Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[OZnBa Fan]

Any tennis plays??

[dioforce]

Any tennis plays??

I respect this man's directness. Most people will allude to potential plays. Not this guy.

[trayman]

Man, nice shot at Utah under

0.5pt for the win!

[sando]

Should have known better than to open my mouth like an amateur "it's going to be a good day in the NBA today boys" what a chump. As soon as i posted that, Nola literally went on a 10-0 run to smash the cover in the Dallas game. Did finish the day 4-3 and up about 1 unit but not what I would call a "good day" by any stretch of the imagination.

Just didn't have time today to properly research my tennis plays and I won't play/post something just for the action. Every play in NBA and tennis has research behind it or a perceived edge. Of course a lot of the time I am wrong with my reasoning, but regardless if I don't have the time to put in work then I won't play anything. Just had time for the one play myself on Dimitrov/Murray over 21, was an obvious pick IMO and I hoped others played either the over or Dimitrov +4.5 as well. Was going to post the play of course but got very busy and by the time I went post it was 5 minutes before the match and I didnt think it would be very nice to post a play that people would miss anyway.

So the good news is I have half a dozen nice tennis plays lined up for tomorrow and I will post my whole tennis card for the next 24hrs in 3-4 hours from now, once I get home.

[thewhiteguy]

Should have known better than to open my mouth like an amateur "it's going to be a good day in the NBA today boys" what a chump. As soon as i posted that, Nola literally went on a 10-0 run to smash the cover in the Dallas game. Did finish the day 4-3 and up about 1 unit but not what I would call a "good day" by any stretch of the imagination.

Just didn't have time today to properly research my tennis plays and I won't play/post something just for the action. Every play in NBA and tennis has research behind it or a perceived edge. Of course a lot of the time I am wrong with my reasoning, but regardless if I don't have the time to put in work then I won't play anything. Just had time for the one play myself on Dimitrov/Murray over 21, was an obvious pick IMO and I hoped others played either the over or Dimitrov +4.5 as well. Was going to post the play of course but got very busy and by the time I went post it was 5 minutes before the match and I didnt think it would be very nice to post a play that people would miss anyway.

So the good news is I have half a dozen nice tennis plays lined up for tomorrow and I will post my whole tennis card for the next 24hrs in 3-4 hours from now, once I get home.

Thanks Sando!!! Now I know when to set my alarm!!

[vessl]

Nvm.

[thorny]

Should have known better than to open my mouth like an amateur "it's going to be a good day in the NBA today boys" what a chump. As soon as i posted that, Nola literally went on a 10-0 run to smash the cover in the Dallas game. Did finish the day 4-3 and up about 1 unit but not what I would call a "good day" by any stretch of the imagination.

Just didn't have time today to properly research my tennis plays and I won't play/post something just for the action. Every play in NBA and tennis has research behind it or a perceived edge. Of course a lot of the time I am wrong with my reasoning, but regardless if I don't have the time to put in work then I won't play anything. Just had time for the one play myself on Dimitrov/Murray over 21, was an obvious pick IMO and I hoped others played either the over or Dimitrov +4.5 as well. Was going to post the play of course but got very busy and by the time I went post it was 5 minutes before the match and I didnt think it would be very nice to post a play that people would miss anyway.

So the good news is I have half a dozen nice tennis plays lined up for tomorrow and I will post my whole tennis card for the next 24hrs in 3-4 hours from now, once I get home.

haha a classic jinx...but that's nba and tennis even for that matter. got on Dimitrov +4.5 and he looked very good, few things he'll need to work on and he can go on to defeat the world's best players.

[MrXYZ]

Thanks for your hard work Sando. A winning day's a great result considering some of the crazy s##t we saw in the NBA. Clips were unstoppable, one of the best 1st halves I've ever seen a team play.

[sando]

Ok tennis time, let's roll...

Tennis

ATP Chennai (Final)

Tipsarevic v Bautista Agut
Bautista Agut +5 (-117, $1.85 Pinnacle) 2.5x
*I'm also playing RBA m/l for 0.5 units (+421, $5.21 Pinny) and would recommend those with a higher risk tolerance to also play the m/l, perhaps for 0.25 units.

ATP Auckland

Soeda v Giraldo
Soeda m/l (+118, $2.18 Pinnacle) 1x

Paire v Lu
Paire m/l (+127, $2.27 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*Correction made. Pinny has better odds than Bet 365 on this one.


ATP Sydney

Sousa v Mayer
Sousa +4.5 (+103, $2.03 Pinnacle) 1x
Adding another 0.5 unit to Sousa +5 (-103, $1.97 Pinnacle) for a total of 1.5 units on the play. (First play was Sousa +4.5 1x).

*Love fading Mayer.

Florian Mayer has lost 5 of last 6 overall.Florian Mayer has lost 4 of last 5 at ATP level.

1-3 last 4 as favorite.

Lost to Marcos Baghdatis(36,3.23) (CYP) 6-4 6-2 $2.756 Def. Santiago Giraldo(57,2.55) (COL) 6-4 6-4 $1.481 Lost to (q)Alejandro Falla(56,1.03) (COL) 7-6(3) 6-2 $1.725 Lost to Marinko Matosevic(51,1.50) (AUS) 6-2 6-3 $1.445 Lost to Richard Berankis(95,1.37) (LTU) 4-6 6-4 6-2 $1.564

WTA Sydney

Keys v Safarova
Keys +3.5 (Evens, $2.00 Bet 365) 1.5x
Keys m/l (+200, $3.00 Bet 365) 0.5x
*Keys is one of the up and coming talents on the WTA and along with Sloane Stevens is expected to carry American tennis forward and out of the cavernous black hole that the inevitable departure of the Williams sisters will leave. I stupidly went against my instincts to back her (against Larsson) the other day as I felt the price (-133) was a bit short. Fatarova has lost 4 of her last 6 as a favorite including stinkers against Niculescu (6-2 6-0 as a -588 favorite) and Arvidsson (3-6 6-2 7-5 as a -270 favorite). Keys can win this match, although if the seldom seen "real" Fatarova turns up, then Lucie will definitely win, however the good news is Keys has no problem with power hitters (see below). Will be very suprised if she (Keys) does not win a set, and hence then cover the spread.

Lucie Safarova has lost 4 of last 5 at WTA Premier level.
Madison Keys has won 9 of last 10 overall.
Madison Keys has won 4 of last 5 in Oceania.
Madison Keys has won 9 of last 10 on Hard Court.
Madison Keys has won 5 of last 6 at WTA Premier level.
Madison Keys has won 5 in a row when Opponent is a Big Server. (Big server in WTA almost always means big hitter as well).

Li v McHale
McHale +4.5 (-104, $1.96 Pinnacle) 1x

WTA Hobart

Gajdosova v Oprandi
Oprandi m/l (-104, $1.96 IAS/Sportsbet) 0.5x
*I know very little about Oprandi except that she has recent wins over Ivanovic and (Ursula) Radwanska, and that she looks like a man. All jokes aside, this is simply a "fade Jarmilla" play. I stupidly thought she had turned the corner after that win over Vinci a few days ago (her only win in her last 11 matches). Clearly she can't handle the pressure of playing in Australia. Just half a unit on this one as my knowledge of Oprandi is not sufficient.

Jarmila Gajdosova has lost 10 of last 11 overall.
Jarmila Gajdosova has lost 10 of last 11 on Hard Court.
Jarmila Gajdosova has won 7 of last 8 at Hobart WTA.
Jarmila Gajdosova has lost 4 in a row at WTA International level.
Jarmila Gajdosova has lost 8 of last 9 when Opponent is a Big Server.
Jarmila Gajdosova has lost 8 in a row when priced as Underdog ($2.00 to $2.999).

Pironkova v Begu
Begu m/l (-123, $1.81 Pinnacle) 1x
*Begu is the superior hard court player.

Tsvetana Pironkova has lost 4 of last 5 overall.Irina Begu has won 6 of last 7 on Hard Court.

[brainfreeze0]

Sando what are your thoughts on OKC/ Toronto tomorrow if you had to call it even if not one of your picks?

[qwe123]

Sando what would be your play for RBA at +4.5? 365 and Sportsbet only offer up to that.

[sando]

Sando what are your thoughts on OKC/ Toronto tomorrow if you had to call it even if not one of your picks?

Mate when I just did my spreads I capped it at -8 to -8.5 OKC, I have a feeling the Thunder will roll right through the Raptors tomorrow and actually I am considering a play on it. Line has already come into -6.5, which is a bit strange as seems the majority of money is coming in on the Thunder, but regardless if it somehow comes down to -6 (which I doubt) I will most likely pounce on it. Haven't put any time into the game however, as in Tennis mode at the moment. Good luck.

Sando what would be your play for RBA at +4.5? 365 and Sportsbet only offer up to that.

1.5 units at $1.95 or better.

[Byrone09]

Dang I don't see either of those ATP Auckland matches on 5D. What times are these matches? I'm hoping they just aren't up yet...

5D has OKC at -7.5. Not many games tomorrow. I like Bobcats-Pistons u193.5 so far though.

Oh. I see the Heineken open matches are over 12 hours away. Hopefully they're up when I wake up. Thanks.

[qwe123]

Thanks a lot for the prompt response. Bet365 had a very generous 2.20 on RBA +4.5 so I put down 1.5 units, although based on what you said maybe you would have advised a larger bet.

[Pacu]

Dang I don't see either of those ATP Auckland matches on 5D. What times are these matches? I'm hoping they just aren't up yet...

5D has OKC at -7.5. Not many games tomorrow. I like Bobcats-Pistons u193.5 so far though.

08.01 00:00 in my time zone ( gmt +1 ).

[brainfreeze0]

Mate when I just did my spreads I capped it at -8 to -8.5 OKC, I have a feeling the Thunder will roll right through the Raptors tomorrow and actually I am considering a play on it. Line has already come into -6.5, which is a bit strange as seems the majority of money is coming in on the Thunder, but regardless if it somehow comes down to -6 (which I doubt) I will most likely pounce on it.

Agreed. Sometimes I wonder if Vegas does these strange lines in order to attract the sharps. I remember first game of the season Philly/ NYK it was -6 Knicks who rolled right through them at home for double digits. The very next night it was NYK/ Philly -4 both having played the night before, first game of season and both traveling back. Now all of a sudden NYK were a 10 point dog to the night befores spread when both teams faced the same conditions except Philly's stadium was worth 10 points more to Philly (from +6 to -4). Took NYK who again rolled Philly for double digits. However, you should have seen all of the sharps who were in that thread swearing Philly was taking it that night for whatever reason.

Thanks for chiming bro. Those are some good lines. Best I saw was OKC -7 which I bought up a nice chunk of. Are those local or online book?

[sando]

Agreed. Sometimes I wonder if Vegas does these strange lines in order to attract the sharps. I remember first game of the season Philly/ NYK it was -6 Knicks who rolled right through them at home for double digits. The very next night it was NYK/ Philly -4 both having played the night before, first game of season and both traveling back. Now all of a sudden NYK were a 10 point dog to the night befores spread when both teams faced the same conditions except Philly's stadium was worth 10 points more to Philly (from +6 to -4). Took NYK who again rolled Philly for double digits. However, you should have seen all of the sharps who were in that thread swearing Philly was taking it that night for whatever reason.

Thanks for chiming bro. Those are some good lines. Best I saw was OKC -7 which I bought up a nice chunk of. Are those local or online book?

Haha I remember those two Philly/NY games well. I was in the same boat as you and it was a great start to the NBA season for me.
Sportingbet/Centrebet -6.5 (-108)

[brainfreeze0]

Haha I remember those two Philly/NY games well. I was in the same boat as you and it was a great start to the NBA season for me.
Sportingbet/Centrebet -6.5 (-108)

Sweet man thanx!

[Djoking]

GL this Keys M. i like how he playing and its really talent girl!

[Tommy_de1st]

Sando, do you bet soccer as well?

[OZnBa Fan]

great start for Bautista in the tennis sando

[therealdealau]

Tennis god

[Raskal]

Agreed with real deal

[OZnBa Fan]

can tennis

[elPkay]

Sando, do you bet soccer as well?

Quoting Sando from a few days ago. Was gone very fast in all the postings in here over the last few days.

Absolutely. It's my most profitable sport, has been for 3 years. If I had to rate them in terms of experince/profitability I would say
1. AFL
2. Tennis
3. NBA
4. NRL
and then Boxing/MMA, Rugby (Union), and Netball are the only other sports I really wager on.

i can't find the spread on Keys on Pinnacle or Sportingbet. Got the ML but that's all I found on pinny.

Should we go now with the best we can get on OKC since the line will move against us?

[ShotgunRua]

Sando for president!

[kilrathi]

i think we have to wait for the keys spread because there is still much time left until game starts

[thewhiteguy]

ARGH I missed the Bautista match

[qwe123]

That double fault...

[sando]

Long season. Stay focused. Keep grinding.

4-3 Today in the NBA +1.63 Units

NBA 153-116-11 (+44.43 Units) 56.9%

(NBA ATS/ML 112-86-8 YTD) 56.6%

(NBA Totals 41-30-3 YTD) 57.7%

YTD 13-11

Unofficial NBA prop bets YTD 5-4

Unofficial NBA Parlays YTD 1-1

Unofficial NBA Teaser's YTD 0-1

________________________________________ ______________

2-4 Yesterday in the Tennis -3.3 Units

Tennis 47-35-5 (57.3%) +24.56 Units - 2 Pending

YTD - 14-9-1 (60.9%)

*Also lost the 2x Futures bet on Serbia and the 0.5x Futures bet on USA (although some books would have refunded the USA bets as they withdrew from the tournament with injury)
________________________________________ _____________

All time SBR Picks

MMA 6-7 (+12.06 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units) *See spreadsheet

**Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum<!-- Point Me Log -->

[OZnBa Fan]

ARGH I missed the Bautista match

Won the first set 6-3 then lost the next two sets 1-6 3-6 so it's a push for the spread

[sheps88]

Unbelievable how you can drop 8 games in the final 2 sets is ridiculous. Atleast it was a push but definitely hard to settle with that.

[thorny]

Sando, I agree with Keys and Sloane as future for USA Womens. What do you make of McHale? You think she still has potential?

[sando]

Unbelievable how you can drop 8 games in the final 2 sets is ridiculous. Atleast it was a push but definitely hard to settle with that.

He got an abdominal injury in the second set, took an extended medical time out, looked like he was going to retire, but this kid has heart (unlike Tipsarevic) and he gutted it out, although his 1st serves dropped over 20 kph and he was hitting for the edges every point, trying to keep the rally's short. It's very frustrating but actually we were lucky to get the push once he got injured.

[sheps88]

Thanks Sando for the clarification. Sucks that twice now in 2 days what seemed like for sure cashes were cut short by injuries.

Yeah I understand that for sure cashes are only when the game is over.