Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

4 Team Parlay

8/3/13 7:00pm ATP Tennis 201 Juan Martin del Potro -375* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Tommy Haas

8/3/13 3:00pm ATP Tennis 222 John Isner -355* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Dmitry Tursunov

8/3/13 10:00pm WTA Tennis 422 Samantha Stosur -390* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Virginie Razzano

8/3/13 3:15pm Qualifying Tennis 928 Michael Russell -450* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Steven Diez

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 08-03-13, 09:06 AM

got buried with a 9-26 4th q from the phillos. i must run before I satisfy that cardinal rule haha

**fitguy67** · 08-03-13, 09:31 AM

davo, wait till u run up a meaningful stake (1k minimum)...then follow the words under my handle (keep that definition of "small %" fixed at 2% or less of latest account peak until next account peak is hit...then recalculate that same small fixed % unit size...rinse/lather/repeat)...never "pound" anything...bet TO WIN (not risk) your latest $definition of 1 unit on anything and everything, including parlays and you'll never go even near busto and if your picks are halfway decent you will, with patience, keep rising to higher and higher peaks as time goes on...not exciting but beats recurring dreadful remorse-hangovers

**BetaB** · 08-03-13, 10:55 AM

315426834-1 7	7:57am 3-Aug-13	4:05pm 3-Aug-13	Tennis Game Spread	J.M. Del Potro vs T. Haas (+4) for Match.	+104	12.00	12.48	Pending
315426834-2 8	7:57am 3-Aug-13	12:05pm 3-Aug-13	Tennis Game Spread	D. Tursunov (+2.5) vs J. Isner for Match.	+106	12.00	12.72	Pending

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-03-13, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

thats unreal man

i know i have a real money management problem but i have the knowledge to be successful, its like i need a manager or something lol. just so pissed with myself right now, think i need to set a loss limit on my acc or something, i just end up doing stupid shit.

Sit down a write out a set of rules for you to follow when you're gambling based upon your goals.

**Coopertrooper** · 08-03-13, 12:19 PM

Davo, it sounds like the problem you're having at the moment is chasing your losses too quickly. A loss limit for a day can be tough to keep to, but you need to keep things in check. I found that when I was first having a few bets, I never bothered to record what I was betting. I thought I was doing alright over a period of a few months and felt like I was doing well enough to break even. But, when I went back through my account records, I found I was down 1-2k. I didn't have the will to work out how many plays I was winning and losing after this, but reality hit me that I had to simply be losing less than I thought I was. Even if I went at 45% with my picks ATS or on totals, it just simply wasn't good enough, and meant losses at the end of the day.
　
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At that point, I decided I could only bet on sports where I could pick at above 50% (or could get parlay bets/larger odds bets/props home enough to make a profit). I didn't have a huge range of sports, but it taught me to seriously cut back on betting on the horses until I could do the form well enough to make profits, which I found difficult to do, so I just had to cut it right back. I could then focus on extracting profit on the AFL and the occasional NRL bet, often taking on board the advice of PROVEN winners (ie info from guys whom I had watched over their record for a while to verify that they were capable of making sustainable profits).
　
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So, simply put, you have to A) Be honest with yourself about how good your record is. You may find it wasn't as good as you thought, as we all naturally tend to focus on our good calls, and forget about our bad calls when they are 'unlucky'. If you find your plays are pretty good, then it does come down to B) 'Bankroll management'. I tend to view this a little differently to some, as I'm quite young myself and am still studying, so I can't build a massive bankroll where I can bet 1% and be happy with the bet size (I tend to use $50 units, although sometimes I catch myself getting a bit out of check playing $100 for a unit without thinking), and I think that a percentage of your capital being stuck to is not absolutely vital. However, it needs to be in check to an extent. You can't try to bet 50% of what you have every week. If your picks are going at, say, 60% and you're losing, you have to look at how often you are going big. Despite hitting at 60%, a good capper can throw it all away chasing losses and losing big on the 40%, while only winning small on the 60%. It is essential to keep 95% of your plays in the same range (I tend to stay in 0.5-2 unit range), with the occasional play that may be 4 or 5 units, with 5 the absolute max.
　
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If you do both of those, then you'll either find you can turn things around, or that your plays are not hitting enough to justify the continued outlay of cash. If you are happy with a $50 bet size, spend a few weeks building up a bank of $1,000 and sticking to that. Don't go tilt, and you will find that you won't sap cash as fast. Even if you lose over a period of time, you might lose $200-$300 in a month and bringing your bank down to $700, without having to keep putting $200 a week and bringing it back down to $0. Once you can limit your losing months, then you can start looking to bring things back around, or even with a good run you can start making profits straight away, just from using a different system. Hope some of that helps!

**rohan22no** · 08-03-13, 12:26 PM

Davo has been given all the advice he needs, I wrote him up a gameplan a month or so back in this thread of EXACTLY what he needed to do to ensure he built a BR and didn't go broke. He chose to ignore my (and others) comprehensive advice and has now paid the price.

Sorry to be harsh, I'm all for supporting each other but there is only so much you can do. This is a place for sports investors and posting +EV tips and techniques, not a support group for problem gamblers.

**ender749** · 08-03-13, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by TheMLBKing

I've learned the hard way. Hawthorn -28.5 and they're losing by 36. Wht annoys me is this guy ignores me when I ask him for advice, which is why I get so enraged. I should've hedged on this

I don't post much here but your constant tirades against Sando really annoy me so here goes. I have nothing against you personally but you really have to stop the whining and start to show a little bit of respect to Sando and to the forum.

Every time you lose a bet while tailing you start to cry about how much money you've lost tailing Sando. As OznBa Fan says, just stop and leave then. It is pretty clear Sando has an amazing long time record here and he is gracious enough to share his tips (instead of selling them which he could do). As a clearly experienced sports investor, surely you know that upsets happen. We all have sick stories to tell. Favourites lose. Shit happens. Grow up.

Sando isn't your personal sports advisor. You don't pay him anything. The guy has been capping a ton of different sports this weekend and is clearly short on time. He didn't reply to your post about hedging and you blow a gasket. (To me, the answer to that question was simply a question of how much variance you wanted - I would have probably hedged even though my EV would have been lower by hedging. Sando had already given his view on those games so you either take that or not. You can't get a guarantee that x or y team will win)

If you are enraged with Sando for not replying to you, you can send him a personal message. Writing about him in the third person ON HIS THREAD is a real joke.

And for what it's worth, I'm sorry about your parlay. It really sucks when you lose the last one or two like that.

**Grunch** · 08-03-13, 01:37 PM

Hedging on a parlay is just retarded. If you win a few games and suddenly decide to hedge because it's too much money then why did you include those last games in the first place? You're just paying rake when you include those games and then paying for a second time when you hedge out. And when you place bets on games you know nothing about that is your responsibility and yours alone. It's ridiculous to blame other people because you are randomly placing bets and don't know what the hell you're doing.

**ExodusNZ** · 08-03-13, 04:19 PM

Wow some very interesting reading there!

Back to the NRL.

Tigers ML
Or Tigers ATS??

I think they can do it today

**alias69** · 08-03-13, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by davopnz

im thinking a break until august 15th for me is a good idea(start on itm cup)

I think u need to find a new hobby champ. Obviously gambling has absorbed ur life n emotions. Take a step back b4 it kills u.

**locsports** · 08-03-13, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by Grunch

Amazing that this hit. I was sure they were going to keep fouling when they were down 7 with 14 seconds to go. I've taken so many bad beats on under bets on situations like this that I'm always sure they're going for the "keep fouling until last second even if there's no chance in hell of winning the game" strategy. I'm glad they only went with it until 14 seconds left.

And how did they score 69 points in the last quarter in that tulsa game? The level of inconsistency in beaver ball is bizarre. Anyway, very nice hits trigga!

As a general rule of thumb in Basketball Teams tend to stop playing the foul game when they are trailing by 7+ points, hence 7 is a key number in basketball. So Ive been told and also observed.

**hawley** · 08-03-13, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by alias69

I think u need to find a new hobby champ. Obviously gambling has absorbed ur life n emotions. Take a step back b4 it kills u.

This.

Walk away for a good period of time and learn to do it properly or just give it up.

**davopnz** · 08-03-13, 07:19 PM

Thanks for all the replies and I agree it has absorbed me too much and I plan on having a break until at least the 15th

**MatI** · 08-03-13, 07:25 PM

Davo. I think you should try for 100 days - http://www.fightforyou.com.au/

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-03-13, 07:58 PM

anything on the nrl today sando?

**the tross** · 08-03-13, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by davopnz

Thanks for all the replies and I agree it has absorbed me too much and I plan on having a break until at least the 15th

I read a while back that you and Sando were looking forward to ITM Cup and i was looking forward to your plays. Take a look at Mr Rabbitbrew, he knows Netball and his plays move lines . If you cant stop gambling then stick to what you know and bet small % on the one sport you know and love. Hang in there buddy.

**trigga50** · 08-03-13, 08:37 PM

WNBA

Atlanta VS Phoenix
Atlanta are a reasonable defensive team and have not had much offence lately without injured star Lyttle. Phoenix on the other hand have been struggling as of late after having a flying start to their season, they have not lost 6 out of their last 10 games. Grines was out injured for some of those losses but generally they are out of form. They have slipped from the #1 offensive team putting up more than 85 points a game down to 78PPG over their last 8 games. Atlanta should keep Phoenix within a reasonable total today and Atlantas offence will either win or lose them the game. Game total has been posted at 167.5 , which is a typical reaction to Phoenix as they are known as a high scoring team. Im expecting both teams to stay under 80 points tonight.

UNDER 167.5 @$1.91 X 2 UNITS to win 1.82 UNITS

Game starts in 25mins, sorry for late post!

**davopnz** · 08-03-13, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by the tross

I read a while back that you and Sando were looking forward to ITM Cup and i was looking forward to your plays. Take a look at Mr Rabbitbrew, he knows Netball and his plays move lines . If you cant stop gambling then stick to what you know and bet small % on the one sport you know and love. Hang in there buddy.

It's not that I can't stop gambling it's my lack of self control when I do gamble. Like I can go all week without an urge to bet on random crap I have no idea about but when I do gamble I go for glory, unfortunately.

I still am looking forward to ITM cup and I think it's important while I take this break that I need to formulate a plan of attack/goals written in word that I stick to.

I would consider the 100 day challenge but I know I can make money on ITM cup and NFL which are both starting very soon + Rugby Internationals. Like I say I have the knowledge just not the smarts with my money(think professional athlete without a manager) which is what I need to attain.

I will likely only have a $200 roll come the 15th which some may say I'm making a mistake again but I believe if I use say $20 units my plays will be good enough to make money.

I will say this, I'm 19 and I only work part time currently, I'm liking going to study IT next year(semi having a gap year this year) $1000 is not easy to abtain right now unless I win it through gambling which I have done in the past, I started gambling when I was 16 without a job and I have very little work last year and at one point I had won 3k by methodic plays, but of course once I got to 3k I started doing $500 plays....and you know where that led me.

Bottom line, what I'm trying to say is I believe in myself to consistently win, if I use money management.

**marshmellow** · 08-03-13, 11:50 PM

**marshmellow** · 08-03-13, 11:52 PM

a tiny achievement for today

**marshmellow** · 08-04-13, 12:14 AM

Same here...except for the fact I'm 21..tried to work but my back got me killed and I'm advised to take rest for at least a month. I need to pay bills,a focking 7k for the semester!! I simply cannot do anything right now. Saved a 1000 in June..started with them in the second week of July, followed the textbook rules of 2-5% per bet and stuff..It was hard..really hard but I ended up making 3k in 2 weeks and BOOM I blew them off in one night!!! I've been gambling for 5 years now this has been the routine every single time. I got lucky sometimes but 70% I lost. I did start again with a 100 the same night..I did well and I'm 300 right now (barely 2 days) and I wish I don't do sick stuff again. To make something substantial out of this one needs to have the patience of a saint or some really sick ,retarded focking luck.

**davopnz** · 08-04-13, 12:43 AM

hold onto that money you have man, thats a good building block.

i truly feel as though this time i've learn a good life lesson, i've been through to rough times in my personal life lately and it felt like last night/this morning was rock bottom. i got my ass out of bet this morning and went out with some mates today and feel the world better and feel really for the next challenge.

**angelo63** · 08-04-13, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

hold onto that money you have man, thats a good building block.

i truly feel as though this time i've learn a good life lesson, i've been through to rough times in my personal life lately and it felt like last night/this morning was rock bottom. i got my ass out of bet this morning and went out with some mates today and feel the world better and feel really for the next challenge.

Buddy, I didnt realise your only 19, You have plenty of time to hone your betting skills. You cant buy experience but your very lucky your here as the advice your getting is going to set you on the right path, WE have all been where you are , I have lost a lot more in my teens and twenties than i can ever count , experience has taught me humility and patience. Start with the $20 bets, next step the $25 bets and build up slowly , as long a sit is forward progress.

**davopnz** · 08-04-13, 01:32 AM

Thanks man, words of encouragement sure do help. If I were to start with $200 at what sum would you suggest raising to $25?

**TheMLBKing** · 08-04-13, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by ender749

I don't post much here but your constant tirades against Sando really annoy me so here goes. I have nothing against you personally but you really have to stop the whining and start to show a little bit of respect to Sando and to the forum.

Every time you lose a bet while tailing you start to cry about how much money you've lost tailing Sando. As OznBa Fan says, just stop and leave then. It is pretty clear Sando has an amazing long time record here and he is gracious enough to share his tips (instead of selling them which he could do). As a clearly experienced sports investor, surely you know that upsets happen. We all have sick stories to tell. Favourites lose. Shit happens. Grow up.

Sando isn't your personal sports advisor. You don't pay him anything. The guy has been capping a ton of different sports this weekend and is clearly short on time. He didn't reply to your post about hedging and you blow a gasket. (To me, the answer to that question was simply a question of how much variance you wanted - I would have probably hedged even though my EV would have been lower by hedging. Sando had already given his view on those games so you either take that or not. You can't get a guarantee that x or y team will win)

If you are enraged with Sando for not replying to you, you can send him a personal message. Writing about him in the third person ON HIS THREAD is a real joke.

And for what it's worth, I'm sorry about your parlay. It really sucks when you lose the last one or two like that.

lol I don't care bro. I was annoyed last night after 2 similarly handsome parlays (paying 15:1 and 25:1) got mushed by 1 run each in baseball. But I'm bake now. ain't even mad.

**angelo63** · 08-04-13, 01:58 AM

250 just work up to 10% of your bank and when you get over 500 stick to 50 dollar bets untill you hit 2000. Then try 66 dollar bets up to 3000, 77 to 7000, 88 to 10000

**davopnz** · 08-04-13, 02:21 AM

Originally posted by angelo63

250 just work up to 10% of your bank and when you get over 500 stick to 50 dollar bets untill you hit 2000. Then try 66 dollar bets up to 3000, 77 to 7000, 88 to 10000

thanks a tonne man, gives me some guidelines

**SonSquad** · 08-04-13, 03:23 AM

Damn Sando close one

thanks buddy!

I would like to share a pick myself. Danish 1. Div
Vendsyssel - Horsens, pick Horsens @1,72 bet365 8/10 units

Personally I know players on both teams and while the Horsens players are full of confidence and assurence they can take all 3 points the mood in Vendsyssel is the opposite. the two players I know both told me that they will need a miracle to get a point from this matchup.Horsens was moved from the danish premier league to 1.div last season and have a squad with plenty of quality. The begun the season with a solid performance that shoved the hard work they did preseason.

Good luck guys

**nosibalasinoypi** · 08-04-13, 03:36 AM

Thanks sando is all I can say.

that miracle goal saved my bankroll.

Damn I still cant believe port adelaide pulled that miraculous win

Thanks again

**aussieH** · 08-04-13, 05:17 AM

Unbelievable bounce on that goal. Not really a believer in the spirit world but maybe McCarthy somehow influenced that bounce.

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-04-13, 05:37 AM

anything in the WNBA trigga??

**ender749** · 08-04-13, 05:59 AM

Originally posted by SonSquad

Damn Sando close one

thanks buddy!

I would like to share a pick myself. Danish 1. Div
Vendsyssel - Horsens, pick Horsens @1,72 bet365 8/10 units

Personally I know players on both teams and while the Horsens players are full of confidence and assurence they can take all 3 points the mood in Vendsyssel is the opposite. the two players I know both told me that they will need a miracle to get a point from this matchup.Horsens was moved from the danish premier league to 1.div last season and have a squad with plenty of quality. The begun the season with a solid performance that shoved the hard work they did preseason.

Good luck guys

thanks! always great to have some real insight into team's morale etc. good luck!

**MrXYZ** · 08-04-13, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by rohan22no

Davo has been given all the advice he needs, I wrote him up a gameplan a month or so back in this thread of EXACTLY what he needed to do to ensure he built a BR and didn't go broke. He chose to ignore my (and others) comprehensive advice and has now paid the price.

Sorry to be harsh, I'm all for supporting each other but there is only so much you can do. This is a place for sports investors and posting +EV tips and techniques, not a support group for problem gamblers.

The psychological part of the game is much more difficult to master than crunching numbers & stats. Knew a guy who was very bright (taught himself programming and scored a top job without even having a degree) but took losses too personally and always got trapped in the cycle of chasing. He was a hardcore MLB bettor that should've known better but couldn't handle the tough beats in that sport.

I've enjoyed reading this discussion, thanks everyone for contributing. Back to sports, I'm liking the Under in tomorrow night's Bulldogs vs Dragons NRL game.

**trigga50** · 08-04-13, 07:08 AM

WNBA +16.96

Another good day in WNBA, would have been better if I didn't sleep in so late and got onto the earlier games. Still aiming for that 20+ unit size by the seasons end.

Got some plays to come, Im just starting to look at them now. The second half of the season is great because a lot of the teams have not yet played each other (east vs west etc) Hence many of the bookies lines are based on last seasons stats rather than current trends.

**rohan22no** · 08-04-13, 07:35 AM

WTF!

i turned off the port/crows game halfway thru last quarter...only just logged onto forums and saw the result just now...unreal! Sometimes sports are fun