Whenever I have money on a dog and he takes the first set I generally hedge at that point. Odds fluctuate so much during the match it's crazy not to.
-
Comment -
Thanks for the tennis picks Sando. Tailed on all - really surprised my local bookie had all of them considering the coverage they had earlier for Brisbane (or lack there of I suppose)Comment -
What is hedging? And is it possible on 5dimes?Comment -
Nothing complicated.
-Let's say the odds for the underdog are +250 and you decide to place a bet on him.
-If he wins the first set go to the 'live betting' or 'in play' section and check the odds. Now that the guy has won a set and is possibly several games up, he'll now be the favourite as the bookies deem him more likely to win at that point.
-Chances are the guy you bet against is now around +250 as he has an uphill battle ahead.
-Place a bet on the other guy to at least return enough to pay back your original wager and your first bet is now risk free. If the odds have drifted enough you should be able to place a bet which will result in your making profit regardless of winner.
*Do not do this with soccer as draws/ties are frequent*Comment -
A hedge is a bet intended to offset potential losses, its used to reduce any substantial losses...
So what ShotgunRua is stating is that you place a bet on the favourite at end of 1st set if the dog wins that set as the favourite's odds would be higher than a pre-game bet.Comment -
I think hedging is generally minus ROI, but I am not interested in listening or talking about it.Comment -
Yeah I do this as well! If you had the time to dedicate to it you could really play the books in live betting. For the over goals I often choose a bet I like, then try not to place it until 10-15 minutes in to the game. It's amazing the difference it makes to the return despite very few goals actually being scored during this portion of the match.Comment -
Fair enough, sometimes though after the first set your guy might look exhausted or may appear to be crumbling despite being ahead in terms of scores. Often you can foresee a potential momentum change and if you're worried about your original bet it is sometimes better to guarantee some return rather than have a chance of a larger win.Comment -
If you do it on a spot by spot basis, not all the time, then it can be used as a tool.Comment -
I like hedging favorites too. Davy vs Gasquet I was on Davy -145 and was able to get Gasquet +1350. Very little money being thrown away when you hedge your faves b/c that dog # goes through the roof. That was just one of the rare times it was a good idea to follow through w/ itComment -
Trivial question. Are your plays to win or to risk?Comment -
Betfair is best for hedging (shotgun knows what im talking about, don't you?) but unfortunately for americans, they can't use itComment -
NBA Sunday
Un-believable. I was exhausted after the tennis work and fell asleep literally as I was posting my NBA card, which at the time was only 2 x plays. Thunder -6.5 and Detroit 1st Half over. If you go back a page or two you will see the conversation between myself and brain freeze about where I was taking OKC so I hope some of you played it just based on that even though I didn't post the play.
Memphis @ Phoenix
Grizzlies -4 (-109, $1.91 Sportingbet) 2x
*Some books still have -4, if not recommend buy the hook or PYOL for no worse than -117. This should be a low scoring game but the total has already been pounded under too much for my liking. There is a small chance of the hook coming into play but I think the Griz will build a nice lead throughout the game and as long as their 4th quarter woes don't continue then they should be able to hang onto it. My instincts tell me Z-Bo will play, the Griz need him and there is nothing really that wrong with him. Scola a solid defender but him and Gortat should struggle against the Griz low post game, expect Conley to feed the post a lot. Phoenix struggles against solid defensive teams, see how Dragic likes the Memphis perimeter D while he tries dancing around the perimeter doing his best Steve Nash impersonation while he looks for angles, yet Conley will not allow that, and Allen will make life difficult for Brown/Dudley, Suns 2 most dangerous players who both thrive on having space, especially Dudley for his pull up J, Griz match up great with the Suns and we are getting nice value as the books and a lot of the public have written Memphis off. These guys are slumping but they will sort it out, too big, too much talent, solid coach. I am still a believer, they will be a force in the West come play-offs, nobody will want to play them, especially the Thunder, Lakers and Spurs. (A team that comes out alive from a 7 game play off series with the Griz will probably resemble a casualty ward in a field hospital).
**If your book only gives -4.5 option then play is good for 1-1.5 units.
NBA Totals
Charlotte @ Detroit
1st Half Over 97.5 (-110, $1.90 Pinnacle) 1x
*Pistons are a high scoring 1st half team, especially at home, and the Bobcats give up the most 1st half points in the league.
Over 194 (-109, $1.91 Sportingbet) 1xLast edited by sando; 01-06-13, 04:15 PM.Comment -
Sando, what do you think about Sousa (+1.5) $2.45 ?
Thanks for your tips!Comment -
NBA Card complete.
Like the Pistons to smash the Bobcats, but with the two Total's already in play, do not want to load up any more on the one game. Also like the Lakers -2.5, but that line is more suspicous than a nun doing squats in a cucumber field, as is the money continuing to flow in on the Nuggets?
*For live bettors - consider jumping on the Pistons in play if you can pick them up for -6 to -7.Last edited by sando; 01-06-13, 04:26 PM.Comment -
Man these Bobcats are so unpredictable. One half they play lights out and then give it all back in 2nd half. Pistons in the palace though are tough. I'm probably rolling Cats +4 1/2 1H and over 97 1/2 1H. Locked in your Tennis plays on Bengu and Oprandi so here's hoping we cash tonight. GLComment -
sando,
the above is actually hilarious...i will use that along with your handicapping...tyComment -
Happy Birthday Shotgun.
Prefer the + games, he could lose in straights and still cover (7-6 6-3, 6-4 6-4, etc).
You from motor city mate?
Nice, had a unit on the Texans yesterday. Seen your posts in other NBA threads, clearly you know your stuff, so your input is appreciated.
Last edited by sando; 01-06-13, 05:05 PM.Comment -
Sando how well do you know Sousa? Because I faded Sousa in 2011 when I bet the basically the full season of tennis and last year a little bit too. I think that Mayer has the ability to finish some quick points specially if he starts the game serving well and if that happens Sousa can easily become a train wreck. One of the worst players to back as a dog in my mind, due to his crazyness and impredictability.
edit: just so its clear, Im just checking out of curiosity. I am pretty sure you know what you're doing and actually you made not bet Mayer there as I was thinking of doing.Last edited by JM92; 01-06-13, 05:10 PM.Comment -
[QUOTE=black lab;17388848]sando,
the above is actually hilariou..i will use that along with your handicapping...ty[/QUO
You using someone's name son?Comment -
Brainfreeze, you're probably looking at set handicap. Sando is playing the games handicap. Which bookie are you using ? Some bookies only have game handicap, others only set handicap... and I think only a few have both. I would advise bet365 and Pinnacle for tennis they always seemed to me clear winners.Comment -
I'm using Heritage. I'm kind of skeptical on using other books from past experience when it comes time to withdraw, especially after the whole Betislands fiasco. Here's a screenshot of its layout
However Heritage is an awesome book and have taken player suggestions and implemented them before. So if I dont have the right setup I can try and suggest it to them.Comment -
Hmm maybe that happens only with the first rounds of the tournaments. It could also be because we're still far away from the start of the games, but that's not the case here for sure. If you are limited to set betting and MLs in tennis you are losing a lot of value, in my mind at least. So I dont know what Sando is going to keep sending our way but I would definetly advise you to try and get another acount on a good tennis bookie.Comment -
Yeah Sousa like most young European players (Spanish excluded) is rather unpredictable, although he has shown glimpses of his potential and he has been playing well in Australia and he is feisty which I love in a tennis player.
Joao Sousa has won 5 of last 6 in Australia
1. Calculate Mayer no more than a 55% favorite (Current form being the most prevalent factor).
2. Mayer in terrible form (My first bet of this thread was a successful Mayer fade) and Sousa actually in pretty good form for a dirt baller playing on hard courts.
3. Sousa already 3-0 on these Sydney courts. Had time to adjust to court conditions and acclimatise (unlike Mayer).
4. 2 of my trusted tennis associates also like Sousa, one of them likes him to win (although it is more of a fade Mayer play than back Joao)
5. Mayer was crap in 2012, and I don't like his attitude or body language.Last edited by sando; 01-06-13, 05:55 PM.Comment -
But Sousa had two long matches as well. He seemed to be pretty good against Ruffin but not in the next two matches, even though I don't know the actuall quality of the guys he faced (they suck ranking wise). He's a fighter yes, but that lack of focus he shows sometimes doesn't improve with fatigue for sure. But yes, Mayer has been strugling, that's for sure.
btw, I am actually pretty sure I saw Sousa play in the National championships once, its funny because he wasn't even supposed to be ever become that good, and even just two years ago he was always living in the shadow of Gastao Elias. But he can definetly play!Comment
