Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**Byrone09** · 12-13-12, 01:55 AM

I wouldn't lay off the totals, they've been pretty sharp up to today. A few bad totals is no reason to lay off. Spurs/Jazz would have hit if not for that game winner.

Goat has been pretty damn good at the prop bets lately if anyone is interested. He saved my ass today, I didn't get the Twolves win but luckily I pushed buying the line down from 3.5 to 3 so I was -2.5x here. Funny how he gets a lot of Heat for some past seasons, lots of hating in that thread.

Only 3 games to analyze tomorrow so you can take it easy tomorrow!

**sando** · 12-13-12, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by Byrone09

I wouldn't lay off the totals, they've been pretty sharp up to today. A few bad totals is no reason to lay off. Spurs/Jazz would have hit if not for that game winner.

Goat has been pretty damn good at the prop bets lately if anyone is interested. He saved my ass today, I didn't get the Twolves win but luckily I pushed buying the line down from 3.5 to 3 so I was -2.5x here. Funny how he gets a lot of Heat for some past seasons, lots of hating in that thread.

Only 3 games to analyze tomorrow so you can take it easy tomorrow!

GOAT has a brilliant NBA mind, best match up analysis going around. It saddens me how many idiots have invaded his thread with all the negative crap. Anyway thanks for the support mate.

Originally posted by TC Woods

Who cares if Homosausage is correct... just a SBR staffer stirring up controversy

Keep killin it Sando

How did you find out Daimo works for SBR mate?

Originally posted by Bbr

Bulls come up big sando!!! haha Only had one play today and it was an easy cash. What do you have brewing tmrw. Im think Knicks/Lakers 1H over. Not taking the full total because knicks are capable of clamping down on D in the fourth.

The Doc is as sharp as one of his own scalpels. Still contemplating tomorrow ATM, get back to you shortly.

**aussieH** · 12-13-12, 04:14 AM

Take the Aussies in the test tomorrow in a multi with best bet

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-13-12, 04:16 AM

I took the under straight away in the Bulls game when I saw it at 180.5 after what you told me last time.

As for the 2 overs, they both could have hit as both games were close to going to OT.

Keep it up man, things are about to get hectic.
I am not sure how you are going to be able to grind your tips out when Jan/Feb comes around:

Tennis - Aus Open
Union - Super 15 and Sevens
Basketball - NBA

Not enough hours in the day!!

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-13-12, 04:17 AM

Originally posted by aussieH

Take the Aussies in the test tomorrow in a multi with best bet

Aren't they too short?
Sri Lanka are no mugs and they look tasty at $7.50 for the win.

**MTM** · 12-13-12, 04:42 AM

Aussies the public bet but they have the better bowling unit for Australian pitches... Just need to make some runs. Odds too short, Sri Lanka wont win. No bet

**aussieH** · 12-13-12, 04:47 AM

Sri Lanka never won in Australia in a test match. Only rain could save them

**MTM** · 12-13-12, 04:49 AM

You're very patriotic. Just don't go all in

**ender749** · 12-13-12, 04:52 AM

I think Aus win is still good value.
* SL have 0% chance to win (their bowling is the worst to reach the Australian shores imo).
* The SL batting is weak against fast bowling (they recently lost to NZ at home).
* Their record abroad is terrible - they are especially bad starters in seaming conditions - almost always losing the first test.
* SL have had only one three day warm up match here in Aus.
* The weather forecast is for showers / cloudy conditions - this is a double edged sword as it will make batting difficult but we will lose time obviously.
* Hobart pitch is extremely seam friendly - in the 3 Sheffield Shield games this season, the totals in the first innings for the team batting first have been 112, 95 and 67. It will be better than that for the test match but expect the ball to move around quite a bit. Also Hobart record in the last ten years has only produced two draws in 10 games.

I have put down the equivalent of 3 units on a Aus win - would put more but worried about weather. There is also a small chance that Sanga or Jayawardane hit a big one but unlikely given conditions.

PS I live in the UK but am originally from India and cricket is in my blood.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-13-12, 04:53 AM

Malinga just took 6 for 7 last night....

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-13-12, 04:55 AM

Nice analysis ender - thanks

**aussieH** · 12-13-12, 05:02 AM

Great cricket analysis above. Welcome aboard. Malinga only plays t20 these days

**gopolks** · 12-13-12, 05:04 AM

Malinga doesnt play tests? whats the weather for, a draw could be an option?

**ender749** · 12-13-12, 05:24 AM

Malinga is class, sad for SL he doesn't play tests anymore.

**ender749** · 12-13-12, 05:24 AM

I've been following the weather reports and I think there will be plenty of time - in fact wickets should fall in a heap if its cloudy. :-D

**Mase of Base** · 12-13-12, 05:29 AM

On the cricket, weather forecast doesn't look flash but the might only need 3 days with the way that wicket looks it's GREEN! Wouldn't be surprised to see the side batting first to be all out and bowling with twenty odd overs to go on day one, especially if Australia win the toss and send Sri Lanka in.

**ender749** · 12-13-12, 05:54 AM

cricket is good.

waiting for Sando's NBA pick - this gonna be a good one - can feel it.

**kenz** · 12-13-12, 05:57 AM

Originally posted by sando

Dahomosausage is right however, I did get belted on the totals today. Gonna lay of the NBA totals a bit until I sharpen things up as I missed badly on both the Griz and Spurs totals today. Turns out to be a wasted day which is very frustrating after going 4-1 ATS. Yep definitely gonna lay off the totals for the time being and just stick with ATS bets until we get back into winning mode. Been "treading water" for two weeks now, stuck in the damn 30's (units won). Working on a big play for tommorow, will put it up as soon as possible.

Sando you are a great capper and a gem in this forum. You are one of the reasons why I opened an account at this forum. I follow your posts everyday, the earliest games are at 2. A.M. in my local time. I am married but I am awake until you post some plays, so unfortunately sometimes I go to bed after my lovely wife and someimes I lose sleep

So you should know I am a LOYAL follower.

But I only play your ATSs, and it is not your fault but sometimes because of "Vegas", sometimes because of a "feeling" I buy points and take the lines 1 or 2 points to be safer.

I love your ATSs you are A+ ATS capper but I dont think you are as successful at totals as you are at ATSs, I am not saying your bad you are not as successful which is something you admit from time to time.. And this is not a bad thing at all, this game is as complicated as it is and you are one hell of an analiser and ATS capper. Even if you only played overs at 215 total games and under at 180 point games you will be at positive units as a totalscapper, as you mentioned in earlier posts these extreme totals mean something. Thanks for sharing that, since I used this info, I am yet to lose on totals.

I think you will be better at totals after some time off.

I respect you man, for the time you put here and being the good guy. Today I will also tail the ones I like the most as I have been tailing for past month and needless to say I am on positive units.

GL Sando, Keep killing it

**Bbr** · 12-13-12, 07:21 AM

Haha too kind sando. But seriously anything I touch on bet365 is moving. Bulls yesterday, and I literally put half a unit on the bobcats and the line moved almost immediately! =o

**Catchn_Picks** · 12-13-12, 08:59 AM

Congrats to all!

**killersweet** · 12-13-12, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by ender749

Malinga is class, sad for SL he doesn't play tests anymore.

He has too much commitment. He plays in IPL and some people in the SL cricket board don’t like him much. So much politics. </SPAN>

**tblues2005** · 12-13-12, 10:58 AM

Keep up the good work Sando and I know totals can be tough no doubt. I think that is the hardest thing in basketball is totals no doubt. I would put more units on the sides and lower units on the totals. That is how I would do this. But overall you are still doing well and I look forward to your picks tonight and Friday. Friday and Saturday looks like a real busy day in the NBA so I know you have a lot of work to do.

**Celtics08** · 12-13-12, 12:10 PM

Matthews and Batum still out?

**NBA Maniac** · 12-13-12, 12:13 PM

First of all, Sando congratz on your excellent job capping NBA

Do you think we can get NYK -6 ?

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 12-13-12, 12:21 PM

Gonna keep an eye on this thread.

Nice work Sando.

**NBA Maniac** · 12-13-12, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by NBA Maniac

First of all, Sando congratz on your excellent job capping NBA

Do you think we can get NYK -6 ?

Now i see NYK -6, should i wait to see if i can get NYK -5.5, or i am beeing greedy ??

**tblues2005** · 12-13-12, 01:15 PM

I think that line may go up above 6. I would buy it to 5.5.

**No coincidences** · 12-13-12, 01:19 PM

Keep up the good work pal.

**notoriouz** · 12-13-12, 02:02 PM

Keep killing it Sando

**MakinItHappen** · 12-13-12, 02:08 PM

What do you think of over 14.5 points JR Smith @ 2.00 Sando? Considering his 3 point prowess and the amount of times he gets fouled etc, that is a really low points total for him to make in a big game, don't you think?

**sando** · 12-13-12, 03:33 PM

Good morning/evening everyone. First some plays and then I will answer all the questions and thanks everyone for the support and the kind messages, I really appreciate it. Lastly I will update my record (4-4 yesterday - Aprox even on the day).

There are only 3 games today and I am going to play two of them. The reason the plays are so late is because I have been trying to talk myself out of both of them and I am unable to do so, so they will be plays and it simply a matter of finding the correct unit values.

I have a ton of reasoning for both plays floating around in my head and seeing as it is such a small card today I will do a complete write-up for both picks, which I will start working on immediately after the plays are done. (5 minutes).

NBA

LA Lakers @ NY Knicks
Knicks -6 (-103 Pinnacle) 2.5x

*Most of the money so far has come in for the Lakers which is great for us as it has bought the line down to -6 and made this play a lot more appealing (Was looking at 1.5x at -7). Ok first let's talk about the Lakers and then some stats and lastly we'll talk about the Knickerbockers.
Lakers - LA is a dangerous team that must be respected at all times regardless of what people are saying. Any team that has both Kobe and D12 on the same team is capable of beating any NBA team even on their home court, however obviously the Lakers form and momentum is terrible ATM but what does concern me is all of this public pressure that has created an "Us against the world" mentality. Kobe thrives on this negativity and and I have no doubt they will turn things around sooner, rather than later. This is a desperate team ATM, things are not rosy in La La land, however if any team is used to intense pressure from the public and media it is the Lakers. I expect them to pull of some big 'upsets' soon but I do not believe it will be tonight and I will explain why.

Knicks are 8-0 at home this year (7-1 ATS).
Knicks average home winning margin is 14.12 ppg.
Knicks 28-6 ATS last 34 home games.
Lakers 5-12 ATS last 17 road games.
Lakers are a surprising 5-16 ATS against the Eastern conference in recent times. (Surprising as the EC is significantly weaker than the West last 2 years).
Lakers are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 games against winning teams (60%)
Knicks 13-8 ATS this year. Lakers are 9-13.

Knicks - The Knicks are currently the best team in the East. They employ a high powered offence and a surprisingly efficient defence. Tonight D'Antoni returns to NY, so do you really think Carmello and the boys will know be prepared for the Lakers style/gameplan. D'antoni has a very unique and specific coaching style and apart from minor gameplan tweaks, the Knicks have "been there, done that".
This is rather significant that the Knicks are familiar with D'antoni's style as for example, under D'antoni the guards leak out up the court when an opponent takes a shot (instead of boxing out for the rebound) looking to create easy opportunities in transition. This is quite relevant against a team like NY who take a lot of long jump shots (the longer the shot, the longer the rebound) as normally their would be more rebounds available to the opponents guards, who you would assume are boxing out the Knicks guards for those rebounds. There are not too many ways the Lakers can catch the Knicks off guard tonight. The Lakers offensive style is supposed to be fluid and without set parameters but rather to react to the defensive set that is put against them. Many teams have successfully been forcing the Lakers away from the post and into long jump shots and 3-pointers and why would the Knicks not employ the same strategy when the Lakers have little chance of beating the Knicks in a 3-point shoot out. Plus the Knicks have the added bonus of the reigning DPOY Chandler in the paint, not only the perfect match-up to foil Howard, but also to execute the strategy mentioned above. Notice the total of this game is still set @ 205+ despite the Knicks being a very solid defensive team at home. Un-likely anyone from either team will stop Kobe or Carmello, they will both get their 25+ and should kind of cancel each other out, in the same manner as Chandler and Dwight, but it's guys like Felton and JR Smith who can really do damage without any obvious options to guard them efficiently on the Lakers list.

At the end of the day while I do expect the Lakers to get things back on track soon even without Nash and Gasol, it's awfully hard to imagine they will do so tonight against the Knick's who are 8-0 at home this year, 7-1 ATS (the only ATS loss coming against Phoenix - yes that game) and match-up quite nicely against the Lakers (mainly because Chandler is one of the only players in the NBA who can hang with D12) and they are familiar with the Lakers coach and his gameplan and unique offensive style.

SA @ Portland
Spurs -6.5 (-110 Pinnacle) 2x

TRD Collaboration play. YTD 1-1.

*If you can only get -7 at your book, I would consider buy the hook or PYOL for no worse than -117 ($1.85). Otherwise I would consider rolling with the -7 for 1.5x (instead of 2x)

Portland's starting 5 is probably top 3 in the league, and as a unit they are the highest scoring starting 5 in the NBA. Without doubt they are on par or possibly even better than SA's starting 5, however Batum, Matthews and Lillard are all injured and in doubt for today. It is my understanding that Matthews won't play, Lillard will and Batum is 50/50. Regardless they will most likely struggle as these guys are constantly having to log heavy minutes when healthy, let alone when not 100% and their will be no respite when The Spurs starters leave the game as their bench is just as dangerous, take a look at this.

SA 2nd string. NPortland 2nd string.
pg - Mills/De Colo. pg - Nolan Smith
sg - Manu Ginobli. sg - Will Barton
sf - (Leonard/Jackson) injured. sf - Victor Claver
pf - Bonner/Diaw.n pf - Jared Jeffries
c - Tiago Splitter. c - Myers Leonard

Ok let's be honest, how many of those Portland players have you even heard of? This San Antonio second unit nearly beat the Heat in Miami. Portland has the weakest bench in the NBA and is injury hit, further reducing their depth. The difference is massive, like an NBA team playing a D-League team. The Spurs 3rd string p/g (Mills) is Australia's best player by far and could start for half a dozen other NBA teams.

**tblues2005** · 12-13-12, 03:38 PM

I will be looking forward to them Sando. My suggestion to you is to put lower units on totals than sides. That will help your units.

**ShotgunRua** · 12-13-12, 03:40 PM

Thanks Sando, always appreciate your efforts!

**RetardStrength** · 12-13-12, 03:52 PM

Sando, I'm with you on the Knicks. All of this crap about Kobe in MSG, David Stern influence, etc... I don't buy any of it. Melo is an MVP candidate early this season and the Knickerbockers look great as a team. The Lakers are lost... I'm not sure how people expect some amazing outcome tonight when the Lakers refuse to play defense against the lesser teams in the NBA. The Knicks will have more desire to bury the big name Lakers, and keep that lever in the down position, flushing them down the toilet...

I hope Kobe does show up tonight at MSG. Look at the Lakers record when he takes 30 shots and puts up 40 points..........LOL

**Celtics08** · 12-13-12, 03:53 PM

Knicks will win by exact 7 points tonight