NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

[Nova0387]

he bought it down obviously you idiot.

Phuck you...It's not often you see someone buy 7.5 points, maybe he did some type of teaser or something ass wipe

[Goat Milk]

Phuck you...It's not often you see someone buy 7.5 points, maybe he did some type of teaser or something ass wipe

It's a parlay only for $50. Buying it down to 2.5 provided more value than the money line. Not really much I like except the jazz ml. A lot of good teams playing shit teams today and the spreads are high. Waiting for the 1H's to play out to make another play.

[16johnnymac]

Yeah that coukd be the answer lol


UOTE=Goat Milk;16938380]It's a parlay only for $50. Buying it down to 2.5 provided more value than the money line. Not really much I like except the jazz ml. A lot of good teams playing shit teams today and the spreads are high. Waiting for the 1H's to play out to make another play.[/QUOTE]

[FindTheLock]

You think the magic will upset the spurs?

[Goat Milk]

You think the magic will upset the spurs?

I don't know. Probably not. But they could cover with the Spurs probably looking ahead to Miami tomorrow night. I don't like betting against the Spurs this time of year. GL tonight.

[davopnz]

Phuck you...It's not often you see someone buy 7.5 points, maybe he did some type of teaser or something ass wipe

Yeah because you have ML's in a teaser? you muff.

[H-Diesel503]

do you like this with Mo Will out for the game tonight?

Tinsley starting.....

[H-Diesel503]

BTW parsons is out tonight...........I expect OKC to smash HOU very easily.

[Goat Milk]

PLAY 40: CELTICS -5.5 -110 2ND HALF VS. NETS (51-38 BROOKLYN AT THE HALF)
RISK $55 TO WIN $50

Good game going on here. The Celtics will sharpen up in the second half. Lots of unforced turnovers in the 1st half. Expect Rondo to come out on fire second half and he will definitely find his open guys. 9+ assists for him in the 2nd. Celts should get a few more looks from the perimeter off his penetration.

[therealdealau]

Rondo ejected pal.

[CanuckG]

Wasn't Rondo ejected? You even watching the game?

[Goat Milk]

yeah i watched most of the half...i got like 6 games playing on tvs. what happened? prolly a bad bet then. need luck.

[sando]

Big "fight" Humphries, Wallace, Rondo all ejected. I took C's 2nd half immediately. It's not a bad bet.

[Goat Milk]

Rondo too valuable. Should have just watched the remainder of the half but hit the other two plays, thinking about taking something in this twolves game at the half.

My man billups looking razor sharp after being out for like a year

[MexicanStallion]

PLAY 38: JAZZ ML/BULLS ML/THUNDER -2.5 +190 RISK $50

PLAY 39: JAZZ ML -140 RISK $140

PLAY 40: CELTICS -5.5 -110 2ND HALF VS. NETS (51-38 BROOKLYN AT THE HALF)
RISK $55 TO WIN $50

November 28th
2-1 ($140.00)

NBA Season
28-12 ($2217.25)

Spreads: 13-7 ($433.75)
Moneylines: 7-2 ($737.50)
Halves: 3-3 ($125.00)
Parlays: 4-0 ($851.00)
TT: 1-0 ($70.00)

*13-4 Last 17 Plays*

[You mad bro]

hope u didnt touch that clippers game for the game .. maybe second half like u said though

[goldengreek]

You are gonna bury ppl who are following you blindly and dont really know how bad you actually suck

I guess if you keep taking ML pars with big favs you might survive for a while

[goldengreek]

he bought it down obviously you idiot.

He bought 7.5 points on a game ??? lmao...who does that ??

[Goat Milk]

He bought 7.5 points on a game ??? lmao...who does that ??

+190 parlay winner. Now....go check who the public is on tonight and hope that I don't bury you like I always do

[Goat Milk]

PLAY 41: NUGGETS -1.5 -110 Risk $55

PLAY 42: NUGGETS ML -115 RISK $230

[t-wizzle]

PLAY 41: NUGGETS -1.5 -110 Risk $55

PLAY 42: NUGGETS ML -115 RISK $230

Don't like this play Goat. Revenge game for Warriors.

[Goat Milk]

Don't like this play Goat. Revenge game for Warriors.

Warriors aren't good. Not even one position on the court they can take advantage of. Dominated at every position.

[t-wizzle]

Warriors aren't good. Not even one position on the court they can take advantage of. Dominated at every position.

Nuggets aren't that good either. What position can they take advantage of?

[Goat Milk]

Nuggets aren't that good either. What position can they take advantage of?

You keep saying the Nuggets aren't good. You're wrong. They're one of the best teams in the West. Way to deep for the Warriors to handle. They can take advantage of every position on the court. I'll write something up for you later today.

[Nova0387]

Thoughts on the Miami-Spurs game?

[impper]

i don't like the nuggs on the road, and golden state is tougher at home, but i'm on the nuggs too. warriors don't have anybody, can't rebound the ball well, need hot shooting to win this. nuggs should be good

[Barnes & Whine]

How about the OVER on this Nuggets/Warriors game boys??

[Goat Milk]

The Nugs lost a close one to Utah the other day, in a game where they took a DD lead to the half and Utah countered with a huge run in the third quarter. The Nugs seemed to go downhill when Iguadala got ejected and struggled to find any defensive rhythm. The Nugs offense is on FIRE right now and that is enough for me to take them in this game. Pretty sure the Warriors have already lost to the Nugs twice this year. There's no revenge factor. When a team in the nba beats another team consistently, that usually doesn't change. Why? Because this is a game of matchups. Nugs will beat the Warriors 7/10 times at least in this spot.

Mark Jackson is a good coach imo and he will make some adjustments in this game--as he has seen the Nuggets already twice in the past few weeks. But I just don't believe in the Warriors team. Curry is a shoot-first pg and he will struggle guarding Lawson defensively as he is at least a half a step slower. Thompson is the key to this team's success. He will be matchuped with Iguadala and that is a tough matchup for him on both ends. Andre is not really that great of an offensive player but he can get his own shot at any time against Thompson. Barnes is a very athletic young player but Gallinari will teach him a lesson tonight I believe. Barnes is not that great off the dribble and doesn't really get any plays called for him. Gallinari can be exposed off the dribble but Barnes won't get too many isos if any. On the other end Gallinari is a legit 6'10. Barnes is 6'6 TOPS, yet he lists himself at 6'8. There's a 4 inch difference there. Don't expect Barnes to pose any threat to Gallinari's jumper.

Faried will have to battle David Lee and keep him off the glass. Nugs are a very good rebounding team and if can kind of minimize Lee and Thompson, this team really struggles to get anything going. This team shares the ball a good amount but to beat a team like Denver in my opinion you have to pass the ball really well because 1 on 1 play is not gonna work unless you have a premier PF that can take advantage of Farried's lack of height.

Nugs have a good bench with Miller, Brewer, McGee, Hamilton. Chandler is still out. I think Hamilton will get some time in this game. He is a good 3 point shooter and yet another guy to stretch the floor. Brewer is an energetic slasher and I don't really see anyone on the Warriors bench being able to keep up with his overall activity on both ends of the floor. McGee and Miller are both starting guys in this league and you have them coming off the bench. The only guys on the Warriors bench worth mentioning are Jared Jack and Carl Landry. Landry provides a lot of energy for this team. He could pose a problem for the Nuggets but I'd let Faried just guard him and keep him off the glass and off the FT line. Richard Jefferson is washed up.

Nuggets are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the NBA but that is bound to turn around. They know how to shoot the ball. They are just far too big for GS with 3 centers in Koufas McGee and Mozgof all over 7 feet, and then wing players like Brewer and Gallinari that are 6'9 6'10.

[t-wizzle]

Told you Duncan wouldn't play tonight. No Parker, Ginobili, or Green either.

[The Architect]

The Nugs lost a close one to Utah the other day, in a game where they took a DD lead to the half and Utah countered with a huge run in the third quarter. The Nugs seemed to go downhill when Iguadala got ejected and struggled to find any defensive rhythm. The Nugs offense is on FIRE right now and that is enough for me to take them in this game. Pretty sure the Warriors have already lost to the Nugs twice this year. There's no revenge factor. When a team in the nba beats another team consistently, that usually doesn't change. Why? Because this is a game of matchups. Nugs will beat the Warriors 7/10 times at least in this spot.

Mark Jackson is a good coach imo and he will make some adjustments in this game--as he has seen the Nuggets already twice in the past few weeks. But I just don't believe in the Warriors team. Curry is a shoot-first pg and he will struggle guarding Lawson defensively as he is at least a half a step slower. Thompson is the key to this team's success. He will be matchuped with Iguadala and that is a tough matchup for him on both ends. Andre is not really that great of an offensive player but he can get his own shot at any time against Thompson. Barnes is a very athletic young player but Gallinari will teach him a lesson tonight I believe. Barnes is not that great off the dribble and doesn't really get any plays called for him. Gallinari can be exposed off the dribble but Barnes won't get too many isos if any. On the other end Gallinari is a legit 6'10. Barnes is 6'6 TOPS, yet he lists himself at 6'8. There's a 4 inch difference there. Don't expect Barnes to pose any threat to Gallinari's jumper.

Faried will have to battle David Lee and keep him off the glass. Nugs are a very good rebounding team and if can kind of minimize Lee and Thompson, this team really struggles to get anything going. This team shares the ball a good amount but to beat a team like Denver in my opinion you have to pass the ball really well because 1 on 1 play is not gonna work unless you have a premier PF that can take advantage of Farried's lack of height.

Nugs have a good bench with Miller, Brewer, McGee, Hamilton. Chandler is still out. I think Hamilton will get some time in this game. He is a good 3 point shooter and yet another guy to stretch the floor. Brewer is an energetic slasher and I don't really see anyone on the Warriors bench being able to keep up with his overall activity on both ends of the floor. McGee and Miller are both starting guys in this league and you have them coming off the bench. The only guys on the Warriors bench worth mentioning are Jared Jack and Carl Landry. Landry provides a lot of energy for this team. He could pose a problem for the Nuggets but I'd let Faried just guard him and keep him off the glass and off the FT line. Richard Jefferson is washed up.

Nuggets are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the NBA but that is bound to turn around. They know how to shoot the ball. They are just far too big for GS with 3 centers in Koufas McGee and Mozgof all over 7 feet, and then wing players like Brewer and Gallinari that are 6'9 6'10.

nice write up, goat milk. I like your angle(s)...but why is the line moving against down for denver with majority of action on the nuggets? Kind of seems like a tossup here..GS is not an easy place to play either.

[Goat Milk]

Told you Duncan wouldn't play tonight. No Parker, Ginobili, or Green either.

I should got the line last night or earlier today cause I wanted to take MIA regardless. Did you get on them for 5.5?

[Goat Milk]

nice write up, goat milk. I like your angle(s)...but why is the line moving against down for denver with majority of action on the nuggets? Kind of seems like a tossup here..GS is not an easy place to play either.

Line movement doesn't mean anything to me. Anyone can cap games based off line movement. No skill required.

[t-wizzle]

I should got the line last night or earlier today cause I wanted to take MIA regardless. Did you get on them for 5.5?

No I was going to take them but then I decided I didn't want to touch the game because I figured at least Duncan would be out and there would be variables I couldn't account for.

[The Architect]

Line movement doesn't mean anything to me. Anyone can cap games based off line movement. No skill required.

Disagree with you there, it most definitely requires skill, just not the same type of skills used to cap based on actual sporting knowledge. When used in conjunction, I think it provides a better analysis...However, in certain spots, I agree, it can be irrelevant. I like denver here as well... the Warriors haven't won four straight at home since March 25-April 6, 2011. I just hate betting against Hot shooters like curry and thompson. How strong of a play is this for you?

[Goat Milk]

Disagree with you there, it most definitely requires skill, just not the same type of skills used to cap based on actual sporting knowledge. When used in conjunction, I think it provides a better analysis...However, in certain spots, I agree, it can be irrelevant. I like denver here as well... the Warriors haven't won four straight at home since March 25-April 6, 2011. I just hate betting against Hot shooters like curry and thompson. How strong of a play is this for you?

Well...considering a 5th grader could look at lines, then look at public data (percentages) and then correlate the line moves with the numbers, it probably doesn't require much skill.