Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[knowlove85]

UFC 155

MGM Grand (Las Vegas)

MMA YTD 5-0 (+22.21 Units)

Best looking fight card I have seen in ages from a betting point of view. From an entertainment point of view the card completely sucks. So many nice fights ruined by injury withdrawals (Griffin, Sonnen, Maynard, etc). Have put a fair bit of work in to this card and come up with some solid picks. Some of the odds the books have set are just rediculous. MMA continues to have the biggest discrepancies as a sport which is of course great for the punter (providing you know what you are looking for).

Chris Cariaso v John Moraga
Cariaso (+145, $2.45 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*Odds are hilarious on this one. Should probably be close to a pk em. Great value on Cariaso. Who the hell is John Moraga anyway?

Melvin Guillard v Jamie Varner
Guillard (-121, $1.82 IAS/Sportsbet) 1x
*Had this wager already on the recent UFC on Fox card and Varner pulled out at the last minute as he was apparently throwing up in the dressing room... Nerves? Food poisioning? According to Guillard he was scared and that's why he pulled out...? Anyway both of these guys are unpredictable and prone to putting in shockers which is what keeps me from going any larger on this fight although I do like Guillard in this position.

Brad Pickett v Eddie Wineland
Pickett (Evens, $2.00 Bet 365) 2x
*Pickett's a beast. Crowd loves him, Dana loves him, all three fights since joining the UFC have been fight of the night/KO of the night peformances. Guy's probably the best English fighter in MMA. He has great timing, love watching him duck, weave, dodge (or sometimes just crash right through) and then boom with the big counter strikes or "Rampage" slam. Anyway guy should be a slight favorite here I would say, odds are generous.

Chris Leben v Derek Brunson
Leben (-147, $1.68 Pinnacle) 2x
*The "cat smasher" has heavy hands and an iron chin reminiscent of "cabbage" Correira. The only thing that bothers me is the potential ring rust from his one year forced hiatus for drug abuse, otherwise I think the books have been rather generous with the odds coming up against a late replacement in Brunson (original opponent was Vemola). After reading up as much as I can find about Leben and his attitude towards life and fighting in general I am relatively happy (considering his constant trangressions in the past).

Chris Leben quote...
"It's been a long struggle, not just pain medicine, but drug and alcohol abuse, and I've had it through my entire career. Some fights I was doing better than other fights. Things came to a head. My last fight was more of a cry for help.

"I knew I was going to get caught. I knew I wasn't supposed to be doing what I did. Thank God for (UFC matchmaker) Joe Silva and (UFC President) Dana White. They helped me. I broke the rules. They suspended me for one year. It's not like I was trying to cheat. I had a problem and an issue. They sent me to rehab. I needed a month of inpatient rehab, and went directly to outpatient treatment. I've continued to focus on my treatment. That's a continual battle in that fight. I take it one day at a time. I haven't taken a pain pill since. I've continued to be drug and alcohol free."

Brunson does train under Mark Jackson which is always a good sign, however the guy is making his UFC debut after just being knocked out by a BJJ specialist in his last fight in Strikeforce before taking the step up to the UFC at short notice to fight a guy with iron in his fists. Hmmm...? If Leben was not coming off the 1 year break then the odds for this fight would be around -333.

Jim Miller v Joe Lauzon
Over 2.5 rounds (+135, $2.35 Pinnacle) 1x

Alan Belcher v Yushin Okami
Belcher (+101, $2.01 Pinnacle) 2x

Junior dos Santos v Cain Velasquez
JDS (-182, $1.55 Pinnacle) 2x
Under 1.5 rounds (+114, $2.14 Pinnacle) 1x
*Under 1.5 rounds is partial insurance against JDS getting caught by Cain early and also adds some extra value to JDS' odds as his most likely method of victory is of course via stoppage.

**Will add some more analysis for the fights later.

Shotgun and Southmadejd (if your still around)? and any others in the MMA scene would love to hear your thoughts on the card?

Sando, cannot agree with you some of these picks....

Not sure where you see the value for a 2 unit pick on Belcher. He's on somewhat of a roll, but who has he beat? All of Belcher's wins are middle of the pack guys... Palhares is his best win, but I think Palhares might have been overrated to begin with. There is far too much value in Okami at a near pick em price and anything under a -140 is probably a great value play. Okami might be declining a tad, but he is a huge, strong middleweight who can take the fight to the ground at will if he gets in any trouble on the feet.

Against you on Pickett as well. Its a close fight, I just think that Wineland's power and wrestling make the difference. They both KO'd their last opponent and looked good doing it. Only thing is Wineland KO'd Jorgenson who had never been knocked out before, while Jorgenson owns a win over Pickett, albeit two years ago.

On board with the JDS and Leben picks....Guilliard and Varner is a no bet for me, both are far too flaky.

BOL, pal.

[ShotgunRua]

Shotgun and Southmadejd (if your still around)? and any others in the MMA scene would love to hear your thoughts on the card?

Hey Sando, my thoughts on each bet below mate;


Cariaso (+145, $2.45 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Agree, coin toss for me, worth a unit or 2

Melvin Guillard v Jamie Varner
Guillard (-121, $1.82 IAS/Sportsbet) 1x

This has "no play" written all over it for me. Literally anything could happen here in my opinion. Guillard nearly put away Cerrone in his last fight (Cowboy is certainly elite). He comes out and explodes, sometimes he gets the job done, other times he looks terrible. Varner is well rounded and dangerous. I can imagine any number of equally likely scenarios here- no way I'm putting money on it.

Brad Pickett v Eddie Wineland
Pickett (Evens, $2.00 Bet 365) 2x

Incredibly close fight, might as well play Pickett at evens. I also love Pickett's style, he had some doubters after the Barao fight, but Barao is now champ is is clearly a beast. Wineland is no joke though and may be able to nullify Pickett's striking.

Chris Leben v Derek Brunson
Leben (-147, $1.68 Pinnacle) 2x

Completely agree, Leben is the play here, also going 2 units.

Jim Miller v Joe Lauzon
Over 2.5 rounds (+135, $2.35 Pinnacle) 1x

If I had to pick a winner I'd lean towards Miller, but the over is a solid play

Alan Belcher v Yushin Okami
Belcher (+101, $2.01 Pinnacle) 2x

Also on Belcher. I think Yushin in on a major decline, Belcher ITD.

Junior dos Santos v Cain Velasquez
JDS (-182, $1.55 Pinnacle) 2x
Under 1.5 rounds (+114, $2.14 Pinnacle) 1x

Under is NOT insurance here Sando. Cain's striking is actually pretty terrible but his wrestling is phenomenal. Either JDS KO's Cain some time within the first 2.5 rounds (by far the most likely scenario), or Cain secures takedowns and wears JDS out. The chance of Cain doing damage on the feet to JDS is so incredibly unlikely, and with JDS' BJJ blackbelt it will take some time for Cain to pass and do some real damage. I'm personally looking at JDS within 3 rounds 90% of the time and Cain by decision or late TKO the other 10%. Either way JDShas ridiculous value here.

Good calls though, if anyone is blindly tailing Sando and doesn't know MMA, following all these bets will almost certainly be profitable.

I honestly feel though with this many bets, some of which slightly risky, your undefeated streak ends soon!!

[thorny]

UFC 155

MGM Grand (Las Vegas)

MMA YTD 5-0 (+22.21 Units)

Best looking fight card I have seen in ages from a betting point of view. From an entertainment point of view the card completely sucks. So many nice fights ruined by injury withdrawals (Griffin, Sonnen, Maynard, etc). Have put a fair bit of work in to this card and come up with some solid picks. Some of the odds the books have set are just rediculous. MMA continues to have the biggest discrepancies as a sport which is of course great for the punter (providing you know what you are looking for).

Chris Cariaso v John Moraga
Cariaso (+145, $2.45 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*Odds are hilarious on this one. Should probably be close to a pk em. Great value on Cariaso. Who the hell is John Moraga anyway?

Melvin Guillard v Jamie Varner
Guillard (-121, $1.82 IAS/Sportsbet) 1x
*Had this wager already on the recent UFC on Fox card and Varner pulled out at the last minute as he was apparently throwing up in the dressing room... Nerves? Food poisioning? According to Guillard he was scared and that's why he pulled out...? Anyway both of these guys are unpredictable and prone to putting in shockers which is what keeps me from going any larger on this fight although I do like Guillard in this position.

Brad Pickett v Eddie Wineland
Pickett (Evens, $2.00 Bet 365) 2x
*Pickett's a beast. Crowd loves him, Dana loves him, all three fights since joining the UFC have been fight of the night/KO of the night peformances. Guy's probably the best English fighter in MMA. He has great timing, love watching him duck, weave, dodge (or sometimes just crash right through) and then boom with the big counter strikes or "Rampage" slam. Anyway guy should be a slight favorite here I would say, odds are generous.

Chris Leben v Derek Brunson
Leben (-147, $1.68 Pinnacle) 2x
*The "cat smasher" has heavy hands and an iron chin reminiscent of "cabbage" Correira. The only thing that bothers me is the potential ring rust from his one year forced hiatus for drug abuse, otherwise I think the books have been rather generous with the odds coming up against a late replacement in Brunson (original opponent was Vemola). After reading up as much as I can find about Leben and his attitude towards life and fighting in general I am relatively happy (considering his constant trangressions in the past).

Chris Leben quote...
"It's been a long struggle, not just pain medicine, but drug and alcohol abuse, and I've had it through my entire career. Some fights I was doing better than other fights. Things came to a head. My last fight was more of a cry for help.

"I knew I was going to get caught. I knew I wasn't supposed to be doing what I did. Thank God for (UFC matchmaker) Joe Silva and (UFC President) Dana White. They helped me. I broke the rules. They suspended me for one year. It's not like I was trying to cheat. I had a problem and an issue. They sent me to rehab. I needed a month of inpatient rehab, and went directly to outpatient treatment. I've continued to focus on my treatment. That's a continual battle in that fight. I take it one day at a time. I haven't taken a pain pill since. I've continued to be drug and alcohol free."

Brunson does train under Mark Jackson which is always a good sign, however the guy is making his UFC debut after just being knocked out by a BJJ specialist in his last fight in Strikeforce before taking the step up to the UFC at short notice to fight a guy with iron in his fists. Hmmm...? If Leben was not coming off the 1 year break then the odds for this fight would be around -333.

Jim Miller v Joe Lauzon
Over 2.5 rounds (+135, $2.35 Pinnacle) 1x

Alan Belcher v Yushin Okami
Belcher (+101, $2.01 Pinnacle) 2x

Junior dos Santos v Cain Velasquez
JDS (-182, $1.55 Pinnacle) 2x
Under 1.5 rounds (+114, $2.14 Pinnacle) 1x
*Under 1.5 rounds is partial insurance against JDS getting caught by Cain early and also adds some extra value to JDS' odds as his most likely method of victory is of course via stoppage.

**Will add some more analysis for the fights later.

Shotgun and Southmadejd (if your still around)? and any others in the MMA scene would love to hear your thoughts on the card?

Sando,

Moraga is from MMA, and has done well. His first bout in UFC he defeated Ulysses Gomez in first round...I wouldn't underestimate him against Cariaso...

Guillard V Varner will be tight i think, but i like Guillard for the decision...

Pickett might be a tough fighter, but Wineland has greater reach and technique...too close for me

Leben, all over him. win by KO.

Belcher maybe has the upper hand as Okami is fading, but cant get past the fact that Okami has beaten Belcher before and knows how to...

Miller v Lauzon. I like the over, i think it will be won by Miller via decision.

JDS or Cain to win in 2nd round for me...but this game could go anywhere...

[thorny]

guys what do you think about

Perez x Duffee x Leben Parlay @ 2.60 (Sportingbet) - 1.5 units?

[sharlataans]

Good picks, but I have a feeling we are not going to see the best Leben. I see Brunson playing it safe and taking the decision.

[tblues2005]

Sandi do you have any picks for the NBA today?

[sando]

NBA Friday

Toronto @ NO
Hornets -3 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 2x
*Hornets looked really good against the Magic, now they are back at home against a Raptors team that was playing some great basketball but came back to earth with a thud against the Spurs. Hornets should be fired up for the long awaited return of Gordon tomorrow, which will give them a really solid "Big 3" in Gordon, Davis and Anderson. I think NO will actually be very tough to beat at home once Gordon gets some game time under his belt.
Denver @ Dallas
Nuggets -2.5 (-108, $1.92 Sportsbet/IAS) 1x
*Dallas is an old team playing the back2back tonight and surely must be flat emotionally after last night's game in OKC. They dominated 90% of the game, they hit an amazing shot to force OT, and yet still they lost. Nuggets are seasoned vet's on the road, they have played more road games than anyone in the NBA right now.

NY @ Sacramento
Kings +3 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 2x
Kings m/l (+130, $2.30 Bet 365) 1x
**Knicks without 'Melo and Felton again and in the last game in Phoenix it took a poor performance from the Suns and a red hot JR Smith to just drag the Knicks across the line. Kings can be very tough at home, Thomas provding a great spark off the bench and if Cousins plays (and I believe he will) I think he will have a big game. He has been very cranky in media interviews the last few days, I think the kid is desperate to just get back on the court and do what he does best, plus he now has a lot of other clubs/scouts paying attention to him as trade rumours start to circulate and I'm sure he is aware of this and will be putting in work. While not as athletic as Chandler, he is significantly bigger/stronger and should be able to back him down and get good looks close to the basket especially under single coverage.

Atlanta @ Cleveland
Hawks -5 (-113, $1.88 Pinnacle) 2x
*Recommend buying the hook or PYOL in this game. Very simple angle. Varejao still out for the Cav's and playing the Hawks is the exact sort of game his presence will be sorely missed in, with J-Smooth red hot in his last game and Horford stringing 2 double/double's together in a row I can see them getting what they want around the paint without Varejao's energy and defensive presence around to bother them. Thompson and Zeller a poor match up against these two guys.

Houston @ SA
Spurs -8 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 1x
*Spurs play solid and disciplined perimeter defence, they switch and cover well. Unlikely the jump shooting Rockets will get as many easy looks today as they have in recent games, also expect to see Leonard spending time on the ultra dangerous Harden. The guy is a very good on ball defender, hyper aggressive and has the speed to trouble Harden who makes a habit of just blowing by defenders as he pleases. Combined with Ginobli the two could potentially frustrate Harden right out of the game. Take Harden out of the game and the Rockets will struggle to keep this under double digits.

NBA Total's

Orlando @ Washington
Over 182 (-113, $1.88 Luxbet/Pinnacle) 1.5x

Philly @ GS
Under 200.5 (-108, $1.92 Pinnacle) 1x

Edit - Wow. The under is currently getting crunched on Pinny. In just 5 minutes already down from -108 to -116. It takes a lot of action to move Pinny lines due to high volume.

[sando]

Kings +3 for 2x

Line is moving against us quickly. Will add the puck properly with a write up in 15 minutes

[GrubyBob]

Orlando @ Washington
Over 182 (-113, $1.88 Luxbet/Pinnacle) 1.5x

Hi Sando, still worthy at 183.5?

[knowlove85]

Sando,

Moraga is from MMA, and has done well. His first bout in UFC he defeated Ulysses Gomez in first round...I wouldn't underestimate him against Cariaso...

Guillard V Varner will be tight i think, but i like Guillard for the decision...

Pickett might be a tough fighter, but Wineland has greater reach and technique...too close for me

Leben, all over him. win by KO.

Belcher maybe has the upper hand as Okami is fading, but cant get past the fact that Okami has beaten Belcher before and knows how to...

Miller v Lauzon. I like the over, i think it will be won by Miller via decision.

JDS or Cain to win in 2nd round for me...but this game could go anywhere...

I think it's JDS' fight u2.5 rounds and Cain's fight o2.5 rounds. Cain COULD clip him and knock him out, but Cain isn't necessarily a power puncher even though he knocked out Noguiera with that left hook. He's a punches in bunches kind of guy, similar to how nick diaz TKOs guys. JDS has a tendency to fade as evidenced in his fights with Roy Nelson and Carwin (two of the top 3 hardest hitters in the HW division). He also took their best shots and wasn't rocked, so I sincerely doubt Cain can. Cain's best chance is to survive until round 3 where JDS will fade and Cain can take him down and G&P maybe on his way to a TKO. Can Cain survive 2-3 round without getting bombed is the question....i doubt it. The public should start chewing up Velasquez at +160, if JDS drops to -150 through -170, he's the play.

[dioforce]

Cain's striking is better than JDS. JDS is merely a stronger puncher. Cain has better technique. Cain is simply the most well-rounded heavyweight in the world. Smart money is on Velasquez. JSD BJJ is mediocre for a black belt. Don't be fooled.

[sando]

Hi Sando, still worthy at 183.5?

Can you buy the hook to take it to 183? If not maybe just play it for the 1 unit to be safe. Have his total set at 186-188.

[sando]

Cain's striking is better than JDS. JDS is merely a stronger puncher. Cain has better technique. Cain is simply the most well-rounded heavyweight in the world. Smart money is on Velasquez. JSD BJJ is mediocre for a black belt. Don't be fooled.

Cain is a better MMA striker as he incorporates a great kicking arsenal however JDS hands are far superior. Vitali Klitschko himself rates JDS' boxing highly, what does that tell you about his hands? Also when have you had a chance to see JDS' BJJ in action?

[knowlove85]

Cain's (kick)boxing might be better, I cant remember ever seeing JDS throw a kick, but Dos Santos' boxing is FAR superior to Cain's. It's been stated, and is evident in his technique and fluidity just from watching that he is one of, if not thee best boxer in MMA period. Many high-level pundits have said as much, and I tend to agree. The guy has the hand-speed of a welterweight. Also, not sure where you are getting the assumption that his BJJ is mediocre. I don't think we've ever seen him utilize his BJJ in the UFC. He's been in there with the likes of Werdum, Gonzaga, Nelson, and Frank Mir - all accomplished, high-level black belts who didn't threaten him once. Cain is zero threat where BJJ is concerned.

Didn't even see your post Sando, until I was done writing mine...I think we're seeing eye-to eye.

[sando]

...

[Viverre]

No one likes Miami -6?

[TBsp75]

wade suspended.

[dmitean]

Agree on almost all plays (but Denver - that Dallas should win and this is their last chance to fight for playoff).

Good luck!

[sando]

NBA card complete.

Things starting to get busy with a big UFC card around the corner and tennis starting up again, however my focus remains on the NBA for now. Going to fight through this current rough patch.

[ShotgunRua]

Cain's striking is better than JDS. JDS is merely a stronger puncher. Cain has better technique. Cain is simply the most well-rounded heavyweight in the world. Smart money is on Velasquez. JSD BJJ is mediocre for a black belt. Don't be fooled.

This is a really good examination of the glaring holes in Cain's striking game. It is not even in the same ballpark as JDS'.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/12/21/3791428/ufc-155-cain-velasquez-junior-dos-santos-jack-slack-judo-chop

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Most points scored
Bryant v Lillard
Bryant $1.04
Lillard $9.00

Is Lillard any chance?

[sando]

Most points scored
Bryant v Lillard
Bryant $1.04
Lillard $9.00

Is Lillard any chance?

Will he out score Kobe at least once in every 8 games - Absolutely. Will he do it today? Maybe if Matthews plays (the perfect guy to guard Kobe) but doesn't seem like like Matthews will play so the question is will Lillard put up 30+ (which is what he will probably need) and that is rather unlikely. However if you like "value" then those odds look quite generous.

[sando]

What a disgusting bad beat in the Spurs game. Obviously garlic breath doesn't know the rules of etiquette concerning then end of blow out games. I stopped paying attention when they were up 17 with 3 minutes left, an eternity in the NBA - Where amazing happens.

[knowlove85]

I think we all need to realize a prevailing axiom, don't bet against Houston or Toronto, at least not in the short term. Those two teams consistently undervalued by the books.

[jontebond]

What a disgusting bad beat in the Spurs game. Obviously garlic breath doesn't know the rules of etiquette concerning then end of blow out games. I stopped paying attention when they were up 17 with 3 minutes left, an eternity in the NBA - Where amazing happens.

Yeah this was a really bad finish to the game... I had spurs -7.5 (live bet)....
Best of luck tomorrow.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Curse of the Craptors strikes again

Pretty solid effort Sando, unlucky on the spurs too

[tblues2005]

Sando went 4-2 tonight and had positive 2.5 at least. Not bad. I know the ones fading him tonight is down more than that. We will not see that clown for the rest of the night.

[easysaid]

Good shit sando onto MMA tommorow, reckon you'll have room for a NBA card?

[sando]

6-2 today, nice bounce back day. Got horribly unlucky on the Spurs and got done again by my bogey team (Raptors) although we obviously got lucky with the Kings game, yet after being up 27 points it is sad that it took a last second 3 to win it...

Good shit sando onto MMA tommorow, reckon you'll have room for a NBA card?

Absolutely mate, although there will be no live betting/trading for me tomorrow as won't be watching any games, will be heading down to the local to watch the fights.

[amarius87]

thanks sando loved your picks!

[tblues2005]

Sorry Sando I didn't catch your other 2 and overall was a good night. You sure shut the faders down big time.

[brumbies]

liking brad pickett too

how can one not wager on someone who is dana white's top 5 fighters to watch?

[tblues2005]

I sure see your going to have a very busy day on Saturday so I wish you luck and keep up the good work. You are worth gold when you are on.

[sando]

Long season. Stay focused. Keep grinding.

6-2 Today in the NBA +5.08 Units

NBA YTD 136-104-10 (+37.08 Units) 56.7%

(NBA ATS/ML 100-78-7 YTD) 56.2%

(NBA Totals 36-26-3 YTD) 58.1%

Unofficial NBA prop bets YTD 3-3

Unofficial NBA Parlays 0-1

________________________________________

Tennis YTD 32-25-4 (+18.16 Units) - 2 Pending

________________________________________ ________


All time SBR Picks

Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
MMA 5-0 (+22.21 Units)
MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units) *See spreadsheet

**Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.

[MrXYZ]

I rolled with your Magic/WIz total, thanks Sando for the easy winner, Bet receipt number: O/1014619/0000252/D 1 Basketball - US NBA Matches Orlando Magic At Washington Wizards 29/12/2012 11:10 Total Points Scored Over @ 1.92 (182.0) Settled against market handicap Stake and Return Details Bet Placed on 29/12/2012 Bet Type Over/Under Number of lines 1 Stake per line $110.00 Channel SB Mobile Total stake $110.00 Free bets redeemed $0.00 Total amount paid $211.20 Returns $211.20