Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[Maggi]

Great work Sando. Tailing your next plays

[sando]

NBA Saturday

Boston @ GS
Warriors -3.5 (-109, $1.91 Sportingbet/Luxbet) 3x
*Looks like I was wrong about the line. It's currently sitting at -3, I was pretty sure it would move to -4. Hmmm?

OKC @ Houston
Thunder -4 (-108, $1.92 IAS/Sportsbet) 2x

Indiana @ Atlanta
Pacers +4 (-116, $1.86 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*Recommend buying the hook or PYOL on this one as I believe this will be a very tight game and I'm happy to pay the juice for the extra insurance.

NO @ Charlotte
Hornets -3 (-108, $1.92 IAS/Sportsbet) 1x

NBA Totals
I have many leans today but nothing that I feel strong enough about to play. Like the over in the heat/bucks and griz/nuggets and okc/houston games and the under in philly/portland and hawks/pacers, but again nothing solid enough to play today.


NBA Parlay
Memphis m/l
Minnesota m/l
Brooklyn m/l
+122, $2.22 Sportingbet/Centrebet 2x (+121 Pinnacle)

NBA Prop Bet
Greivis Vasquez +2.5 points/assists (v. Kemba Walker)
(Evens, $2.00 Sportingbet/Centrebet) 1x

[aussieH]

Not listed yet at tab. Or sportsbet. Feels like a good play. The celtics are in decline.

[Raskal]

Not listed on 365 yet.

What you think of Miami -4.5
Houston +4.5
Magic -4.0

[Pacu]

-3@ 1.87 or -3.5@ 1.97 at marathonbet. They've got great lines and odds. I use both b365 and marathon.

[aussieH]

It is listed at centre bet.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Enjoy the fight card tomorrow Sando.

Jumped on most except the O/U betting as couldn't get decent prices.

GL to all.

[Bbr]

Nuggets +6.5my only play this weekend sando. Gl with Gs!

[Yinz Hooligan]

NBA Saturday

Boston @ GS
Warriors -3.5 (-109, $1.91 Sportingbet/Luxbet) 3x
*If you like it act fast. Line will move against us. Will do a write up later.

i took Warriors -3 before I saw your post, I also saw that the line opened at 3.5, what do you think about the line moving the opposite way than you expected? I'm trying to learn as much about reverse line movement as possible to help with picking plays.

Do you think when the line makers put the spreads out they open with bad lines sometimes just to mess with the betters heads? Or do you think the line makers always open with what they think is the perfect spread and let the public move it from there?

Im new to sports investing and just looking for as much info as I can get from veteran investors.

good luck Sando

[shinu]

Waiting for these MMA picks :P
$$$$$

[tblues2005]

Thanks Sando for the NBA pick I hope it hits today. You had an excellent day yesterday and keep up the good work. I hope now you go on a roll and finish out the year on a positive note. Don't let these morons tell you any different because all of us knows that we do go through rough spells from time to time and they just don't get it. I would love to see you up 100 units for the year. That would be great.

[ShotgunRua]

Waiting for these MMA picks :P
$$$$$

Last page

[Emerson]

guys what do you think about

Perez x Duffee x Leben Parlay @ 2.60 (Sportingbet) - 1.5 units?

I have that parlay but with only Duffee and Leben @1.98.
Your parlay looks good too, worth 1.5 units.
Taking JDS KO $1.80 for 2 units.

[shinu]

Following MMA picks!
BOL!

[sando]

Plays Added.

Total to follow soon and another ATS pick, then some analysis.

Not listed on 365 yet.

What you think of Miami -4.5
Houston +4.5
Magic -4.0

I like Miami (if you waited you can now get -4), don't like Houston and not sure about Orlando (it's a tough one and I keep under-estimating Toronto). GL.

[aussieH]

UFC 155

MGM Grand (Las Vegas)

MMA YTD 5-0 (+22.21 Units)

Best looking fight card I have seen in ages from a betting point of view. From an entertainment point of view the card completely sucks. So many nice fights ruined by injury withdrawals (Griffin, Sonnen, Maynard, etc). Have put a fair bit of work in to this card and come up with some solid picks. Some of the odds the books have set are just rediculous. MMA continues to have the biggest discrepancies as a sport which is of course great for the punter (providing you know what you are looking for).

Chris Cariaso v John Moraga
Cariaso (+145, $2.45 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*Odds are hilarious on this one. Should probably be close to a pk em. Great value on Cariaso. Who the hell is John Moraga anyway?

Melvin Guillard v Jamie Varner
Guillard (-121, $1.82 IAS/Sportsbet) 1x
*Had this wager already on the recent UFC on Fox card and Varner pulled out at the last minute as he was apparently throwing up in the dressing room... Nerves? Food poisioning? According to Guillard he was scared and that's why he pulled out...? Anyway both of these guys are unpredictable and prone to putting in shockers which is what keeps me from going any larger on this fight although I do like Guillard in this position.

Brad Pickett v Eddie Wineland
Pickett (Evens, $2.00 Bet 365) 2x
*Pickett's a beast. Crowd loves him, Dana loves him, all three fights since joining the UFC have been fight of the night/KO of the night peformances. Guy's probably the best English fighter in MMA. He has great timing, love watching him duck, weave, dodge (or sometimes just crash right through) and then boom with the big counter strikes or "Rampage" slam. Anyway guy should be a slight favorite here I would say, odds are generous.

Chris Leben v Derek Brunson
Leben (-147, $1.68 Pinnacle) 2x
*The "cat smasher" has heavy hands and an iron chin reminiscent of "cabbage" Correira. The only thing that bothers me is the potential ring rust from his one year forced hiatus for drug abuse, otherwise I think the books have been rather generous with the odds coming up against a late replacement in Brunson (original opponent was Vemola). After reading up as much as I can find about Leben and his attitude towards life and fighting in general I am relatively happy (considering his constant trangressions in the past).

Chris Leben quote...
"It's been a long struggle, not just pain medicine, but drug and alcohol abuse, and I've had it through my entire career. Some fights I was doing better than other fights. Things came to a head. My last fight was more of a cry for help.

"I knew I was going to get caught. I knew I wasn't supposed to be doing what I did. Thank God for (UFC matchmaker) Joe Silva and (UFC President) Dana White. They helped me. I broke the rules. They suspended me for one year. It's not like I was trying to cheat. I had a problem and an issue. They sent me to rehab. I needed a month of inpatient rehab, and went directly to outpatient treatment. I've continued to focus on my treatment. That's a continual battle in that fight. I take it one day at a time. I haven't taken a pain pill since. I've continued to be drug and alcohol free."

Brunson does train under Greg Jackson which is always a good sign, however the guy is making his UFC debut after just being knocked out by a BJJ specialist in his last fight in Strikeforce before taking the step up to the UFC at short notice to fight a guy with iron in his fists. Hmmm...? If Leben was not coming off the 1 year break then the odds for this fight would be around -333.

Jim Miller v Joe Lauzon
Over 2.5 rounds (+135, $2.35 Pinnacle) 1x

Alan Belcher v Yushin Okami
Belcher (+101, $2.01 Pinnacle) 2x

Junior dos Santos v Cain Velasquez
JDS (-182, $1.55 Pinnacle) 2x
Under 1.5 rounds (+114, $2.14 Pinnacle) 1x
*Under 1.5 rounds is partial insurance against JDS getting caught by Cain early and also adds some extra value to JDS' odds as his most likely method of victory is of course via stoppage.

**Will add some more analysis for the fights later.

Shotgun and Southmadejd (if your still around)? and any others in the MMA scene would love to hear your thoughts on the card?

Bump


Best of luck

[ShotgunRua]

Good luck on all your bets tonight Sando! Tailing on NBA as always, and I have very similar MMA picks.

[sando]

I think that's just about it for me today with the NBA. Still contemplating 1 more ATS pick but at this stage unlikely to play it, so NBA card is probably complete. Big day today with NBA and then MMA. Hopefully make some money.

Good luck on all your bets tonight Sando! Tailing on NBA as always, and I have very similar MMA picks.

Thanks mate, GL with your MMA bets, I feel a lot more confident knowing we are on similar sides. Can't wait for the Pickett and Leben fights, think they'll be crackers...

[dmitean]

Took the exact same parlay! Hope it's a good sign!

Good luck today!!!

[TBsp75]

OKC deserves more unit IMO. HOU are exhausted after SA game yesterday. every starting player for HOU had their hands on knee in 4th quarter. this is their 5th game in a week and they been playing with super fast pace. plus OKC is prob the only team that can shut harden down and they're well rested.

[MakinItHappen]

Tailing on the big two. Heat and OKC. Thanks Sando and good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

great luck to all sando followers tonight!

[ShotgunRua]

Thanks mate, GL with your MMA bets, I feel a lot more confident knowing we are on similar sides. Can't wait for the Pickett and Leben fights, think they'll be crackers...

Yeah agreed, if you're curious, this is what I posted in my thread over in MMA betting. Uncanny actually as I've had some of of these plays locked in a while, the Lauzon/Miller over was completely influenced by your bets, I'd never considered it as I was so busy concentrating on the outcome.

Junior Dos Santos- (-136 Paddy Power) 3 to win 2.18
Junior Do Santos in round 1- (+175 Bet365) 0.5 to win 1.07
Alan Belcher- (+110 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 2.83
Jim Miller- (-210 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 0.7
Miller/Lauzon over 2.5- (+100 Bet365) 2 to win 2
Chris Leben- (-167 Pinnacle) 3 to win 1.8
Parlay- JDS by KO+Chris Leben+Miller/Lauzon goes distance (Paddy, treble) 0.5 to win 3.28

JDS is a terrible, terrible matchup for Cain, Okami is on a serious decline, and Leben will definitely smash Brunson.

[sando]

Yeah agreed, if you're curious, this is what I posted in my thread over in MMA betting. Uncanny actually as I've had some of of these plays locked in a while, the Lauzon/Miller over was completely influenced by your bets, I'd never considered it as I was so busy concentrating on the outcome.

Junior Dos Santos- (-136 Paddy Power) 3 to win 2.18
Junior Do Santos in round 1- (+175 Bet365) 0.5 to win 1.07
Alan Belcher- (+110 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 2.83
Jim Miller- (-210 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 0.7
Miller/Lauzon over 2.5- (+100 Bet365) 2 to win 2
Chris Leben- (-167 Pinnacle) 3 to win 1.8
Parlay- JDS by KO+Chris Leben+Miller/Lauzon goes distance (Paddy, treble) 0.5 to win 3.28

JDS is a terrible, terrible matchup for Cain, Okami is on a serious decline, and Leben will definitely smash Brunson.

Yeah I think Miller takes this too, I can just see him working for the decision, grinding it out. Lauzon is dangerous of course, I think he will pick his spots carefully (Miller).

Wow I didn't even know you had a thread, will definitely check it out. I've got to start visiting the MMA forum more, I know there are some really sharp guys over there (Vaughny, punisher).

Edit - Just following some MMA line movement's and very happy to see the Over 2.5 in the Miller/Lauzon has been crunched on Pinny from +135 into -108. Pinny gets a lot of sharp MMA action so hopefully that is a good sign. Also both Leben and Cariaso getting significant late action which is a good sign, although I am a bit nervous about all the money coming in on wineland (against Pickett). Wineland is seriously getting pounded, hmmm...

[prior22usaf]

Sando, just saw your picks for the day... You still as confident on the GS play as the line has moved to -3 at my book as well... Was going to lock it in, but wanted to make sure you were still as confident about it... And thanks as always for sharing the picks... Much appreciated! Dennis

[ShotgunRua]

Yeah I think Miller takes this too, I can just see him working for the decision, grinding it out. Lauzon is dangerous of course, I think he will pick his spots carefully (Miller).

Wow I didn't even know you had a thread, will definitely check it out. I've got to start visiting the MMA forum more, I know there are some really sharp guys over there (Vaughny, punisher).

Edit - Just following some MMA line movement's and very happy to see the Over 2.5 in the Miller/Lauzon has been crunched on Pinny from +135 into -108. Pinny gets a lot of sharp MMA action so hopefully that is a good sign. Also both Leben and Cariaso getting significant late action which is a good sign, although I am a bit nervous about all the money coming in on wineland (against Pickett).

There are even a couple of trolls that would give Daimo a run for his money. Yeah, started a thread and shamelessly ripped off your format.

[sando]

Sando, just saw your picks for the day... You still as confident on the GS play as the line has moved to -3 at my book as well... Was going to lock it in, but wanted to make sure you were still as confident about it... And thanks as always for sharing the picks... Much appreciated! Dennis

Yes I still like it, and if you can get the -3 then all the better for you.

The Celtics have dropped eight of 10 on the road and their last four losses away from home have come at an average of 16.7 points per game

Celtic's 3-7 ATS last 10 games and 1-6 ATS last 7 road games.

Warriors have a great ATS record (16-7 last 23) when playing on no rest (back2back).

Put simply, the Warriors are hot and the C's most definitely are not. Yes the line is a bit suspicous considering Philly was -6.5 yesterday (from memory), as is the line movement (or lack thereof) however almost all NBA cappers are guilty of over analysing situations at some point or another and I have chosen to just keep this one simple.

[sando]

For those that want to watch the UFC 155 card and do not want to pay for it...

http://www.thefirstrow.eu/sport/boxing-wwe-ufc.html

[thorny]

For those that want to watch the UFC 155 card and do not want to pay for it...

http://www.thefirstrow.eu/sport/boxing-wwe-ufc.html

Nice link, been looking for one! Cheers

[Raskal]

Thanks mate looking forward to the big day in NBA and mma

Good luck

[davopnz]

like the picks except i think rockets will get a win today and i also would advise not touching the grizzlies...after watching their last game against philly, i will NEVER bet on this team again. how a so called tough team can only get 2 points in the paint in the 3rd quarter is laughable. what a bunch of big women, marc a little girl just like pau.

[prior22usaf]

Yes I still like it, and if you can get the -3 then all the better for you.

The Celtics have dropped eight of 10 on the road and their last four losses away from home have come at an average of 16.7 points per game

Celtic's 3-7 ATS last 10 games and 1-6 ATS last 7 road games.

Warriors have a great ATS record (16-7 last 23) when playing on no rest (back2back).

Put simply, the Warriors are hot and the C's most definitely are not. Yes the line is a bit suspicous considering Philly was -6.5 yesterday (from memory), as is the line movement (or lack thereof) however almost all NBA cappers are guilty of over analysing situations at some point or another and I have chosen to just keep this one simple.

[joco]

for ufc tonite im on wineland -120, miller/lauzon over 2.5 rounds, parlayed jds/miller, belcher -110...

was thinkin boetsch would win by decision also but i dont think im gonna put money on him


good luck on the card everybody

[Bostongambler]

gl Sal Bando

[thorny]

John Moraga def. Chris Cariaso by submission (guillotine choke)...had him down to win by KO/Submission