Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #9451
    Originally posted by sando
    Thanks for all the points lads, it's very reassuring to known that you guys haven't lost faith in me.

    This is what's going on in my world...

    I'm immersed in sports 24/7, around this time of the year I tend to think about the NBA all day every day, and when I'm not thinking about the NBA I'm thinking about MMA and boxing. When I sleep I usually have sports related dreams, when I'm cooking or doing the dishes I'll have my iPhone hooked up to a radio in the kitchen banging out NBA podcasts one after the other. When I go to bed I usually lay in bed reading NBA articles until I fall asleep, often as I fall asleep my Ipad falls out of my hands and hits me in the face. It never ends for me...

    So anyway when you are immersed in sports 24/7 and you are interacting with guys on twitter and SBR telling you how good you are, sometimes it can get to your head, and I will admit I do constantly suffer from arrogance in regards to many sports (mainly NBA and rugby league) as well as subjects like betting, investing, trading, etc. sometimes it gets to the point where I think I'm better than the pro handicappers that actually work for the books and that's when I make mistakes. I think the very fact that I have been so successful in multiple sports over the last 12-24 months has made me forget just how hard it is to maintain a winning edge in sports investing. While I have had considerable success across multiple sports, I am still far from a professional, both in attitude and results. There is much still to learn for me and plenty to improve upon.

    I spend so much time immersed in the NBA world hat it gets to the point where I find "angles" on every 2nd game and on a daily basis I can have as many as 10-15 plays before I start scratching them of my list. I clearly have not been selective enough with my plays (especially as its so early in the season) and combined with my totals system just sucking at the moment, and my extraordinary bad luck with the team totals (example - T-Wolves yesterday need only 17 points in the 4th to hit their over 206.5 and they score 16 and we lose by the hook) I have had a rough start to the season, yet we still are about even for year despite everything. I will update my season record today.

    So the plan is to keep up the work, maintain focus, be selective with my plays, severely cut down on the totals (making adjustments and paper trading) and start stringing together some winning days back to back. I have the utmost faith that I will have a successful NBA season, my knowledge of both the game, the players, and investing in general is the strongest it has ever been. It's a long season and there is no need to "kill it" every day. Grinding out profits is the name of the game. So thanks everyone for the support. I couldn't care less about the actual 2 point donations (I just gamble all my points away on Baccarat and stupid parlays anyway) but it is the meaning behind seeing so many people donate a few points that makes all the hard work so rewarding.

    PS - I may seem like a loser to some, posting plays on Friday and Sat nights and spending so much time on research and SBR. The truth is I love sports and I am happiest when I am doing sports related activities (including playing sports). I have a good job that pays well and allows me tons of free time for research, I have a nice girlfriend, and some pretty nice stuff. I used to have lots of friends, not so much anymore. I still in theory have plenty of mates, it's just that I'm not very good at staying in contact with people and I'm kind of anti-social, I don't go out much anymore, however I have been through some really hard times in the last 5-10 years and these days I find I'm perfectly happy at home in my own company.

    Cheers and sorry for the rant...
    One of the best posts I've ever read here.
    Comment
    • No coincidences
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-18-10
      • 76300

      #9452
      Originally posted by JM92
      Yup, Sando you know I love you (lol) but these looks like one of those where you selection criteria might not have been at its top. Its odds that are not that far off from even/pk and you are playing them trusting a lot on their 3p shooting. All advanced stats don't actually point in a favorable match-up for either way but if I'm looking at player by player I honestly feel like the Pistons will kill the Lakers inside and I doubt Wes Johnson/Henry/Young or whoever plays the most at SF won't take advantage of Smith and, on the other side, might indeed get taken advatage of (although we obviously can't count on the Smith that shoots 7 trees a game to really take advantage of anyone). Also the Pistons are top of the league in fastbreak points per game and Lakers transition D is below average. Will be a gametime decision around here too and as always I love the insight anyway!

      Liked your rant above a lot as well. BOL either way as always dude!
      You are a very underrated poster here, JM. Always appreciate your insight.
      Comment
      • OMGChoGath
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 04-11-13
        • 585

        #9453
        You'll bounce back. What is your NBA record/total for the year?
        Comment
        • rohan22no
          SBR Sharp
          • 07-20-11
          • 365

          #9454
          Everyone thinks sandos sports analysis is good until he writes self-analysis. Wow! Sando, your ability to reflect and critically look at yourself is second
          to none. What a great life skill that is.

          Sando, have you thought much about the ashes? Will you be watching it and/or betting on it or are you in pure basketball mode? Would love to see a pre series write up if you have the time!

          Cheers
          R
          Comment
          • JM92
            SBR MVP
            • 01-27-12
            • 1140

            #9455
            Originally posted by OMGChoGath
            You'll bounce back. What is your NBA record/total for the year?
            I have my "Sando Tailing" nba record at - 5.6 units, but I'm pretty sure Sando's actually closer to even right now, which only goes to show how good you must be when everyone is talking about a rough start for the season and you might actually end the night with positive units!

            Meanwhile I couldn't help myself for taking the Pistons. Im going to start watching the game but just by looking at the box score, except for the actual score, I feel really bad about my play right now lol.


            @ NoCoin, thanks, I agree ahah. I didn't use to post much except for the LTA thread when I got here (I literally own that man for teaching me how to cap the nba) but I'm seeing less and less trolling so I've been posting a lot more lately. Once you know the right people and the right threads, this forum is actually pretty good.
            Comment
            • OMGChoGath
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 04-11-13
              • 585

              #9456
              Yeah Lakers was the right play there but it's still close.
              Comment
              • No coincidences
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-18-10
                • 76300

                #9457
                Originally posted by JM92
                @ NoCoin, thanks, I agree ahah. I didn't use to post much except for the LTA thread when I got here (I literally own that man for teaching me how to cap the nba) but I'm seeing less and less trolling so I've been posting a lot more lately. Once you know the right people and the right threads, this forum is actually pretty good.
                Good to see. Keep it up.
                Comment
                • JM92
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-27-12
                  • 1140

                  #9458
                  Originally posted by OMGChoGath
                  Yeah Lakers was the right play there but it's still close.
                  Im still "happy" with my Pistons play but I don't like to see the Pistons winning by only 4 when they are shooting 64%. Since I tuned in, lots of stupid turnovers also and they are not winning the boards. That Jennings play though... wow. I actually thought he had lost the ball, but no, amazing play!


                  edit: sorry you guys lost the 1st half play. would be a happier guy if the Lakers won the first half as long as I won mine in the end!
                  Comment
                  • thorny
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 12-10-12
                    • 351

                    #9459
                    Originally posted by sando
                    NBA Sunday

                    Memphis @ Sacramento
                    3* Grizzlies -2 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)
                    Originally posted by sando
                    Adding...

                    Late game - Pistons @ Lakers

                    1* Lakers ML (+115/$2.15 5Dimes)
                    1* Lakers +2.5 (-108/$1.92 Sportsbet)
                    1* Lakers 1st Half ML (+110/$2.10 Sportingbet)


                    Well done Sando, well picked and a good day at the office!

                    Comment
                    • Grunch
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 05-21-13
                      • 51

                      #9460
                      Nice job Sando! It's good when things work out the way you think they will, it's a pretty nice feeling.
                      Comment
                      • Lilfatbum
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 08-21-12
                        • 55

                        #9461
                        Raining 3 ball again, they will upset some top teams this year doing this, just a frustrating team to back, although pistons looking lottery material.

                        Awesome piece from Sando, so honest and frank, appreciate all your efforts.
                        Comment
                        • aussieH
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-04-11
                          • 1188

                          #9462
                          Originally posted by sando
                          @Mr_Sando (also my Tennis Insight handle if anyone is a member there).




                          Well in order of how I rank them (not interested in all the jokes and off topic Hollywood crap, just want to talk basketball)


                          1. Hangtime podcast (Sekou Smith and co). Very sharp guys but only 1 per week.
                          2. Eye on Basketball (CBS Sports) Far too much Hollywood crap but when they get around to basketball it's excellent. - Daily
                          3. NBA Lockdown (Bruce Bowen) - Daily
                          4. Believe the Hype - Two Aussies who are rabid NBA fans and very knowledgable - Every couple days?
                          5. The Starters - Again far too much jokes and nonsense but the basketball stuff is good - Daily
                          6. Full Court Press - I love this one but they haven't done one since the pre-season ended



                          Been been listening to the starters (basketball jones) for over a year. Great program. They have also broken through commercially and they deserve the success. All sbr basketball should have a listen and support these guys.
                          Comment
                          • sando
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-30-12
                            • 3723

                            #9463
                            NBA Tuesday

                            4-1 +3.35 units

                            ATS/ML 2-0
                            Team Total's 0-1
                            1st Half 1-0
                            1st Q 1-0

                            NBA Wednesday

                            6-7 -4.21 units

                            ATS/ML 3-2
                            Total's 0-2
                            1st Half Plays 1-2
                            1st Quarter 1-0
                            2nd Half 1-1

                            NBA Thursday

                            2-2 -0.69 units

                            1st Half Plays 0-1
                            1st Quarter 0-1
                            2nd Half 2-0

                            NBA Friday

                            3-8 -7.25 units

                            ATS/ML 0-3
                            Totals 1-3
                            1st Half 1-2
                            Props 1-0

                            NBA Saturday

                            6-3 -0.08 units

                            ATS/ML 2-1
                            Team Totals 0-2
                            1st Quarter 1-0
                            1st Half 1-0
                            2nd Half 2-0

                            NBA Sunday (Today)

                            3-1 +4.15 units

                            ATS/ML 3-0
                            1st Half 0-1

                            _________________________
                            2013/14 NBA Season
                            75-66 +1.36 units

                            ATS/ML 33-25 (All ML plays are dogs so anything over 50% will be considered a success)
                            1st Quarter's 5-2
                            1st Half Plays 13-7
                            2nd Half Plays 14-7
                            Totals 8-17
                            Team Total's 0-5
                            Props 2-3


                            _________________________
                            2012/13 NBA Season
                            290--246--17 +51.47 units
                            _________________________
                            Comment
                            • OMGChoGath
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 04-11-13
                              • 585

                              #9464
                              Wow damn almost 150 in and barely up. I think things will start to heat up for you soon.
                              Comment
                              • coogs08
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 10-30-09
                                • 96

                                #9465
                                best of luck brother...here comes a hot streak!
                                Comment
                                • sando
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-30-12
                                  • 3723

                                  #9466
                                  Originally posted by OMGChoGath
                                  Wow damn almost 150 in and barely up. I think things will start to heat up for you soon.

                                  I'm a high volume guy, swings are inevitable but I can maintain enough of an overall edge to end up on the right side of the ledger.
                                  The problem is I have been hitting most of my 1 unit plays and missing on quite a few of the larger ones (going 6-3 and yet down 0.08 units), usually it's the other way around. Also have really had such poor luck with quite a few of my totals (I was hitting totals at 58% last season), and have had severe bad beats in 3 of my team totals. I understand how it works and I'm sure there will be plenty of games this season when I will pull off back door covers, or 12 points in the final minute to hit an over, etc - but for now is very frustrating.

                                  Matters not, my mindset is the same as it always is. Already feeling good about tomorrow and the upcoming week.



                                  Lining up another big play for tomorrow - will probably post soon to get best line...
                                  Comment
                                  • Cornelius
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 08-03-13
                                    • 288

                                    #9467
                                    Originally posted by sando
                                    I'm a high volume guy, swings are inevitable but I can maintain enough of an overall edge to end up on the right side of the ledger.
                                    The problem is I have been hitting most of my 1 unit plays and missing on quite a few of the larger ones (going 6-3 and yet down 0.08 units), usually it's the other way around. Also have really had such poor luck with quite a few of my totals (I was hitting totals at 58% last season), and have had severe bad beats in 3 of my team totals. I understand how it works and I'm sure there will be plenty of games this season when I will pull off back door covers, or 12 points in the final minute to hit an over, etc - but for now is very frustrating.

                                    Matters not, my mindset is the same as it always is. Already feeling good about tomorrow and the upcoming week.



                                    Lining up another big play for tomorrow - will probably post soon to get best line...
                                    Good examples for the totals was the t-wolves. That was an extremely bad beat!

                                    Good calls today mate, Cheers for the plays
                                    Comment
                                    • davopnz
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-12-12
                                      • 1736

                                      #9468
                                      finally got on a decent roll turned 70 into 400 this weekend, planning on playing small and sensible now because i'm happy with where i'm at money wise
                                      Comment
                                      • rohan22no
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 07-20-11
                                        • 365

                                        #9469
                                        Originally posted by davopnz
                                        finally got on a decent roll turned 70 into 400 this weekend, planning on playing small and sensible now because i'm happy with where i'm at money wise
                                        Keep those periodic updates coming Davo.
                                        Comment
                                        • Any ability?
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 06-28-13
                                          • 13

                                          #9470
                                          Just dropped in to express appreciation Sando.
                                          I'm another Australian, (vic) keen sports and punter but a rookie compared to your knowledge.
                                          Mainly tracked cricket and will enjoy putting in my view on ashes, but happy to do it elsewhere and not hijack your posts
                                          Anyway, keep up the positive input everyone, I'll start with my view when I think I can add value
                                          Comment
                                          • Shazzadude
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 11-28-12
                                            • 443

                                            #9471
                                            Originally posted by Any ability?
                                            Just dropped in to express appreciation Sando.
                                            I'm another Australian, (vic) keen sports and punter but a rookie compared to your knowledge.
                                            Mainly tracked cricket and will enjoy putting in my view on ashes, but happy to do it elsewhere and not hijack your posts
                                            Anyway, keep up the positive input everyone, I'll start with my view when I think I can add value
                                            Go for your life I reckon, this thread is also something of a default home for us Australasians and Australasian sport discussions.
                                            Comment
                                            • RedRightHand
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 11-10-13
                                              • 21

                                              #9472
                                              Originally posted by Any ability?
                                              Just dropped in to express appreciation Sando.
                                              I'm another Australian, (vic) keen sports and punter but a rookie compared to your knowledge.
                                              Mainly tracked cricket and will enjoy putting in my view on ashes, but happy to do it elsewhere and not hijack your posts
                                              Anyway, keep up the positive input everyone, I'll start with my view when I think I can add value
                                              I was going to point you to the cricket forum, but just saw you found it
                                              Comment
                                              • Any ability?
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 06-28-13
                                                • 13

                                                #9473
                                                Yeah just started an ashes thread. Thanks
                                                Not sure how to put hyperlink here but you'll find it..
                                                Will add initial insights tomorrow
                                                Comment
                                                • Cornelius
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 08-03-13
                                                  • 288

                                                  #9474
                                                  Originally posted by davopnz
                                                  finally got on a decent roll turned 70 into 400 this weekend, planning on playing small and sensible now because i'm happy with where i'm at money wise
                                                  Good for you mate. I've seen that have had a rough run for a while. Glad you're winning.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JM92
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-27-12
                                                    • 1140

                                                    #9475
                                                    Originally posted by sando
                                                    I'm a high volume guy, swings are inevitable but I can maintain enough of an overall edge to end up on the right side of the ledger.
                                                    The problem is I have been hitting most of my 1 unit plays and missing on quite a few of the larger ones (going 6-3 and yet down 0.08 units), usually it's the other way around. Also have really had such poor luck with quite a few of my totals (I was hitting totals at 58% last season), and have had severe bad beats in 3 of my team totals. I understand how it works and I'm sure there will be plenty of games this season when I will pull off back door covers, or 12 points in the final minute to hit an over, etc - but for now is very frustrating.

                                                    Matters not, my mindset is the same as it always is. Already feeling good about tomorrow and the upcoming week.



                                                    Lining up another big play for tomorrow - will probably post soon to get best line...
                                                    Hmm can't really see what you might b thinking about. I was going to hammer at least with a 2 U the over on the Mavs x Sixers has I've finally started my totals and am already 4-0 in the overs and feeling confident, but the best line is now far far away. Will have to get my money back onto Pinny or another bookie who releases lines early or I'll keep getting f'ed during my sleep.

                                                    I'll try and guess:

                                                    LAC - 8? or Nuggets + 9 and then some on the ML?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BMoreBird
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 10-26-12
                                                      • 889

                                                      #9476
                                                      respect
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fitguy67
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-13-11
                                                        • 5082

                                                        #9477
                                                        Originally posted by Any ability?
                                                        Yeah just started an ashes thread. Thanks
                                                        Not sure how to put hyperlink here but you'll find it..
                                                        Will add initial insights tomorrow
                                                        Abe, can't find your cricket thread...it's easy to link it to us tho':

                                                        1. when you're on the new thread u created: go to the top of the page where it spells out the URL (the unique name for the page)
                                                        looks like "forum.subforum.com/..............................."

                                                        2. highlight that full name

                                                        3. right-click...then select "copy"

                                                        4. then move to this thread...start a post as usual...and somewhere in the post do this:
                                                        right click/select "paste"...then submit post as usual

                                                        voila!
                                                        Last edited by fitguy67; 11-18-13, 12:04 PM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Any ability?
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 06-28-13
                                                          • 13

                                                          #9478
                                                          Thanks fitguyI'm on iPhone so it's a bit of a pain, but give this a crackhttp://forum.sbrforum.com/cricket-betting/2688788-ashes-cricket-13-14-a-new-post.htmlBy the way, I like your phrase on bet to win.Slow and steady is the only long term way.My issue with cricket will be keeping heart out of it.Being from aust, it will be very hard to back poms.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • sando
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-30-12
                                                            • 3723

                                                            #9479
                                                            Any ability - Welcome


                                                            Finalising NBA plays now...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • RedDevil89
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 05-03-13
                                                              • 334

                                                              #9480
                                                              Originally posted by Any ability?
                                                              Thanks fitguyI'm on iPhone so it's a bit of a pain, but give this a crackhttp://forum.sbrforum.com/cricket-betting/2688788-ashes-cricket-13-14-a-new-post.htmlBy the way, I like your phrase on bet to win.Slow and steady is the only long term way.My issue with cricket will be keeping heart out of it.Being from aust, it will be very hard to back poms.
                                                              Close enough, just put a space before and after you post a link!!

                                                              And Fitguy you can find his thread by clicking the drop down arrow next to his username and clicking on Find latest post by ....
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ExodusNZ
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 09-02-11
                                                                • 605

                                                                #9481
                                                                Great write up Sando.

                                                                Its funny how the new people to the thread are quick to judge, just ignore them. We know how smart you are - You shouldnt have to keep justifying yourself to everyone

                                                                Keep up the great work
                                                                Comment
                                                                • sando
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-30-12
                                                                  • 3723

                                                                  #9482
                                                                  Ok so the big play was going to be on the Warriors ATS however I'm not as sure as I was yesterday so will pass...

                                                                  NBA Monday

                                                                  Philly @ Dallas

                                                                  1* Dallas -4 1st Quarter (-116/$1.86 Pinnacle)
                                                                  1* Dallas 1st Half -6.5 (-112/$1.89 Pinnacle)


                                                                  So the Philly 1st half fades continue, and what better team to continue the trend against than the team that is the 2nd highest 1st Q ppg and the 3rd highest 1st Half ppg. Dallas also has a +3.4 1st Q points differential (#5) and Philly has -8.1 differential (dead last by a long way) . The trends continue with 1st Half differential's with Dallas +3.8 (#7) and Philly still dead last at -8.5 1st Half differential.


                                                                  More to follow...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Puda
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-26-10
                                                                    • 1798

                                                                    #9483
                                                                    gl sando.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • freeeze
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 04-12-11
                                                                      • 363

                                                                      #9484
                                                                      Originally posted by sando
                                                                      Ok so the big play was going to be on the Warriors ATS however I'm not as sure as I was yesterday so will pass...
                                                                      Because of the RLM ? It kinda seems like a good spot for Utah but I'm not sure this team can be trusted at all.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JM92
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-27-12
                                                                        • 1140

                                                                        #9485
                                                                        too high for a road team on my book, at least to make a big bet. I actually have a slight lean on the Jazz but I will wait to make a final play. Just one of those teams that has players too unstable and inconsistent for my taste, to be betting them against contenders like the Warriors.
                                                                        Comment
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