NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

**sando** · 11-27-12, 06:09 PM

Like the Suns here too mate. Very deep team just lacking a franchise guy, but damn can they reel in a defecit like no other team. Bizarrely it seems to be Shannon Brown who sparks a lot of these comebacks.

Anyway missing your 1st class match-up analysis. Like you I think match-up's are the key to picking winners.

**argentop2p** · 11-27-12, 06:13 PM

Hello Goat Milk, how much is the most you can risk on each bet?

**t-wizzle** · 11-27-12, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

No sry not for this one. Cleveland coming off a couple tough losses on the road to great basketball teams and now returning home and highly doubt they can maintain an offensive pace to keep up with the suns who just have too many options 1-9. A couple significant mismatches in the starting lineup as well imo for the suns at the pg and the sf positions.

I'm on suns as well. You don't like Pargo?

**Goat Milk** · 11-27-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by argentop2p

Hello Goat Milk, how much is the most you can risk on each bet?

I don't understand the question. If you're asking what my max bet is, I don't know, it could be anywhere up to $1,000 in the regular season and $2,000 in the playoffs. Those plays would be very rare.

Originally posted by t-wizzle

I'm on suns as well. You don't like Pargo?

Yeah I like him, may be underestimating him because I've only seen him play a few times, but Dragic is a very crafty dribbler and he's very deceptive with that first move. We'll see how he defends him.

**t-wizzle** · 11-27-12, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

I don't understand the question. If you're asking what my max bet is, I don't know, it could be anywhere up to $1,000 in the regular season and $2,000 in the playoffs. Those plays would be very rare.

Yeah I like him, may be underestimating him because I've only seen him play a few times, but Dragic is a very crafty dribbler and he's very deceptive with that first move. We'll see how he defends him.

What do you think about Michael Beasley? Guy should be a lot better than he has been.

**Goat Milk** · 11-27-12, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

What do you think about Michael Beasley? Guy should be a lot better than he has been.

One of the best young talents in the nba in my opinion. He's still young as hell but yeah he should be improving and he's not. Needs to start putting more time in the film room probably.

**Goat Milk** · 11-27-12, 06:59 PM

PLAY 36: MAVERICKS +3 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

Sando, I will write some in depth stuff on the next plays. This seems like a 50-50 matchup for Philly with quality of perimeter defenders the Mavs have. Yes, they struggle defensively in the paint and can't really stop penetration but Collison Marion and Mayo are all solid out on the perimeter and Philly is simply a 1 on 1 basketball team. Almost every play they create is a 1 on 1 play with the exception of some penetration by Holiday and Spencer Hawes being a willing passer out of the post when he's in the game. I'm still baffled that Collins doesn't start Hawes and if he doesn't make that move sooner than later this year he will regret it. Not sure if either coach will change the lineups tonight.

No way Brand will be able to stay with Thad Young off the dribble but he can most definitely dominate him on the other end in the post. Matchups are tricky tonight but Carlisle will have a good gameplan. I'm sure Carlisle will switch to a small lineup tonight and have Marion play the 4 and switch Carter to the 3 with Mayo and a pg (Collison, Beaubois). J Rich will have his hands full with Mayo in my opinion. I would bring in Crowder when Nick Young comes in the game.

I would also like to see Kaman get a significant amount of minutes tonight as he should be able to get anything he wants down low.

**DudleyDawson** · 11-27-12, 07:01 PM

I'm on the Sixers and Wolves tonight....best of luck!

**1sob** · 11-27-12, 07:08 PM

good luck Goat !!

**Goat Milk** · 11-27-12, 07:11 PM

Carlisle gonna bench Brand tonight for that reason. No way he can stay with Young. He should be more effective off the bench.

**Catchn_Picks** · 11-27-12, 07:19 PM

Riding with you on Dallas. BOL

Get that cream...Milk!

**JM92** · 11-27-12, 07:33 PM

Im surprised you took the Mavs since you are a matchup guy. No one besides Marion can hang with Young on the Mavs. Which means there's always going to be at least two miss matches on the floor because no one can guard Holiday either... Collison is good, but he's giving up a lot of height. I also don't believe Mayo to be that good a defender and if he's on Turner, Turner's got size advantage. Brand hasn't been taking advantage of anyone so far.

**Byrone09** · 11-27-12, 07:43 PM

With you on the Suns earlier. Missed the Mavs play. Damn! Good luck!

**JR007** · 11-27-12, 07:55 PM

have any of your plays( posted) involve taking a position against the Heat ??? if I am wrong please correct me

**t-wizzle** · 11-27-12, 08:14 PM

Mavs are doing what they want to do inside with Kaman and Brand and swinging the ball. 76ers hanging around however and have been very good closing out games lately.

**alamo** · 11-27-12, 09:38 PM

Another perfect day...

**SaffaCappa** · 11-27-12, 10:02 PM

Great work Goat!

**Goat Milk** · 11-27-12, 10:16 PM

26-6 last 32 posted plays 81%

**BCC585** · 11-27-12, 10:25 PM

You know your shit on the NBA bro

**Untied** · 11-27-12, 10:41 PM

Close call with the Mavs. Nice day for you. Smart to stay away from Toronto. I cleaned up taking Houston and U of Michigan today. Parlayed them too.

**Goat Milk** · 11-27-12, 11:08 PM

PLAY 37: TWOLVES/KINGS OVER 97.5 -110 2ND HALF RISK $55 TO WIN $50 (48-45 WOLVES @ THE HALF)

I watched a couple minutes of this game and it seems as though the Wolves are playing a little out of their element. I expect them to chuck up a few more 3s in the 2nd half and make a few more as well. The Kings are not playing aggressively right now and are lucky to be down by 3. This game will come down to the wire imo and that'll only favor the over 2nd half. Just a small half unit play on this because I'm bored.

**MexicanStallion** · 11-28-12, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 35: SUNS ML -135 @ Cleveland Risk $135 to win $100

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 36: MAVERICKS +3 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 37: TWOLVES/KINGS OVER 97.5 -110 2ND HALF RISK $55 TO WIN $50 (48-45 WOLVES @ THE HALF)

November 27th
2-1 ($145.00)

NBA Season
26-11 ($2077.25)

Spreads: 13-7 ($433.75)
Moneylines: 6-2 ($637.50)
Halves: 3-2 ($180.00)
Parlays: 3-0 ($756.00)
TT: 1-0 ($70.00)

*11-3 Last 14 Plays*

**FindTheLock** · 11-28-12, 12:34 AM

what are you eyeing for tomorrow? 11 game card so I look forward to seeing your selections.

**RetardStrength** · 11-28-12, 09:12 AM

Great work goat. I check your plays before making mine... Cashed on Suns ATS, parlayed the Suns with the UNDER... Cashed. Good night for me cashing on some college bball too! Keep at it! Many thanks!

**pimpinaces** · 11-28-12, 10:04 AM

This cats pretty good

**JR007** · 11-28-12, 10:48 AM

have to give credit where credit is due,........but still think this type of handicapping is all "smoke and mirrors "....no model involved, no accounting for pricing, line movement etc ..looks like a "streak".....will see where it takes you (long-term)......

**strybie** · 11-28-12, 10:51 AM

nice stats so far !! I have to check this thread every day

**thunderous** · 11-28-12, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by JR007

have to give credit where credit is due,........but still think this type of handicapping is all "smoke and mirrors "....no model involved, no accounting for pricing, line movement etc ..looks like a "streak".....will see where it takes you (long-term)......

IMO it's the streaks like these that makes you a winner....if you had a model that churned out winners day in and day out you books would be out of business and you wouldn't be here looking for winners. Its all about luck and winning streaks/momentum, sure you need to know certain things like injuries, historical matchups etc but believe me or not luck is the number 1 thing you need on your side in gambling everything else come second.

**blanco** · 11-28-12, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by thunderous

but believe me or not luck is the number 1 thing you need on your side in gambling everything else come second.

**JR007** · 11-28-12, 04:22 PM

there are unpredictable variables in any game, but if you have a good model, chance are you will win more than you will lose, I follow a guy NFL,........... and his model in bases was over 60%, and in NFL is around that figure, he does not do NBA, .....but he bets the same "level staking) on every bet

**Goat Milk** · 11-28-12, 05:12 PM

PLAY 38: JAZZ ML/BULLS ML/THUNDER -2.5 +190 RISK $50

PLAY 39: JAZZ ML -140 RISK $140

The Hornets got a big win the other day against a smaller clippers team but I expect the Jazz's size to really bother the Hornets. This is still a very young team without a true go to guy. Lopez will have his hands full with Jefferson and the Hornets don't really have any bigs off the bench. Meanwhile, the Jazz are one of the biggest teams in all of basketball. Jefferson and Milsap are both a handful for any frontcourt. Milsap is a capable defender both in the paint and on the perimeter so I expect him to at least make Ryan Anderson work on both ends.

The Hornets run a lot of decoy high screens and then bring a wing player to run cross court for a quick handoff pass, typically causing the D to hone in on the dribbler and you get a wide open three. I don't think that's going to work against the Jazz who are a very long team which gives them good recovery speed to shooters.

I'm not a big fan of Roger Mason in the starting lineup for the Hornets and I doubt that will last. Rivers is a much better option. Either way I'll take Foye over both of these guys. He's more consistent and the better defender. Marvin Williams needs to play much better for this team. Aminu is a very capable defender, definitely the best perimeter defender on the Hornets, but because of the huge mismatches down low I expect Aminu to act as a help defender in several scenarios and Jefferson is a willing passer out of the post.

Not sure if Mo Will will start today, I'd like to see him in there. Vasquez is gonna get his regardless but the defensive activity of the Jazz particularly on the perimeter should force him into some careless turnovers and poor shot attempts. The Jazz have the much better bench with guys like Hayward, Favors, Watson (defensive guy), Kantor, Carroll. Smith and Rivers are the primary guys off NO bench. Smith is gonna struggle to guard a much more athletic Favors.

Milsap is gonna play some SF in this game and the Jazz are gonna go big, with both Jefferson and Favors imo. This is a nightmare lineup for the Hornets to defend. They really only have 2 bigs in Lopez and Smith and neither are good defenders.

________________________________________ _____________

The Bulls should be able to beat the Mavs at home after their epic collapse to the Bucks. The Mavs lost yesterday in a heartbreaker but they turned the ball over SIX STRAIGHT POSSESSIONS. You don't deserve to win if you do that. Featuring one of the nba's best three point shooting teams against a stiff 3 pt defensive team in Chicago. If the Mavs handle the ball like they did last night, it won't be a 2 point game, it'll be a 22 point game.

_________________________________

The OKC line is almost unbettable. They were only -11 to the cats and are -10 now to Houston? I think they can cover this number but it's a bullshit number.

**blanco** · 11-28-12, 05:17 PM

Hornets are 3-0 SU last 3 home games vs the Jazz, only reason I don't like the jazz play.

If you use 5dimes look into Bulls Q3. Check out my thread

**Nova0387** · 11-28-12, 06:19 PM

How are you getting Thunder -2.5?

**davopnz** · 11-28-12, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by Nova0387

How are you getting Thunder -2.5?

he bought it down obviously you idiot.

**SBRMAN23** · 11-28-12, 06:32 PM

Buying points lots