Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**sando** · 12-09-12, 11:16 PM

Stay focused. Long season. Keep grinding.

2-1 Today in the NBA +1.82 Units

NBA YTD 98-67-8 (+38.82 Units) 59.4%

(NBA ATS/ML 73-49-5 YTD) 59.8%

(NBA totals 25-18-3 YTD) 58.1%

*Every single calculation I made had this Laker total going under 206, but sometimes stats and numbers just don't apply in real life. Sigh...

_______________________________________

Rugby Sevens (Port Elizabeth SA)

Day 1

6-5 -2 Units

Day 2

8-7 +3.65 Units

Overall

14-12 +1.65 Units

All time SBR Picks

Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7(+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
MMA 3-0 (+20.23 Units)
MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units) *See spreadsheet

**Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.

**tblues2005** · 12-10-12, 12:00 AM

I must have missed your other picks Sando but I only had Orlando and that was it. At least I had a 1 1/2 unit winner.

**TBsp75** · 12-10-12, 12:13 AM

tough luck for the laker game. they're shooting 15/28 from 3 points and also had too many turnovers into fast break points.

**thorny** · 12-10-12, 12:31 AM

Sando, I tried PMing you, but I can't as a new member.

Been tailing you over the last week or so, you've been doing well on a rough patch.

I think I picked the worst period in your tipping to follow, should have been around when you were on Gold Coast Rugby Sevens

Anyway, I just wanted to say hi and that I will be posting as well and not just viewing.

I have been following you on Rugby and NBA, do you pick on any other sports? I have been trying my hand at NFL, seems to be easier to pick than NBA (hence why I started following you as I was struggling prior).

I notice you are from Adelaide? I'm from Brisbane myself.

Look forward to seeing more of your picks.

Thorny

**hjrozay** · 12-10-12, 01:24 AM

Congrats on today Sando, I followed on that Orlando pick.

Keep doing your thing. Your contributions are appreciated.

**Gusto0810** · 12-10-12, 01:44 AM

Great thread Sando! Good to see plenty of winning going on in here. I'll be checking in from now on.

I like the look of GSW -4 tomorrow.

**GrubyBob** · 12-10-12, 07:59 AM

Sando, could you continue writing this 'no more plays today' thing? Thanks a lot!

**ch1027** · 12-10-12, 10:24 AM

Thanks for all your work Sando!

**tblues2005** · 12-10-12, 02:26 PM

Sandi do you have plays today? Thanks for all you do.

**sando** · 12-10-12, 04:34 PM

NBA

Atlanta @ Miami
Miami -6.5 (-114 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*I think this is the first time I have played on Miami this year? I find the SouthEast division to be boring and without doubt spend the least time on it of all the divisions in the NBA. I reccomend buying the hook or PYOL down to -6.5, however if this is not an option, then the pick is still playable at -7, I just decided to play it safe on this one myself.

Toronto @ Portland
Toronto +3.5 (-108 Sportsbet) 1x

NBA Totals

SA @ Houston
Over 210 (-114 Pinnacle) 2x

GS @ Charlotte
Over 202 (-106 Pinnacle) 1x

**jooshoowa** · 12-10-12, 04:36 PM

over 210 for the spurs/rockets even with harden possibly out?

**wguan2** · 12-10-12, 04:36 PM

We're finally on the same sides lol. Lets hope that's a good thing.

**unitedlad** · 12-10-12, 05:05 PM

You still like the over if Harden is out?

**Celtics08** · 12-10-12, 05:15 PM

Harden out 100%?

**sando** · 12-10-12, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by unitedlad

You still like the over if Harden is out?

Originally posted by jooshoowa

over 210 for the spurs/rockets even with harden possibly out?

This is not breaking news. He rolled his ankle on Saturday against the Mavericks and was always going to struggle to play today. He is still listed as 50/50 and may play. Anyway it is Lin, not Harden who sets the tempo for Houston and when you are on the over in a game, it's all about tempo, i.e early shot clock opportunities and points per minute.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-10-12, 05:28 PM

Sando, what would you make the spread in the Miami game if the heat were actually playing with some form?

**sando** · 12-10-12, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

Sando, what would you make the spread in the Miami game if the heat were actually playing with some form?

Doubt it would be more than a point difference from what it is. Books love the Heat, they have ever since the "Big 3" took their talents to South Beach, which is why I rarely play on Miami. In fact so far this season the value has clearly been on Miami's opponents ATS, especially the dog's and I expect that to hold until at least after the A/S break when Miami may start getting serious again as they maneuver towards the appropriate seeding for the playoffs. The reason I do like Miami today is because they have had great success against the Hawks in recent times with the same core players on both teams (only Joe Johnson missing) and they are of course fierce division rivals which makes me believe that this bunch of spoilt brats in Miami will actually come to play today and show us their real capabilities as an offensive machine. Also the Hawks have clearly been playing slightly above their median level and Miami well below it. Law of averages, things even out over time. A loss here today and Miami would actually fall behind the Hawks in the SouthEast standings.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-10-12, 05:46 PM

Thanks mate

**usfunca** · 12-10-12, 06:19 PM

Thanks for the picks tonight, sando. GL

**davopnz** · 12-10-12, 06:23 PM

what makes you like the rockets/spurs over? it was 204 in san antonio where lin was a brick and harden was sinking all their shots.

like the over plays, definitely.

**BobbyD914** · 12-10-12, 06:32 PM

over up to 212...win or lose good call

**elPkay** · 12-10-12, 06:34 PM

Thanks again for all those picks.
Do you have the time to give us a quick answer on my question about bet/unit sizes a few posts back?

Had to take the O211 -119 at the Spurs game since I wasn't able to place my bets earlier. Still alright I hope

**thorny** · 12-10-12, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by sando

Toronto @ Portland
Toronto +3.5 (-108 Sportsbet) 1x

Sando, I'm following you on this, but are you worried with Raptor's current away form and record against Portland?

**king_danilo92** · 12-10-12, 06:58 PM

attention: DO NOT PICK THE RAPTORS. im a huge fan of them, they couldnt beat a middle school team right now. theyre awful. portland at home is solid -3.5.

**sando** · 12-10-12, 07:40 PM

Un-official NBA prop bet

Lamarcus Aldridge -7.5 pts and rbs v. Andrea Bargnani

Sportingbet/Centrebet -140, $1.71 I'm risking 2x to win approximately 1.4 Units

Just a simple spot bet looking to take advantage of the fact that Batum (16.4 pts, 5.8 rbs) is out, and Matthews (16 pts, 3.2 rbs) is most likely out as well. That is a lot of points and rebounds to cover and I have no doubt "the real Lamarcus Aldridge" will show up today. I actually think Toronto might win this game S/U, but regardless I expect LMA to put the team on his back as he has done constantly over the last 18 months and really put in work today.

*If you find similar LMA props at your book, for example LMA over ____ points, then I would play the over for no more than over 23 points max at -115 ish.

**Goat Milk** · 12-10-12, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by king_danilo92

attention: DO NOT PICK THE RAPTORS. im a huge fan of them, they couldnt beat a middle school team right now. theyre awful. portland at home is solid -3.5.

The best ncaa basketball team in the country would lose to Toronto by a minimum of 50 points.

**DudleyDawson** · 12-10-12, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

The best ncaa basketball team in the country would lose to Toronto by a minimum of 50 points.

are you being serious here?

**Tommy_de1st** · 12-10-12, 07:51 PM

Hey goatie, long time no hear.
How've you been bro?
You're right about Raptors, maybe not 50 but 30 for sure

**Goat Milk** · 12-10-12, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by DudleyDawson

are you being serious here?

yeah.

I'm good Tommy. Hope you and your fam are doing well.

**sando** · 12-10-12, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by elPkay

Very good!
What's your main reason for unit sizes for your picks? Is it the juice or mostly how safe you feel with a win? Why only 1 unit on the bulls play?

Originally posted by elPkay

Thanks again for all those picks.
Do you have the time to give us a quick answer on my question about bet/unit sizes a few posts back?

Had to take the O211 -119 at the Spurs game since I wasn't able to place my bets earlier. Still alright I hope

My unit range is 1-5. So far this season from memory we haven't had any picks over 3x and only 4-5 of those. As the season progresses we will no doubt start finding some 4x and possibly even 5x picks as more data is gathered and trends appear, and spot betting opportunities arise, etc. I assign units to each pick based on the percieved value they represent from a betting point of view. Not on the percieved strength of the pick. This difference is very important. We are talking someone who wants to win over the course of an NBA season (percieved value) vs. someone who just wants to win today (percieved strength). I do not care about winning or losing today, I care about finding +EV picks, knowing that to do so means I will have a very profitable season. Someone who randomly tails picks here and there and has lost more than they have won, I'm sorry, however it's not my problem. I'm in this for the long haul. Who knows, I may end up going 0-4 today. That doesn't mean the picks were bad or I don't have a clue about the NBA (as Daimoshokage loves to tell everyone), as it's all part of a far larger picture.

If you want anymore info regarding my style and methods, then go back a few pages where I did a MASSIVE write-up explaining step by step exactly how I make my selections.

**usfunca** · 12-10-12, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by sando

My unit range is 1-5. So far this season from memory we haven't had any picks over 3x and only 4-5 of those. As the season progresses we will no doubt start finding some 4x and possibly even 5x picks as more data is gathered and trends appear, and spot betting opportunities arise, etc. I assign units to each pick based on the percieved value they represent from a betting point of view. Not on the percieved strength of the pick. This difference is very important. We are talking someone who wants to win over the course of an NBA season (percieved value) vs. someone who just wants to win today (percieved strength). I do not care about winning or losing today, I care about finding +EV picks, knowing that to do so means I will have a very profitable season. Someone who randomly tails picks here and there and has lost more than they have won, I'm sorry, however it's not my problem. I'm in this for the long haul. Who knows, I may end up going 0-4 today. That doesn't mean the picks were bad or I don't have a clue about the NBA (as Daimoshokage loves to tell everyone), as it's all part of a far larger picture.

If you want anymore info regarding my style and methods, then go back a few pages where I did a MASSIVE write-up explaining step by step exactly how I make my selections.

Another stellar post. Makes me a little more upset when I miss a pick.

**Byrone09** · 12-10-12, 08:09 PM

Man, we were looking so good on Warriors/Bobcats over with 61 in the first quarter, and then they go and combine for 37 in the 2nd. Hoping for a strong offensive showing in the 2nd half!

**unitedlad** · 12-10-12, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by Byrone09

Man, we were looking so good on Warriors/Bobcats over with 61 in the first quarter, and then they go and combine for 37 in the 2nd. Hoping for a strong offensive showing in the 2nd half!

The pace is there. Just need Bobcats to make more shots. Ben Gordon is always good for a few 4Q triples as well.

**davopnz** · 12-10-12, 08:17 PM

any thoughts on kings +6.5 against the mavs?

**sando** · 12-10-12, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by davopnz

any thoughts on kings +6.5 against the mavs?

No Tyreke = No good IMO.