard Mello 1 on 1 (albeit no one can guard Mello, just a matter of trying to keep him off the FT throw line imo). Felton always tries to do too much in these types of games where he's going against a premier pg. Raymond Felton really believes he is one of the best PGs in the NBA and I expect D Will to put him in check on both ends of the floor tonight.

Humpries and Blatch should play well down low, both guys are capable of hitting a short jumper and that spacing might prove more important in this game as Chandler loves to control the paint. I don't want to mention Reggie Evans because I hate the guy but he is a pest to any opponent. Nets have the better bench imo as they have more guys that can beat you off the dribble. CJ Watson and Brooks are both guys that can produce instant offense. I expect Brooks to get some minutes today for sure and take one of those two guys to take on the challenge of guarding JR Smith when Joe Johnson is not in the game/not switched onto Mello well Wallace is out of the game. Novak and those guys. You can't really predict how well a guy like NOvak is going to play but without Felton or Kidd really being able to break down their defenders 1 on 1 (Watson should see some time on one of these guys too--he is an excellent defender), I don't see too many 3s for Novak and Company unless Chanlder beasts up on the boards and gets O rebounds for wide open kick out 3s.

Knicks might win this game but it's a coin flip imo and I'm getting 140.

PLAY 91: CAVS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 100 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

Small play here. This total is inflated because of the Lakers poor defense this year. Dwight expressed his agitation with the help defense not being there when he goes for blocks and I expect Artest Jordan Hill and others to key in on this message and play a defensive style game tonight. Irving is back but don't see him dropping more than 20ish. Cavs are a pretty slow paced team and take a while to get into their sets, and most of their points actually come off off. rebounds and put backs. If the Lakers clean up the glass tonight I don't see Cavs scoring more than 90 points.

[jwjohnboy12]

Great Hope you turn you team totals around starting tonight. Im tailing all.
GL

[bjb7223]

PLAY 91: CAVS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 100 -110 RISK $55 TO WIN $50

Small play here. This total is inflated because of the Lakers poor defense this year. Dwight expressed his agitation with the help defense not being there when he goes for blocks and I expect Artest Jordan Hill and others to key in on this message and play a defensive style game tonight. Irving is back but don't see him dropping more than 20ish. Cavs are a pretty slow paced team and take a while to get into their sets, and most of their points actually come off off. rebounds and put backs. If the Lakers clean up the glass tonight I don't see Cavs scoring more than 90 points.

tailing this too

[Tim Gerry Mander]

What do you think about this prop:

Johnson +9.5 v Anthony (most points)

JJ is paying $2.40